Group 1 - The White House indicated that President Trump will make a decision within two weeks, with a significant chance of resolving issues through negotiations, leading to a calming of market sentiment [1] - Oil prices fell approximately 2%, while U.S. oil rose about 0.7%, reflecting mixed reactions in the energy sector [1][9] - European stocks saw gains, with the German stock market rising about 1% and the French market increasing by approximately 0.7% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by about 0.6%, and silver fell by approximately 1%, indicating a decline in precious metals [2] - Bitcoin and Ethereum both rose over 1%, suggesting a positive trend in the cryptocurrency market despite overall market caution [2] - Analysts warn of potential volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly if the U.S. increases its involvement in ongoing conflicts, which could lead to oil prices soaring above $130 per barrel [2] Group 3 - In the U.S. stock market, major indices experienced a limited decline of about 0.2% across the board [2][3] - The British pound saw a slight increase of about 0.2% against the dollar following the release of disappointing retail sales data [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, reaching a weekly low of approximately $3344 before rebounding to around $3357 during the Asian session on June 20 [1] - On June 19, gold prices experienced significant volatility, hitting a low of $3347.53 and a high of $3387.77, ultimately closing at $3370.64, nearly flat [1] - The US dollar index rose to a one-week high of 99.16 but retraced some gains by the end of the session, with a weekly increase of about 0.7%, marking the strongest weekly performance since late February [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates but indicated potential for future rate cuts, while Chairman Powell cautioned against excessive expectations for rate reductions [2] - Powell highlighted that upcoming tariffs from the Trump administration could increase commodity prices, leading to a rise in inflation during the summer [2] - The Fed's vigilance regarding inflation risks diminishes the likelihood of rate cuts, putting direct pressure on gold prices as high-interest environments make gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets [2] Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, provided significant support for gold prices as a safe-haven asset [4] - The escalation of airstrikes and missile attacks between Israel and Iran has heightened concerns over global security, leading to increased demand for gold [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's claims of targeting Israeli military facilities and Israel's accusations of attacking civilian targets have intensified the conflict, further driving up market anxiety [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Diplomatic communications are ongoing, with US Middle East envoy engaging with Iranian officials to seek a resolution to the crisis [5] - Iran has stated it will return to negotiations only if Israel ceases its attacks, while E3 and EU are planning meetings with Iranian officials to explore diplomatic solutions [5] - The persistence of geopolitical risks suggests that demand for gold as a safe-haven asset may continue in the near term [5] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small-bodied close, indicating pressure, with potential further declines if the market falls below $3350, possibly testing above $3300 [8] - Short-term movements have been fluctuating below $3400 since a peak of $3452, with recent tests below $3350 indicating a bearish trend [8] Trading Strategies - Aggressive long positions can be attempted around $3332 with a stop loss at $3327 and a target near $3350/$3360 [9] - Aggressive short positions can be initiated around $3370 with a stop loss at $3377 and a target near $3343/$3333 [9]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the UK-US agreement, aiming to resolve some tariff disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate retaliatory tariffs against the US [1][3] - The US has increased tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to raise "reciprocal tariffs" to 50% if no agreement is reached [3][5] - EU internal divisions are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation while others, including Italy and Hungary, prefer continued negotiations [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The UN warns that global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year due to tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, projecting an 11% drop in 2024 [9] - The UN Secretary-General highlighted that rising trade barriers and geopolitical divisions could worsen the already challenging economic outlook, with tariffs increasing uncertainty for investors [9][10] - A recent Business Roundtable report indicated a 15-point drop in the CEO Economic Outlook Index, attributed to unpredictable trade policies and widespread uncertainty [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations [1][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key factor affecting gold prices, with indications that there may still be room for interest rate cuts this year, despite warnings against overly optimistic expectations for rate reductions [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, provide significant safe-haven support for gold prices, countering the downward pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance and a strong dollar [4] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a contraction phase, with key resistance levels identified around 3370-3372, and a new downward trend has formed [6] - Recent trading activity shows gold fluctuating within a defined range, with a notable drop from 3388 to 3347, aligning with previous market expectations [6]

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released the "World Investment Report 2025," indicating a decline of 11% in global foreign direct investment (FDI) for 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline [1] - Developed economies experienced a sharp drop in direct investment, with Europe seeing a significant decrease of 58% [1] - Asia remains the most attractive destination for foreign investment, projected to attract $605 billion in FDI in 2024, with developing economies in Asia leading as the top investment destinations [1] - The investment landscape for 2024 is influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and increasing competition in industrial policies [1] - Rising financial risks and uncertainties are reshaping the global investment landscape and undermining the confidence of long-term investors [1]

黄金周三（6月18日）早盘在3396附近受阻后下探3370，随后止跌上涨3400。欧盘再次下探3375附近，美盘初上涨3397附近后快速下跌3374/3373。凌晨美联 储决议公布后，金价先是上涨3396附近，随后转跌，收盘前最低跌至3362附近。全天基本保持区间震荡走势，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策 美联储在6月18日的会议中决定维持指标隔夜利率在4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。鲍威尔表示，尽管今年仍预计降息50个基点，但未来降息步伐将明显 放缓，2026年和2027年预计每年仅降息25个基点。这一谨慎立场削弱了市场对美联储快速宽松的预期，导致金价下跌。 2、特朗普关税政策的影响 以色列对伊朗的军事行动加剧了中东地区的紧张局势，引发市场对全球能源供应和供应链稳定的担忧。美元作为避险资产的地位有所回升，但黄金的避险吸 引力并未减弱，尤其是在地缘政治不确定性加剧的情况下。 4、经济数据疲软 美国劳工部数据显示，初请失业金人数仍处于高位，表明劳动力市场动能减弱。5月独栋住宅建筑许可降至两年最低水平，房屋开工率创五年新低，反映出 高借贷成本和关税导致的材料价格上涨的双重打击。经济放缓信号 ...

成功的投资者，是善于独立思考，具有独特的见解，然而这独特的见解不是从天下掉下来，也不是从地下冒出 来，是来自市场，来自实践，市场的实际走势才是千真万确，不会以人们的意愿而转变。 在以色列-伊朗地缘政治紧张局势挥之不去之际，所有人的目光都集中在美联储的政策公告上。北京时间周四 02:00，美国联邦将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要；随后02:30美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会，美 联储政策声明将给市场带来剧烈波动。 黄金近期受中东局势影响，避险情绪拉满，回到了3400时代。但多次冲击3450关口，都未能逾越，随后迎来大幅 回落，成功跌破3400大关。目前承压3400关口弱势下行，隔日最低跌至3366附近反弹回升，但多头涨势乏力，迟 迟不能突破3400大关。今日承压继续下行，彬哥布局的3394空，再次跌至3377目标，再次收割近20点。 n a min lsl / | AIT Q 搜索聊天记录 发送人 × | 日期 v 李鸿彬 6/18 9:19 黄金隔日承压3400震荡下行,回调的低点在 下移,最低跌至3366附近回升,再次冲击 3395附近回落,那么反弹3390附近空,下 方 3373 附近多 李鸿彬 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, are reshaping the global shipping landscape, with a low probability of a complete closure of the strait despite Iranian threats [1][2]. Shipping Market Impact - The oil tanker shipping sector is expected to benefit significantly from the reduction in "dark fleet" capacity, while container shipping will be relatively less affected [1][2]. - The Strait of Hormuz is strategically important for energy transport, with 11% of global maritime trade passing through it, including 34% of maritime oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [1][2]. Scenarios for Strait Closure - Scenario 1: Military conflict may not disrupt oil flow, and the tanker market will remain stable during the off-peak season in Q2 2025 [2]. - Scenario 2: A decline in Iranian exports could reduce "dark fleet" transport volumes, increasing demand for legitimate tankers [2]. - Scenario 3: Broader risks to oil exports in the Gulf region could create uncertainty in tanker shipping, potentially leading to longer transport distances from the Atlantic to Asia [2]. Comparison with Red Sea Route - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have a limited impact on container shipping compared to the disruption of the Red Sea route, which reduced global effective capacity by about 10% in H1 2024 [2]. - Only 3% of global container trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making its closure less impactful on global container shipping capacity [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the easing of trade tensions presents an upside risk to Singapore's economic outlook, while geopolitical tensions pose a downside risk [1] Group 2 - Economists highlight that the current geopolitical landscape could significantly impact economic forecasts for Singapore [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar emphasized the need to resist protectionism and geopolitical tensions that disrupt global clean energy development and green transition processes [1] Group 1: Regional Cooperation and Investment - Anwar called for Southeast Asian countries to establish a clear and coordinated financial framework to enhance investor confidence and attract more capital into renewable energy projects in the region [1] - The Prime Minister highlighted the importance of upgrading grid systems and accelerating the adoption and application of green technologies [1]