Group 1 - The new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazil and other countries are significantly higher than previous levels, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff starting August 1, 2025, compared to the earlier 10% [3][4] - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy to address perceived unfair trade relationships, particularly highlighting a trade deficit with Brazil, which Trump claims is unsustainable [3][5] - Brazil's government has responded by stating that the increased tariffs are unjustified and could harm the U.S. economy, emphasizing that Brazil has a trade surplus with the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) has identified Brazil, along with five other countries, as "global swing states," which are crucial in shaping future geopolitical dynamics [5] - The report suggests that the U.S. should strengthen cooperation with these swing states to maintain the current international order, which is undergoing significant changes [5] - Trade experts note that countries like Brazil have expressed strong opposition to U.S. tariff policies, indicating a targeted approach by the Trump administration in its trade negotiations [5][6] Group 3 - Following the announcement of new tariffs, U.S. stock indices showed minimal volatility, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing slight increases [6] - The Philippines, one of the countries affected by the new tariffs, exported approximately $14.1 billion worth of goods to the U.S. last year, indicating its importance as a trade partner [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal differing opinions among officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing they will have a lasting effect [11]

Core Viewpoint - The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve indicate increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlook, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - Some officials believe that a weakening labor market or slight, temporary inflation pressure from tariffs could justify rate cuts later this year [1][2]. - Despite the potential for rate cuts, many officials feel that the current interest rate level is not significantly above the neutral rate, suggesting any adjustments may be limited [2][6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The minutes highlight significant uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and persistence of tariffs' impact on inflation, with some officials believing tariffs will have a more lasting effect [1][3]. - Economists generally expect tariffs to raise inflation and hinder economic growth, although current economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs [3][4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set to be released on July 15, is anticipated to provide further insights into inflation trends [3]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Policy Caution - Most officials view the overall U.S. economy as stable, allowing for a patient approach to interest rate adjustments, despite some localized weakness in the job market [6]. - The minutes indicate that while uncertainty around inflation and economic outlook has decreased, a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments is still warranted [6]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding the regular evaluation of the Fed's policy framework and potential enhancements to communication tools, including adjustments to the quarterly economic projections [6].

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 5 basis points (BP) to 4.23%, marking a two-month low, down 19 BP from the end of May and nearly 35 BP from the end of 2024 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 3.72%, significantly down 52 BP from the 4.24% level at the end of 2024, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds widening by 17 BP in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - In the first quarter, uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies and a slowing U.S. economy heightened risk aversion, leading investors to flock to Treasuries, causing yields to decline. However, a sharp sell-off occurred in early April as hedge funds reduced leverage, raising liquidity concerns in the Treasury market [4] - Optimism in the market improved in June due to effective trade negotiations, while persistent low inflation reignited investor confidence in potential rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with most traders anticipating a reduction to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns that tariffs could raise inflation but indicated that if inflation remains controlled, rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later. He refrained from specifying a particular meeting for potential rate adjustments [4] - The general consensus among economists is that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with upcoming inflation data expected to reflect the true trend of price increases [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on National Debt - The U.S. Senate approved a procedural vote for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exceeding the House version by approximately $800 billion. The current national debt stands at $36.2 trillion [6] - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the bill would increase the debt burden and undermine the U.S.'s global standing, with actual debt growth potentially exceeding $4 trillion due to temporary tax cuts and expanded borrowing [7] Group 5: Future Debt Challenges - Apollo economists highlighted that inflation risks and a growing budget deficit are likely to exert upward pressure on Treasury yields in both the short and long term. The Treasury will need to refinance $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, with rising debt repayment costs [7]

【导读】 美联储博斯蒂克维持今年一次降息展望，美股震荡上涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，7月开始了！希望这个月对咱们基民股民都好一点，一起关注一下海内外的市场消息。 美联储降息新消息 6月30日，亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长拉斐尔·博斯蒂克表示，关税可能会对价格产生渐进式影响，而不是一次性冲击，这可能导 致对通胀的上行压力更为持久。 博斯蒂克在一场活动上表示： "这种风险会渗透到消费者和企业领导者的心理上。" 博斯蒂克表示，他在今年的预测中只写入了一次降息，2026年则预计有三次降息，但他也表示这些预测存在高度不确定性。 博斯蒂克重申，目前没有足够的信息可以支撑调整利率的决定。他补充说，美联储拥有等待更多信息的"奢侈"，因为美国劳动力 市场仍然表现稳健。 美联储官员之间已经出现了分歧，主要集中在如何看待关税对通胀的影响。 本月早些时候美联储政策会议发布的预测显示，有10位官员认为应当忽略关税带来的价格影响，预计今年至少会降息两次。但有 7位官员预计今年不会降息，显示他们更担心关税可能导致更持久的价格压力。 两位美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼表示，如果通胀保持温和，他们将支持最快7月就降息。但许多官员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, suggests that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, with the first potentially occurring in September, while cautioning about the lagging effects of tariffs on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Kashkari has not adjusted his interest rate forecast for 2025 since December of last year [1] - He believes there is a possibility of two rate cuts this year, with the first likely in September [1] - Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is currently insufficient evidence to show that tariffs have impacted prices [1] - Kashkari expresses concern that there may still be a potential impact on inflation later this year due to tariffs [1]

对于鲍威尔的如此表态，美国总统川子实在是忍不住了，据媒体报道，已有三到四位候选人可能接替鲍威尔担任下任美联储主席。主要候选人包 括前美联储理事沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、现任美联储理事沃勒以及美国财政部长贝森特。从概率来看沃勒的可能性最大。一旦新 的人选出炉，那必然是符合川子的要求的，市场的焦点也将自动转移。 另外，今天晚上即将公布的当周初请失业金人数，以及美国5月耐用品订单等数据都非常值得关注。 贵金属方面 国际金价昨天触底反弹，但是从力度来看着实有点弱，日内波动也就20多美金，最终收出一根小阳线。 不过今天来看还是延续了昨天的反弹态势，我们目前需要关注的是这个态势能维持多久，毕竟大周期还是高点不断下移的结构。 隔夜美联储主席鲍威尔再次出席了参议院的证词演说，他强调，美国经济很强劲，当前的高关税没有现代先例，对通胀影响可能比预期大、也可 能比预期小，因此美联储不急于行动；关税对通胀的影响会在未来几个月显现，合理的预期是，关税将造成一定程度的通胀；但只要达成贸易协 议，是可以降息的。（按8月底是关税谈判的最后期限这个时间推算，降息最快也在9月） 同时他说，消费者可能要承担部分关税，很难提前预测，联储仍 ...

各位朋友们，大家好！ 最近鲍威尔开了一场"听证会专场演出"，地点在华盛顿，观众是美国国会众议院金融服务委员会的议员 们。你说这帮人平时也不怎么听人讲话，偏偏鲍威尔一张嘴，全场都开始认真做笔记，为啥？因为这哥 们一句话能让美股跳水、美元翻红、债券飙升，堪比金融界的"嘴替天王"。 鲍威尔还说："我们对'关税对物价影响小'这件事，持完全开放态度。"翻成一下就是："你说对也行，你 说不对也行，反正到时候我看数据说话。" 这次，大家最关心的问题就是：7月份你到底降不降息啊？结果鲍威尔一开口……直接来了个"我不说， 但我也不否认"。他说："很多路径都有可能。" 不过别急着失望，他还是透露了一点点"内幕"。他说，如果接下来的数据告诉我们：通胀其实没那么 猛，劳动力市场也开始累了，那美联储就可能提前降息！ 讲到这里大家可能要问了：那关税呢？你不是说最近美国加了不少关税，搞不好会推高通胀吗？ 鲍威尔表示：确实，我们之前这么想，所以先按兵不动。但他又补了一句金句："如果6月、7月的数据 出来，我们发现关税没想象中那么有杀伤力，那我们也不排除'提前开降'。" 简单翻译一下：我们先假设通胀会上来，但要是没上来……那我们就当没事发生， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July but indicated that it is more likely to wait until at least September to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [1][4][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell emphasized that many paths are possible regarding interest rates, suggesting that inflation may not be as strong as anticipated, which could lead to an earlier rate cut [1][3]. - He stated that if inflation pressures are indeed controlled, the Fed would act quickly to cut rates, but he refrained from specifying a particular meeting for such a decision [7][22]. - Powell noted that the majority of FOMC members believe a rate cut later this year is appropriate, but the economic outlook remains uncertain [9][10]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Powell reiterated that tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on prices during June, July, and August, and if the expected impact does not materialize, it would serve as a lesson for the Fed [2][5]. - He mentioned that at least some of the tariff costs will be borne by consumers over time, indicating a shift in who absorbs these costs [25]. - Powell maintained an open attitude towards the possibility that the impact of tariffs on inflation could be less than expected, which would have substantial implications for monetary policy [1][11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that the labor market shows no signs of weakness, and as long as the economy remains strong, there is no urgency to cut rates [22][23]. - He expressed concerns about the sustainability of the federal budget and debt growth, warning that prolonged inaction could lead to more severe consequences [61][62]. - Powell projected that the U.S. economy would slow down this year, partly due to immigration issues, and he expressed skepticism about the immediate productivity benefits of AI [31][32]. Group 4: Financial Stability and Regulation - Powell highlighted that while the commercial real estate (CRE) situation is improving, it remains a risk that needs monitoring [47][49]. - He noted that the Fed is on track with its balance sheet reduction and has room to continue this process for some time [56][57]. - Powell stated that the Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining credibility in controlling inflation, emphasizing that political factors should not influence monetary policy decisions [50][53].

智通财经APP获悉，尽管部分官员表示支持7月就降息，但美联储主席鲍威尔周二早些时候在国会作证 时强调，美联储不急于降息，他和同僚们正在观察经济对包括关税在内的各项新政策的反应。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里指出，尽管近期通胀数据"相当乐观"，但美联储在调整政策前需 要更清楚地了解关税对价格的影响。 美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示，他预计关税将推高通胀，并支持对利率调整采取观望态度。 巴尔在为堪萨斯城联储在奥马哈举办的活动准备的讲话稿中指出，当前美国经济基础稳固，失业率处于 低位，通胀已回落至美联储2%的目标附近。 他表示，"但展望未来，我预计通胀将因关税而上升，""短期通胀预期走高、供应链调整以及第二轮效 应可能导致通胀持续高企。" 美国总统特朗普已对数十个美国贸易伙伴加征新关税，但具体税率已多次调整。其政府正在谈判的贸易 协议可能带来更多变化。 巴尔认为，这些关税可能导致经济放缓和失业率上升，但他同时强调政策及其影响存在较大不确定 性。"当前的货币政策立场使我们能够耐心观察经济形势发展，"他补充道。 "过去两三个月我们获得的通胀数据相当积极，表明我此前描述的通胀回落路径正在实现，"卡什卡里周 二在威斯康星 ...

美联储卡什卡利：美联储目前处于观望状态，以期获得关税对通胀影响的更多明确性。 ...