Group 1 - The core point of the news is the fluctuation in gold prices, which reached a high of 4145.39 USD/oz before retreating to around 4122 USD/oz, influenced by the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown, the resumption of economic data releases, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - As of 12:50 PM on the reporting day, international gold prices showed strong performance, with London spot gold at 4106 USD/oz and U.S. gold at 4112 USD/oz. Silver prices were reported at 50.8 USD/oz in London and 50.9 USD/oz in the U.S. [3] - In the domestic market, real-time gold prices reached 945.88 CNY/g, silver at 11.6 CNY/g, and platinum at 365 CNY/g, with gold recovery prices at 937 CNY/g [3] Group 3 - Retail prices for branded gold jewelry showed variations, with Shui Bei gold at 1025 CNY/g and other brands like Chow Tai Fook and King Fook at 1313 CNY/g, reflecting a 5 CNY increase from the previous day [5] - Bank gold bar prices were reported as follows: ICBC at 969.17 CNY/g, CCB at 961.80 CNY/g, BOC at 961.68 CNY/g, and ABC at 975.55 CNY/g [5] Group 4 - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by global economic expectations and monetary policy directions, leading to higher costs for consumers purchasing gold jewelry. Investors are advised to consider gold as a safe-haven asset while being cautious of short-term volatility [7] - The gold market remains influenced by multiple factors, and future price trends should be monitored in relation to international economic data and Federal Reserve policy dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $4,070 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic expectations, global risks, and long-term institutional buying, rather than mere speculative trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, leading investors to anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year, which benefits gold in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4]. - Inflation in the U.S. is declining, and economic slowdown is prompting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [4][7]. Group 2: Global Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in European and American markets are causing capital to flow out of high-risk assets and into safer investments like gold [5][7]. - The rise in gold prices reflects growing global market concerns about economic stagnation, weak consumer confidence, and pressured corporate earnings [7][12]. Group 3: Institutional Buying - Central banks and institutional investors are significantly increasing their gold holdings, with the World Gold Council reporting record net purchases by official sectors this year [6][10]. - The trend indicates a structural return to gold as a long-term investment, moving beyond short-term speculation [7][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar enhances gold's appeal, making it cheaper for investors using other currencies, thus contributing to rising demand [7][12]. - The breakout above the $4,000 resistance level suggests a new pricing phase for gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - High gold prices are increasing jewelry prices but are also stimulating demand in certain regions, such as China, where initiatives like "old-for-new" and investment in gold bars are gaining popularity [11]. Group 6: Macro Implications - The sustained rise in gold prices signals heightened global risk concerns and reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, indicating a potential preparation for a new economic cycle [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season in the United States supports the demand for crude oil, leading to a decline in crude oil inventories [1]. - The ruling of the US International Trade Court on May 29 improved the market's expectations for the global economy and crude oil demand, causing crude oil prices to rebound. However, on May 30, the US Federal Court's decision to consider the government's appeal and keep the reciprocal tariffs in effect led to a drop in oil prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US policy fluctuations on crude oil [1]. 3. Data Summary Inventory Data - As of last week, US commercial crude oil inventories were 440.363 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (-0.63%) from the previous week; Cushing crude oil inventories were 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (0.32%); gasoline inventories were 223.081 million barrels, a decrease of 2.441 million barrels (-1.08%); distillate inventories were 103.408 million barrels, a decrease of 724,000 barrels (-0.70%); total oil product inventories were 1.222411 billion barrels, a decrease of 665,000 barrels (-0.05%); strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 401.313 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (0.20%) [1][2]. Production and Trade Data - The US refinery utilization rate was 90.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points (-0.55%) from the previous week; crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day (0.07%); crude oil imports were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day (4.30%); crude oil exports were 4.301 million barrels per day, an increase of 794,000 barrels per day (22.64%) [2].

Market Overview - The fluctuation of the US dollar index has a significant impact on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars. The current dollar index trend has led to cautious investor sentiment towards gold, resulting in narrow price fluctuations [2] - Global economic data expectations also influence the gold market. Uncertainty regarding economic outlook leads to investor hesitation, affecting gold demand and causing a lack of clear upward or downward momentum in gold prices [2] - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key variable for the gold market. Divergence exists in market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions, leading to cautious investor behavior ahead of the May 8 Federal Reserve rate decision [2] Technical Analysis - Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3239.46 per ounce, experienced a strong intraday rise, reaching a high of $3337.46, and closed at $3333.96, indicating a bullish market trend [5] - On the daily chart, the closing price is significantly above the 20-day moving average, suggesting strong bullish momentum and opportunities for long positions [5] - The hourly chart indicates a departure from the bottom consolidation range, with a strong upward trend along the 20-day moving average, suggesting further upward potential [6] Technical Analysis - Silver - The silver price opened at $32.002, showing wide fluctuations and reaching a high of $32.669, closing at $32.473, indicating a bullish trend [8] - The closing price is back above the 20-day moving average, reinforcing a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart shows silver returning to the high point of the consolidation range, with a need to observe if it can effectively break through the previous resistance level [8]