Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous day, crude oil prices retreated again, with the expectation of OPEC's continued production increase in July pressuring the market. Considering the unclear geopolitical situations in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - In the short term, the fundamental contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. After the Mediterranean ECA came into effect in May, although the demand for low-sulfur fuel oil was partially substituted, refineries also adjusted their products to reduce supply. The European market performed stronger than expected, and the tightening of arbitrage cargo volumes also supported the Asian market. However, in the medium term, low-sulfur fuel oil still faces the contradictions of demand share substitution and excess capacity. For high-sulfur fuel oil, as summer approaches, the demand from power plants in the Middle East and other regions enters a seasonal growth stage. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are gradually increasing their fuel oil purchases. But as OPEC accelerates production increases, Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia may increase their consumption of crude oil at the power generation end, and the substitution demand for fuel oil may decline year-on-year [1]. 3. Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [2]. - Cross-variety: No specific strategy [2]. - Cross-period: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the spread of FU2507 - 2509 at low prices, and the previous positive spread positions can take profits at high prices [2]. - Spot-futures: No specific strategy [2]. - Options: No specific strategy [2]. 4. Chart Information - The report includes various charts related to fuel oil, such as the spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and month spreads of Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contracts [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that short - term oil prices are likely to be volatile and on the stronger side, while in the medium - to - long - term, crude oil is expected to maintain a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus. The market has different expectations for OPEC's July production increase, with a 10 - 40 million barrels per day increase having a higher probability. The global refined oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, and the US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years and continues to be depleted. The domestic refinery operations have stabilized, and gasoline and diesel are being further destocked, with refinery profits showing some recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 13 - 19, 2025, WTI increased by $0.20 to $62.69, BRENT increased by $0.13 to $65.54, and DUBAI decreased by $0.04 to $64.03. The spread between WTI - BRENT increased by $0.07 to - $2.85, and the spread between DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.07 to $1.70. Other related spreads and prices also showed corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump mentioned that it might be time to sanction Russia, and the sanctions could push the situation forward. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that if the US adheres to the "zero uranium enrichment" policy, the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US will fail. The EU may propose to the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $50 per barrel [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 9, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, and domestic crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels to 1.3387 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports decreased by 637,000 barrels per day to 336,900 barrels per day. The average four - week supply of US refined oil products decreased by 1.19% compared to the same period last year. In China, the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries stabilized. The production of gasoline and diesel increased, with the production of both gasoline and diesel increasing in major refineries and decreasing in local refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel in local refineries increased. Gasoline and diesel were slightly destocked, and the comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, while that of local refineries decreased [5]. 3.4 Weekly Views - The oil price fluctuated this week. The US - Iran negotiations were deadlocked again over the weekend. The market still has different expectations for OPEC's production increase in July, with a 10 - 40 million barrels per day increase having a higher probability. Globally, refined oil products are seasonally accumulating inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory is lower than in previous years and continues to be depleted, and the shale oil drilling rig count is basically flat. The global refinery profit has recovered, and the US refinery operations continue to strengthen. The inventory of gasoline and diesel in the US is still low, and the cracking of gasoline and diesel is supported. It is expected to maintain a pattern of stronger gasoline and weaker diesel in the near term. Domestically, refinery operations have stabilized, gasoline and diesel are being further destocked, and refinery profits have recovered. In the short term, the oil price is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, while in the medium - to - long - term, crude oil is expected to maintain a bearish pattern [6].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies and the results of US-Iran negotiations are uncertain, which intensifies market volatility. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 82.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 17.3%. [6] - On the supply side, Iran's nuclear negotiations with the US are "difficult but productive," and OPEC plans to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in June, almost offsetting the compensatory production cuts of 431,000 barrels per day by seven countries. [6] - On the demand side, the US and the UK have reached a trade framework agreement, and China and the US are holding talks, which may ease tariff conflicts and boost market sentiment. [6] - In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate and recover, but in the medium term, the center of gravity may decline. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities before the June OPEC meeting and focus on the WTI range of $55 - $65 per barrel. [6] Summary by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From May 5 - 9, international oil prices rebounded and recovered. As of May 9, WTI settled at $61.02 per barrel (+4.68%), Brent at $63.91 per barrel (+4.27%), and INE SC at 493.9 yuan per barrel (+2.34%). [9] - The week-on-week price changes and spreads of various crude oil varieties and arbitrage indicators are detailed in the report, including price increases for WTI, Brent, and Oman, and decreases for SC. [12] 1.2 Financial Aspects - The tension in the trade war has eased, but there is no further positive progress. The S&P 500 index is oscillating within a range, and the VIX volatility has further slowed down. However, due to potential changes in some US policies, financial market volatility may not continue to decline. [14] 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and the US Dollar Index - As of May 9, the crude oil ETF volatility was 39.82, and the US dollar index was 100.42. After the release of the negative impact of OPEC+ production increases before May Day, the volatility in the crude oil market has decreased. The market is currently focused on the impact of US tariff policies and geopolitics on oil prices, and the US dollar index is under pressure. [18] 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of May 6, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 11,500 contracts to 128,600 contracts, a weekly decline of 8.2%. The speculative net long positions increased by 9,700 contracts to 37,200 contracts, a weekly increase of 26%. [21] 2. Crude Oil Supply Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In March, OPEC's crude oil production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day. Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria had significant production cuts, while Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait had slight increases. [27] - According to the IEA's statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in March was 21.94 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 60,000 barrels per day. Iraq and the UAE still had significant overproduction. [31] - In March, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 40,000 barrels per day to 8.964 million barrels per day, and Iran's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.335 million barrels per day. [34] 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistics, Russia's crude oil production in March was 8.963 million barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. According to the IEA, it was 9.07 million barrels per day, also a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day. In March, Russia's crude oil and petroleum product exports totaled 7.38 million barrels per day, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 barrels per day and a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%. [44] 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of May 2, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 479, a decrease of 4 from the previous week and 20 from the same period last year. The efficiency of drilling and oil wells has improved, allowing producers to maintain record production while controlling capital expenditures. [48] - As of the week of May 2, US crude oil production decreased to 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease of 98,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year increase of 2.04%. [52] 3. Crude Oil Demand Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the average daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 19.872 million barrels per day, an increase of 718,000 barrels per day from the previous week but a year-on-year decrease of 2.06%. [56] - The gasoline crack spread in the US has stabilized and rebounded, while the heating oil crack spread has been relatively weak. As of May 9, the gasoline crack spread was $27.53 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $25.77 per barrel. [65] 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of May 9, the ICE diesel crack spread was $18.18 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $22.88 per barrel. The impact of cold weather on oil product demand has weakened, and the crack spreads of ICE diesel and heating oil are expected to decline slightly in the second quarter. [69] 3.3 Chinese Oil Product and Refinery Situation - In March, China's crude oil processing volume decreased by 718,000 tons year-on-year to 63.06 million tons (-1.13%), and imports increased by 2.36 million tons year-on-year to 51.41 million tons (4.81%). Since March, state-owned refineries have reduced their purchases of Russian seaborne oil and increased their purchases from the Middle East, West Africa, and South America. [73] 3.4 International Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - In April, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rates for this year would be 900,000 barrels per day (down), 726,000 barrels per day (down), and 1.3 million barrels per day (down), respectively. For next year, the growth rates are expected to be 1 million barrels per day, 692,000 barrels per day, and 1.28 million barrels per day. [78] 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - As of May 2, the EIA's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. The SPR inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.12 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 740,000 barrels to 24.96 million barrels. [79] - As of the four weeks ending May 2, the net imports of US crude oil increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day. The refinery processing volume increased by 325,000 barrels per day to 15.889 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 89%. [81] - As of May 9, the WTI M1 - M2 spread was $0.44 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.71 per barrel. The Brent M1 - M2 spread was $0.48 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 spread was $1.23 per barrel. Both WTI and Brent spreads showed signs of decline due to concerns about OPEC+ production increases. [84][87] 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Analysis 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In April, the EIA predicted that the global oil supply would be 104.1 million barrels per day this year, and the demand would be 103.64 million barrels per day, resulting in a daily surplus of 460,000 barrels. The IEA predicted that the supply would be 104.2 million barrels per day and the demand would be 103.5 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 700,000 barrels. [91] 5.2 Term Structure - This week, the crude oil market has oscillated upwards amidst uncertainties. The increase in OPEC production may continue until June, and the compensatory production cut plan may not be implemented, weakening the fundamental support. The term structure may change in the short term. [95]

Core Viewpoint - The market consensus is that OPEC will maintain an increase in production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in June [1] Group 1 - The anticipated production increase aligns with OPEC's strategy to manage supply and stabilize oil prices [1] - The decision reflects ongoing discussions among OPEC members regarding market conditions and demand forecasts [1] - This production level indicates a commitment to gradually increase output while monitoring global oil market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment has been suspended due to a recent decline in international oil prices, providing relief for drivers during the holiday period [1][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced consecutive declines, with New York and Brent crude futures dropping by 1.79% and 1.93% on April 28, and further declines of 3.08% and 2.75% on April 29 [1][3]. - The current average price of crude oil is $64.82 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.65%, not reaching the minimum adjustment threshold [1]. - Factors contributing to the decline in oil prices include the U.S.-initiated tariff war, expectations of reduced oil demand, increasing U.S. oil inventories, and OPEC's proposal to accelerate production increases in June [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - Since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have undergone "three increases, four decreases, and one suspension," resulting in a cumulative decrease of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [5]. - On April 17, there was a significant price drop, with 92-octane gasoline decreasing by 0.38 yuan per liter, 95-octane by 0.41 yuan, and 0 diesel by 0.4 yuan [5]. - Current prices in Zhejiang Province are 7.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.52 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 6.72 yuan for 0 diesel [5].