黑貔貅俱乐部 . 以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 在有色金属传统定价框架中 ， 全球宏观流动性 、 全球经济预期与美元指数是核心驱动因子 ， 三者共同决定了金属价格的中长期走势 。 但近两 年来 ， 有色金属市场出现了显著变化 —— 战略资源民粹主义崛起 ， 这一在过去定价逻辑中被忽视的因素 ， 自2025年下半年对等关税落地后 ， 逐渐成为市场定价的核心逻辑之一 。 作为我长期重点关注 、 讨论最多的商品品类 ， 有色金属的交易思路始终贯穿我的投资历程 。 不过近几个月 ， 我刻意减少了相关讨论占比 ， 核心原因在于我的定价逻辑并未随市场变化而调整 ： 在流动性 、 经济需求 、 战略属性等诸多定价因子中 ， 我始终将全球经济周期 （ 尤其是 库存周期 ） 视为核心框架 ， 其他因子均围绕这一主线延伸 。 当经济因子存在较大不确定性 ， 有色金属依赖其他主线驱动时 ， 我的认知与交 易便会出现障碍 —— 这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing divergent trends, with oil prices hitting a low, copper prices facing significant drops, and gold showing mixed signals, reflecting complex global economic dynamics driven by supply-demand fundamentals, industry logic, and monetary policy [1][3][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since May, primarily due to an oversupply situation, with market expectations indicating that global oil supply will exceed demand next year [3]. - High production levels in the U.S. and concerns about economic prospects are suppressing demand expectations, creating fundamental pressure on oil prices [3]. - The approaching holiday season is leading to thin trading volumes, which can amplify price volatility in response to market movements, such as declines in U.S. stock markets [3]. Copper Market - Copper prices dropped by 3%, influenced by a significant decline in U.S. tech stocks, which are seen as a proxy for future demand [3]. - The market has redefined copper as the "AI metal," essential for AI data center construction and grid upgrades, making its pricing sensitive to shifts in tech stock performance [3]. - The recent price drop is viewed as a correction of previous rapid gains, but the long-term narrative surrounding global green transition and electrification remains strong [4]. Gold Market - Gold's price movements are closely tied to market perceptions of Federal Reserve policy, with recent hawkish comments from Fed officials dampening expectations for rapid rate cuts [3]. - Although gold is supported by safe-haven demand, the momentum for significant price increases has weakened, leading to a narrowing of its price gains [3]. - The core rationale for holding gold should focus on hedging against currency credit risks and extreme uncertainties rather than chasing short-term rate cut benefits [4]. Investment Strategy - For oil, the current oversupply situation suggests that it is better suited as an indicator of global demand and economic cycles rather than a long-term investment, with high short-term trading risks [4]. - For copper, the recent adjustment may provide a better entry point for investors who believe in its long-term value, emphasizing the need to distinguish between "bubble" and "value" [4]. - For gold, the current market conditions suggest a phase of high volatility, where maintaining positions for observation is preferable to aggressive buying [4].

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices have plummeted to a four-year low, with a significant drop of over 0.6 yuan per liter in just one year, reflecting broader economic implications and consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Current Oil Prices - As of the latest data, WTI crude oil is priced at $58.23 per barrel, down 1.10%, while Brent crude oil has fallen to $61.91 per barrel [1] - The current price levels indicate a return to the lows seen four years ago, impacting consumer budgets and overall economic sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The oil market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand, characterized by a "supply glut" due to increased production signals from Iraq, which is pressuring prices downward [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainties surrounding Venezuela's policies, contribute to market volatility and risk premiums [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly affect the strength of the dollar and global economic expectations, which in turn influence oil prices [4] - The next adjustment window for domestic oil prices is on December 22, with a current oil change rate of -0.89%, suggesting a potential price reduction of 40 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Consumer Sentiment - There is a shift in consumer psychology from passive acceptance of rising prices to a more proactive wait-and-see approach regarding potential further declines in oil prices [4] - The emotional response to falling oil prices is mixed, with consumers feeling both relief and concern about the underlying economic implications of sustained low prices [6][7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the fluctuation in gold prices, which reached a high of 4145.39 USD/oz before retreating to around 4122 USD/oz, influenced by the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown, the resumption of economic data releases, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - As of 12:50 PM on the reporting day, international gold prices showed strong performance, with London spot gold at 4106 USD/oz and U.S. gold at 4112 USD/oz. Silver prices were reported at 50.8 USD/oz in London and 50.9 USD/oz in the U.S. [3] - In the domestic market, real-time gold prices reached 945.88 CNY/g, silver at 11.6 CNY/g, and platinum at 365 CNY/g, with gold recovery prices at 937 CNY/g [3] Group 3 - Retail prices for branded gold jewelry showed variations, with Shui Bei gold at 1025 CNY/g and other brands like Chow Tai Fook and King Fook at 1313 CNY/g, reflecting a 5 CNY increase from the previous day [5] - Bank gold bar prices were reported as follows: ICBC at 969.17 CNY/g, CCB at 961.80 CNY/g, BOC at 961.68 CNY/g, and ABC at 975.55 CNY/g [5] Group 4 - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by global economic expectations and monetary policy directions, leading to higher costs for consumers purchasing gold jewelry. Investors are advised to consider gold as a safe-haven asset while being cautious of short-term volatility [7] - The gold market remains influenced by multiple factors, and future price trends should be monitored in relation to international economic data and Federal Reserve policy dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $4,070 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic expectations, global risks, and long-term institutional buying, rather than mere speculative trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, leading investors to anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year, which benefits gold in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4]. - Inflation in the U.S. is declining, and economic slowdown is prompting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [4][7]. Group 2: Global Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in European and American markets are causing capital to flow out of high-risk assets and into safer investments like gold [5][7]. - The rise in gold prices reflects growing global market concerns about economic stagnation, weak consumer confidence, and pressured corporate earnings [7][12]. Group 3: Institutional Buying - Central banks and institutional investors are significantly increasing their gold holdings, with the World Gold Council reporting record net purchases by official sectors this year [6][10]. - The trend indicates a structural return to gold as a long-term investment, moving beyond short-term speculation [7][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar enhances gold's appeal, making it cheaper for investors using other currencies, thus contributing to rising demand [7][12]. - The breakout above the $4,000 resistance level suggests a new pricing phase for gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - High gold prices are increasing jewelry prices but are also stimulating demand in certain regions, such as China, where initiatives like "old-for-new" and investment in gold bars are gaining popularity [11]. Group 6: Macro Implications - The sustained rise in gold prices signals heightened global risk concerns and reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, indicating a potential preparation for a new economic cycle [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season in the United States supports the demand for crude oil, leading to a decline in crude oil inventories [1]. - The ruling of the US International Trade Court on May 29 improved the market's expectations for the global economy and crude oil demand, causing crude oil prices to rebound. However, on May 30, the US Federal Court's decision to consider the government's appeal and keep the reciprocal tariffs in effect led to a drop in oil prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US policy fluctuations on crude oil [1]. 3. Data Summary Inventory Data - As of last week, US commercial crude oil inventories were 440.363 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil inventories were 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (0.32%); gasoline inventories were 223.081 million barrels, a decrease of 2.441 million barrels (-1.08%); distillate inventories were 103.408 million barrels, a decrease of 724,000 barrels (-0.70%); total oil product inventories were 1.222411 billion barrels, a decrease of 665,000 barrels (-0.05%); strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 401.313 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (0.20%) [1][2]. Production and Trade Data - The US refinery utilization rate was 90.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points (-0.55%) from the previous week; crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day (0.07%); crude oil imports were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day (4.30%); crude oil exports were 4.301 million barrels per day, an increase of 794,000 barrels per day (22.64%) [2].

Market Overview - The fluctuation of the US dollar index has a significant impact on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars. The current dollar index trend has led to cautious investor sentiment towards gold, resulting in narrow price fluctuations [2] - Global economic data expectations also influence the gold market. Uncertainty regarding economic outlook leads to investor hesitation, affecting gold demand and causing a lack of clear upward or downward momentum in gold prices [2] - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key variable for the gold market. Divergence exists in market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions, leading to cautious investor behavior ahead of the May 8 Federal Reserve rate decision [2] Technical Analysis - Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3239.46 per ounce, experienced a strong intraday rise, reaching a high of $3337.46, and closed at $3333.96, indicating a bullish market trend [5] - On the daily chart, the closing price is significantly above the 20-day moving average, suggesting strong bullish momentum and opportunities for long positions [5] - The hourly chart indicates a departure from the bottom consolidation range, with a strong upward trend along the 20-day moving average, suggesting further upward potential [6] Technical Analysis - Silver - The silver price opened at $32.002, showing wide fluctuations and reaching a high of $32.669, closing at $32.473, indicating a bullish trend [8] - The closing price is back above the 20-day moving average, reinforcing a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart shows silver returning to the high point of the consolidation range, with a need to observe if it can effectively break through the previous resistance level [8]