交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。10月份我国棉 花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部12月25/26年度： 产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货31 ...

持续增仓， 多空博弈加剧 棉花周报 2025/12/13 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周美棉花期货价格窄幅震荡，截至周五美棉花期货3月合约收盘价报63.83美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.12美分/磅， 跌幅0.19%。价差方面，美棉3-5月差报-1.1美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.04美分/磅。国内方面，本周郑棉价格小幅上涨，截至周五郑棉5月 合约收盘价报13850元/吨，较之前一周上涨130元/吨，涨幅0.95%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报15062元/吨，较之前一周上涨40元/ 吨。基差报1215元/吨，较之前一周下跌90元/吨。郑棉1-5月差报-15元/吨，较之前一周下跌45元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：据Mysteel最新公布的数据显示，截至12月12日当周，纺纱厂开机率为65.5%，环比前一个周持 ...

研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉交投重心上移。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15013 元/吨，较 上一交易日涨 9 元/吨。当前 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 5 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15005 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 25 元/吨。当前 2025/26 年度北疆机采 3130/29~30B/杂 3.5 内一口价较 多报价暂在 14800~14950 公 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts all showed price declines. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13780, down 20, with a trading volume of 229,172 (an increase of 52245), and an open interest of 522,168 (a decrease of 21990) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15005 yuan/ton, up 69; the Cot A price was 74.95 cents/pound; the FC Index:M: arrival price was 74.07, down 0.09. The prices of some other spot products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and yarn markets, there were changes in inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 30, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6145, down 60 [2]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On December 3, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1940 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous period. In October 2025, Japan's clothing imports remained at a high level, with the import value reaching 364.853 billion yen (equivalent to 2.418 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 4.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%. On December 2, 2025, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.68 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. After the peak season, the market has entered a relatively off - season. Overall, the supply is abundant but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is average, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly, while cotton yarn futures fluctuated weakly, with an overall bearish profit outlook. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders and mostly small orders. High - count yarns still had good sales. The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market was weak, and fabric mills were mainly focused on inventory reduction. The anti - down fabric in Nantong Home Textile Market in Jiangsu still had continuous sales, but the profit margin was lower than expected [8]. Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, information such as the underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc. was provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract had a closing price of 183.00, a price increase rate of 71.0%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options [10][11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for cotton futures is a volatile upward trend. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, with cost support, the peak of inventory has passed, and there are expectations for a consumption recovery. As the 01 contract approaches delivery, trading will shift to the 05 contract. It is advisable to take short - term long positions on price dips [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC 11 - month report, the 2025/2026 cotton production is 25.4 million tons and consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA 11 - month report shows production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/2026 forecast in November includes production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Expected factors**: The reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the near - completion of domestic new cotton picking, and the end - of - year restocking by downstream enterprises. The short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak of inventory passed, there are expectations for a consumption recovery [6]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,980 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1225 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/2026 November report is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [7]. - **Positive factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has increased slightly, and commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The export tariff to the US has been reduced by 10% [8]. - **Negative factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have declined, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to enter the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the total global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory among different countries [15][16]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the area is 3041.385 million hectares, yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [18]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The cotton market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory outlook, a bullish trend on the trading chart, and a bearish bias in the main positions. Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the futures are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term. The trading focus will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: According to various reports, the 2025/26 cotton production is estimated to be 2540 - 2614.5 million tons, and consumption is 2500 - 2588.3 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were 222.62 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The rural ministry estimates 2025/26 production at 660 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 845 million tons [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14936, with a basis of 1211 (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/26 period in November to be 845 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Trading Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectations**: The tariff on exports to the US is reduced by 10%. Domestic new cotton picking is basically over, and downstream enterprises will replenish stocks at the end of the year. Short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak inventory passed, there are expectations for a recovery in later consumption. The futures will fluctuate upward in the short - term, and trading will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated to be 2614.5 million tons, consumption is 2588.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1653.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [12][13]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 2539.956 million tons, consumption is 2500.778 million tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons [15]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, production is estimated to be 660 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 845 million tons [16]. 5. Position Data The main positions in cotton futures are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market has an international supply situation with increased production in Brazil and a good harvest in the US. Domestically, new - cotton processing is faster, but textile companies are cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory. The recommended trading strategy is to close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 284,007 lots, and the open interest is 954,257 lots. The settlement prices for January, May, and September are 13,635 yuan/ton, 13,595 yuan/ton, and 13,715 yuan/ton respectively. The ICE December contract settlement price is 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract is 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract is 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with impurity within 2.8%. The basis transaction price of the 2601 contract is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price is 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures both increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning enterprises reported that the downstream sales had slowed down, the finished - product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Market Logic - Internationally, Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach 4.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 11.1%), and the export shipment volume remains high; the US production has been adjusted up to 3.07 million tons, and the harvest progress is slightly faster than the annual average. Domestically, the new - cotton processing progress is faster than the same period last year, and the improved quality indicators have significantly increased the sales rate. However, textile enterprises are still cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market comprehensively, concluding that the overall situation is neutral. The short - term futures are expected to fluctuate upwards due to factors such as the reduction of export tariffs to the US by 10%, the end of domestic new cotton picking, cost support, and the expectation of consumption recovery. The trading focus is shifting from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 25/26 cotton production and consumption. For example, ICAC estimates production at 2540 tons and consumption at 2500 tons; USDA estimates production at 2614.5 tons and consumption at 2588.3 tons; Rural Ministry estimates production at 660 tons, import at 140 tons, consumption at 740 tons, and ending inventory at 845 tons. In October, textile and clothing exports decreased by 12.63% year - on - year, cotton imports decreased by 15.6% year - on - year, and yarn imports increased by 16.7% year - on - year [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14882, with a basis of 1297 (05 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 25/26 period in November to be 845 tons, which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main trend is still bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, the end of domestic new cotton picking, cost support, and the peak inventory period passed, there is an expectation of consumption recovery. The futures are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There are production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data for multiple countries in different years. For example, in 25/26, the total production is estimated to be 2614.5 tons, total consumption is 2588.3 tons, and total ending inventory is 1653.2 tons [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 period, the production is 2539.956 tons, consumption is 2500.778 tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 tons [16]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 period, the production is estimated to be 660 tons, import is 140 tons, consumption is 740 tons, and ending inventory is 845 tons [17]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.