Core Insights - The Eurozone experienced unexpected economic growth in the second quarter, leading to speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from further interest rate cuts [1] Economic Performance - The growth rate in the second quarter was slower compared to the previous quarter, but it indicates a recovery in private consumption within the Eurozone [1] - Vincent Stammer from Deutsche Bank noted that higher economic growth typically leads to increased prices [1] Monetary Policy Implications - Due to the economic growth, the ECB may feel the need to maintain current key interest rates rather than lowering them [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoint - In the face of high capacity constraints and with demand gradually entering the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a direct difference of 133.4, a yesterday's volume of 2525, a yesterday's open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1][28] - EC2510 had a price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a direct difference of 813.8, a volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1][28] - EC2512 had a price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a direct difference of 578.8, and an open interest change of 79 [1][28] - EC2602 had a price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a direct difference of 775.6, and an open interest change of - 23 [1][28] - EC2604 had a price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a direct difference of 946.6, and an open interest change of - 283 [1][28] - EC2606 had a price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a direct difference of 823.0, and an open interest change of 44 [1][28] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 680.4, with a daily change of - 4.7 and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1][28] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 235.0, with a daily change of - 42.3 and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1][28] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 196.8, with a daily change of - 4.6 and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1][28] Shipping Indexes - SCEIS (updated every Monday, as of 2025/7/28): 2316.56 points, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from the period before the previous one [1][28] - SCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% in the next period [1][28] - CCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% in the next period [1][28] - NCFI (updated every week - nine, as of 2025/7/25): 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% in the next period [1][28] - TCI (as of 2025/7/18): 1054.56 points, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change in the next period [1][28] European Line Supply and Demand - The average capacities in August and September (temporarily) are 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacities in week32/33/34/35 are 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1][28] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in July did not face much pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provides some support, but the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1][28] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [2][29] - In August, the PA alliance's price dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's price decreased slightly at the beginning of the cabin opening (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The price in week31 landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [2][29] Related News - On 7/28, the US - EU trade agreement may lead to a long - term pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, increasing the risk of no further interest rate cuts [3][30] - On 7/29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3][30] - On 7/29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3][30] - On 7/29, the German government will approve a 2026 budget including a record investment of 126.7 billion euros to revitalize its sluggish economy [3][30]

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate level maintained by the European Central Bank (ECB) is deemed valuable, indicating a shift away from the era of easily adjusting rates [1] Economic Context - The euro is currently near its historical average, but close monitoring is necessary [1] - There remains untapped economic potential within the region [1] - The extensive easing policies previously implemented by the ECB continue to have an impact on the economy [1] Policy Stance - The ECB's current robust policy approach is considered appropriate for the economic conditions [1] - The era of straightforward interest rate hikes or cuts has concluded, suggesting a more complex decision-making environment ahead [1]

Core Viewpoint - A survey of economists indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) may delay its final interest rate cut until December, suggesting that the easing cycle is not yet perceived as over [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most respondents expect the ECB to maintain rates at the upcoming policy meeting, with a final cut of 25 basis points anticipated in September, lowering the deposit facility rate to 1.75% [1]. - Approximately one-quarter of respondents believe the ECB has completed its rate cuts, while nearly half predict the last cut will occur in September, and 21% expect it in December [6]. - The ECB is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations for further cuts in September and December, while maintaining a cautious stance in its communications [6][9]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Trade Relations - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US is seen as a critical factor influencing the ECB's policy decisions, with potential tariffs from the US posing risks to economic stability [9]. - Analysts highlight that the balance between strong domestic demand in the Eurozone and weak external demand is currently delicate, and any trade agreement progress is unlikely before the ECB's next meeting [9]. Group 3: Inflation and Currency Concerns - The ECB's inflation forecasts indicate a target of stabilizing inflation at 2% by 2027, with current projections showing average inflation of 1.6% in 2025 [10]. - The appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which has risen nearly 12% this year, is raising concerns about its impact on inflation, with some economists suggesting that a stronger euro could suppress price pressures [11]. - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the euro's exchange rate, with some respondents indicating that a rise to 1.35 against the dollar would be problematic, while others emphasize the importance of the rate's speed and magnitude [14].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on July 24, with discussions about potential rate cuts postponed until September [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The delay in discussions regarding rate cuts suggests that the ECB is monitoring economic conditions before making any significant changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain the deposit rate at 2% unless a significant shock alters the inflation outlook [1] Group 1: ECB's Interest Rate Policy - The ECB has reduced the interest rate by two percentage points since June 2024 and has indicated a pause in further cuts [1] - Financial investors anticipate that the ECB may lower the rate to 1.75% later this year [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - IMF's Alfred Kammer states that the inflation risks in the Eurozone are two-sided, supporting the argument for maintaining the current rate [1] - The IMF's inflation forecast for next year is higher than the ECB's expectations, contributing to the differing views between the IMF and market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) can pause further interest rate adjustments in July, indicating no need for significant monetary policy easing in the current cycle [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Policy - ECB has cumulatively lowered the benchmark deposit rate by 2 percentage points since June of last year [1] - It is expected that the ECB will maintain a wait-and-see approach for a longer period, with potential for another rate cut only before the end of the year [1] - Müller stated that maintaining stable policy is a reasonable approach and that keeping rates unchanged in July is logical [1] Economic Outlook - Müller mentioned that it is too early to discuss autumn policy but suggested that it is reasonable to assume no further significant rate cuts in the current cycle unless the Eurozone economy performs significantly worse than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to maintain interest rates for a period of time and does not rule out the possibility of further rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate level of the ECB is considered to be in a neutral position, which is viewed positively [1] - The inflation risks are currently seen as two-sided, indicating potential volatility in future economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, but future policy adjustments will depend on the economic conditions leading up to the next meeting in July [1] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies poses downside risks to economic growth in the Eurozone [1] - Inflation risks are mixed, indicating a cautious approach is necessary for decision-makers [1]