Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely watching Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, but expectations for hints of an imminent rate cut from the Federal Reserve may be disappointed. The consensus is that the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's rate decision will be announced on Wednesday at 2 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Powell [2] - After this week's meeting, the Fed has three policy meetings left this year, with officials indicating a median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025 [3] - The pricing of federal funds futures shows that investors have assigned a probability of over 60% for a rate cut in September [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Powell may choose to maintain operational flexibility until the economic trajectory and policy path become clearer, especially with significant economic data set to be released before the September meeting [4] - The upcoming meetings will see policymakers reviewing two employment reports and additional inflation, spending, and housing data [3] Group 3: Opposition Votes and Internal Dynamics - If the Fed continues to describe the labor market as "robust," it may provoke dissent from officials concerned about the weakening job market [5] - If two Fed governors vote against the policy decision, it would mark the first time since 1993 that two governors have opposed a decision [5] Group 4: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell is likely to be questioned about his interpretation of recent inflation data, particularly regarding tariffs and their impact on prices [6] - Some officials express concern that tariffs may have a more lasting impact on inflation, despite some price increases already being observed [7][8] Group 5: Political Pressures - The press conference may address various topics, including the Fed's renovation project and whether political pressures influence policy-making [9] - Powell may also need to respond to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's suggestion regarding a review of the Fed's non-monetary policy functions [9]

尽管投资者将仔细研读鲍威尔周四凌晨的发言，希望找到美联储即将降息的蛛丝马迹，但他们可能会失望。 外界普遍预计，政策制定者在7月议息会议结束时，将连续第五次维持利率不变。一名或多名官员的反对票可能释放信 号：联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）部分成员更倾向于尽早降息，而非推迟。 但由于9月下次会议前将有大量经济数据公布，美联储主席可能选择保留政策选项，直至经济方向和政策路径更清晰。 "毫无疑问，FOMC将维持利率不变，"银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔·纳尔逊（Bill Nelson） 周二在报告中称。这位前美联储高级经济学家表示："问题在于，他们是否会传递出更倾向于9月降息的信号。" 美国总统特朗普仍在不断呼吁降息。鲍威尔肯定还会被问及美联储耗资25亿美元的办公楼翻新项目——这已成为共和党 攻击美联储的靶子。 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布利率决议，鲍威尔将在30分钟后召开会后新闻发布会。 9月展望 本周会议后，美联储今年仅剩三次政策会议。6月时，美联储官员的中位数预测显示，2025年将降息两次（每次25个基 点）。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克（Veronica ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in U.S. inflation as indicated by the June CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in the previous month, primarily driven by a rebound in energy prices. The Federal Reserve may need more time to assess the situation before making further decisions on interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact global financial markets in the second half of the year [1][19]. Inflation Data Summary - The June CPI year-on-year increase is 2.7%, compared to a previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.6%. The month-on-month increase is 0.3%, up from 0.1% previously [2][3]. - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly up from 2.8% previously, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5][15]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI increased to 3.17% year-on-year, up from 3.03%, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [5][6]. Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rebounding significantly. The impact of retail gasoline prices, which typically lag behind crude oil price fluctuations, is expected to continue into July [3][5]. - Food prices remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, driven by a rise in household food prices [5]. Core Goods and Services - Core goods prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with various categories such as furniture and appliances showing significant increases. However, prices for clothing and vehicles remain below trend lines [10][11]. - Core services saw a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with super core services (excluding housing) also showing a rebound, indicating some recovery in demand [15][16]. Impact of Tariffs - The article highlights that tariffs are beginning to show an impact on inflation, but the effect is currently moderate. The expected overall impact of tariffs on inflation is estimated to be around 80 basis points [17][18]. - Companies are employing various strategies to mitigate tariff costs, including price adjustments, renegotiating with suppliers, and diversifying supply chains [14][18]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider the moderate inflation impact and the weakening job market before making decisions on interest rate cuts. The consensus is leaning towards a potential rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year [17][20]. - Recent comments from key Fed officials suggest a more dovish stance, indicating that even if inflation rises due to tariffs, it may not delay rate cuts [20]. Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market has shown mixed performance, with technology stocks benefiting from certain market expectations, while financial stocks have faced adjustments due to disappointing earnings reports [21].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding expectations of 2.6% and up from 2.4% in the previous month [1] - Core CPI for June increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but slightly higher than the previous value of 2.8% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is estimated at 62%, with expectations of nearly two cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 2: Smartphone Market in China - In Q2 2025, China's smartphone market shipments declined by 4% year-on-year, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments at 69 million units [3] - Huawei regained the top position with 12.5 million units shipped, holding an 18.1% market share, while other major brands like Vivo, OPPO, and Apple saw declines in shipments [3][4] - The decline in shipments is attributed to cautious market sentiment and the end of government subsidies, leading manufacturers to reduce inventory pressure [4] Group 3: Local Asset Management Companies - The Financial Regulatory Bureau released new regulations for local asset management companies (AMCs) to clarify business scope and improve risk management [5][6] - The regulations aim to prevent AMCs from engaging in activities that could increase financial risks, such as facilitating new hidden debts [7] - The focus is on ensuring AMCs serve local economies effectively while adhering to defined operational boundaries [6][7] Group 4: Geely's Acquisition of Zeekr - Geely announced the acquisition of all remaining shares of Zeekr, with a total cash consideration of approximately $2.399 billion [8] - Zeekr is projected to achieve revenues of 75.913 billion yuan in 2024, a 46.9% increase year-on-year, while its net loss is expected to narrow by 29.9% [8] - The acquisition is part of Geely's strategy to consolidate its electric vehicle brands and reduce internal competition [9] Group 5: Apple’s Foldable iPhone Development - Apple has decided to use Samsung's display technology for its first foldable iPhone, moving away from in-house development due to slow progress [10][11] - The foldable iPhone is expected to enter production by late 2025, with Samsung providing the core display components [10] - This shift reflects Apple's cautious approach to emerging technologies and the need to maintain its competitive edge in the market [11] Group 6: Sam's Club Brand Strategy - Sam's Club has introduced mainstream brands like Haoliyou and Weilong, causing dissatisfaction among members who expect unique product offerings [12][13] - The expansion of Sam's Club is projected to increase the number of stores significantly, with sales exceeding 5 billion USD in some locations [13] - Consumer reactions indicate that even with branding adjustments, acceptance of mainstream products may take time, challenging Sam's Club's brand positioning [14] Group 7: A-Share Market Trends - As of June 2025, the total number of A-share investors surpassed 240 million, with a significant increase in individual investors [15] - The market is transitioning towards a more mature structure, with a decline in individual investor holdings and an increase in institutional participation [16] - Recent market activity shows a lack of clear trends, with various sectors experiencing mixed performance amid ongoing adjustments [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from Brown Brothers Harriman suggests skepticism regarding the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data's reflection of tariff impacts on inflation, indicating that the inflationary pressure from rising tariffs remains moderate [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tariff Impact - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has increased from 2.4% in January to 20.6% as of July 14, marking the highest level since 1910 [1] Inflation Concerns - The potential for stagflation remains a significant concern, which is identified as a major factor dragging down the U.S. dollar [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. market, with a focus on the upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that is expected to show a significant increase in prices due to tariffs [1][3][4] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - The market anticipates a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the June CPI, a notable acceleration from May's 0.1% [1][3] - Core CPI is also expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, matching the overall CPI expectation [1][4] - Year-over-year core CPI is projected to be in the range of 2.8% to 3.1% [1] Group 2: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the impact of tariffs to become more pronounced in the second half of the year, with differing views on whether this will lead to sustained inflation pressure [3][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a core CPI increase of 0.23% for June, slightly below market consensus, and anticipates a core CPI annual increase of 3.1% by December 2025, excluding tariff effects [4] - Wells Fargo suggests that while inflation may rise, it is not alarming enough to concern Federal Reserve officials at this stage [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market has already priced in an average tariff rate increase of about 10%, according to Deutsche Bank [6] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the risk-reward for the CPI data leans towards an upside surprise, but significant market reactions may not occur until the next month [8] - The S&P 500 index is expected to react variably based on the core CPI growth, with potential declines if the growth exceeds certain thresholds [8]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports the idea of considering a rate cut in July, stating that current monetary policy is "too tight" and that tariffs have not significantly increased inflation, which could justify a rate reduction [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market that may influence the Fed's decision to delay rate cuts [1] - There is a division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of potential rate cuts, with some members suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term or not severe, while others believe that inflation risks still exist [4] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Alberto M. Musalem expressed uncertainty about the long-term effects of tariffs on inflation, emphasizing that the determination of consumer costs and the impact on intermediate goods will take time to assess [2] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that tariffs might have a one-time effect on inflation, and she anticipates that the Fed may consider two rate cuts this year, with September being a potential opportunity [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 93.3% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in July, while there is a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 64.5% probability of a cut in September [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with San Francisco Fed President Daly suggesting that tariffs may not have a lasting effect on inflation [1][2] - Daly believes that some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which may prevent significant price increases for consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is in good shape, with growth and consumer spending slowing but not weakening, and inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized the need for caution regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, stating that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest [2][3] - Musalem noted that while the impact of tariffs on inflation has not been significant so far, it is expected to become more apparent in the coming months [2] - There is a growing internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a potential cut in July while others remain cautious [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent FOMC meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions, primarily influenced by differing opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A majority of officials lean towards a potential interest rate cut later this year, but there is a notable faction that believes current inflation levels are still far from the 2% target, which does not justify an immediate rate cut [3]. - The FOMC has maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with 10 out of 19 officials predicting two rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe there will be no cuts until 2025 [3]. Economic Data and Risks - Current economic data has not provided sufficient signals for action, with ongoing risks related to inflation and a weak labor market [5]. - There is a lack of consensus on the impact of tariffs, with opinions ranging from minimal effects to concerns about long-term implications [5]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a likelihood of rate cuts in September and December, as investors await key economic indicators such as CPI and unemployment rates [7]. - The Federal Reserve is also considering enhancing policy communication strategies to clarify its economic forecasts and analyses [7]. Overall Sentiment - The prevailing sentiment among Federal Reserve officials is one of caution, emphasizing patience over aggressive action in response to economic data [8].

Group 1 - The new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazil and other countries are significantly higher than previous levels, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff starting August 1, 2025, compared to the earlier 10% [3][4] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to address perceived unfair trade relationships, particularly highlighting a trade deficit with Brazil, which Trump claims is unsustainable [3][5] - Brazil's government has responded by stating that the increased tariffs are unjustified and could harm the U.S. economy, emphasizing that Brazil has a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has identified Brazil, along with five other countries, as "global swing states," which are crucial in shaping future geopolitical dynamics [5] - The report suggests that the U.S. should strengthen cooperation with these swing states to maintain the current international order, which is undergoing significant changes [5] - Trade experts note that countries like Brazil have expressed strong opposition to U.S. tariff policies, indicating a targeted approach by the Trump administration in its trade negotiations [5][6] Group 3 - Following the announcement of new tariffs, U.S. stock indices showed minimal volatility, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing slight increases [6] - The Philippines, one of the countries affected by the new tariffs, exported approximately $14.1 billion worth of goods to the U.S. last year, indicating its importance as a trade partner [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal differing opinions among officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing they will have a lasting effect [11]