Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the cotton market is bearish, with factors such as expected supply increases, weak export performance, and a bearish trend in the market. However, the positive basis is a bullish factor. The report suggests a short - selling strategy on rallies for the main 01 contract [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 season. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts a production and consumption of 2550 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report predicts a production of 2562.2 million tons and consumption of 2587.2 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 244.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China's cotton imports were 7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, while cotton yarn imports were 13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14755, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1490, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture predicts an ending inventory of 822 million tons in the 25/26 season in October, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is ending, the market is sluggish, and new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing supply expectations. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23 million tons; consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.4 million tons; ending inventory is expected to be 1592.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 40 million tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 26 million tons (+1.6%); global trade volume is 970 million tons, an increase of 36 million tons (+3.9%) [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons [4][13]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

Core Insights - The cotton industry in Xinjiang is undergoing a transformation, moving from traditional harvesting methods to a more integrated and modernized supply chain, enhancing the quality and efficiency of cotton production [1][2][3] Group 1: Cotton Production - Xinjiang cotton farmers are achieving high yields, with many reporting an average output of over 500 kilograms per mu, and some exceeding 600 kilograms per mu [1][2] - The focus on selecting superior cotton varieties has significantly improved the quality of cotton produced in the region, benefiting both farmers and downstream industries [2][3] Group 2: Industry Development - The number of spindles in Xinjiang has reached approximately 30 million, accounting for 37% of the national textile industry, indicating the region's growing importance in the textile sector [4] - Major textile enterprises are establishing operations in Xinjiang, attracted by favorable policies and the availability of local resources, which enhances the overall competitiveness of the industry [3][4] Group 3: Financial Instruments and Risk Management - The introduction of cotton futures and options has provided essential financial tools for risk management, allowing farmers and textile companies to stabilize their operations and secure profits [5][6] - The "insurance + futures" model has helped bridge the gap between small-scale production and large markets, offering price guarantees to cotton farmers [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Affected by the external environment, ICE cotton futures closed lower, with the main 12 - month contract settling at 63.59 cents, a decline of 0.39%. The purchase price of seed cotton remains cautious, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan per kilogram. Downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, but the orders in the peak season are insufficient. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillating and bottom - building [1] 3) Summary by Related Content [Market Review] - ICE December contract settled at 63.59, down 25 points; March at 65.26, down 34 points; May at 66.56, down 33 points, with about 44,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 424,737 contracts, with an open interest of 839,493 contracts. The settlement prices of January, May, and September contracts were 13,285 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), 13,325 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and 13,510 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton) respectively compared to the previous day [1] [Important Information] - On October 11, in Kashgar, Xinjiang, the basis of hand - picked new cotton of Double 29 quality with less than 1.7% impurity for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was around 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,500 - 14,550 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous day [1] - According to US Department of Commerce data, in August 2025, US retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories (seasonally adjusted) were $27.183 billion, an 8.27% year - on - year increase (the adjusted figure in the same period last year was $25.106 billion) and a 1.02% month - on - month increase (last month was $26.908 billion) [1] - The warm and dry weather in the southwestern and south - central cotton regions of the US promotes harvesting, while thunderstorms in the southeastern cotton region pose a threat to the quality of boll opening [1] - As of September 25, according to local Brazilian industry institutions, the cotton picking progress in Brazil was about 99.7%, and the processing progress was 46% [1] - On October 11, the spot price of cotton yarn was stable. According to feedback from inland textile enterprises, new orders are generally sluggish in October, and there is always downward pressure on cotton yarn prices. Enterprises have difficulty making profits, so the cotton consumption is in a state of contraction [1] [Market Logic] - Due to external environmental impacts, ICE US cotton futures closed lower. The purchase price of seed cotton is cautious, and although downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, the peak - season orders are insufficient, resulting in Zhengzhou cotton oscillating and building a bottom [1] [Trading Strategy] - Hold the previous at - the - money straddle options of the 01 contract [1]

需求不振叠加套保压 力，郑棉延续下跌 棉花月报 2025/10/10 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，9月美棉花期货价格震荡下跌，截至9月30日美棉花期货12月合约收盘价报65.72美分/磅，较之前一月下跌0.81美分/ 磅，跌幅1.22%。价差方面，美棉12-3月差震荡，报-1.8美分/磅，较之前一月上涨0.1美分/磅。国内方面，9月郑棉价格下跌，截至9月30日 郑棉1月合约收盘价报13215元/吨，较之前一月下跌1025元/吨，跌幅7.2%。中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B报14862元/吨，较之前一月下 跌466元/吨。基差走强，报1643元/吨，较之前一月上涨515元/吨。郑棉1-5月差小幅走弱，报-30元/吨，较之前一月下跌70元/吨。 ◆ 行业信息：外盘方面，由于美国政府停摆，USDA数据暂停公布。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, cotton prices dropped significantly. The September USDA report had a neutral impact on the international market. In the US cotton - growing areas, there was a lack of rainfall. The US cotton had a good rate of high - quality and harvest. As of September 28, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, higher than 31% in the same period last year; the harvest rate was 16%, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The continuous harvest and listing of US cotton put pressure on cotton prices. Also, the US dollar index rebounded after a decline, and US crude oil and grains performed weakly, causing US cotton to fluctuate downward. [5] - In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and the import of cotton is relatively small. New cotton harvesting has started in some areas, but the listing volume is limited. The downstream demand has improved slightly but remains weak overall. The China Cotton Association shows that this year's domestic cotton output has increased to 7.216 million tons, reaching a new high since 2013. [5] - Due to the drag from the industry and the external environment, US cotton has weakened. The continuous consumption of domestic cotton inventory supports cotton prices. However, the gradual start of new cotton harvesting and the relatively soft downstream demand suppress the short - term decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures. In the medium - to - long - term, Zhengzhou cotton will also perform weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. The recommended operation is to short the 01 contract on rallies. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - As of the close on September 30, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 65.72 cents per pound, down 0.81 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.22%. The CF2601 contract closed at 13,215 yuan per ton, down 1,025 points from the previous week's close, with a weekly decline of 7.20% [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 US Cotton - The US cotton report is neutral. In 2025/26, the planting area increased by 20,000 to 9.3 million acres, the harvest area increased by 10,000 to 7.37 million acres, the yield per unit decreased by 1 pound to 861 pounds per acre, the output increased by 10,000 to 13.22 million bales, the total consumption remained flat at 13.7 million bales, and the ending inventory remained flat at 3.6 million bales [14] - The US cotton good - quality rate is acceptable. As of September 28, 2025, the US cotton good - quality rate was 47%, the same as the previous week and higher than 31% in the same period last year. The harvest rate was 16%, up from 12% the previous week, lower than 19% last year but the same as the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 67%, up from 60% the previous week, lower than 71% last year and 69% of the five - year average [17] - US cotton export sales are weak. As of the week of September 18, the export contract volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, a 54% decrease compared with the previous week and the average of the previous four weeks. The main buyers are India and Turkey, also including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Italy [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - The downstream spinning mill's operation rate has stabilized. As of September 25, the operation load of mainstream spinning enterprises was 66.6%, the same as the previous week. Before the National Day holiday, there was no large - scale stockpiling, new orders slowed down compared with the previous period, market confidence was insufficient, and spinning enterprises continued to maintain a reasonable inventory. The operation rate in the inland was 50% - 60%, and in Xinjiang, it was maintained at about 90% [24] - Downstream spinning enterprises continued to reduce inventory. As of the week of September 25, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning enterprises was equivalent to 27.70 days of storage. As of September 25, the yarn inventory of major spinning enterprises was 30.3 days, a 0.33% decrease from the previous period. This week, the de - stocking of finished yarn slowed down, downstream traders were cautious, and procurement was not active. The inventory of large - scale factories in Xinjiang was about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises was about 15 days [27] - Zhengzhou cotton inventory continued to decline. As of September 26, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 1.0315 million tons, a decrease of 111,100 tons (a 9.72% decrease) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 505,400 tons, a decrease of 59,200 tons (a 10.49% decrease) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 43,100 tons (a 14.76% decrease) from the previous week. As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 3.08% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 277,200 tons [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, while the price of the US cotton December contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.47% [5][11] - In the US cotton market, as of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 hands, non - commercial short positions increased by 2020 hands, and net short positions increased by 2771 hands compared to the previous week [11] - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has risen slightly, and the new cotton is gradually coming onto the market with a significant bumper harvest in the new year, increasing supply - side pressure. The orders of textile mills have not improved significantly, and the operating rate is still lower than the same period last year, and the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has not appeared [5] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose this week with a weekly increase of about 0.83% [5] - **Market Outlook**: In the US, less rainfall in cotton - growing areas is conducive to harvesting, and new cotton supply will put pressure on prices. In China, the supply - side pressure is increasing due to new cotton listing and a bumper harvest, while the demand side has not improved significantly [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [6] - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 1.47%. As of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 69367 hands (down 751 hands from the previous week), non - commercial short positions were 114787 hands (up 2020 hands), and net short positions were 45420 hands (up 2771 hands) [11] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: From September 18th, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 76.05 cents per pound, down 1.1 cents per pound from last week [15] - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.21%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 51037 hands, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 206 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2942, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [20][27][33] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14757 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20460 yuan per ton [39][51] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of October 9, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13965 yuan per ton (down 103 yuan per ton from last week), and the import cotton quota price was 12978 yuan per ton (down 168 yuan per ton). The import cotton yarn price index for different specifications is also provided [55] - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of October 9, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 774 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan per ton from last week), and that of imported cotton with quota was 1761 yuan per ton (up 45 yuan per ton) [58] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481700 tons (down 708100 tons from last month, a decrease of 32.34%), and the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892000 tons (down 6000 tons month - on - month). In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, down 80000 tons or 51.6% year - on - year), and the imported cotton yarn volume was 130000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, up 20000 tons year - on - year) [61][67] - **Mid - end Industry (Demand - Side)**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days (down 1.1 days month - on - month), and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days (down 2.3 days month - on - month) [70] - **Terminal Consumption (Demand - Side)**: In August 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars (down 5% year - on - year, down 0.8% month - on - month). Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars (up 1.5% year - on - year, up 6.8% month - on - month), and clothing exports were 14.15 billion US dollars (down 10.1% year - on - year, down 6.7% month - on - month). As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan (up 11.95% month - on - month), and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.2% [75][79] 3.4 Options and Stock - Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but specific data is not described in text [80] - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is shown, but specific data is not described in text [83]

【棉花市场消息速递】 国家发改委制定了2026年粮食进口关税配额申请和安排细则。2026年棉花进口关税配额总量为89.4万 吨，其中33%为国营贸易配额。 2024/25棉花市场年度结束。据海关统计，本年度中国实际进口量106万吨，较估值调增1万吨。本月对 新年度棉花产量、消费量和进口量维持上月预测不变。 10月9日，巴西CEPEA/ESALQ棉花价格指数报每磅65.77美分，较昨日下跌0.30%，较上月同期下跌 3.89%。 10月9日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.92 65.28 64.50 64.55 -0.42% 北京时间10月10日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格低位震荡，今日开盘报64.46美分/磅，现报 每吨64.41美分/磅，跌幅0.08%，盘中最高触及64.68美分/磅，最低下探64.37美分/磅。 棉花期货行情回顾： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized, while the spot price of cotton in 2025/26 in Xinjiang has slightly declined compared to before the holiday. The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, and the order situation of weaving enterprises is not good after the holiday. ICE cotton futures fell due to lack of fundamental support, a weak technical pattern, a stronger dollar, and falling crude oil prices [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,295 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.61% increase, and 13380 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.64% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,545 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.70% increase and 19755 yuan/ton in the night session with a 1.07% increase. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 64.46 cents/pound yesterday with a - 0.74% decrease. The trading volume of CF2601 was 333,284 hands, a decrease of 79,542 compared to the previous day; the trading volume of CY2511 was 2,815 hands, a decrease of 1,999 compared to the previous day [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,030, a decrease of 51 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast was 11, a decrease of 11. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,492 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.43 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent compared to the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spinning enterprises' willingness to purchase cotton spot is average, mostly buying as they use. The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton has stabilized, with the normal moisture purchase price ranging from 6 to 6.2 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. The spot fixed - price quotes of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season have slightly declined compared to before the holiday [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. During the long holiday, market transactions were weak, and cotton yarn prices were stable with a downward trend. Some spinning enterprises reduced prices for promotion. After the holiday, more weaving enterprises resumed production, but most reported that the in - hand order situation was average, and there was a lack of new orders after the holiday [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday. On the one hand, there was a lack of fundamental news to boost ICE cotton, and the technical pattern was weak. On the other hand, it was affected by a stronger dollar and falling crude oil prices [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for cotton is mixed, with both bearish and bullish factors. The market is expected to face increased supply as new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has passed halfway with a lackluster market performance. The short - term rebound of the main 01 contract after the holiday is mainly a technical rebound due to the previous price over - decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: National cotton production is expected to be 722 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 cotton season. For example, ICAC predicts a production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; USDA predicts a production of 25.622 million tons and consumption of 25.872 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, and棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,739, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1444, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in September by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main positions**: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, and the market is quiet. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main 01 contract rebounded after the holiday, mainly due to a short - term technical rebound after the pre - holiday price over - decline [4]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **USDA Forecasts**: In the 25/26 season, the total global cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 230,000 - ton increase from the previous forecast; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a 168,000 - ton decrease [9]. - **ICAC Forecasts**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 2.59 million tons, a 40,000 - ton (+1.6%) increase; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a 26,000 - ton (+1.6%) increase; and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a 36,000 - ton (+3.9%) increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Forecasts**: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production is 6.37 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [12]. 3.5持仓数据 No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The domestic cotton price is expected to remain under pressure in the short to medium term due to factors such as this year's cotton bumper harvest, low price expectations of farmers for seed cotton, weak downstream demand, and the influence of the macro - environment [2][3]. Summary by Directory Part I: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Weekly Data Overview**: As of October 07, the CRB commodity price index closed at 301.07 points, down 3.96 points from September 26. On September 30, the Wenhua Commodity Index was 162.02, down 1.78 points or 1.09% from September 26. The ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound on September 30, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. The Zhengzhou cotton main 01 contract closed at 13,215 yuan/ton on September 30, down 190 yuan/ton from September 26, with positions increasing by 635 lots to 535,000 lots [2][10][33]. - **Imported Cotton CNF Quotes**: From September 26 to September 30, the prices of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M imported cotton increased slightly, with the 1% customs - cleared and sliding - scale tax prices also rising [9]. Part II: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - **Textile Raw Material Trends**: On September 30, the prices of raw materials showed mixed trends compared to September 26. The prices of polyester staple fiber and CCI3128 increased slightly, while the prices of viscose remained unchanged, and the prices of Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [15]. - **Cotton Yarn Price Trends**: On September 30, the domestic yarn prices decreased compared to September 26, while the RMB - denominated prices of imported pure - cotton yarns increased slightly due to RMB depreciation. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns narrowed [18][20][23]. - **Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index**: On September 30, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,283 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the sliding - scale tax - included foreign cotton price was 1,059 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale tax) widened [26]. Part III: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of September 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 3,397 lots (146,000 tons), with 12 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 146,000 tons, down from 182,000 tons on September 26 [29]. - **Analysis of the Basis of Zhengzhou Cotton**: On September 30, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,563 yuan/ton, wider than on September 26 [30]. - **Analysis of Zhengzhou Cotton Prices**: The macro - environment shows that major economies are in an interest - rate cut cycle. During the National Day, the seed cotton purchase price stabilized. The current pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume, and the spinning mills' profit situation has improved slightly. The domestic cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the short to medium term. Technically, the indicators of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract have weakened [31][32][34]. Part IV: Analysis of the International Market - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 annual net signing of upland cotton decreased by 54% week - on - week, and shipments increased by 14%. The net signing of Pima cotton increased significantly week - on - week, and shipments of Pima cotton increased significantly compared to the previous week [40]. - **Analysis of ICE Cotton Futures**: On September 30, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was at 64.39 cents/pound, down 1.94 cents/pound or 2.9% from September 26. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a dead cross and diverged downward, and the technical indicators weakened [44]. Part V: Operation Suggestions - For upstream cotton enterprises, calculate the lint cost based on the seed cotton purchase price and hedge on the futures market or consider buying put options to hedge risks [46]. - For downstream spinning mills, when the raw material price drops, consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the lint purchase cost [46].