原油消息面解析：周二（北京时间2月10日）亚市早盘，美原油交投于64.47美元/桶附近，油价周一上 涨超过1%，主要受地缘政治紧张局势推动。油价周一上涨超过1%，主要受地缘政治紧张局势推动。此 前美国交通部发布公告，建议悬挂美国国旗的船只通过霍尔木兹海峡和阿曼湾时尽可能远离伊朗领海， 引发市场对石油供应可能中断的担忧。全球约五分之一的石油消费量经由该海峡运输。投资者也在关注 西方针对俄罗斯石油出口的进一步制裁动向。欧盟委员会已提议全面禁止任何支持俄罗斯海上原油出口 的服务，旨在遏制其用于乌克兰战争的收入来源。分析师指出，近期油价走势将更多取决于与伊朗相关 的风险溢价变化，而非单纯的石油基本面。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，油价结束连续收阳局面，K线收大实体阴线。均线系统仍依托 油价多头排列，中期客观趋势方向看涨不变。MACD指标在零轴上方，多头动能占优势，预计原油中期 走势呈上行节奏。原油短线（1H）走势陷入区间震荡节奏，油价上下穿越均线系统，区间波幅在65.50- 62.20之间。MACD指标在零轴位置反复穿越，多空力度互相交替。预计日内原油走势仍将维持在区间 内波动为主，保持区间操作思路。综合来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices rebounding sharply after a steep decline, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in monetary policy [3][5][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 10, gold prices surged to $5031.87 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.46% after a previous drop to $4783 on February 6, which represented a decline of over 4.7% [3][5]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a closing price of 1127.92 yuan per gram for gold T+D, reflecting a slight increase of 0.52% from the previous day [3]. - The price of gold bars in banks fluctuated between 1134-1147 yuan per gram, while retail prices for gold jewelry remained high at around 1560 yuan per gram [5][8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, alongside threats of increased tariffs by Trump, led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's indication of potential interest rate cuts contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, further supporting gold prices [3][5]. - Central banks globally continued to increase their gold reserves, with China's central bank being a significant buyer, providing a strong support base for the market [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with investors moving from jewelry purchases to gold bars due to a significant price gap of approximately 400 yuan per gram between retail and recovery prices [5][8]. - Institutional investors exhibit divergent views, with some warning of potential price corrections while others maintain bullish forecasts for gold prices, projecting increases to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6][8]. - The physical gold market is entering a traditional peak season, driven by demand for weddings and gifts around the Lunar New Year, which is expected to boost sales significantly [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest strong support for gold prices above 1120 yuan per gram, despite recent volatility [8]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has increased margin requirements for gold T+D to 18%, indicating potential for increased market volatility [5][8]. - Historical data shows that gold prices typically trend upward in the lead-up to and following the Lunar New Year, suggesting a seasonal pattern that may influence future price movements [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].

格隆汇2月10日｜由于中东紧张局势增加了价格的风险溢价，原油价格保持了两天的涨势。WTI原油在 过去两个交易日上涨1.7%后，交易价格超过每桶64美元，而布伦特原油收于69美元以上。美国在周一 的一份公告中表示，悬挂美国国旗的船只在通过霍尔木兹海峡时，应尽可能远离伊朗水域。尽管华盛顿 和德黑兰之间的核谈判出现了进展迹象，但这一警告依然发出。今年以来，由于反复出现的地缘政治紧 张局势掩盖了对全球供应过剩将推升库存并拖累价格的担忧，原油价格一路走高。本周的一系列数据将 为交易员提供有关市场状况的最新见解，首先是周三凌晨EIA公布的月度短期能源展望报告。 ...

格隆汇2月9日｜由于中东紧张局势有所缓解，降低了短期内供应中断的可能性，油价随之走低。周一布 伦特原油跌向每桶67美元，上周已大幅下跌近4%；同时WTI原油跌至63美元附近。上周五，伊朗与美 国在阿曼展开会谈，旨在缓解围绕伊朗核计划的紧张局势。伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬表示，此次会谈是"向 前迈出的一步"。特朗普表示本周初将举行另一场会议。尽管市场普遍担心供应过剩，但自2026年初以 来，受地缘政治紧张局势以及包括哈萨克斯坦在内的部分供应中断支撑，原油价格持续走高。然而，上 周伊美之间进展的迹象令油价回落，交易员认为这降低了短期内军事干预的可能性。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Electrolytic Aluminum Industry - The dual carbon policy primarily impacts the electrolytic aluminum industry through long-term supply constraints rather than short-term cost increases. The carbon tax has a limited effect on profitability, but stricter environmental requirements will continue to enhance energy consumption control, limiting industry supply [1][2] - The downstream industries show a high acceptance of aluminum price increases, as aluminum constitutes a small percentage of total product costs, e.g., only 3%-4% in the automotive sector. Therefore, short-term price fluctuations have a limited impact on downstream demand [1][2][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The premium for green hydropower aluminum and recycled aluminum is expected to increase significantly in the future. Currently, green hydropower aluminum in overseas markets has a premium of $200-$300, while domestic premiums are not yet significant but are expected to rise with the implementation of carbon taxes [1][5] - The dual carbon policy is driving the retention of profits in high-value segments of China's manufacturing industry. Through capacity reduction and environmental restrictions, profits are increasingly retained in domestic smelting, changing the previous trend of exporting low-value products [1][6][7] - Global inventory replenishment and geopolitical tensions are constraining the supply of strategic metals. The expectation of economic recovery is leading to increased inventory accumulation, while geopolitical factors are limiting new production capacity [1][9][10] Additional Important Insights - The electrolytic aluminum industry is characterized by strong supply constraints, which support high prices and profitability. Even in high-price scenarios, domestic supply ceilings remain robust [2] - The anticipated energy crisis in North America by 2027 could push aluminum prices to around 30,000 RMB/ton, with historical precedents suggesting that such price levels are feasible [3][12] - Companies with high dividends and stable integration, such as Tianshan and Hongqiao, are expected to perform well, with potential valuation recovery from 10x to 13-15x [3][13] - The dual carbon policy is expected to lead to a more rigid supply side, enhancing the elasticity of demand due to strategic considerations and national resource policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are fluctuating as traders weigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against a significant decline in U.S. crude oil inventories [1][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil prices have risen to $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $63 [5] - Geopolitical tensions are identified as a core driver of current market conditions, with market fundamentals suggesting oil prices should be lower [6] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Iran has requested to move diplomatic talks with the U.S. from Turkey to Oman, focusing solely on its nuclear program, following the U.S. downing of an Iranian drone [5][6] - U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened military action against Iran if an agreement is not reached [5] - A U.S.-flagged tanker was recently harassed by Iranian Revolutionary Guard boats in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting escalating tensions [8] Group 3: U.S. Oil Inventory Data - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease of 11.1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which, if confirmed by official data, would mark the largest decline since June [6] - The current oil prices are believed to include a geopolitical risk premium of $5 to $10 per barrel due to expectations of potential U.S. strikes on Iran [8]

智通财经获悉，由于美国在阿拉伯海击落一架靠近美国航空母舰的伊朗无人机，地缘政治紧张局势再次 抬头，油价连续第二天上涨。周二WTI原油上涨1.7%后，周三进一步逼近每桶64美元，而布伦特原油收 于每桶67美元上方。此次冲突令石油市场感到不安，但美国总统特朗普重申双方仍在进行外交对话，白 宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特也确认美伊谈判仍定于周五举行。 责任编辑：栎树 与此同时，据美国石油协会的数据，上周美国原油库存减少了1110万桶。如果周三公布的官方数据证实 这一数字，这将是自6月份以来最大的单周降幅。 尽管有迹象表明供应过剩前景仍在，但对中东地区(全球约三分之一原油的产地)任何冲突的担忧，上个 月仍推高了油价。此外，石油也受到了大宗商品市场整体动荡的影响，黄金和白银价格一度暴跌，但在 周二收复了部分失地。 紧张局势升级的另一个迹象是，一艘悬挂美国国旗的油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭到伊朗船只的骚扰。霍尔木 兹海峡是全球贸易的重要航道。美国中央司令部称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队"骚扰"了"史丹纳号"油轮，该 油轮是美国军方燃料采购计划的一部分。 市场担忧主要集中在，美伊或者伊朗-以色列紧张局势升级的任何后果将如何影响通过霍尔木兹海峡的 ...

格陵兰岛自治政府外交部长莫茨费尔特当天也出席了大会，并再次强调"绝不出售格陵兰岛"。她说，格陵兰岛的红线一直非常清晰，那就是与丹麦站在 一起，捍卫自决权、领土完整、国际秩序和国际法。 欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表当地时间3日在挪威特罗姆瑟举行的2026年"北极前沿"大会上表示，欧盟将继续坚定支持丹麦及其自治领地格陵兰岛。格 陵兰岛自治政府外交部长莫茨费尔特则在会上再次强调"绝不出售格陵兰岛"。 0:00 / 1:27 格陵兰岛自治政府总理尼尔森在丹麦广播公司3日早间播发的采访中表示，与美方的外交沟通渠道已经建立，联合工作组已举行首次会议，但美方仍未 放弃接管格陵兰岛。 欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯当天在讲话中说，格陵兰岛局势虽不如几周前那样严峻，但接下来走向如何、何时会再次出现争端，尚未可知。她 重申，欧盟坚定站在丹麦和格陵兰岛一边，坚定支持《联合国宪章》。格陵兰岛的未来应当由格陵兰岛人和丹麦人决定。她还表示，欧盟需要采取新的北极 政策，以应对该地区不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势、气候变化以及日益增长的经济利益。 丹麦自治领地、世界第一大岛格陵兰岛大部分面积位于北极圈内。美国总统特朗普自2025年初重返白宫以来 ...

当地时间2月3日，美股三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.84%，纳指跌1.43%。美国科技七巨头指数跌1.62%，微软、英伟达跌近3%。 大宗商品市场方面，贵金属重拾涨势。当地时间2月3日，COMEX黄金期货涨6.83%，报4970.50美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨10.27%，报84.92美元/盎 司。 美股三大股指全线收跌 当地时间2月3日，美股三大股指全线收跌。数据显示，截至收盘，道指跌0.34%，标普500指数跌0.84%，纳指跌1.43%。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.62%。个股方面，微软、英伟达跌近3%，Meta跌超2%。 特朗普称正与伊朗进行谈判 央视新闻消息，当地时间2月3日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署政府拨款法案时表示，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续，伊朗方面有意愿采取行动。 特朗普称，与伊朗方面"正在进行谈判"，并希望能够达成某种结果。他表示不能透露会在哪里与伊朗会谈，并称"与伊朗的会晤不止一次"。 特朗普称，相关方此前曾有机会达成协议但未能成功，他不希望再次出现类似去年对伊实施"午夜之锤"军事行动的情况。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃3日表示，"谈判计 ...