Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Short - term**: RU is neutral - biased long, NR is neutral. As of August 29, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened. RU's recent frequent rainfall in production areas hindered tapping, leading to tight raw material supply and strong glue prices, with a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR was affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with slow supply increase in overseas main production areas, stronger Thai cup - lump prices, and a slight reduction in dark - colored rubber inventory. However, tire开工率 declined, semi - steel tire inventory digestion was slow, and tire exports over - drafted subsequent demand, and domestic demand awaited verification during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is judged that RU prices will fluctuate widely this week, and NR prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Medium - to long - term**: RU is neutral - biased short, NR is neutral - biased short. The factors affecting long - term trends are similar to short - term ones, mainly considering the supply - demand relationship in the tire market and the impact of weather on rubber production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **Prices**: As of August 29, Thai cup - lump price was 50.5 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht/kg from last week; Thai glue price was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht/kg from last week. Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. International prices: Thai standard price was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Indian standard price was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week; Thai mixed price was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Malaysian mixed price was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [21][71][82]. - **Spreads**: As of August 29, the RU - NR spread was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and it is expected to continue widening. The Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 409.7 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 454.65 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan/ton from last week. The RU09 - 01 spread was - 975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [4][94][109]. **Supply - related** - **Production Areas Weather**: During the period from August 26 to September 2, Vietnam was affected by typhoons "Jianyu" and "Lanhu". The estimated rubber production loss due to heavy rainfall was about 0.29 - 0.48 tons, which will be released after the weather improves. Yunnan's rainfall gradually subsided, while Hainan was more significantly affected by typhoon "Lanhu", with expected increased rainfall that would hinder tapping [10][31]. - **Thai Supply**: Thai weather was normal, raw material prices increased marginally, and production was stable. The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) launched a plan to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, aiming to increase prices. The first batch of 400 tons of cup - shaped rubber will be shipped in September this year, and commercial shipments are planned to start in October 2025, with production increasing to 2,400 tons [4][21]. - **Ivory Coast Exports**: In July 2025, Ivory Coast exported 2.85 tons of natural rubber to China, a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29% and a year - on - year increase of 92.59%. From January to July 2025, Ivory Coast's total exports of natural rubber to China were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 9.61 tons compared to the same period, with a total year - on - year increase of 52.73% [26]. **Demand - related** - **Tire Industry**: As of August 29, the semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, a decrease of 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66%. Due to anti - dumping measures in the EU, there was a rush to export, over - drafting subsequent orders, and downstream tire factories were pessimistic, making short - term inventory digestion difficult. As of August 28, the whole - steel tire开工率 was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. In July 2025, the export volume of Chinese whole - steel tires was 45.44 tons, a decrease of 4.72 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. Enterprises' exports remained active, domestic sales were stable, and it is expected that the开工率 will improve in September [55][61]. - **Inventory**: As of August 24, the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of August 29, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 60.23 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 7.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 52.91 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory in Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the next period [4][48][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with a slightly reduced decline rate. The inbound volume increased month - on - month, but the outbound volume increase was average. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement was relatively moderate, and it is expected that the inventory at Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the short term. In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment operated stably last week, while some enterprises had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment also operated stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still have a certain impact on short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,520 - 13,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 12,710 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of No. 20 rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber was 3,160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,220 lots, up 2,236 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 38,853 lots, down 2,509 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 31,691 lots, down 1,523 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber was - 7,238 lots, down 857 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 167,920 tons, down 3,160 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber were 45,764 tons, up 102 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 770 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,034 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber was 324 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.23 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.55 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 227.4 US dollars/ton, down 7.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.8 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, down 0.91 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.8%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.87%, up 0.3 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.12%, up 0.71 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.14%, up 0.73 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas with heavy rainfall were mainly in southern Thailand, southern Vietnam, and southwestern Cambodia, which increased the impact on tapping work. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, also increasing the impact on tapping work. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has seen an expanded month - on - month destocking, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing destocking. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage are decreasing month - on - month, while downstream tire companies are actively purchasing, leading to better - than - expected warehouse shipments and continued destocking at Qingdao Port [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month. The production schedules of maintenance enterprises have basically returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in capacity utilization, and enterprises generally maintain normal sales. However, this week, the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth. Some enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules or have maintenance plans at the end of the month, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,760 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 137,392 lots, down 1,722 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 51,988 lots, down 6,908 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33,175 lots, down 876 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,834 lots, down 1,489 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 177,270 tons, down 20 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 45,662 tons, up 1,310 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 860 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,085 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,027 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 412 yuan/ton, up 144 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 63.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.9 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 58.33 Thai baht/kg, up 0.73 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 50.1 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 47.05 days, up 0.32 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.53%, up 0.52 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.94%, up 0.25 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.64%, down 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.64%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 24th to August 30th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. Areas north of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which may increase the impact on tapping. Areas south of the equator with heavy rainfall are mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping in most other areas has slightly decreased [2]. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71%. Bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [2]. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, raw material supply is tight due to weather, and purchase prices remain high. In Hainan, the weather has improved, tapping has resumed, and the supply of fresh latex is increasing. However, due to possible future rainfall, some processing plants are competing to purchase raw materials at higher prices, driving up raw material purchase prices [2]. - The short - term price range of the ru2601 contract is expected to be between 15,650 - 16,200, and the short - term price range of the nr2510 contract is expected to be between 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of August 12, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened [4]. - In the short - term, RU is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as typhoons affecting the Yunnan main production area, tight raw material supply, rising glue prices, and a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation as the Vietnam production area is affected by heavy rainfall, the Thai cup - lump price rises, dark - colored rubber inventory decreases slightly, tire开工率 remains stable, but overseas demand is expected to decline, and domestic demand awaits the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. - In the long - term, both RU and NR are considered neutral - bearish [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Supply - The Vietnam production area is disturbed by heavy rainfall, and the overseas export volume is lower than the annual average [5]. - As of August 13, the Thai glue price remained stable at 54 Thai baht/kg, and the Thai cup - lump price was 49.3 Thai baht/kg, up 1.5 Thai baht/kg from the previous week [18][17]. - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions are normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, the overseas main production areas will continue to increase production, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons, with different growth rates in different countries [36]. - The export volume of overseas main production areas is lower than the average level of previous years [38]. Domestic Supply - Typhoon "Yangliu" is moving westward and strengthening, and the Yunnan production area in China continues to be affected by rainfall [53]. - As of August 12, the Yunnan glue price was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Yunnan rubber block price was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 13, the Hainan glue price for concentrated latex factories was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Hainan glue price for whole - latex factories was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, down 11,900 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [67]. Tire - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 0.08% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese all - steel tire enterprises was 10.51 million pieces, down 250,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63% [81][79]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, down 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66% [89]. Price and Spread - As of August 12, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai state - owned whole - latex price was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [97]. - As of August 12, the RU - NR spread was 3,195 yuan/ton, and it is expected to continue to widen [109]. - As of August 12, the Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1,015 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 288.55 yuan/ton, down 112.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 360.1 yuan/ton, down 54.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [124]. - As of August 12, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [134].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight accumulation trend recently, with the bonded area maintaining de - stocking and the general trade warehouse showing inventory accumulation. Overseas goods arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remain relatively low, but the overall outbound volume is less than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude. In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, near the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was less than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term overhaul plans from the end of July to early August. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 15,010 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 12,670 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai Rubber was - 785 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 2,340 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 10,456 lots to 108,879 lots, and that of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber decreased by 3,308 lots to 51,979 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber was - 27,577, an increase of 848; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 10,611, an increase of 732. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber decreased by 100 tons to 181,920 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber increased by 1,209 tons to 38,808 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's Styrene - Butadiene Rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's Butadiene Rubber BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was - 365 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,971 yuan/ton, down 384 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber was 301 yuan/ton, down 244 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.44 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 50 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.61%, up 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.59%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 39%, up 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 38.99%, up 1.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 27th to August 2nd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which had less impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on rubber tapping. As of July 27th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade areas in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points. As of July 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.06 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.98 percentage points. The production of some unexpectedly overhauled enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, heavy rainfall restricts glue output, and with strong competition from latex factories, raw material prices remain firm. In Hainan, rainfall disrupts local areas, limiting the increase in raw material supply. Local factories generally increase prices for raw material procurement. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory growth. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage have increased, but downstream tire companies are mainly replenishing stocks in moderation and observing, which suppresses the port's shipping rate, resulting in continued inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire companies varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production schedules of maintenance companies will return to normal levels, and there is still room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,500 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,360 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,330 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton). - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 5 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton). - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,035 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 3,400 lots to 148,593 lots, and the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,938 lots to 22,585 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 26,556 lots (down 8,011 lots), and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,948 lots (up 83 lots). - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 40 tons to 188,650 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber was 37,195 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton). - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 60 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,437 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 112 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.37 Thai baht/kg (up 0.14 Thai baht/kg), and the market reference price of rubber sheets was 61.39 Thai baht/kg (down 0.61 Thai baht/kg). - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the market reference price of cup lump was 47.8 Thai baht/kg (up 0.25 Thai baht/kg). - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton (down 22 US dollars/ton), and the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3.86 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 14.82 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 22.23 million tons (down 2.64 million tons). - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56% (up 0.81 percentage points), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92% (up 2.51 percentage points). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.67 days (up 0.22 days), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days (down 0.72 days). - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces (up 800,000 pieces), and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces (up 1.08 million pieces). [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.64% (up 0.01 percentage points), and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.02% (down 0.18 percentage points). - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.35% (down 0.07 percentage points), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.34% (down 0.1 percentage points). [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. - As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. - As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises this week. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 in the short - term [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase in stockpiling, with the bonded warehouse maintaining inventory reduction and the general trade inventory increase narrowing. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing have decreased month - on - month, and the port's outbound rate has decreased month - on - month less than the inbound rate [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. This week, as enterprises gradually end maintenance and enter the production recovery stage, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 60; the 9 - 1 spread is - 875 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,095 yuan/ton, with a change of 25; the 8 - 9 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 35. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 152,032 lots, a decrease of 835; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 28,278 lots, a decrease of 2,644 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 20,439, a decrease of 15; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,400, a decrease of 187. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 188,760 tons, a decrease of 30; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 35,583 tons, an increase of 1,311 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 13,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,720 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,232 yuan/ton, an increase of 4; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 65.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 62 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.52. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 47.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.3 [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 152.4 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.75%, a decrease of 1.89; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.41%, a decrease of 7.64. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.45 days, a decrease of 1.48; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.48 days, a decrease of 1.67 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.02%, a decrease of 0.07; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.68%, an increase of 0.05. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is 23.45%, a decrease of 0.8 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping [2] - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.63 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.85 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.12 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% compared with May and an increase of about 29% compared with the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. There are still weather disturbances in Yunnan, with firm raw material purchase prices. In Hainan, the tapping operations are gradually resuming, but the supply is still lower than the same period in previous years. The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse continuing to reduce inventory and the general trade inventory increasing at a narrowing rate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, but this week, as the enterprise maintenance ends, production will gradually recover, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was -875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread was -10 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,915 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 152,867 lots, with a daily decrease of 793 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,922 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,750 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -20,424 lots, with a daily increase of 969 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was -6,213 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,790 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 188,790 tons, with a daily decrease of 30 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 34,272 tons, with a daily increase of 1,512 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shanghai rubber basis was -35 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -120 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,228 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 4 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 158 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 65.2 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.35 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.52 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 47.8 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.65 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 152.4 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 15 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 6.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 5.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, with a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, with a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly full - steel tire operating rate was 63.75%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points; the weekly semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.41%, with a decrease of 7.64 percentage points. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.45 days, with a decrease of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.48 days, with a decrease of 1.67 days. - The monthly output of full - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, with an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, with an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.08%, with a daily decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a daily decrease of 1.2 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.25%, with a daily increase of 1.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From July 6th to July 12th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, it was mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and southern Thailand, and the impact on tapping decreased slightly. South of the equator, it was mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the impact on tapping increased slightly. - As of July 6th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40%. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan production area, there are still weather disturbances, with high raw material purchase prices. In the Hainan production area, due to continuous precipitation, the rubber - tapping operation has recovered slowly, and the raw material supply is limited. The overall supply is affected [2]. - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase. The bonded warehouse is in a state of destocking, while the general trade inventory has a narrowing increase. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering the warehouse have decreased month - on - month, and the downstream demand has weakened [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, and some enterprises reduced their production loads. This week, as the maintenance of enterprises gradually ends, production will gradually recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3]. - The RU2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the NR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,950 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 13,970 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,040 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 153,660 lots, up 827 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 32,672 lots, down 1,047 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 21,393 lots, up 2,510 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 4,423 lots, up 1,688 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 188,820 tons, down 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 32,760 tons, up 3,024 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 155 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,232 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 192 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 65.55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.11 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 62.52 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 48.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 152.4 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, down 5.8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.18%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.09%, down 0.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.09%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber - tapping work in the northern part of the equator decreased slightly, while the impact in the southern part of the equator increased slightly [2]. - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 632,400 tons, up 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [2]. - In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

（7月7日）今日全国天然橡胶 价格一览表 上一交易日，天胶主力合约收跌0.36%，20号胶主力收跌0.41%，上海现货价格下调至14000元/吨附近， 基差走扩。 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 海南宝 | 13970 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 浙江万方贸易有限 | | （SCRWF） | | 岛 | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 公司 | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 广垦 | 13970 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 浙江万方贸易有限 | | （SCRWF） | | | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 公司 | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 海南宝 | 13970 | 市场 | 山东省/青 | 上海泰邦国际贸易 | | （SCRWF） | | 岛 | 元/吨 | 价 | 岛市 | 有限公司 | 期货市场上看，7月7日 ...