1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by multiple factors, with a neutral overall outlook. The main contract 05 of cotton faces significant pressure at the 15,000 mark, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term, suggesting a trading strategy of range - bound operation [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - holiday downstream restocking, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be regulated, with a possible reduction of over 10%. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 31%, and 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 16,183 yuan, with a basis of 1,513 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in December 2025/2026 to be 8.35 million tons, which is a negative factor [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the trend of the main force is unclear, which is a positive factor [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract 05 of cotton faces significant pressure at the 15,000 mark, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 in the short - term, suggesting a trading strategy of range - bound operation [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton production is 26.004 million tons, consumption is 25.891 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.217 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, and inventory among different countries [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 2025/2026 season, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, the import volume is 9.71442 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, the export volume is 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 5.65 [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, the production is 7.278 million tons, the import is 1.1 million tons, the consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,670 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 1.61% and a night - session close of 14,770 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.68%. CY2603 closed at 20,495 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.99% and a night - session close of 20,515 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 63.11 cents/pound with a 0.55% decline. The trading volume of CF2605 was 698,165 lots, an increase of 230,350 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,010,747 lots, a decrease of 75,779 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 12,530 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 5,889 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 10,289, an increase of 46, and the valid forecast was 1,084, an increase of 12. The number of棉纱 warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged, and the valid forecast was 7, a decrease of 7 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,694 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan or 1.51% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan or 1.52%. The price in Shandong was 16,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 79 yuan or 0.49%, and in Hebei was 16,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 83 yuan or 0.51%. The 3128B index was 16,183 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan or 0.50%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 0.00 cents/pound, a 100.00% decrease from the previous day. The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,430 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,027 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan or 0.03% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF3 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 remained unchanged at 1,020 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The basis of domestic cotton spot was generally stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF05 + 1150 and above, with a small amount lower, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The quotation of pure cotton yarn was generally stable, with no significant price fluctuations in mainstream specifications. The market trading was light. The shipment of medium - and low - count yarns slowed down recently, while high - count yarns and traceable orders were relatively strong. Some large factories had slightly accumulated inventory, with partial low quotations, and traders actively purchased [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell slightly, affected by the rising US dollar and the decline of other commodities [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 1, indicating a neutral trend [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, supported by fundamentals. The new - year market rumors of a production cut have some support for the cotton price, but short - term demand may have limited boost to the market due to the approaching Spring Festival [5][6]. - It is recommended to build long positions on dips in the unilateral trading of cotton, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In January, cotton futures prices were mainly volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose as new cotton processing was almost finished, and the rumor of a production cut in the new year supported the cotton price. The downstream orders were average, and the approaching Spring Festival led to limited short - term demand boost. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to remain range - bound [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, the supply in the current year is expected to remain loose, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new year. The expected reduction of Xinjiang's cotton planting area by 2660000 mu (7%) in 2026 may support the market. The market had some restocking before, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand boost was expected to be limited [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The cotton fundamentals are still strong, and there is upward space in the long - run. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7][11]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the first - part market review, in January, cotton futures prices were volatile and slightly stronger. The short - term supply was relatively loose, and the new - year production cut rumor supported the price. The downstream demand was average, and the Spring Festival limited short - term demand. US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to be range - bound [13]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 cotton season, the global cotton production was adjusted down by 80000 tons to 26 million tons compared to the previous month, with an increase in China (220000 tons) and decreases in India (110000 tons) and the US (80000 tons). The demand was adjusted up, and the ending inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to the USDA planting plan in February [14]. 3.2.3 United States - The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was adjusted slightly. The new - year cotton - grain ratio is not advantageous, and the planting area is likely to be reduced. As of January 15, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.6669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.91%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 755300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.98%. China's cumulative signing volume was 82400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 46.72%, and the cumulative shipment was 32900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.13%. As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the annual estimated production, with a slower progress year - on - year [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The CAI's report shows that as of December 31, 2025, the production in the 2025/26 season was adjusted up by 130000 tons, domestic demand by 170000 tons, and exports down by 50000 tons, leading to an increase in ending inventory by 10000 tons compared to the previous month. As of November 30, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton was 2.64 million tons, with a market progress of 49%, a year - on - year increase of 16%. - Brazil: As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in the 2025/26 season was 31.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the three - year average, mainly due to the stagnant planting in Bahia [18][22]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply: As of mid - January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.86 million tons, at a high level in the same period over the years. As of January 22, the cumulative picked lint cotton was 7.407 million tons, the cumulative sold lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase. In December 2025, the imported cotton was 177300 tons. The current internal - external price difference is around 2900 yuan/ton, and imported cotton has an advantage. - Demand: It is currently the off - season, and the approaching Spring Festival limits short - term demand. As of mid - January, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 931400 tons, the yarn inventory was 26.35 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.112 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, while external demand was average [24][25][26]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Market Outlook - Global: The cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be around 25 - 26 million tons, and in the 26/27 season, it is likely to be around 25.5 - 26.5 million tons. The demand is expected to change little. Attention should be paid to the USDA annual meeting's planting plan in February. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, the cotton supply is expected to be sufficient in the short - term, but there may be low - inventory trading factors in June - August. The new - year planting area is rumored to decrease, and the production in the 26/27 season may decline. The demand is expected to be neutral to slightly positive, with domestic demand likely to remain stable and exports possibly improving due to the easing of Sino - US relations [50][51].

棉花：维持偏强震荡 20260128 2026 年 1 月 28 日 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,565 | -0.58% | 14655 | 0.62% 0.71% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,420 | -0.46% | 20565 | | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.78 | 1.33% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 344,386 | -300,084 | 1,117,427 | -28,316 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 7,831 | -1,999 | 11,175 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton sales progress remains fast, and the sales volume is at a high level in the same period over the years. The improvement of Sino-US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills in the new year support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. The cotton yarn market continues to be weak in the short term. [6][10] - For trading strategies, it is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see. [8][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 45, and 55 respectively; CY01 remained unchanged, CY05 decreased by 30, and CY09 remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF05 increased by 154,281, and that of CY05 decreased by 195. [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 17 yuan/ton, Cot A was 74.55 cents/pound, and the price of (FC Index):M: to - port decreased by 0.40. Among yarns, CY IndexC32S remained unchanged, and the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged. [2] - **Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 105, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 95. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. [2] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **ON - CALL Data**: As of January 16, the number of unpriced contracts of the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers decreased by 477 to 19,274, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,449 to 40,722, equivalent to 920,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 52,321, equivalent to 1.19 million tons, an increase of 3,166 compared to last week, or 70,000 tons. [4] - **Brazilian Cotton Planting**: As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year, but 2 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. [4] - **US Cotton Inspection**: As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.8576 million tons, with an inspection progress of 97%, a 6% decrease year - on - year; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 79,800 tons, with an inspection progress of 94.5%, 18% slower than the same period last year. [5] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [9] - **Options**: Wait and see. [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The domestic market of pure cotton yarn has been sluggish recently, with little improvement. The price of cotton yarn is weak, and the discount for transactions continues to expand. Traders and fabric mills make small - scale purchases, and some fabric mills plan to start their holidays at the end of this month. It is expected that the trading volume will continue to decrease, and the cotton yarn market will remain weak in the short term. [10] Options - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, that of CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and that of CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. [12] - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is advisable to wait and see. [13][14] Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the price difference between domestic and international cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price differences of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9. [16][19][23]

研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 行业 棉花 日期 2026 年 1 月 27 日 ＃summary＃ 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 纯棉纱市场交投一般，贸易商和下游布厂刚需采购。近期溯源单逐渐下放， 个别纺企反馈排单已至 3 月。部分纱厂对后市较有信心，挺价意愿明显。全棉坯 布市场行情进入收尾阶段，由于多数厂商对节 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 ICE3 月合约结算价 63.81 跌 7 点，5 月 65.48 跌 1 点，7 月 66.97 持平；成交约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 5.9 万手。 郑棉总成交 423536 持仓 1162273。结算价 5 月 14725，9 月 14885，1 月 15340。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、海关统计数据，2025 年 12 月我国棉花进口量 18 万吨，环比（12 万吨）增加 | | | | | 6 万吨，增幅 51.3%；同比（14 万吨）增加 4 万吨，增幅 31.0%。2025 年 1-12 月 | | | | | 我国累计进口棉花 107 万吨，同比减少 59.1%。2025/26 年度（2025.9-2025.12） | | | | | 累计进口棉花 49 万吨，同比增加 2.1%。 | | | | | 2、16 日 2025/2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The downstream stocking willingness has increased, and textile mills have started to price one by one. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. Although the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information (First Part) - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15145 with a price increase of 5, and the CY05 contract closed at 20515 with a price decrease of 55 [2]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are given, such as the CCIndex3128B cotton price at 15856 yuan/ton with a decrease of 75, and the CY IndexC32S cotton yarn price at 21300 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Different types of price spreads are provided, including cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread is 620 with an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views (Second Part) - **Cotton Market News** - As of January 19, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 35,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33%. The inventory showed a small increase, with Brazilian and American cotton mainly for warehousing and no outbound shipments in the past half - month. The contract trading volume of the 2025/26 cotton season reached 621,520 tons as of January 6, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national output, and the pre - sale volume of the 2026/27 season was at least 73,000 tons [4]. - As of January 17, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 36.34%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4 percentage points, but slower than the same period last year and the average of the past three years, mainly due to stagnant planting in Bahia and slow planting in Mato Grosso [5]. - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.3% and a year - on - year increase of 31.0%. In the 2025/26 season (from September 2025 to December 2025), the cumulative cotton imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The cotton yarn imports in December 2025 were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 15.10% and a year - on - year increase of about 11.9%. The cumulative cotton yarn imports in the 2025/26 season were about 590,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 18% [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. Supported by bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals remain strong. After the recent significant correction, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [6]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate in a short - term range, and Zhengzhou cotton fundamentals remain strong, also expected to mainly fluctuate in a short - term range [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Wait and see [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with generally insufficient new orders and a weak market trading atmosphere. Some spinning mills reported a significant decrease in new orders, mainly fulfilling and digesting previous orders. Although foreign trade orders improved slightly, the boost to the overall market was limited [8]. - The sales of the whole - cotton grey cloth market remained the same as before, with prices mainly stable. In December 2025, the export volume of whole - cotton grey cloth was 48.85 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and the export value was 45.68 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 639 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 23.17%, and the cumulative export value was 613 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 9.34%. The import volume in December 2025 was 37.87 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 26.95%, and the import value was 8.57 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.72%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 350 million meters, a year - on - year increase of 15.82%, and the cumulative import value was 78.36 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [9]. 3.3 Options (Third Part) - The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities and other data of several cotton option contracts are presented. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC option contract closed at 334 on January 19, 2026, with a price decrease of 16.9% and an implied volatility of 13.3% [11]. - The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812 yesterday, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different options were different [11]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667 yesterday, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][14]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments (Fourth Part) - Multiple charts are presented, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the price spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the price spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [25][26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main 03 contract settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral and positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. The domestic cotton market has a mix of long and short factors. The expected supply tightening competes with poor downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. With uncertainties in overseas geopolitics and trade policies, the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is insufficient in the short - term, and it is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.66, down 5 points; 5 - month at 66.23, down 4 points; 7 - month at 67.65, down 4 points, with about 33,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 344,243 and an open interest of 1,142,326. The settlement prices were 14,555 for January, 14,570 for May, and 14,820 for September [2] 2. Important Information - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (51.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (31.0%). From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. From September to December 2025, cumulative imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. On the 16th, the listed volume of 2025/26 cotton in terms of lint was about 34,000 tons, mainly from Telangana, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI's daily auction was about 3,400 tons, far below the recent average. The 2024/25 S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 53,500 rupees per candy, equivalent to about 75.55 cents per pound. CCI's cumulative purchase of 2025/26 seed cotton in terms of lint was about 1.37 million tons, with a 2024/25 cotton inventory of 7,310 tons [2] 3. Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The domestic cotton market has a mix of long and short factors, and short - term Zhengzhou cotton is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan per ton and set a take - profit at 15,000 yuan per ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market has mixed factors. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, a positive basis, a favorable technical chart, and a bullish position of the main players. Negative factors include the expected high ending inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture for the 2025/26 season. After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is currently in a period of shock adjustment, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. - There are also some other influencing factors. Bullish factors include the pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and a reduction in export tariffs to the US. Bearish factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the large - scale listing of new cotton, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the USDA December report for the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is 2608.1 million tons, consumption is 2582.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1654.1 million tons. In November, China's textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. China imported 120,000 tons of cotton in November, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the December 2025/26 report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, China's cotton production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,972 yuan, with a basis of 1,297 yuan (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture expects an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons for the 2025/26 season in December, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Technical Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Player's Position**: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: After a rapid rise, the cotton 05 contract is in a shock adjustment period, with a short - term expected range of 14,500 - 15,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, production in China is expected to be 751.2 million tons, India 511.7 million tons, Vietnam 408.2 million tons, etc. Consumption, imports, and ending inventory data for different countries are also provided. For example, China's consumption is expected to be 849.1 million tons, imports 117.6 million tons, and ending inventory 776.5 million tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton area is 3041.385 million hectares, with a yield of 835.13 million tons, consumption of 971.442 million tons, and ending inventory of 1622.785 million tons [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 727.8 million tons, imports are 110 million tons, consumption is 810 million tons, and ending inventory is 1011.6 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.