Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, quantitative strategies are recommended over subjective ones in private securities investment institutions [1] - The private securities investment fund industry in China is characterized by increasing industry concentration with significant advantages for leading institutions, and an enhanced trend of diversified and international investment strategies [23][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Background - Affected by geopolitical conflicts and US tariff policies, the global stock market rose in the first half of 2025. A-shares showed an "N-shaped" trend, Hong Kong stocks performed better, and US stocks achieved a "V-shaped reversal". By the end of June 2025, the number of A-share listed companies reached 5,420, an increase of 37 from the end of 2024, and the total market value exceeded 100.02 trillion yuan, hitting a record high. The Beizheng 50 Index soared 39.45% in the first half of the year, leading the world in terms of gains. Industries such as non-ferrous metals (17.93%) and enterprise services (16.85%) led the rise, while industries such as coal (-10.02%) and real estate (-6.52%) faced pressure [4] - Chinese private securities investment funds are privately raised from qualified investors and mainly invest in publicly traded financial assets. They have more flexible investment strategies compared to public funds, lower liquidity, and can achieve differentiated returns through personalized strategies. Their operation must meet strict standards for qualified investors and emphasize the principle of self-risk assumption [5] - The development of Chinese private securities investment funds has evolved from disorderly exploration to standardization and specialization. Since 2025, driven by structural opportunities in the A-share market and excess returns from quantitative strategies, the issuance of private securities funds has recovered. In the first half of the year, over 5,400 new products were filed, with the filing scale increasing by 75% year-on-year [6] Market Status - As of the end of August 2025, the outstanding scale of Chinese private securities investment funds reached 5.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.4% of the total scale of private funds, a 6.5% increase from 5.24 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2025. Stock strategies dominate, and diversified strategies such as quantitative hedging and macro strategies are also developing rapidly. In July 2025, 1,313 new private securities funds were filed, with a scale of 79.281 billion yuan, a record high for the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 5,461 new filings were made, a 53.6% increase year-on-year, reflecting a significant trend of funds "entering the market through funds" [7][8] - As of the end of August 2025, there were 7,722 private securities fund managers, 385 fewer than at the end of 2024, mainly due to regulatory cleanup of "fake private funds". Geographically, Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen account for over 50% of the total number of managers, and their management scales account for 25.2%, 23.2%, and 9.7% respectively [9] - The market demand for private securities funds shows a trend of diversification and stratification. The number of qualified investors has continued to expand, covering high-net-worth individuals, insurance funds, pensions, and foreign institutions. Insurance funds are accelerating the allocation of equity assets through pilot programs, and foreign institutions are also increasing their layout in the A-share market. Investor demand is significantly differentiated, with conservative funds preferring low-volatility products such as quantitative hedging and macro strategies, and aggressive funds focusing on stock long strategies. Market structural opportunities and policy guidance also affect the flow of funds and drive the continuous iteration of private securities fund strategies [10] Market Competition - The selection of the top ten private securities investment institutions follows a multi-dimensional quantitative evaluation model, with core indicators including management scale and stability, historical performance, and excess return ability [11] - The current industry competition shows a pattern of "siphoning by leading players" and "strategy differentiation". Leading quantitative private funds dominate with technical barriers and excess return ability. In 2025, the number of 10-billion-yuan quantitative private funds reached 41, exceeding that of 10-billion-yuan subjective private funds (40) for the first time. In the first half of the year, the average yield of quantitative private funds was 13.54%, significantly higher than that of subjective private funds (5.51%). Quantitative strategies perform well in volatile markets, while subjective strategies face challenges [12] - Ten institutions, including Gao Yi Asset, Orient Harbor, and Ningbo Magic Square Quantitative, are introduced, each with its own characteristics in terms of management scale, investment strategy, and core team [13][14][15] Development Trends - The Chinese private securities investment fund industry shows a significant "Matthew effect", with leading institutions having significant advantages in terms of funds, talent, technology, data, and trading systems. The number of 10-billion-yuan private fund managers has exceeded 100, and their share of the total industry management scale continues to rise. Small and medium-sized private funds face survival pressure, and foreign private funds are accelerating their localization layout, intensifying industry competition and promoting the concentration of resources to leading institutions [23] - With the deepening of China's capital market reform and the enrichment of financial derivative tools, private securities investment strategies are developing in a diversified direction from traditional stock long to quantitative hedging, macro strategies, event-driven, and cross-border investment. Regulatory authorities encourage private funds to serve the real economy and introduce long-term funds, and the cooperation between private funds and financial institutions such as securities firms and banks is deepening. In the future, strategy innovation and international layout will become core competitiveness [24]

Core Insights - The equity market has returned to a volatile pattern in the past two weeks, with some quantitative and subjective long strategies facing withdrawal pressure, while macro strategies have shown an overall upward trend [1] - As of August 2025, there are 187 macro strategy products with performance data, achieving average returns of 18.68% year-to-date and 5.58% in August, ranking 4th among 16 private equity secondary strategies [1][2] - The proportion of macro strategy products achieving positive returns in August rose significantly to 88.12%, compared to 67.42% in July [1] Summary by Category Macro Strategy Performance - Macro strategies have demonstrated resilience with a year-to-date average return of 18.68% and an August average return of 5.58%, ranking 4th among various strategies [2] - The positive return rate for macro strategies in August was 88.12%, a notable increase from July's 67.42% [1] Top Performing Private Equity Products - In the top 10 private equity products under large private equity firms (over 50 billion), there are 43 macro strategy products with performance data this year [4] - The top three products are managed by 久期投资, with significant returns in August [5][6] - Notable fund managers include 吴星 from 昌都凯丰投资 and 李蓓 from 半夏投资, both of whom have achieved substantial returns this year [7][8] Small to Medium Private Equity Products - Among private equity products with assets under management of 0-50 billion, there are 144 macro strategy products, with the top 10 products having a performance threshold of ***% [10] - The top three products are managed by 京盈智投, 路远私募, and 嘉理资产, showcasing strong performance in the macro strategy space [11] Company Rankings - The top companies in macro strategy include 久期投资, 中安汇富, and 易则投资, with 中安汇富 achieving an average return of ***% this year [13][14] - 中安汇富 focuses on fundamental and pricing research, emphasizing a research-driven investment approach [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing popularity and strong performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy, highlighting its appeal to investors and the challenges faced in accessing these investment products [6][8][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900-point mark, indicating a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [5]. - Bridgewater's All Weather strategy products have shown exceptional performance, with the worst product line yielding annual returns between 10% and 14%, and an average return of approximately 16% [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The All Weather strategy relies on a risk parity model, diversifying across asset classes to achieve balance, which helps mitigate significant cyclical volatility while providing decent returns [9]. - The strategy's success is attributed to its ability to adapt to different market conditions, where typically, when the stock market declines, the bond market rises, and inflation-hedging assets like gold appreciate [9]. Group 3: Alternative Strategies - Several domestic managers have successfully localized the All Weather strategy, offering various macro-hedging strategies that replicate the classic risk parity model [10]. - The macro-hedging strategies focus on trading core assets in the US and China, utilizing a combination of beta (70%) and alpha (30%) models to capture short-term opportunities [10]. Group 4: Quantitative Models - The beta component constructs a macro risk-balanced investment portfolio based on economic growth and inflation, ensuring that no single asset class dominates the portfolio [11]. - The alpha component enhances returns through unique factor libraries and quantitative models, including CTA and multi-factor models, aiming to improve the overall Sharpe ratio and return-to-drawdown ratio [13]. Group 5: Risk Management - The strategies employ a systematic approach to risk management, with a focus on maintaining a balanced exposure across various asset classes while controlling overall portfolio volatility [18][25]. - The investment strategy covers a wide range of liquid assets, including equities, bonds, and commodities, with a target to keep overall volatility within 8% [24].

Core Insights - The equity market has returned to a volatile pattern, with some quantitative and subjective long strategies facing withdrawal pressure, while macro strategies have shown an overall upward trend [2] - As of August 2025, there are 187 macro strategy products with performance data, achieving average returns of 18.68% year-to-date and 5.58% in August, ranking 4th among 16 private equity secondary strategies [2][3] - The proportion of macro strategy products achieving positive returns in August rose significantly to 88.12%, compared to 67.42% in July [2] Performance Summary by Strategy - Macro strategies have 187 products with year-to-date average returns of 18.68% and August average returns of 5.58% [3] - The top-performing strategies include: - Long-short strategies with 777 products, year-to-date average returns of 35.67% and August returns of 8.95% - Subjective long strategies with 1974 products, year-to-date average returns of 30.08% and August returns of 9.19% [3] Top Private Equity Products - In the top 10 private equity products with over 50 billion in scale, there are 43 macro strategy products, with the top 10 threshold for returns being ***% [5] - The top three products are all managed by Duration Investment, with significant returns in August [6][7] - Notable fund managers include Wu Xing from Changdu Kaifeng Investment and Li Bei from Banxia Investment, both of whom have extensive experience and have achieved high returns [7][8] Company Performance Overview - Among companies with at least three macro strategy products, the top three are Duration Investment, Zhong'an Huifu, and Yize Investment, with Zhong'an Huifu achieving an average return of ***% this year [13][14] - Duration Investment leads with five macro strategy products, while Zhong'an Huifu has six, indicating strong performance in the macro strategy sector [14]

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant volatility this week, but daily trading volume remains high at over 2.5 trillion [1]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy environment is showing signs of recovery, driven by dovish signals from Powell and a shift in major asset performance between China and the U.S. [4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has decreased, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies to navigate market fluctuations [3][4]. - Many macro strategies have reached new highs recently, with expectations for continued upward performance in the coming week [5][6]. Quantitative Strategies - The quantitative long equity strategy is expected to show mixed results, with potential for profit pullbacks due to high-frequency trading and market reversals [7]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations in individual stocks and indices [9]. Subjective Strategies - The subjective long equity strategy is anticipated to experience some pullbacks, particularly in sectors like precious metals, Hong Kong pharmaceuticals, and new energy [11]. - The overall market sentiment remains neutral to optimistic, with liquidity indicators showing a slight decline but still within a favorable range [13]. CTA Strategies - The quantitative CTA strategy is expected to show mixed performance, with those heavily invested in precious metals likely to perform better [14]. - The commodity market is experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly in precious metals, while overall market trends remain volatile [15][16]. Market Neutral Strategies - The market neutral strategy is expected to see mixed results, with alpha contributions being positive while hedging contributions may be negative [17]. Arbitrage Strategies - The arbitrage strategy is projected to perform steadily, with stable operations across various strategies despite rising volatility in stock and commodity markets [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - A-shares and commodities continue to rise. In the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - The dollar exchange rate rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, the dollar's weakness is difficult to reverse, and gold oscillates and accumulates momentum [6]. - The economic data released this week shows that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is better than expected, but the consumption growth rate in June declines, and investment has not yet exerted force [6]. - Non-ferrous metals are differentiated this week, with most experiencing corrections but overall remaining in a high-level oscillation [6]. - Black metals oscillate at a high level this week, but the rebound is not over [6]. - Nickel prices and stainless steel oscillate at a low level this week, and the market is still digesting inventory [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum operates at a high level, with the supply side providing strong support for prices [7]. - Alumina oscillates strongly in the short term and operates at a low level in the medium term [8]. - Aluminum alloy operates strongly in the short term and fluctuates within a range in the medium term [9]. - Finished steel prices oscillate strongly, and prices are expected to be strong from July to August [10]. Summaries by Category Macro Strategy - **Intraday View**: A-shares and commodities continue to rise; in the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Gold can be observed or a small amount of gold call options can be bought as the bottom position; hold the bought IO2509-C-3950; hold the sold CU2509-P-75000 position; hold RB2510 or HC2510 long positions or call options; reduce the protective put options while the nickel spot inventory decreases [6]. - **Core Logic**: The dollar rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, factors such as the expanding fiscal deficit and debt, tariff shocks, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts make the dollar's weakness difficult to reverse [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High-level operation, with the operating range of 20300 - 20600; in the medium term, high-level operation, with the operating range of 19200 - 21000 [7]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508-P-19300 [7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply-side reform in 2017 set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity was 44.139 million tons, with limited room for capacity increase. The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [7]. Alumina - **Intraday View**: Oscillate strongly, with the operating range of 3050 - 3200; in the medium term, operate at a low level, with the operating range of 2700 - 3500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, 17 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into operation, with obvious supply pressure. The improvement in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to drive an increase in alumina demand [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **Intraday View**: Operate strongly, with the operating range of 19800 - 20000; in the medium term, fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 19000 - 20300 [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [9]. - **Core Logic**: The current inventory is at a high level within the year, and the general rise in non-ferrous metals boosts the price of aluminum alloy [9]. Finished Steel (RB, HC) - **Intraday View**: Prices oscillate strongly; from July to August, prices are expected to be strong [10]. - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the bought in-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3000; continue to hold the sold out-of-the-money put options of rebar RB2510-P-2900; short the out-of-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3300 in the short term [10]. - **Core Logic**: The pressure on the raw material inventory of steel is expected to be marginally relieved after mid-July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and the production cost of steel to stabilize. The current explicit inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is low, and recent positive factors have boosted speculative sentiment [10].

Core Viewpoint - Macro strategy, based on macroeconomic analysis for asset allocation, has shown better investment performance during economic cycles, gaining increasing attention in recent years [2] Group 1: Macro Strategy Performance - In mature overseas markets, macro strategy is recognized as a core strategy for hedge funds, particularly excelling during market volatility, as exemplified by Bridgewater's Pure Alpha II, which rose approximately 11.3% in 2025 while the S&P 500 fell over 5% [2] - In the domestic market, macro strategy is still in its early stages but has been developing rapidly, with 131 macro strategy products showing performance in the last six months [2] - Although the average return for macro strategies was negative in May, the long-term performance is impressive, with an average return of 45.67% over the past three years, ranking fourth among all secondary strategies [2][3] Group 2: Performance Rankings - The top 20 macro strategy products in the last six months had a minimum return threshold of ***%, with an average return of ***% [4] - Notable products include "Luyuan Ruize Stable Growth" from Luyuan Private Equity, "Yize Global Macro No. 2" from Yize Investment, and "Duration Macro Multi-Strategy" from Duration Investment, which ranked in the top three [4][8] - Three products from billion-dollar private equity firms made the list, including "Honghu Stable Macro Hedge A" from Honghu Private Equity and "Lerui Stock-Bond Rotation No. 1" from Lerui Asset [4] Group 3: Yearly and Three-Year Performance - The top 20 macro strategy products over the past year had a minimum return threshold of ***%, with the top three being "Shenzhen Shanzhe Private Equity," "Duration Investment," and "Luyuan Private Equity" [9][13] - Over the past three years, the top 20 macro strategy products had a minimum return threshold of ***%, with "Luyuan Ruize Stable Growth" again leading the list [15][19] - The consistent performance of "Luyuan Ruize Stable Growth" across both six-month and three-year periods highlights its strong investment strategy [15]

Market Overview - After a rapid rise in the A-share market by the end of September 2024, the market has maintained a relatively high level of volatility over the past six months, with most major indices showing a decline [2] - The A-share indices mostly experienced a drop, with the small-cap index, CSI 2000, showing relative strength, while the Shanghai Composite Index barely closed in the green due to support from the banking sector [2] - The Hong Kong stock market performed relatively well due to cheaper valuations compared to A-shares and significant foreign capital inflows, while the US stock market saw slight declines due to high positioning and external shocks [2] Performance Summary - A-share indices performance over the past six months includes: - Shanghai Composite Index: +0.63% - Shenzhen Component Index: -5.38% - ChiNext Index: -10.38% - CSI 300: -1.95% - CSI 500: -3.09% - CSI 1000: -2.63% - CSI 2000: +2.92% - Hong Kong indices showed significant gains: - Hang Seng Index: +19.90% - Hang Seng Tech Index: +18.76% - US indices experienced slight declines: - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.88% - S&P 500: -2.00% - Nasdaq: -0.54% [4] Private Equity Fund Performance - Among the 507 private equity products with performance data available, the average return over the past six months was approximately 6.22%, while the average return over the past year was about 21.10% [5] - Equity strategy products accounted for over 80% of the total, with an average return of 6.57%, outperforming major A-share indices [5] - Quantitative long-only products showed an average return of over 11%, leading other strategy products, while macro strategy products followed closely with returns exceeding 9% [5] Top Performing Products - The top 10 quantitative long-only products significantly outperformed the A-share indices, with the leading product being "Longqi Stock Quantitative Long No. 1" managed by Longqi Technology, achieving near ***% returns over the past six months [7][9] - The top 10 subjective long-only products had an average return of 1.07% over the past six months, with "Rido Investment" leading the pack [10][14] - The top 10 multi-asset strategy products included "Honghu Stable Macro Hedge A Class" managed by Liang Wentao, which is the largest product by scale among the top performers [22][24] Investment Insights - Wang Wen from Rido Investment believes that the A-share market has completed its bottoming process and is entering a historical opportunity for value re-evaluation, predicting a significant upward trend [14][16] - The investment strategy focuses on five dimensions: low valuation, high cash flow, high dividends, industry growth, and positive fundamental changes, with a particular interest in the entertainment and financial sectors [16]

Core Viewpoint - The macro strategy is expected to perform well this week, with a recovery in various asset classes, including Chinese equities, bonds, gold, and oil, indicating a favorable environment for macro strategies [3]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy is anticipated to show improvement, benefiting from the recent rise in Chinese equities and bonds, as well as overseas assets [3]. - The macro strategy faced challenges in the first half of the year due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies, which disrupted the typical low correlation among major asset classes [3]. - Recent trends suggest a return to deep negative correlation among major assets, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies moving forward [3]. Quantitative Long Strategy - The quantitative long strategy is expected to yield absolute returns, with stable excess returns due to increased trading volume, surpassing 1 trillion in daily transactions [5]. - Over 50% of stocks are showing upward movement, and market volatility remains within a normal range, supporting alpha generation for quantitative strategies [5]. - However, there is a caution regarding small-cap valuations, which are at a three-year high, indicating potential pullback risks [5]. Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy is projected to perform well, particularly in growth styles, with some differentiation in specific returns [7]. - The overall market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with positive PMI data and a preference for growth over value stocks [7]. - Continued net inflows from southbound capital are noted, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech performing well, despite high PB valuations [7]. Market Neutral Strategy - The market neutral strategy is expected to remain stable, with consistent excess returns in the equity segment and no significant impact from the hedging side [9]. Stock Index CTA - The stock index CTA strategy is anticipated to perform well in both intraday and daily strategies, with differentiation among products due to signal cycles [12]. Commodity Strategy - The commodity strategy is expected to show a reversal in performance, with mixed results across different segments, particularly in precious metals [15]. - The commodity sector has seen a general upward trend, although volatility remains present, posing challenges for previously dominant short positions [15]. Arbitrage Strategy - The arbitrage strategy, including ETF and options arbitrage, is expected to see slight gains, while commodity arbitrage remains stable [17]. - The ETF market has experienced a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a favorable trend for overall strategy performance [17].