Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 85.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) showed a robust growth of 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a 16% increase in Hong Kong and an 8% increase in mainland China when adjusted for economic assumptions [1][2][3]. - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9-11% in earnings per share (EPS) from 2023 to 2026 [1]. - The Southeast Asian market, particularly Thailand and Singapore, demonstrated strong growth in NBV, driven by regulatory changes and improved agent productivity [4]. Summary by Sections New Business Value (NBV) Performance - In Q1 2025, the NBV in Hong Kong increased by 16%, continuing a trend of double-digit growth despite a high base from the previous year [3]. - In mainland China, the NBV saw a stable growth of 8% when excluding the impact of economic assumption adjustments, although it faced a decline of 7% due to a reduction in long-term investment return assumptions [2]. Market Expansion and Channel Performance - The agent channel contributed significantly to the company's NBV, with a 21% year-on-year growth, accounting for over 75% of the total NBV [1]. - The company is expanding its operations in mainland China, with new approvals to operate in provinces such as Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to USD 0.63, USD 0.70, and USD 0.78 respectively, with a target price maintained at HKD 85 based on book value and embedded value methods [5]. - The projected gross premium income for 2025 is USD 20.524 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.27% [7][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company's value rate in life and health insurance business significantly improved in Q1, driving NBV growth of 34.9% year-on-year, with strong performance from bancassurance and community financial service channels [1][9] - The quality of the property insurance business improved significantly, with the combined cost ratio decreasing by 3.0 percentage points to 96.6%, leading to substantial growth in underwriting profit [1][5] - On the asset side, the company increased its allocation to high-dividend stocks, and the performance of OCI stocks in Q1 was impressive, contributing to an improvement in overall investment return rates year-on-year [1][6] Financial Performance - The company reported a 2.4% year-on-year increase in operating profit to 37.91 billion yuan in Q1, with life and health insurance business operating profit up 5.0% to 26.86 billion yuan [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.4% year-on-year to 27.02 billion yuan, primarily due to a fair value loss of 21.8 billion yuan in Q1, compared to a fair value gain of 34.49 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] Life and Health Insurance - The NBV for life and health insurance increased by 34.9% year-on-year to 12.89 billion yuan, driven by an improvement in the NBVM by 10.4 percentage points to 32.0% [3][4] - The first-year premium used to calculate NBV decreased by 19.5% year-on-year to 45.59 billion yuan [3] Multi-Channel Development - The company has effectively built a multi-channel professional sales capability, with significant results from various channels [4] - The agent channel saw a 14.0% year-on-year increase in per capita NBV, despite a high base from the previous year [4] - The bancassurance channel experienced a remarkable 170.8% year-on-year increase in NBV [4] Property Insurance - The underwriting profit for the property insurance business increased by 755.5% year-on-year to 2.76 billion yuan, driven by a 3.0 percentage point decrease in the combined cost ratio to 96.6% [5] - Insurance service revenue for the property insurance business increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 81.15 billion yuan, with original insurance premium income rising by 7.7% to 85.14 billion yuan [5] Asset Management - The overall investment return rate improved year-on-year, primarily driven by OCI stocks [6][7] - The company's investment portfolio reached over 5.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3% from the beginning of the year [7] - The allocation to high-dividend stocks was increased, with the scale of other equity instruments growing rapidly [7] Other Business Segments - The banking business reported a 5.6% year-on-year decrease in net profit to 8.17 billion yuan, mainly due to a 13.1% decline in operating income [8] - The asset management business saw a 19.2% year-on-year increase in net profit to 1.09 billion yuan [8] - The financial empowerment business reported a net loss of 2.87 billion yuan, with a significant impact from one-time gains and losses related to the consolidation of Ping An Health [8] Investment Recommendation - The company is viewed positively for its long-term investment value, with a current valuation at a low level and sufficient margin of safety [9] - The estimated growth rates for NBV in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 23.0%, 14.1%, and 13.9%, respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a steady growth in operating profit, with a year-on-year increase in new business value (NBV) of 35% driven by an improvement in value rate [1] - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders to be 135.2 billion, 154.4 billion, and 177.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 913.79 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 85.665 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 7.42 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.92 [1][21] - The projected net asset value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is 57.64 yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.89 [21] Business Segment Analysis - In the life insurance segment, the NBV reached 12.9 billion yuan, with a comparable year-on-year increase of 34.9% [1] - The property and casualty insurance segment saw a premium growth of 7.7%, with a combined cost ratio improving by 3.0 percentage points to 96.6% [1] - Investment income showed a non-annualized comprehensive investment return of 1.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Capital Strength - The net asset at the end of Q1 2025 was 939.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.2% increase from the beginning of the year [1] - The solvency adequacy ratio for life insurance improved significantly, with core and comprehensive solvency ratios rising to 164% and 228% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's operating profit showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) of 35% driven by an improvement in value rates [1] - The report highlights a decline in net profit attributable to the parent company by 26.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the downturn in the bond market and the consolidation of Ping An Good Doctor [1] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit for 2025-2027 will be 135.2 billion, 154.4 billion, and 177.0 billion respectively, maintaining previous profit forecasts [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 913.79 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 85.665 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% [1] - The company's net assets at the end of Q1 2025 reached 939.7 billion, an increase of 1.2% from the beginning of the year [1] Business Segment Analysis - Life Insurance: The NBV margin increased by 11.4 percentage points to 28.3%, with individual insurance and bank insurance channels contributing significantly [1] - Property Insurance: The combined cost ratio improved by 3.0 percentage points to 96.6%, attributed to reduced disaster claims and risk clearance in credit insurance [1] - Investment: The non-annualized comprehensive investment return rate increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3% [1] Capital Strength - The core and comprehensive solvency ratios for life insurance improved significantly, reaching 164% and 228% respectively [1] - The company plans to issue up to 50 billion in domestic bond financing tools over the next three years to enhance capital strength [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, highlighting strong profit growth driven by investment performance and manageable impacts from economic assumption adjustments [3][4]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to see a significant increase in net profit, with A-share listed insurance companies projected to achieve a total net profit of CNY 347.6 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.7% [3][5]. - Investment performance is the primary driver of profit growth, contributing 94.5% to the pre-tax profit increase, while total investment income is expected to grow by 110% year-on-year [3][10]. - Economic assumption adjustments have a controllable impact on core indicators, with the investment return rate lowered from 4.5% to 4.0%, and the net value of new business (NBV) expected to decline between 5.4% and 36.2% [3][20][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment-Driven Profit Growth - The capital market recovery has significantly boosted the investment performance of insurance companies, leading to a substantial increase in net profit [5][10]. - The total investment income for A-share listed insurance companies is projected to reach CNY 781.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 110% [13][10]. 2. Economic Assumption Adjustments - The report indicates a cautious adjustment of economic assumptions, with the investment return rate reduced by 50 basis points to 4.0% [20][22]. - The adjustments are expected to have a limited negative impact on core indicators, with most insurance companies maintaining positive growth in embedded value (EV) [27][30]. 3. Liability Side: NBVM Driving NBV Growth - The NBV growth for listed insurance companies is projected to range from 17.8% to 127% year-on-year, driven by improvements in the new business value margin (NBVM) [3][42]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in new business growth across different companies, influenced by the "reporting and operation integration" policy [47][48]. 4. Asset Side: Strong Investment Performance - The report notes a significant increase in investment assets, with a year-on-year growth of 20.8% to CNY 18.15 trillion by the end of 2024 [3][10]. - The allocation towards bonds and equities has increased, reflecting a positive investment strategy among listed insurance companies [3][10]. 5. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in companies such as New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, AIA, and China Life, based on their strong performance and growth potential [3][10].

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 3 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 新华保险 2024 年年报点评：资负共振，NBV 和净利润高增 [Table_Title2] 新华保险（601336.SH） | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 601336.SH | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 58.03/27.68 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 1,370.27 | | 最新收盘价： | 51.98 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 1,084.01 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,085 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 新华保险发布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现归母净利润 262.29 亿元，同比+201.1%；营业收入 1,325.55 亿元，同比+85.3%；加权平均 ROE 为 25.88%，同比+17.94pp。基于 2024 年经济假设（投资收益率下调 50bps 至 4%，普通寿险 RDR ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][21]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 88.2%. The property and casualty insurance premium income grew by 4.3% year-on-year, while the combined ratio (COR) increased by 0.9 percentage points to 98.5%. The life insurance new business value (NBV) reached 5 billion yuan, with a comparable year-on-year growth of 114.2% [1][9]. - The health insurance NBV was 6.5 billion yuan, with a comparable year-on-year growth of 143.6%. The total investment yield was 3.9%, down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the total investment return was 5.6%, up by 2.3 percentage points [1][9]. Summary by Sections Property and Casualty Insurance - The property and casualty insurance segment showed stable growth, with insurance service revenue increasing by 6.1% to 485.2 billion yuan. However, profitability slightly declined, with the COR rising by 0.9 percentage points to 98.5%, primarily due to increased liabilities and claims costs influenced by disasters and interest rates [2][3]. - In the auto insurance sector, service revenue grew by 4.5%, and the COR improved by 0.1 percentage points to 96.8%, benefiting from the "reporting and handling together" policy [2]. Life Insurance - The life insurance segment saw a significant increase in NBV, driven by improved value rates. The new business volume for long-term insurance decreased, but the proportion of regular premium business is expected to rise, contributing to value rate improvements [8][9]. - The health insurance segment's NBV growth was driven by both volume and price, with individual long-term insurance new business contributing significantly to the overall growth [8]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 621.97 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 44.66 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 4.2% [9][10]. - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 1.01, 1.08, and 1.20 yuan, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" for A-shares and maintained as "Buy" for H-shares [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a strong growth in life insurance with a 127% year-on-year increase in NBV (New Business Value), driven by improved profit margins despite a slight decline in new premium income [2][16]. - The overall profitability is supported by significant investment performance, with a projected ROE (Return on Equity) of approximately 16.5% for 2024, the highest in nearly a decade [4]. - The property insurance segment experienced a slight increase in the combined ratio, primarily due to natural disaster impacts, but is expected to normalize in 2025 [3][16]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance increased by 127% year-on-year, with agent and bancassurance channels growing by 86% and 223% respectively [2]. - The profit margin for NBV improved significantly to 18% from 8% due to a reduction in channel costs and adjustments in assumptions [2]. - The company anticipates a 17% growth in NBV for 2025, supported by ongoing improvements in profit margins [2]. Property Insurance - The combined ratio for property insurance rose by 1 percentage point to 98.8%, influenced by natural disasters [3]. - The auto insurance segment maintained a stable combined ratio of 96.8%, while non-auto insurance saw an increase to 101.9% due to rising claims [3]. - A return to normal disaster frequency is expected in 2025, with a projected combined ratio of approximately 98% [3]. Investment Performance - The total investment return rate improved significantly to 5.6% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023, leading to over 100% growth in investment income [4]. - The company’s net assets increased by 11% year-on-year, indicating good asset-liability matching [4]. - The dividend per share (DPS) for 2024 is set at RMB0.18, up from RMB0.16 in 2023, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of about 19% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS (Earnings Per Share) forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB0.93, with target prices for A/H shares raised to RMB7.90 and HKD4.70 respectively [5][8]. - The company’s projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB537.7 billion, with a growth rate of 6.71% compared to 2023 [7][23]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is RMB42.15 billion, representing an 88.83% increase year-on-year [7][23].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in net profit and dividends per share (DPS) for 2024, exceeding expectations, indicating strong financial performance and investor returns [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 26.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 201.1%, with a fourth-quarter profit of 5.55 billion yuan, showing substantial improvement compared to a loss of 0.83 billion yuan in Q4 2023 [1][2]. - The annual DPS reached 2.53 yuan, up 197.6% year-over-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.1%, maintaining a level similar to 2023 [1][2]. New Business Value (NBV) and Premiums - The company reported an NBV of 6.253 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 106.8%, with a first-year premium growth rate of 14.6% [3]. - Long-term first-year premiums reached 27.22 billion yuan, up 15.6% year-over-year, accounting for 70.1% of total premiums [3]. Investment Returns - The company achieved net, total, and comprehensive investment returns of 3.2%, 5.8%, and 8.5%, respectively, with total investment income significantly boosted by fair value changes amounting to 37.5 billion yuan [4]. - The proportion of OCI assets increased to 30.7%, with a notable rise in high-dividend OCI equity investments [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from improved agent quality, product structure optimization, and a higher proportion of equity investments, leading to greater investment return elasticity [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 27.9 billion yuan, 29.3 billion yuan, and 30.8 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 6.5%, 5.1%, and 4.9% [5].

财险量升价减，大灾阶段性影响赔付表现。24 年公司保险服务收入yoy+8.1%至1913.97 亿元，COR 达 98.6%，yoy+0.9pct；其中，综合赔付率/综合费用率yoy+1.7pct /-0.8pct 至70.8%/27.8%，承保利润yoy- 35.5%至26.72 亿元。1）车险：保费yoy+3.7%至1073.02 亿元，COR 受大灾影响yoy+0.6pct 至98.2%，承 保利润yoy-22.5%至18.68 亿元。新能源车险保费贡献占比达17%。2）非车险：保费yoy+10.7%至939.41 亿元，COR 受自然灾害频发影响+1.4pct 至99.1%，承保利润yoy-53.5%至8.04 亿元。 投资表现亮眼。2024 年权益市场反弹带动投资收益高增，公司净/总/综合投资收益率分别为 3.8%/5.6%/6.0%，yoy-0.2pct/+3.0pct/+3.3pct；期末，公司投资资产yoy+21.5%至2.73万亿元，债权类资 产、股权类资产、现金及现金等价物、定期存款、投资性房地产占比分别为 75.9%/14.5%/1.5%/6.4%/0.3%，较23 年末水平+1.4pc ...