Economic Overview - The US second quarter GDP was revised up to an annualized growth rate of 3.8%, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending and a decline in imports[14] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 218,000, the lowest level since July, indicating resilience in the labor market[14] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, suggesting persistent inflation pressures[14] Market Reactions - US stock markets experienced a decline in the first three trading days of the week, but improved sentiment on Friday resulted in a mixed performance, with Intel shares rising nearly 20% due to potential investment news[12] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased to 4.18%, reflecting the impact of strong economic data on bond markets[12] Policy Developments - The Trump administration announced new tariffs ranging from 25% to 100% on imports of building materials, furniture, and patented drugs, effective October 1[11] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and proposed new tools to stabilize capital markets[13] Sector Performance - In China, industrial profits for large enterprises increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first eight months, with August showing a significant turnaround with a 20.4% increase[13] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets showed structural opportunities, particularly in technology and growth sectors, despite overall cautious trading ahead of the National Day holiday[15] Global Market Trends - Global stock indices displayed mixed performance, with European and Japanese markets showing strength while US and Chinese markets faced corrections[9] - Commodity prices generally rose, with natural gas and oil prices rebounding due to geopolitical factors and supply-demand expectations[9] Investment Strategy - A multi-asset FOF portfolio is recommended with a 60% allocation to equities, 30% to fixed income, and 10% to commodities, achieving an annualized return of 41.55%[8] - Investors are advised to focus on 10-year US Treasuries as a stable investment during the current interest rate cycle[47]

Group 1 - The report highlights a trend towards promoting high-quality development and innovative applications in various industries, with a focus on optimizing traditional sectors like petrochemicals and transportation while encouraging emerging fields such as artificial intelligence and digital consumption [2][12]. - Financial policies are directed towards supporting key areas such as technological innovation and small and micro enterprises, providing funding guarantees for industrial upgrades [2][12]. - The report notes that the semiconductor sector has shown significant growth, with various sub-sectors like semiconductor silicon wafers and equipment experiencing notable increases in their market performance [3][27]. Group 2 - The industrial policy emphasizes controlling overcapacity risks in the petrochemical sector and supporting the transformation of outdated facilities, while also promoting new technology demonstrations [13]. - In the artificial intelligence sector, the report indicates a push for increased R&D and innovation, particularly in consumer products like smart devices and AI applications [14]. - The automotive and parts industry is under scrutiny for product quality, with regulatory bodies conducting extensive quality checks to prevent irrational competition and ensure safety [15][17]. Group 3 - The transportation sector is integrating artificial intelligence, focusing on optimizing computing power supply and enhancing data sharing across various transportation infrastructures [18]. - The financial sector is encouraged to enhance its support for the real economy, particularly in financing technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [19]. - The report outlines a cultural and tourism consumption month initiative aimed at stimulating market activity through various promotional events and subsidies [20]. Group 4 - The report tracks asset prices, indicating that the semiconductor sector has outperformed others, with a weekly increase of 7.50% [24]. - Monthly performance data shows that the top-performing concepts include power batteries and lithium battery electrolytes, with significant increases of 20.44% and 19.97% respectively [28]. - Year-to-date performance highlights that concepts like optical modules and optical chips have seen substantial growth, with increases of 115.10% and 93.65% respectively [34].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a decline across all segments, with notable drops in sectors such as home appliances, beauty care, food and beverage, textile and apparel, retail, and social services, with weekly declines of -0.66%, -2.25%, -2.49%, -2.59%, -4.32%, and -5.92% respectively [2] - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are expected to boost tourism, with significant increases in orders for cross-province travel, car rentals, and self-driving tours, with Ctrip reporting a 45% year-on-year increase in cross-province orders for the National Day period [2][14] - The home appliance export sector continues to face challenges, with a 3.6% year-on-year decline in the number of units exported in August 2025, although the decline rate has narrowed [2] Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a comprehensive decline, with specific sectors like food and beverage and home appliances showing significant fluctuations in stock performance [2][12][13] Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report highlights the launch of a global cruise service ecosystem by Zhongxin Tourism, which has seen a 130% increase in cruise orders this year [14] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, focusing on enhancing supply and fostering digital consumption enterprises [15] - Haier's air conditioning production base in Thailand has commenced operations, with an annual capacity of 6 million units [14] - Ctrip reported a 125% increase in orders from South Korean tourists visiting China in the first half of 2025 [14]

正在举办的第四届数贸会以"人工智能+数贸"为主线，集中展示生成式AI、多模态感官交互等尖端技 术，观众可以现场体验机器人家政、AI数字陪跑、VR大空间等。 本届数贸会集聚218家相关企业，首发10余款新产品，推出100个数字消费场景体验，促进线上线下深度 融合。在培育新业态方面，数字消费正从规模扩张转向质量跃升。 通过创新消费场景，实现将数贸会展会流量充分转化为数字消费增量。这些创新实践生动诠释了技术赋 能如何催生新供给、激发新需求。根据商务部测算，2024年我国居民数字消费规模达到23.8万亿元，相 当于当年居民消费总额的44.2%，彰显其作为消费"新引擎"的重要地位。近日，商务部等8部门联合印发 《关于大力发展数字消费共创数字时代美好生活的指导意见》（以下简称《指导意见》），标志着我国 数字消费发展进入系统推进、全面升级的新阶段。 这份政策文件明确定义了数字消费的内涵，提出从供给创新、主体培育、生态优化、环境营造等方面发 力，以数字消费新供给激发消费新需求，努力构建高效协同的数字消费生态体系，为激发消费新潜力、 推动经济高质量发展提供了明确的行动指南。在供给端，政策鼓励增加人工智能终端产品有效供给，释 放 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：富国基金） 目录 Part 1：A股市场分析 Part 2：港股市场分析 Part 3：下周宏观事件关注 Part 1 A股市场分析 本周A股市场主要指数大多收红，产业面刺激下芯片半导体带动科创50表现尤为亮眼，上证指数等大盘宽基类涨幅相对有限，成交额也边际回落，主要系 节前效应所致。从宽基指数看，本周上证指数上涨0.21%，创业板指上涨1.96%，沪深300上涨1.07%，中证500上涨0.98%，中证A50上涨1.17%，科创50上 涨6.47%。风格上，成长、周期表现相对较好，消费、稳定表现较差。从申万一级行业看，表现相对靠前的是电力设备（3.86%）、有色金属（3.52%）、 电子（3.51%）、环保（1.06%）、传媒（0.63%）；表现相对靠后的是社会服务（-5.92%）、综合（-4.61%）、商贸零售（-4.32%）、轻工制造 （-2.71%）、纺织服饰（-2.59%）。从Wind热门概念板块来看，表现相对靠前的是半导体硅片（13.06%）、半导体设备（11.22%）、晶圆产业 （9.27%）、半导体（8.10%）、国家大基金（7.75%）；表现相对靠后的是旅游出行（ ...

据福州海关统计，今年前8个月， 福建省 平板显示模组出口150.1亿元，同比增长14.7%。 数据显示， 福建省 平板显示模组持续拓展海外新兴市场。前8个月， 福建省 平板显示模组对东盟 出口50.8亿元，同比增长34.9%，其中对越南、泰国分别出口30.9亿、15亿元，同比分别增长 57.8%、9%。同期， 福建省 平板显示模组对拉美地区出口27.1亿元，同比增长90.6%，其中对 墨西哥出口20.4亿元，同比劲增111.1%。 在出口方式方面，以加工贸易为主，前8个月出口123.8亿元，同比增长16.6%，占同期 福建省 平板显示模组出口总值的82.5%。 在 外商投资企业出口 方面 ，前8个月 福建省 外商投资企业出 口平板显示模组126.3亿元，同比增长18.1%。 除福建省出口端表现亮眼外，从整体看，2025 年前 8 月国内显示相关终端产品同样势头良好 ——9月22日，商务部电子商务司负责人表示，2025年1-8月我国家电和数码产品线上销售额增 长较快,其中智能穿戴、电脑和手机等数字产品增长25.2%、23.7%和20.2%。 值得关注的是，政策层面也为数字消费及相关产业发展注入动力。近期，商务部 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7] Core Insights - The launch of the Shangjie H5 model has seen significant pre-order success, with over 10,000 orders within the first hour and a total of 160,000 pre-orders, indicating strong market demand [3][12] - The U.S. has implemented a 15% tariff on EU automobiles, which may impact pricing and competitiveness in the market [13] - Chery Automobile has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 9.14 billion HKD (around 8.38 billion RMB), marking it as the largest IPO in the Hong Kong market for the year [13] - Leap Motor has achieved a milestone of producing its 1 millionth vehicle in just 343 days, with revised sales targets for 2025 set between 580,000 to 650,000 units [14] - GAC Group is accelerating its European expansion, entering markets in Switzerland, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia [16] - The new brand "Qijing" by GAC and Huawei targets young consumers, focusing on smart driving and high-quality electric vehicles [15] Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.07%, while the automotive sector saw a modest gain of 0.11%, ranking 6th among A-share industries [4][23] - The passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.18%, with companies like Seres and Changan leading the gains [4][26] - The commercial vehicle index fell by 2.15%, with Shuguang and Hanma Technology showing strong performance [4][30] - The automotive parts index rose by 1.10%, with New Coordinates and Kebo Da leading the sector [4][30] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for domestic high-end luxury cars is exceeding expectations, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely is identified as a beneficiary [4] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong, and beneficiaries including Kebo Da, Huayu Automotive, and Fuyao Glass [4]

与传统消费乏力形成鲜明对比的是新兴需求的爆发式增长。商务部明确指出，2025年1-8月数字消费、 绿色消费等新型消费持续壮大，智能穿戴、智慧健康等产品成为消费热点，限额以上单位体育娱乐用品 零售额同比增速达16.9%。这种"传统遇冷、新兴火爆"的分化，本质是居民消费从"生存型"向"品质 型"转型的必然结果——传统供给体系难以满足个性化、场景化、智能化的新需求，而数字技术恰好搭 建起需求与供给的衔接桥梁。《指导意见》的出台正是对这一矛盾的精准回应，通过构建数字消费生 态，让技术创新真正服务于美好生活需要。 近日，商务部等八部门联合印发《关于大力发展数字消费共创数字时代美好生活的指导意见》（下文简 称《指导意见》），提出14项具体任务举措。据商务部测算，2024年我国居民数字消费规模达23.8万亿 元，已是一个相当于当年居民消费的44.2%的重要经济概念。这次的《指导意见》既是对消费升级趋势 的主动回应，更是培育新质生产力的战略布局。在内外需协同承压的背景下，数字消费有望成为经济增 长的"稳定器"，其政策红利预期可惠及亿万消费者与市场主体。 当前我国消费市场正经历深刻变革，数字消费是对传统消费市场困局的一次战略破 ...

近日，商务部等8部门联合印发《关于大力发展数字消费共创数字时代美好生活的指导意 见》，提出"丰富数字消费领域供给"，鼓励企业加速研发创新，增加人工智能终端产品有效 供给，释放人工智能手机、电脑、智能机器人、可穿戴设备、桌面级3D打印设备等新产品消 费潜力。 进入AI时代，数字消费正突出地表现为三大颠覆性特征。首先是智能化与个性化。传统消费 市场受限于生产体系的刚性，容易出现供需错配问题。而AI通过深度学习用户行为数据，能 够实现消费供给的精准化与个性化。一些平台基于深度学习的推荐系统分析用户偏好，实 现"千人千面"的购物体验，不仅深入到商品匹配，更延伸到用户的生活方式与价值观层面。 其次是场景化与沉浸式。AI与VR、AR、数字孪生等技术融合，创造出超越物理限制的消费 场景。泰山景区的登山助力机器人让八旬老人攀登6000级台阶；敦煌研究院的"数字藏经 电成为标配，提供便捷、舒适、安全的居住环境；智能网联汽车、无人驾驶技术改变出行方 式，使出行更加高效、环保。在教育、医疗等公共服务领域，AI提供更公平、优质、高效的 服务。 总之，人工智能时代的数字消费已不仅是技术变革的产物，更是经济转型升级的载体。当AI 深度融 ...

数字经济已经是经济发展中不可或缺的重要部分，数字经济产业已成为中国经济稳定增长的重要引擎。 中国信息通信技术研究院发布的报告显示，2023年，我国数字经济规模达到53.9万亿元，较上年增长3.7 万亿元，增幅扩张步入相对稳定区间。 中国数字经济规模持续扩大，占GDP比重显著提升，成为经济增长的重要支撑。根据国家数据局的数 据，2024年，我国数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP比重达10%左右，集成电路、人工智能、工业软件、 基础软件取得长足进步，实施数字化转型工程，中国"灯塔工厂"数量占全球比重超四成，智能产品、直 播电商等成为消费新热点。 我国数字经济提档加速，数字消费近年来发展迅猛。数字消费是推动中国数字经济发展的关键动力，也 是持续扩大内需、提振消费的重要力量，包括网络购物、网络直播、数字文化、在线医疗等，随着大数 据、AI产业的技术不断升级迭代，以及应用场景的不断扩大，数字消费不断得到新发展，为经济发展 注入了一股新的动能。 此次发布的指导意见从四个方面入手发展数字消费，一是丰富数字消费领域供给。扩大数字产品消费， 提升数字服务消费，创新数字内容消费，拓展数字消费渠道，以数字消费新供给激发消费新需求。二是 ...