1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The market risk sentiment has converged, but the trading focus remains on geopolitical factors. The demand logic for gold investment remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile pattern due to the slight cooling of risk sentiment [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. US President Trump announced an agreement framework on the Greenland issue with NATO Secretary-General Lute. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO members. Trump will not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1st. Affected by this news, US stocks rose sharply, with all three major indexes rising more than 1%. The EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22nd local time [1]. - Economic outlook: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1063.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram, a change of 3.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 1097.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1091.80 yuan/gram, a 0.05% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 23,660.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23,131.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 870,541 lots, and the open interest was 301,919 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 23,037 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,938 yuan/kilogram, an 0.83% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 21, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.239%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.661%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 14,122 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 6,877 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 546,827 lots, a change of 93.32% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -4,635 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,634 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,948,125 lots, a change of 23.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,222 tons, an increase of 149 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 21, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -709.99 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 47.22, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 49.36, a change of -1.58% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 21, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 95,478 kilograms, a change of 108.84% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 422,976 kilograms, a change of -1.38% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1070 yuan/gram - 1150 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram - 23,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory I. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From January 15 to January 21, 2026, the base price of thermal coal showed a continuous decline, starting from -100.40 yuan/ton on January 15 and dropping to -115.40 yuan/ton on January 21 [2]. II. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Energy Commodities**: - **Base Price**: For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, the base prices on January 21 were 62.33, -0.58, and 64.30 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio of crude oil to asphalt was 0.1395 on January 21 [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rubber was - 680 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, LLDPE - PVC was 1896 yuan/ton [9]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rubber on January 21 was - 345 yuan/ton [10]. III. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 5 - month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for rebar was - 780.30 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot rolled coil) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, rebar/iron ore was 3.96 [19]. - **Base Price**: The base prices of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of rebar on January 21 was 143.0 yuan/ton [20]. IV. Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic base prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of copper on January 21 was - 1270 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 21 were given. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (29.11), and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83 [31]. V. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: The base prices of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were presented. For example, the base price of soybeans No.1 on January 21 was - 152 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 5 - month) for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread for soybeans No.1 was - 41 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) were given for different dates from January 15 to January 21, 2026. For instance, on January 21, soybeans No.1/corn was 1.89 [37]. VI. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: The base prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 15 to January 21, 2026 were provided. For example, the base price of CSI 300 on January 21 was 0.27 [49]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were given. For example, for CSI 300, the next - month minus current - month spread was - 57.4 [51].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月20日星期二 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周二，豆油主力05合约午后收于8032（日变动36或0.45% ）。我国油脂库存下降叠加南方冻雨影响以及马棕油高频数据利多 等多重因素推动油脂价格短期走强。而中加释放贸易积极信号，南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily summary of futures arbitrage data for various commodities on January 21, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from January 14 - 20, 2026, shows a change from - 100 yuan/ton to - 112 yuan/ton [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 14 - 20, 2026, with values like 0.1410, - 0.58, etc. [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis: Data for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., rubber basis changed from - 310 yuan/ton to - 320 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - period spreads: For 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month of rubber, methanol, etc. For example, rubber's 5 - month minus 1 - month is - 645 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis: Data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., rebar basis on January 20 is 159.0 yuan/ton [20] - Inter - period spreads: For rebar, iron ore, etc., including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month [19] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., copper basis on January 20 is - 740 yuan/ton [27] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on January 20, 2026 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis: Data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc., from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., soybeans No.1 basis on January 20 is - 178 yuan/ton [35] - Inter - period spreads: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc., including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month [35] - Inter - commodity spreads: Spreads like soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn on different dates from January 14 - 20, 2026 [35] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis: Data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 14 - 20, 2026, e.g., CSI 300 basis on January 20 is 10.28 [46] - Inter - period spreads: For CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., including next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - quarter [48]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report [1][5][21][27][38][48] 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures on January 20, 2026, presenting basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data for multiple futures varieties [1] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On January 19, 2026, the basis was - 108 yuan/ton, showing a slight change compared to previous days [2] - **Inter - period Spread**: The spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 1.71 on January 19 [7] - **Price Ratio**: The price ratio data of relevant energy commodities were presented, like the price ratio of crude oil to asphalt being 1.01 on January 19 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period Spread**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of rubber was - 635 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the LLDPE - PVC spread being 1905 yuan/ton on January 19 [9] - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the rubber basis being - 45 yuan/ton on January 19 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spread**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month(10) - 1 - month", and "9 - month(10) - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of rebar was - 79 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio being 3.95 on January 19 [20] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the rebar basis being 140 yuan/ton on January 19 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the copper basis being - 160 yuan/ton on January 19 [31] 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: The LME premium/discount data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 19, 2026, were given, e.g., the copper LME premium was 67.55 [34] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio data of relevant non - ferrous metals on January 19, 2026, were presented, like the copper Shanghai - London ratio being 7.83 [34] - **CIF Price, Domestic Spot Price, and Import Profit/Loss**: The CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the copper import loss being 1357.81 [34] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the soybeans No.1 basis being - 161 yuan/ton on January 19 [38] - **Inter - period Spread**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton, the inter - period spreads of "5 - month - 1 - month", "9 - month - 1 - month", and "9 - month - 5 - month" were given, e.g., the "5 - month - 1 - month" spread of soybeans No.1 was - 6 [38] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were provided, such as the soybeans No.1/corn ratio being 1.89 on January 19 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on different dates from January 13 to January 19, 2026, were presented, like the CSI 300 basis being 5.86 on January 19 [49] - **Inter - period Spread**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the inter - period spreads of "next - month - current - month" and "next - quarter - current - quarter" were given, e.g., the "next - month - current - month" spread of CSI 300 was - 46 [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 19, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from January 12 - 16, 2026, shows values ranging from - 106 to - 100 yuan/ton, with 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads all at 0 [1][2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented, with values such as - 13.39, - 7.53, etc. for different dates [7] Chemical Commodities - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided, e.g., 5 - 1 spread for rubber is - 480 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - commodity spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given for January 12 - 16, 2026 [9] - Basis data for rubber, methanol, etc. from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [10] Black Metals - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown, e.g., 5 - 1 spread for rebar is - 73 yuan/ton [19] - Inter - commodity spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are provided for January 12 - 16, 2026 [19] - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, etc. from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented, with values like 360 yuan/ton for copper on January 16 [29] London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss for copper, aluminum, etc. on January 16, 2026, are provided [32] Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [38] - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, etc. are given, e.g., 5 - 1 spread for soybeans No.1 is 78 yuan/ton [38] - Inter - commodity spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. for January 12 - 16, 2026, are provided [38] Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 12 - 16, 2026, is presented [50] - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. are given, e.g., next - month - current - month spread for CSI 300 is - 40.6 [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 16, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data from January 9 to January 15, 2026, shows that the basis was - 102 yuan/ton on January 9, - 101 yuan/ton on January 12, and - 100 yuan/ton from January 13 to January 15. The 5 - 1 spread, 9 - 1 spread, and 9 - 5 spread remain at 0 [1][2]. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 9 to January 15, 2026, and related ratio data such as price ratios are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was - 3.18 yuan/ton on January 15 [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the basis of rubber was - 345 yuan/ton on January 15 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber was - 390 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1939 yuan/ton on January 15 [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the basis of rebar was 110 yuan/ton on January 15 [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar was - 40 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.87 on January 15 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the basis of copper was - 360 yuan/ton on January 15 [28]. London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 15, 2026. For example, the LME spread of copper was 37.60 on January 15 [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 253 yuan/ton on January 15 [36]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 was - 10 yuan/ton [36]. - Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on January 15, 2026. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.89 on January 15 [36]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 9 to January 15, 2026. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 4.83 on January 15 [47]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 6.0 [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

Report Investment Rating - Platinum: Neutral [3] - Palladium: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Platinum shows a continuous oscillation, while palladium requires continuous attention to tariff policy trends. In the medium - term, the upward trend of platinum and palladium in the first quarter remains unchanged. The structural tightness in the spot market of platinum and palladium persists, and the tight balance of the spot market remains the core fundamental factor supporting prices. However, it is still necessary to monitor the impact of tariff policies on the prices of silver, platinum, and palladium [3][5] Summary by Directory Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Trading Volume and Position in Guangzhou Futures Exchange**: As of the end of this week, the total position of Guangzhou platinum is 39,590 lots, and the trading volume this week is 317,912 lots; the total position of Guangzhou palladium is 15,024 lots, and the trading volume this week is 122,569 lots. The position volume further decreased. Currently, the trading volume and position volume of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The monthly spread of palladium showed an obvious C - structure last week, and the PT08 contract was the price trough [9] - **Overseas Futures - Spot Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract converged and remained inverted, with the spread at $4.2 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract was slightly at a discount, with a weekly average of - $7 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract generally widened this week but converged to - $41 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract also converged overall, occasionally showing a positive value [12][14] - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - **Platinum Futures - Spot Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 8.8 yuan per gram, and the spread is 6.98 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [16] - **Palladium Futures - Spot Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 6.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 72.1 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 65.4 yuan per gram [18] - **Platinum Near - Far Month Inter - Month Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 8.0 yuan per gram, and the spread is - 2.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [20] - **Palladium Near - Far Month Inter - Month Positive Arbitrage**: The cost is 6.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 0.4 yuan per gram, so the arbitrage window is not open [22] - **Platinum Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage**: The cost is 70.5 yuan per gram, and the spread is 85.9 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 15.4 yuan per gram [24] - **Palladium Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage**: The cost is 59.3 yuan per gram, and the spread is 73.9 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 14.6 yuan per gram [26] - **Platinum Import Parity Calculation**: The cost is 65.7 yuan per gram, and the spread is 116.1 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 50.4 yuan per gram [28] - **Palladium Import Parity Calculation**: The cost is 55.2 yuan per gram, and the spread is 93.2 yuan per gram, with a profit margin of 48 yuan per gram [30] - **Recycling End Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium回调, the recycling discount of platinum widened to - 100 yuan per gram this week, while the recycling discount of palladium remained at around - 50 yuan per gram [32] - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings decreased by 0.27 tons (about 0.86 million ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.46 tons (about 1.48 million ounces). The net outflow of platinum ETFs contrasts with the increase in palladium ETFs, but the increase rate of palladium ETFs has slowed down [34] Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past month, the overseas forward markets of both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discount of platinum and palladium has been continuously deepening. Platinum retraced slightly and then rebounded on Friday [39] - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - **Platinum**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 624,754.53 ounces, approximately 19.43 tons; the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased to 57% [41] - **Palladium**: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 211,305.82 ounces, approximately 6.57 tons; the proportion of registered warehouse receipts further decreased to 65% [44] - **China's Import - Export Data**: - **Platinum**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and imports and net inflows have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 557.17 tons. In November, imports decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data is not yet available [51] - **Palladium**: Since 2020, palladium has had almost no exports and is in a pure import state, with a cumulative net inflow of 162 tons. In November, imports increased to 3.02 tons, and the net inflow was 3.02 tons. December data is not yet available [51] - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: A negative supply - demand balance indicates that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, and the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the supply - demand balance of London platinum fixing was mostly positive, but reached - 90 kg on Friday. The supply - demand balance of London palladium fixing was positive throughout the week [52][53]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to remain weak in the medium to long - term due to sufficient supply, while the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) market will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the medium term [2][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 20895 lots in open interest; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7814 yuan/ton, up 0.08% day - on - day, with an increase of 2413 lots in open interest [2] - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 326 lots in open interest; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, up 0.57% day - on - day, with an increase of 1940 lots in open interest [2] - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day, with a decrease of 20113 lots in open interest; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 8943 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 977 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - In November 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (2.21 billion bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons in November last year [2] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared with the same period in November [2] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory addition program in the second half of 2026 [2] Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil has risen, boosting the strength of U.S. soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is under pressure due to negative rapeseed - related news; palm oil is oscillating due to a combination of inventory pressure and strong international crude oil; rapeseed oil has fallen rapidly due to China - Canada negotiation news [2][3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Vegetable oils are generally bearish but show some differentiation. Soybean oil is bearish, palm oil is oscillating in the medium term and bearish in the long term, and short positions in rapeseed oil should be held [3] - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil spread [3] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 31418 yuan/ton, down 1.03% day - on - day, with an increase of 2782 lots in open interest; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2875 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 3858 lots in open interest [3] - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 64896 lots in open interest; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2419 yuan/ton, down 1.87% day - on - day, with an increase of 7102 lots in open interest [3] Important Information - U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres in the 2026/2027 season [3][4] - As of December 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean exports to China in the 2025/26 season were 659,000 tons [4] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons [4] - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean harvest progress was 0.1% [4] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 season soybean sowing was 82% complete [4] - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 are expected to be 3.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 69% [4] Market Logic - Externally, the bottom of U.S. soybeans is supported, but the upside is limited. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has increased, while rapeseed meal has been affected by news and has seen a high - level correction [3][4][5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The two - meal market should maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset in the medium term and engage in intraday trading [5] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is proposed for now [5]