Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report is bearish. Crude oil and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased across the board, crude oil exports continued to weaken, and terminal demand was weak, reducing the possibility of a reversal in crude oil demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Data - As of May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.158 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 843,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 579,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.582 million barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 211,000 barrels per day to 19.6245 million barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 192,500 barrels per day to 8.81325 million barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 122,750 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 68,500 barrels per day to 1.6865 million barrels per day [3]. 3.2 Report Comment - The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to continued low crude oil exports and increased net imports. The four - week smoothed export volume hit a new low, indicating weakening global crude oil demand [4]. - The weekly refinery utilization rate increased for the fifth consecutive week by 0.5% to 90.7%, suggesting that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be coming to an end [4]. - U.S. crude oil production has declined recently, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is $65 per barrel of WTI [4]. - The strong gasoline demand momentum that exceeded the seasonal norm suddenly stopped, leading to an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories. With the approaching Memorial Day, the poor performance of gasoline demand is worrying. Distillate demand hit a 13 - month low, corresponding to the weakening manufacturing PMI [6]. 3.3 Market Impact - The EIA report was bearish. Inventory increases, weakening exports, and weak terminal demand all pointed to a weak oil market. The U.S. EIA report on the night before last contributed to the decline in oil prices, resulting in a negative daily line [8]. - Oil prices opened higher yesterday due to news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the lack of a realistic basis for such an attack led to a subsequent decline in oil prices [8].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EIA Weekly Data Report - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 - **Report Author**: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment has been suspended due to a recent decline in international oil prices, providing relief for drivers during the holiday period [1][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced consecutive declines, with New York and Brent crude futures dropping by 1.79% and 1.93% on April 28, and further declines of 3.08% and 2.75% on April 29 [1][3]. - The current average price of crude oil is $64.82 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.65%, not reaching the minimum adjustment threshold [1]. - Factors contributing to the decline in oil prices include the U.S.-initiated tariff war, expectations of reduced oil demand, increasing U.S. oil inventories, and OPEC's proposal to accelerate production increases in June [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - Since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have undergone "three increases, four decreases, and one suspension," resulting in a cumulative decrease of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [5]. - On April 17, there was a significant price drop, with 92-octane gasoline decreasing by 0.38 yuan per liter, 95-octane by 0.41 yuan, and 0 diesel by 0.4 yuan [5]. - Current prices in Zhejiang Province are 7.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.52 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 6.72 yuan for 0 diesel [5].