Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 15,800 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,750 in the short - term. Tire enterprises are in the seasonal off - season, with weak capacity utilization, slow shipment rhythm, and rising finished - product inventory. Some enterprises have production control and stop - limit production phenomena due to production and sales pressure [2]. 3. Section Summaries Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 360 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 12,615 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - numbered rubber is 210 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 3,035 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 167,630 lots, with an increase of 21,101 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 51,674 lots, with a decrease of 1,655 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,521 lots, with an increase of 1,478 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber is - 11,718 lots, with an increase of 1,742 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 91,330 tons, with an increase of 2,600 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,845 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,840 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,470 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 770 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,952 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 104 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 1,905 yuan/ton, with an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes is 55.29 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.46 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.7 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 51.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, with a decrease of 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 41.91 days, with an increase of 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 46.48 days, with an increase of 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.74%, with an increase of 2.44 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, with an increase of 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.54%, with a decrease of 1.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.56%, with a decrease of 1.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with commodity linkages, causing rubber prices to surge multiple times. The asking price center of the imported rubber market moved upwards. Traders mainly rotated and exchanged positions, with arbitrageurs actively closing positions and selling, while some added positions to buy. Factories remained cautiously on the sidelines. The spot price center of domestic natural rubber also moved upwards. The fluctuating and rising futures market boosted market trading sentiment, and holders adjusted their asking prices upwards. Downstream inquiry sentiment slightly improved, with cautious purchases based on rigid demand [7]. - In the domestic Yunnan production area, the rubber tapping season has ended, and the raw material purchase price has remained basically stable. In the Hainan production area, with the arrival of winter, the number of times local rubber farmers tap rubber has decreased, and the dry content of latex has continued to decline. The amount of rubber that can be collected on the island has significantly decreased, and some private processing plants have stopped purchasing latex, with their production lines gradually entering a shutdown state. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased compared to the previous period. The arrival of overseas standard rubber at the port has shown an increasing trend, while the arrival of mixed rubber has slightly decreased. Downstream tire factories have been cautious in replenishing their stocks, with most purchasing sentiment being wait - and - see. The overall outbound volume has been small. In terms of demand, tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has been running weakly, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises has been slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with commodity linkages, and rubber prices surged multiple times. The asking price center of imported rubber and domestic natural rubber spot prices both moved upwards [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan has stopped tapping, and Hainan's rubber - tapping volume has decreased. Qingdao Port's inventory has continued to accumulate. Overseas standard rubber arrivals have increased, and downstream tire factories have been cautious in restocking. Tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production, with some controlling production, and are in the seasonal off - season [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,650, and the nr2602 contract between 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.26%. The main contract price of 20 - number rubber fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.24% [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 87,160 tons, an increase of 30,170 tons from the previous week. The 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 58,968 tons, a decrease of 605 tons from the previous week [25]. - **Spreads**: As of December 19, the spread between the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts was 20, and the spread between the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 contracts was - 25 [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of December 18, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **20 - number Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of December 18, the 20 - number rubber basis was 536 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week. The non - standard basis was - 770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week [35] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of December 19, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump was 50.75 (+1.3) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber's theoretical processing profit was 2.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 48.6 US dollars/ton from the previous week [39]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices**: As of December 18, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Yunnan production area was in the off - season [42]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [45]. 3.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%. The general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58% [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025 China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5050 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - truck Sales**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing an accumulation trend, and the overall accumulation amplitude has increased compared to the previous period. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing, while mixed rubber arrivals have slightly decreased. Downstream tire factories are cautious in restocking, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment, resulting in a small overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, tire enterprises are flexibly arranging production this week. Some enterprises are controlling production. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is operating weakly, entering the seasonal off - season. The enterprises' overall shipment rhythm is slow, the finished product inventory is rising, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises are implementing production suspension or limitation. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,320 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,455 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 5 yuan, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,865 yuan, up 45 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have changed, with the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai rubber increasing by 128 hands to 146,623 hands, and the open interest of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreasing by 2,571 hands to 59,257 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [2] Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the spot market have changed. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have also changed. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber has also changed [2] Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various raw materials in Thailand have changed, with the price of RSS3 theoretical production profit increasing by 13.6 US dollars/ton to 138.6 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit increasing by 10.6 US dollars/ton to 53.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate at 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points, and the semi - steel tire operating rate at 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong have also increased. The monthly output of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has also increased [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of the underlying asset have decreased. The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 12.76%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 14.59%, down 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options is 19.07%, down 0.44 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,950 - 15,350 in the short - term, and the NR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,650 in the short - term [2]. - The overall inventory in Qingdao ports continues to accumulate, with increases in both bonded and general trade warehouses. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing, while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire factories are cautious in restocking, with a mostly wait - and - see attitude, resulting in small overall outbound volumes [2]. - The resumption of production scheduling by previously overhauled enterprises has driven up the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, as the industry enters the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises conducting overhauls or reducing production in the later stage [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 131,752 lots, up 3,350 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 60,954 lots, down 689 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,015 lots, down 3,139 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,550 lots, down 575 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 72,960 tons, up 15,970 tons; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 59,573 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2]. - **Mixed Rubber Prices**: The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The Shanghai rubber basis is - 250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 730 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,927 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 567 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.73 Thai baht/kg, up 0.42 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue is 55.25 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - **Production Profits**: The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars [2]. - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire开工率**: The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days [2]. - **Tire Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 12.86%, down 0.52 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.45%, down 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.76%, down 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.76%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In November 2025, the sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market was about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - **Qingdao Rubber Inventory**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58% [2]. - **Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved, and the warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,985 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 127,685 lots, an increase of 3,726 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - rubber contract was 56,144 lots, an increase of 26,357 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,378 lots, an increase of 1,839 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 10,295 lots, a decrease of 4,066 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,030 tons, unchanged; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 56,752 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,815 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai rubber basis was - 365 yuan/ton, unchanged; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 685 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,806 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 741 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 43.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 70.2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.5%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.92%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 13.18%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 15.47%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.71%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.73%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:泰国天气逐步正常，橡胶震荡走弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区原料价格基本持稳，产区陆续进入全面停割期。海南产区降水天气增加，对割胶作业扰动增强，但随着气温下降整体原料产 出呈现季节性减量趋势，当地加工厂高价采购原料积极性走低，原料收购价格有所下调。（2）泰国产区：周内泰东北维持旺产期产出，杯胶价格继续回落； | | 供给 | 中性 | 泰南洪水逐渐消退，恢复割胶 及工厂生产，虽有抢原料，但供应增量预期施压原料，胶水价格走跌。（3）越南产区：越南产区天气逐步转好，中北部的极 | | | | 端天气影响减弱，因进口胶减少，工厂采购成本上移 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent raw materials in Yunnan's rubber - producing areas remain stable, with farmers in the area starting to sell rubber blocks, and the supply is relatively abundant; in Hainan's producing areas, continuous rainfall and decreasing temperature have increased disruptions to rubber - tapping operations, reducing the output of fresh glue, but due to the decline in overseas factory offers, local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a slight decrease in raw material prices [2]. - Currently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port is still accumulating significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories are flexible in production scheduling and cautious in inventory preparation, resulting in a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port [2]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance last week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance resumed production, leading to a restorative increase in capacity utilization. This week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to normal, it will drive a restorative increase in overall capacity utilization, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, which will limit the increase in overall capacity utilization [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,100 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - rubber is - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 62,962 lots, down 3,978 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 42,278 lots, down 2,933 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 31,480 lots, up 337 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 8,307 lots, up 665 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 41,400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber in the exchange are 52,113 tons, up 1,411 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 700 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,949 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 719 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.23 days, down 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.66%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.66%, down 0.33 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [2]. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, with an increase rate of 2.71%. The inventory in the bonded area was 72,400 tons, an increase rate of 0.69%; the inventory in general trade was 409,200 tons, an increase rate of 3.07% [2]. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]. - In the first week of the future (November 30 - December 6, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber - tapping; in the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderate, which also had less impact on rubber - tapping [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, resulting in a large increase in the inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance last week, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate; full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate increased. This week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume normal production, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to increase, but the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises at the beginning of the month will limit the increase range. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15100 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12170 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3080 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 66940 lots, down 12655 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 45211 lots, down 1736 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31817 lots, down 2468 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8972 lots, up 1622 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 41400 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 50702 tons, down 605 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1845 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1835 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14630 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 10800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 450 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13061 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 891 yuan/ton, up 178 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 148.2 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 27 US dollars/ton, up 5.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.61 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.64 million tons, down 6.11 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.19%, down 0.86 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.95 days, down 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.23 days, down 0.63 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.05%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.28%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.98%, up 1.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.99%, up 1.69 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 481,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons, an increase of 2.71%. The bonded area inventory was 72,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%; the general trade inventory was 409,200 tons, an increase of 3.07%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 6.55 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.43 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.23 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.66 percentage points. - As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a phase of range-bound fluctuations due to seasonal inventory accumulation and insufficient downstream demand [1][2] Supply Analysis - Domestic production areas are gradually entering a reduction and cessation period, while overseas regions like Thailand and Vietnam are experiencing continuous rainfall disruptions, leading to strong support for raw material prices on the cost side [1] - The volume of overseas shipments arriving at ports is showing a seasonal increase trend, but the accumulation of natural rubber inventory continues to suppress spot prices [1] Demand Analysis - As the end of the month approaches, some brands face monthly task pressures, leading to moderate replenishment actions by agents; however, overall demand performance is poor [1] - Channels and end-user sales are sparse, with most distributors showing insufficient willingness to restock, focusing more on digesting existing channel inventory [1] Market Outlook - The natural rubber inventory is entering a seasonal accumulation cycle, with expectations of further declines in downstream enterprise operations [1] - The market is anticipated to experience range-bound fluctuations, with future attention on the output situation of raw materials during the peak production period in major producing areas and macroeconomic changes [1] - If raw material supply is smooth, a weakening of rubber prices is expected; if supply is constrained, rubber prices are projected to operate within the range of 15,000 to 15,500 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Near-term raw material prices in Yunnan's rubber production areas have changed little. Although it has stopped raining in some areas, it remains cloudy, and raw material collection is still not ideal. In Hainan's production areas, the weather is okay, but the temperature has started to drop, the dry content of latex has declined, and local processing plants have gradually entered the winter stockpiling stage, maintaining a state of increasing prices to purchase raw materials. [2] - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouses are showing inventory reduction, while general trade continues to accumulate inventory. Overseas ship arrivals and warehousing still remain at a high level. Factories have sufficient replenishment in the early stage. The outbound goods from general trade warehouses are mostly for the delivery of previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and new orders are few, so the general trade inventory continues to accumulate. [2] - In terms of demand, tire enterprise orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged maintenance during the cycle, and some have reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. As the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually resumes, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control continues, which will limit the increase range of capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,200 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,700 in the short term. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 12,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 123,127 lots, a decrease of 3,000 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract is 62,272 lots, an increase of 808 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,848 lots, a decrease of 1,192 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber is - 11,220 lots, a decrease of 3,852 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 39,600 tons, a decrease of 76,460 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 49,795 tons, an increase of 201 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,111 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 791 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 61.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 57 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 149.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The full - steel tire operating rate is 64.5%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points; the semi - steel tire operating rate is 73.68%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days. [2] - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.46%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.43%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 20.32%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. [2] Industry News - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. [2] - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. [2]