Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, stated that generally, the appreciation of the yen could lower import costs and prices [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the yen is expected to have a positive impact on import costs [1] - Lower import costs may lead to reduced prices for consumers [1]

Group 1: Trade Statistics with the US - In April, Japan's exports to the US amounted to 1.7708 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.8%, marking the first decline in four months [1] - The decline in exports is attributed to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, including a 10% reciprocal tariff and a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles and steel [1] - Despite the decrease in export value, the volume of automobile exports increased by 11.8%, reaching 125,817 units, continuing a four-month growth trend [1] Group 2: Import Statistics from the US - Japan's imports from the US in April totaled 990.2 billion yen, a decrease of 11.6%, influenced by high-priced and volatile aircraft imports [2] - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports fell by 50.7%, and coal imports decreased by 43.8% [2] - The trade surplus with the US was 780.6 billion yen, an increase of 14.3%, continuing a four-month growth streak [2] Group 3: Overall Trade Balance - Japan experienced a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen in April, the first deficit in three months, with exports growing by 2.0% to 9.1571 trillion yen and imports decreasing by 2.2% to 9.273 trillion yen [2] - Exports of semiconductor electronic components, food, and pharmaceuticals increased, while coal and crude oil imports decreased [2] - Coal import volume decreased by 8.9%, and import value decreased by 38.6%, while crude oil import volume increased by 0.2% but value decreased by 10.1% [4]

Core Viewpoint - In the fiscal year 2024, Shimadzu achieved record revenue for the fifth consecutive year, reaching 539 billion yen (approximately 26.88 billion RMB), with a year-on-year growth of 5% [1][2]. Financial Performance - Despite the challenging environment in fiscal year 2024, Shimadzu reported a slight decline in net profit by 1% to 71.7 billion yen (approximately 3.58 billion RMB) [2]. - In Q4 of fiscal year 2025, Shimadzu's revenue and profit both reached new highs, with revenue increasing by 6% to 154.8 billion yen (approximately 7.74 billion RMB) and profit rising by 12% to 24.7 billion yen (approximately 1.23 billion RMB) [2]. Regional Market Analysis - Japan remains the most significant revenue source for Shimadzu, accounting for 43.5% of total revenue in fiscal year 2024 [5]. - The Chinese market experienced a decline, with revenue falling by 9% to 91.3 billion yen (approximately 4.56 billion RMB) [5]. Segment Performance - The Analytical and Measuring Instruments segment saw a revenue increase of 3% to 347.9 billion yen (approximately 17.4 billion RMB), but operating profit decreased by 9% to 52.1 billion yen (approximately 2.61 billion RMB) due to rising R&D and labor costs [8]. - Core products (LC, MS, GC) had a global sales increase of 3% to 190.5 billion yen (approximately 9.53 billion RMB), with a 7% growth in regions outside China [9]. Strategic Actions - Facing multiple challenges, including tariffs, rising raw material costs, and increased competition from local brands, Shimadzu forecasts a decline in operating profit for fiscal year 2025 to approximately 515 billion yen (about 25.76 billion RMB) and a 19% drop in net profit to 58 billion yen (approximately 2.9 billion RMB) [11]. - The company plans to enhance the promotion of high-value-added products and adjust sales strategies based on regional tariff impacts [11][12]. - In the U.S. market, Shimadzu will implement short-term price adjustments and increase local inventory, while long-term strategies will focus on optimizing sales through its U.S. production base [11]. Innovation and Future Growth - Shimadzu is celebrating its 150th anniversary and aims to contribute to society through science and technology, focusing on healthcare, green energy, and industrial sectors [16]. - The company is set to launch over 10 new products to enhance performance and provide new value to customers [13].

Core Insights - Japan's exports to the US in April amounted to 1.7708 trillion yen, a decrease of 1.8%, marking the first decline in four months, potentially influenced by the tariffs initiated by the Trump administration [1] - The export value of automobiles from Japan to the US was 513 billion yen, down 4.8%, although the export volume increased by 11.8% to 125,817 units, continuing a four-month growth trend [1] - Japan's trade surplus with the US reached 780.6 billion yen, an increase of 14.3%, continuing a four-month growth streak [2] Summary by Sections Exports to the US - In April, Japan's total exports to the US were 1.7708 trillion yen, down 1.8% year-on-year, the first decline in four months [1] - The automobile export value was 513 billion yen, a decrease of 4.8%, while the export volume rose by 11.8% to 125,817 units [1] - Steel exports fell to 18 billion yen, down 29.0%, with a volume decrease of 20.3% [1] Imports from the US - Japan's imports from the US in April totaled 990.2 billion yen, a decrease of 11.6%, primarily due to reduced imports of high-priced and volatile items like aircraft [2] - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports dropped by 50.7%, and coal imports decreased by 43.8% [2] Overall Trade Balance - Japan recorded a trade deficit of 115.8 billion yen in April, the first deficit in three months, with exports growing by 2.0% to 9.1571 trillion yen and imports decreasing by 2.2% to 9.273 trillion yen [2] - Exports of semiconductor electronic components, food, and pharmaceuticals increased, while coal and crude oil imports decreased [2] - Coal import volume fell by 8.9%, with a value decrease of 38.6%, while crude oil import volume increased by 0.2%, but the value decreased by 10.1% [2]

花旗分析师指出，随着高关税推动美国通胀上升，美国不会寻求类似1985年广场协议那样的广泛协议来削弱美元，而是将强调央 行在货币政策上的作用，在贸易谈判中可能会要求包括日本在内的亚洲经济体货币升值。 在G7财长会议前夕，花旗银行警告称美国政府不太可能"积极追求"弱势美元政策，但随着美国与其贸易伙伴达成降低关税的协 议，美元仍存贬值风险。 据追风交易台消息，花旗在5月20日的报告中指出，随着高关税推动美国通胀上升，美国不会寻求类似1985年广场协议那样的广泛 协议来削弱美元，而是将强调央行在货币政策上的作用，在贸易谈判中可能会要求包括日本在内的亚洲经济体货币升值。 根据环球时报，日美两国政府计划在本周于加拿大举行的七国集团（G7）财长与央行行长会议后，举行第三轮日美关税谈判。而 在周二开始的G7会议之前，货币政策早已成为焦点。日本财政大臣周二早些时候表示，他正在安排在G7会议期间与美国财政部长 贝森特举行双边会议，讨论包括外汇在内的议题。花旗策略师写道： 花旗指出，日本货币基于实际有效汇率明显偏弱，且其外汇储备规模位居世界第二。日本的经常账户盈余也很大，反映了国内需 求不足的问题。在美国将进行贸易谈判的一系列国家 ...

01 5月19日，据彭博报道，在美日财长本周谈判前夕，对冲基金和长期投资者正重新建立押注日元升值的头寸，创下五年高位，而且期权市场也显示出投资 者对日元升值的预期。 2. 国有六大行今日集体下调存款利率 一年期定期存款利率均下调15个基点 中行、农行、工行、建行、邮储银行、交行今日均宣布下调了存款利率，降幅均保持一致。 3. 5年期以上LPR下降10个基点 100万元房贷30年减少2万元 最新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）今日出炉，五年期LPR下调至3.5%，此前为3.6%。如以商贷额度100万元、贷款30年、等额本息还款方式计算，此次 LPR下降10个基点，月供将减少56元，30年月供累积减少2万元。 基金经理最新动态 1. 万亿公募高管变更，徐勇卸任 5月19日晚间，招商基金发布高级管理人员变更公告显示，公司总经理徐勇因个人原因离任，由招银理财总裁钟文岳接任。 02 今日基金新闻速览 1. 日元多头又回来了，华尔街重新押注日元升值 ETF方面，港股创新药板块全天强势，景顺长城基金港股创新药50ETF、广发基金港股创新药ETF、港股通创新药ETF工银、万家基金港股通创新药ETF 基金均涨超5%，易方达基金恒 ...

日元多头又回来了，华尔街重新押注日元升值。 关税谈判讨论汇率预期引发市场重新定位 在上周美韩关税谈判期间，讨论汇率问题的消息之后，日元已经显著走强。加藤胜信的这一表态，进一步提振投资者押注日元升值的预期。 5月19日，据彭博报道，在美日财长本周谈判前夕，对冲基金和长期投资者正重新建立押注日元升值的头寸，创下五年高位，而且期权市场也显示 出投资者对日元升值的预期。 野村国际驻伦敦G10货币交易主管Antony Foster表示，有关日本在关税谈判中可能会讨论汇率的猜测，吸引日元买家回归，目前已经看到对冲基金 以及更长期的投资机构开始出售美元/日元和其他日元交叉货币对。 报道称，日本财务大臣加藤胜信（Kato Katsunobu）5月16日表示，本周将寻求机会与美国财长贝森特进行汇率方面的对话。据环球网称，日美两 国计划在本周于加拿大举行的七国集团（G7）财长与央行行长会议后，举行第三轮日美关税谈判。 在今天的亚洲早盘交易中，美元/日元一度下跌0.6%至144.81，部分原因是穆迪下调美国的信用评级，引发了美元下跌。 首先对冲基金做多日元。根据商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据，截至5月13日当周，杠杆基金持有2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in the Japanese yen against the US dollar in April have drawn market attention, primarily influenced by the US government's trade policies and economic data, leading to a historical high in net long positions for the yen [1][3][8]. Exchange Rate Fluctuations - In April, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar fluctuated from approximately 149 yen to 139 yen, a movement of nearly 10 yen [1][8]. - As of May 1, the yen was trading around 143 yen to the dollar, showing a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - Leveraged funds and asset management firms have significantly increased their net long positions in the yen, reaching the highest level since data collection began in 1992 [1][3]. - As of April 22, speculative institutions held a net long position of approximately $157 billion in yen, marking a continuous increase over three weeks [3]. Impact of US Policies - The market is reacting to the US government's potential influence on the dollar's value, with concerns about the administration's desire to weaken the dollar [2][5]. - The US's announcement of high tariffs on trade partners has led to a temporary strengthening of the yen, which later reversed due to policy shifts from the Trump administration [6][8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the yen has appreciated, the sustainability of this trend is uncertain, with potential volatility if the US reintroduces pressure on Japan regarding currency valuation [9][12]. - The current environment indicates a structural demand for selling yen, which could limit the currency's rebound potential [13].

三菱日联：即使日本央行对加息持谨慎态度，日元仍可能走强 金十数据4月28日讯，三菱日联的Lee Hardman在一份报告中表示，即使日本央行在周四的会议上对进一 步加息持谨慎态度，日元仍有升值空间。鉴于美国加征关税，预计日本央行将下调今年的经济增长和核 心通胀预期。不过，这些预测仍应显示，下一财年通胀仍将接近目标水平，预示着进一步加息。全球经 济增长放缓将促使美联储在内的其他主要央行进一步降息，继续缩小与日本的收益率差异，所以日元可 能会进一步走强。 ...

"即便进一步朝着日元贬值、美元升值的方向发展也不足为奇，但目前的动向看起来比较迟缓"， 日美财长会谈并未提及纠正日元贬值、美元升值的具体措施，但对美国的不信任感依然存在回购 美元的动向有限…… "美国方面完全没有提及外汇水平目标以及相关框架的话题"，日本财务相加藤胜信在与美国财政 部长贝森特会谈后的记者会上如此表示。关于作为特朗普关税政策相关谈判的一环而举行的日美 财长会谈，之前市场上有很多人猜测美方会要求日方纠正日元贬值、美元升值。 其中，令人担心的是像1985年的《广场协议》那样，由主要国家协调合作采取行动纠正美元升值 的"第二个广场协议"，也被称为"马阿拉歌协议"。实际上，此次会谈并没有提出纠正美元升值的具 体措施，只是确认了"汇率由市场决定"等内容。 市场对美国的不信任感依然存在。4月以后，围绕对等关税反复无常的应对，加上有报道称特朗 普考虑解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，加剧了市场的担忧。抛售美元的趋势加速，4月22日，日元汇率 一度升至139日元左右的水平。创下了2024年9月以来的日元升值、美元贬值新高。 由于市场动荡，特朗普否认解雇鲍威尔等，试图平息事态，但代表美元相对于主要货币的综合实 力的美元指数年 ...