Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,220 in the short - term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory accumulation rate of Qingdao Port has narrowed compared to the previous period. The bonded warehouse shows a slight destocking, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. In the short term, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao may still be in an inventory accumulation state [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - grade rubber contract is 12,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - grade rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber is 2,945 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 187 hands to 140,848 hands; the positions of the main 20 - grade rubber contract decreased by 1,340 hands to 69,351 hands [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 885 to - 33,178; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - grade rubber decreased by 708 to - 10,665 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 650 tons to 118,320 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber increased by 2,319 tons to 50,905 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is not provided in a comparable way; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,455 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai market Vietnamese 3L is not provided clearly; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,500 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 560 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 445 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - grade rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,928 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - grade rubber contract is 763 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 58.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, down 43.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, up 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.26 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, up 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, up 0.23 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.36%, down 0.08 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.26%, down 0.06 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 21.03%, down 0.09 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 21.03%, down 0.09 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [2] - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded area inventory is 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory is 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60% [2] - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested, and rubber prices first declined and then rose. The offer price of imported rubber in the market decreased, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market showed a weak oscillation, and the spot offer price of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material prices are basically stable with relatively abundant supplies, while in Hainan, due to limited improvement in precipitation, tapping operations have resumed slowly, with a relatively small total supply of raw materials. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. The bonded warehouse has seen a slight decrease in inventory, while the general trade warehouse has a large increase. Overseas arrivals have increased, and the total inbound volume of warehouses in Qingdao has increased significantly month - on - month. However, tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment and are mostly on the sidelines regarding high - priced raw materials. - This week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. Next week, most enterprises will maintain stable production, but it is heard that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamental negative factors in the natural rubber market were gradually digested this week, with rubber prices first falling and then rising. Imported rubber offers declined, and the trading atmosphere was average. The futures market was weakly oscillating, and domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has stable raw material prices and abundant supplies, while Hainan has slow recovery in tapping and limited raw material supply. Qingdao Port's total inventory has increased significantly, with a slight decrease in the bonded warehouse and a large increase in the general trade warehouse. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials. The production of domestic tire enterprises is generally stable, but an individual enterprise may have a maintenance plan. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract between 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.6%; the main contract price of 20 - rubber oscillated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.67% [13]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 7, the spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 1 - 5 was - 75, and the spread between 20 - rubber contracts 1 - 2 was - 30 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 118,970 tons, a decrease of 1,930 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,931 tons from last week [27]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 6, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 6, the 20 - rubber basis was 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 156 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 465 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of November 6, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.3) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 51.9 (-1.4) Thai baht/kg. As of November 7, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of November 6, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - **Import Quantity**: According to customs data, in September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [45]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory was 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory was 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36% [49]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [52]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire exports were 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, the cumulative tire exports were 6,390,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88%. - **Domestic Heavy - Truck Sales**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [59]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a significant accumulation trend, with a slight de - stocking in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories are cautious about high - priced raw materials, leading to an inventory accumulation inflection point. In terms of demand, the production of domestic tire maintenance enterprises has returned to normal, slightly increasing the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,045 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan), and the 1 - 5 spread is 195 yuan (up 20 yuan). The closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,130 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan), and the 12 - 1 spread is 195 yuan (down 15 yuan). The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,915 yuan (unchanged). The trading volume and net positions of the two contracts have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 280 tons to 119,100 tons, while those of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 504 tons to 48,586 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market and other regions have changed. For example, the price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Vietnam 3L is 14,950 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan). The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber has also changed [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the market have changed, with the prices of smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber decreasing, while the price of glue remains unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 have decreased. The monthly import volumes of technically - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber have increased by 0.95 million tons and 4.91 million tons respectively [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have decreased slightly. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have decreased, and the monthly production of all - steel and semi - steel tires has increased by 110,000 and 2.19 million respectively [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset have changed, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 1.61 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility increasing by 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a 12% month - on - month decrease and a 40% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a 22% year - on - year increase. As of November 2, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 447,700 tons, a 3.57% increase. As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises have changed [2] 3.7 View Summary - The inventory at Qingdao Port has accumulated, and the demand side has seen a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. The ru2601 and nr2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate within specific ranges [2] 3.8 Prompt Attention - Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a significant accumulation trend, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment, so they are more cautious about high - priced raw materials, resulting in a weak purchasing sentiment. The general trade warehouse's出库 is less than expected, leading to an inflection point in the total inventory accumulation in Qingdao. In terms of demand, the domestic tire enterprise capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, and most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule in the short term. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,875 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 11,960 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract are 140,178 lots, up 1,385 lots; the positions of the main 20 - rubber contract are 62,961 lots, up 35,217 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 29,182 lots, up 992 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - rubber are - 11,000 lots, down 778 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 120,080 tons, down 550 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 46,571 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 325 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,004 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 1,044 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup - lump of Thai raw rubber is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.4 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, down 44.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.01 days, down 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.82 days, down 0.44 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.01%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.68%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.32%, up 0.24 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, an increase of 3.57%. The bonded area inventory is 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory is 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market rebounded but then fell back. Imported rubber market offers rose, while domestic natural rubber spot offers adjusted slightly following the market. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and maintained a rigid demand replenishment rhythm [8]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the dry content of latex decreased rapidly due to large temperature differences between day and night, and the purchase price of processing plants remained stable. In Hainan, rainfall affected tapping operations, resulting in limited raw material availability for local rubber processing plants. The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction, but the reduction rate in general trade warehouses has narrowed [8]. - Overseas standard rubber arrivals at Qingdao continued to decline, leading to a slight reduction in bonded warehouse inventory. Mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing increased as expected, but tire factories' purchases were mostly on a wait - and - see basis. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,250, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market rebounded but then fell back. Imported rubber offers rose, and domestic spot offers adjusted slightly. Downstream buyers had a wait - and - see attitude and replenished based on rigid demand [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Global tapping season continues. Yunnan has temperature - related issues, and Hainan has rainfall problems. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are decreasing, and mixed rubber arrivals are increasing. Tire factory capacity utilization decreased slightly and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,800 - 15,250, and the nr2601 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 1.63% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber fell by 2.2% week - on - week [13]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the position changes of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber [14][16]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of October 31, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 70, and the spread between 20 - number rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 121,670 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from last week; 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, an increase of 2,217 tons from last week [26]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 30, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - Number Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of October 30, the 20 - number rubber basis was 746 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of October 30, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+1.5) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 53.3 (+0.9) Thai baht/kg. As of October 31, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 44.4 US dollars/ton from last week [38]. - **Domestic Producing Areas**: As of October 30, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from last week [41]. - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [44]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [48]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 7.61 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 6.15 percentage points year - on - year [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.57% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Trucks)**: In September 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [57]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market showed a trend of rising first and then falling under the combined influence of fundamentals and macro - sentiment. In the first half, strong raw material prices, continuous inventory reduction, and positive macro - expectations supported the rise of rubber prices; in the second half, after the macro - positive factors materialized, the market sentiment turned cautious, and rubber prices declined. In the future, heavy rainfall in major producing areas will limit rubber tapping, and raw material prices are expected to remain firm. On the demand side, tire companies still face shipment pressure, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some companies plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance in November, which will restrict the improvement of overall production capacity utilization. Overall, raw material prices will provide short - term support, but there is a lack of substantial positive factors on the demand side. Therefore, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate next week [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price Data - As of October 30, the mainstream price of domestic full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. The US dollar price of Thai - produced 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,870 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [3] Main - producing Countries' Rubber Output and China's Natural Rubber Imports - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of ANRPC member countries' natural rubber output and China's natural rubber imports are presented [10][11][12] Tire Output - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of tire output are presented [13][14] Tire Enterprise Operating Rates - This week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. Some enterprises suspended or restricted production this week, dragging down the operating rate [3] Tire Enterprise Inventories - No specific data analysis in the text, only historical data charts of the number of days of available inventory in semi - steel and full - steel tire factories in Shandong are presented [20][21][22] Natural Rubber Inventories - As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.0389 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,000 tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decline of 1.18% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of domestic whole milk in the Shanghai market dropped to 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week, while the US dollar price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained unchanged at 1,850 US dollars/ton [3]. - In the producing areas, rainfall in northeastern and northern Thailand eased, with a large decline in cup - rubber prices, while in southern Thailand, glue prices rebounded. In Yunnan, the weather was good, glue output was stable, and raw material prices decreased slightly. In Hainan, although rain affected tapping, weak procurement by factories dragged down raw material prices. In Vietnam, glue supply was normal, and stable procurement supported prices [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a 28.92% increase from the previous week but an 8.57% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a 22.43% increase from the previous week and a 4.98% positive year - on - year growth. Tire enterprises resumed work as planned, driving a significant increase in capacity utilization [3]. - As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons (0.7%) from the previous week. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (0.11%) from the previous period. Bonded area inventory increased by 2.02% to 70,800 tons, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.49% to 385,200 tons [3]. - In the future, rainfall in major natural rubber producing areas is expected to ease, and tapping operations are likely to normalize. Global natural rubber supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase cycle, putting downward pressure on raw material prices. The terminal tire market lacks highlights, and demand recovery is slow. Tire enterprises continue to purchase natural rubber on a need - to - fill basis, and demand support for raw material prices is limited. Inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and some regions may face inventory accumulation pressure. In the short term, the natural rubber market may be under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Price Data - There are charts showing the basis of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber, including the market mainstream price of Yunnan - produced natural rubber in Shanghai, the closing price of the main contract of SHFE natural rubber, the market price of Thai - produced STR20 dry rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone, and the closing price of the main contract of SHFE 20 - standard rubber [5][6] Main - producing Countries' Rubber Output and China's Natural Rubber Imports - There are charts presenting the monthly output of natural rubber in ANRPC member countries and China's natural rubber imports from 2021 to 2025 [8][9][10] Tire Production - There is a chart showing the monthly tire production from 2021 to 2025 [11][12] Tire Enterprise开工率 - There are charts showing the weekly semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprise开工率 from 2021 to 2025 [14][15][16] Tire Enterprise Inventory - There are charts showing the weekly available inventory days of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong factories from 2021 to 2025 [18][19][20][21] Natural Rubber Inventory - There are charts showing the 20 - standard rubber futures inventory, natural rubber futures inventory, natural rubber social inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory, and Qingdao general trade inventory from 2021 to 2025 [24][25][26][27][28][29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, market trading activity increased with the return of funds, and the cost - end support continued due to rainfall in overseas production areas affecting raw material supply, leading to a rise in rubber prices. However, as recent rainfall in production areas has weakened, the supply growth expectation is strong, and the natural rubber price is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has more rain, resulting in slow raw material release and weak raw material prices. In Hainan, the rainfall has improved, and new rubber output is gradually recovering. Some processing plants are more eager to purchase raw materials due to post - holiday replenishment needs [9]. - Qingdao port inventory has continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. The overall warehouse inbound volume increased month - on - month before the holiday, and the outbound volume of general trade increased as downstream tire factories picked up pre - ordered goods, driving the inventory decline [9]. - During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume work, the device capacity will be gradually released [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12100 - 12730 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: After the holiday, market trading activity increased, and rubber prices rose due to cost - end support. However, with the weakening of rainfall in production areas, supply growth is expected to be strong, and the price will be range - bound [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Global production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has rain - affected raw material release, while Hainan's output is recovering. Qingdao port inventory is declining, and tire enterprise capacity will gradually be released after maintenance [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2511 contract between 12100 - 12730 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 1.9% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price rose by 2.07% week - on - week [12]. - As of October 10, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was - 10 [22]. - As of October 10, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 144390 tons, a decrease of 5420 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 41329 tons, a decrease of 705 tons from last week [27]. - **Spot Market** - As of October 10, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14700 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - As of October 9, the 20 - rubber basis was 801 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - As of October 9, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 53.9 (- 0.9) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 50.7 (+ 0.4) Thai baht/kg [39]. - As of September 26, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 15.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.8 US dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of October 9, the price of Yunnan latex was 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from last week [42]. - **Import and Inventory** - In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 52.08 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 412.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.01%. Bonded area inventory was 6.94 tons, unchanged from the previous period; general trade inventory was 38.71 tons, a decline of 1.18% [50]. - **Downstream** - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period (20250926 - 1002) and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period (20250926 - 1002) and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [53]. - In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 76.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, the cumulative tire export volume was 570.30 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 10.5 tons (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% from August and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 80 tons, reaching 82.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15150 - 15700 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12150 - 12500 in the short - term. The recent inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. Demand - wise, last week tire enterprises mostly maintained their previous operating levels, with overall operating levels slightly adjusted. Some small - scale semi - steel tire sample enterprises entered the National Day holiday maintenance due to insufficient orders, which will drag down the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15375 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2945 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 increased. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 1790 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber decreased by 505 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers were 1860 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers were unchanged. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 were unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the basis of 20 - number rubber increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber such as smoked sheets and films decreased, while those of glue and cup rubber were unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires changed slightly [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying changed, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2]. Industry News - As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 45.65 tons, a decrease of 0.47 tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01%. The inventory in the bonded area remained unchanged, and that in general trade decreased. The entry and exit rates of warehouses changed. As of September 25, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises changed. The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season, with different situations in Yunnan and Hainan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber产区处于割胶期，云南产区降雨扰动仍存，加工厂采购需求旺盛使原料价格坚挺；台风“桦加沙”影响海南产区割胶作业，原料供应收紧 [2] - 近期青岛港口库存延续降库但降幅缩窄，保税库继续去库，一般贸易库延续小幅累库，海外船货到港集中入库，入库量超预期，保税库出库量好于一般贸易库 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动，半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期支撑开工，全钢胎替换市场需求未明显提升且部分企业外贸出口有压力，部分企业库存有提升迹象，短期企业产能利用率可能小幅下调 [2] - ru2601合约短线预计在15400 - 16000区间波动，nr2511合约短线预计在12300 - 12800区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价15570元/吨，环比 - 50；20号胶主力合约收盘价12430元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶1 - 5价差55元/吨，环比 - 20；20号胶11 - 12价差10元/吨，环比 - 35 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差3140元/吨，环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量152529手，环比 - 799；20号胶主力合约持仓量51920手，环比 - 2296 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓 - 27840，环比 - 1019；20号胶前20名净持仓 - 13209，环比 - 1525 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单153570吨，环比 - 2260；20号胶交易所仓单44756吨，环比 - 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶14850元/吨，环比 - 50；上海市场越南3L 15250元/吨，环比0 [2] - 泰标STR20 1870美元/吨，环比35；马标SMR20 1870美元/吨，环比35 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶14880元/吨，环比100；马来西亚人民币混合胶14830元/吨，环比100 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502 12100元/吨，环比0；齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000 11700元/吨，环比0 [2] - 沪胶基差 - 720元/吨，环比100；沪胶主力合约非标准品基差 - 740元/吨，环比5 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶13220元/吨，环比40；20号胶主力合约基差790元/吨，环比75 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价59.35泰铢/公斤，环比 - 0.38；胶片市场参考价57.3泰铢/公斤，环比0 [2] - 胶水市场参考价55.3泰铢/公斤，环比0；杯胶市场参考价50.8泰铢/公斤，环比0.35 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润151美元/吨，环比 - 7.6；STR20理论生产利润 - 5美元/吨，环比12 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量11.31万吨，环比 - 0.88；混合胶月度进口量26.84万吨，环比0.89 [2] - 全钢胎开工率65.66%，环比0.07；半钢胎开工率73.66%，环比0.2 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数39.13天，环比0.3；半钢轮胎山东库存天数46.02天，环比0.08 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量1303万条，环比28；半钢胎当月产量5806万条，环比109 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率15.59%，环比 - 0.13；标的历史40日波动率15.17%，环比 - 1.25 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率23.31%，环比0.36；平值看跌期权隐含波动率23.33%，环比0.36 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 截至2025年9月21日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存46.12万吨，环比降0.36万吨，降幅0.76%；保税区库存6.94万吨，降幅5.07%；一般贸易库存39.18万吨，增幅0.04% [2] - 青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加0.59个百分点，出库率减少2.91个百分点；一般贸易仓库入库率增加1.32个百分点，出库率增加1.78个百分点 [2] - 截至9月18日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率72.74%，环比 + 0.13个百分点，同比 - 6.92个百分点；全钢胎样本企业产能利用率66.36%，环比 + 0.05个百分点，同比 + 6.18个百分点 [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - 周四隆众轮胎样本企业开工率 [2]