Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 2.3% in May, the lowest level since January 2022, driven by a decrease in service inflation and energy prices [2][3][5] - The Eurozone's inflation rate for May dropped to 1.9%, significantly lower than the 2.2% recorded in April, primarily due to a decline in service inflation from 4.0% to 3.2% [2][4] - Major Eurozone economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain reported inflation rates of 2.1%, 0.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively in May [4] Group 2 - The market fully expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% [6][8] - There is speculation that this may be the last rate cut in the current cycle, with future decisions potentially influenced by trade uncertainties and fiscal stimulus measures [6][8] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause further rate cuts after June, as they assess the urgency for additional monetary easing [7][8]

Core Points - Eurozone inflation in May was weaker than expected, leading to a slight increase in expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in July [1] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with a 31% probability for further cuts in July, up from 28% previously [1] - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone dropped from 2.2% in April to 1.9% in May, exceeding expectations [1]

金十数据6月3日讯，尽管全球贸易紧张加剧了较长期的价格压力，但周二数据显示欧元区通胀低于欧洲 央行目标，支撑了本周再次降息的预期。欧元区CPI从2.2%降至1.9%，低于预期的2.0%，原因是能源价 格下跌，服务业通胀大幅下降。欧盟统计机构欧盟统计局说，受服务价格增长从4.0%放缓至3.2%的推 动，更受关注的潜在通胀率（不包括波动较大的燃料和食品价格）从2.7%降至2.3%。鉴于薪资增长疲 弱、能源价格回落、欧元走强以及经济增长不温不火等指向通胀放缓的因素，市场几乎完全消化了周四 的降息。价格压力如此之弱，一些经济学家甚至预计通胀将继续低于欧洲央行2%的目标，直到2026年 的某个时候才会反弹。 欧元区通胀降至欧洲央行目标下方 支持本周降息预期 ...

欧元区通胀保持不变后，欧洲央行可进一步降息 金十数据5月2日讯，德国复兴信贷银行经济学家舍恩瓦尔德在一份报告中说，在数据显示欧元区4月份 通胀率保持在2.2%之后，欧洲央行应该可以自由地再次降息。她说，欧元走强使进口商品更便宜，再 加上贸易冲突对经济的抑制，应该足以在中期将消费者通胀率稳定在2%的目标附近。这为欧洲央行在6 月份再次降息留下了余地。然而，欧元区服务业的价格压力仍然居高不下，推高了核心通胀率。 ...

金十数据5月2日讯，荷兰国际集团经济学家Bert Colijn写道，欧元区通胀未来不太可能大幅下降，因为 经济的潜在弹性抵消了贸易关税的抑制作用。周五公布的数据显示，欧元区4月份物价同比上涨2.2%， 较前一个月保持稳定。Colijn说，贸易动荡和随之而来的能源价格下跌使通货膨胀率接近欧洲央行2%的 目标。但投资者不应指望未来几个月通胀会大幅下降。他表示："即使贸易战最初抑制了通胀压力，但 在劳动力市场强劲、工资增长高的情况下，增长良好的欧元区经济可能会在未来几个月让通胀保持在一 定程度上的高位。" 弹性经济支撑欧元区通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a strengthening of the euro against the dollar and an increase in European bond yields [1] Inflation Data Summary - April CPI year-on-year remained at 2.2%, higher than the forecast of 2.1% [1] - Core inflation rate accelerated from 2.4% in April to 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.5% [1] Market Expectations - Market continues to digest expectations of a further 60 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing potential inflationary pressures in the Eurozone due to U.S. trade tariffs, which may hinder global economic expansion [1] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone indicated that these tariffs could lead to a deflationary effect in the Eurozone in the short to medium term [1] - The unexpected appreciation of the Euro following the U.S. tariffs has surprised ECB policymakers, who initially anticipated a depreciation that would increase import costs [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose to 2.9% in March, up from 2.6% in February, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the market anticipates further reductions in borrowing costs by the ECB, with expectations of two to three additional cuts this year [2] - Economists from major banks predict that the ECB may lower the deposit facility rate to at least 1.5% to stimulate demand [2] Group 3 - The volatility in U.S. tariffs has caused market turmoil, leading investors to seek alternatives to U.S. assets [3] - Cipollone noted that the recent performance of U.S. financial markets suggests they are not serving their usual role as a safe haven, which could have significant implications for capital flows and the international financial system [3] - The long-term effects of higher tariffs may undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar's dominance in international trade and finance, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system [3]

金十数据4月14日讯，机构一项调查显示，由于美国提高关税，欧元区的通胀将低于此前的预测。该调 查支持欧洲央行本周降息的理由。分析师预计，2026年和2027年的消费者价格平均增幅分别为1.9%和 2%，这两项预测都向下修正了0.1个百分点。他们还预计，今年的经济增速将为0.8%，略低于此前的预 期，之后经济增长势头将有所回升。在另一项调查中，经济学家预测欧洲央行将在4月和6月再降息两 次。摩根大通经济学家格雷格·富泽西表示："即使美国暂停征收关税，4月份的降息仍然有意义。"他表 示，"6月的降息可能也不会引起太大争议"，不过之后的路径取决于与美国的贸易谈判如何发展。 欧元区通胀前景趋弱支持欧洲央行降息 ...