Core Viewpoint - A survey of economists indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) may delay its final interest rate cut until December, suggesting that the easing cycle is not yet perceived as over [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most respondents expect the ECB to maintain rates at the upcoming policy meeting, with a final cut of 25 basis points anticipated in September, lowering the deposit facility rate to 1.75% [1]. - Approximately one-quarter of respondents believe the ECB has completed its rate cuts, while nearly half predict the last cut will occur in September, and 21% expect it in December [6]. - The ECB is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations for further cuts in September and December, while maintaining a cautious stance in its communications [6][9]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Trade Relations - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US is seen as a critical factor influencing the ECB's policy decisions, with potential tariffs from the US posing risks to economic stability [9]. - Analysts highlight that the balance between strong domestic demand in the Eurozone and weak external demand is currently delicate, and any trade agreement progress is unlikely before the ECB's next meeting [9]. Group 3: Inflation and Currency Concerns - The ECB's inflation forecasts indicate a target of stabilizing inflation at 2% by 2027, with current projections showing average inflation of 1.6% in 2025 [10]. - The appreciation of the euro against the dollar, which has risen nearly 12% this year, is raising concerns about its impact on inflation, with some economists suggesting that a stronger euro could suppress price pressures [11]. - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the euro's exchange rate, with some respondents indicating that a rise to 1.35 against the dollar would be problematic, while others emphasize the importance of the rate's speed and magnitude [14].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on July 24, with discussions about potential rate cuts postponed until September [1] Group 1 - The European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged indicates a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The delay in discussions regarding rate cuts suggests that the ECB is monitoring economic conditions before making any significant changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has recently retreated from a high of 1.1800, with the market focusing on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar gained momentum amid rising yields, contributing to the Euro's decline after a nine-day increase [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has renewed demand for risk assets, putting pressure on the dollar and supporting the Euro and other risk-related currencies [4] - Trade tensions remain a focal point as the deadline for U.S. tariff suspensions approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the EU and the UK regarding Brexit [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in June but raised inflation and unemployment forecasts due to tariff-related cost pressures [6] - The European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered the deposit facility rate to 2.00%, with further easing contingent on a significant decline in external demand [6] Group 3: Market Positioning - As of June 24, speculative net long positions in the Euro rose to over 111.1K contracts, the highest level since January 2024, while commercial traders' net short positions increased to 164.3K contracts, the peak since December 2023 [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Initial resistance is at the 2025 high of 1.1829, with potential targets at the September 2018 high of 1.1815 and the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [8] - Initial support is at the 55-day simple moving average of 1.1410, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 and the May low of 1.1064 [8] - Momentum indicators remain positive, with the RSI above 74 indicating overbought conditions but also potential for further gains [8] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - In the absence of new geopolitical or macroeconomic shocks, the Euro's upward trend is expected to resume, supported by reduced risk aversion and expectations of Fed easing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain the deposit rate at 2% unless a significant shock alters the inflation outlook [1] Group 1: ECB's Interest Rate Policy - The ECB has reduced the interest rate by two percentage points since June 2024 and has indicated a pause in further cuts [1] - Financial investors anticipate that the ECB may lower the rate to 1.75% later this year [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - IMF's Alfred Kammer states that the inflation risks in the Eurozone are two-sided, supporting the argument for maintaining the current rate [1] - The IMF's inflation forecast for next year is higher than the ECB's expectations, contributing to the differing views between the IMF and market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) can pause further interest rate adjustments in July, indicating no need for significant monetary policy easing in the current cycle [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Policy - ECB has cumulatively lowered the benchmark deposit rate by 2 percentage points since June of last year [1] - It is expected that the ECB will maintain a wait-and-see approach for a longer period, with potential for another rate cut only before the end of the year [1] - Müller stated that maintaining stable policy is a reasonable approach and that keeping rates unchanged in July is logical [1] Economic Outlook - Müller mentioned that it is too early to discuss autumn policy but suggested that it is reasonable to assume no further significant rate cuts in the current cycle unless the Eurozone economy performs significantly worse than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) may need to maintain interest rates for a period of time and does not rule out the possibility of further rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The current interest rate level of the ECB is considered to be in a neutral position, which is viewed positively [1] - The inflation risks are currently seen as two-sided, indicating potential volatility in future economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates are likely to remain unchanged in the foreseeable future, but future policy adjustments will depend on the economic conditions leading up to the next meeting in July [1] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies poses downside risks to economic growth in the Eurozone [1] - Inflation risks are mixed, indicating a cautious approach is necessary for decision-makers [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices are experiencing a slight decline, currently trading at $3396.20 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.04% [1] - The trading range for today shows a high of $3407.70 and a low of $3384.50, indicating a narrow fluctuation in prices [1][3] - The resistance levels for gold are identified between $3427 and $3437, while support levels are between $3304 and $3314 [3] Group 2 - Nadia Gharbi, a senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management, anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not provide clear signals regarding interest rate actions for July during its meeting [2] - Key developments expected before the July meeting include the end of a 90-day tariff suspension, additional information on Germany's 2025 and 2026 budgets, and upcoming PMI reports and inflation data [2] - The ECB is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and revise down its economic growth and inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, suggesting a need for moderate monetary policy easing [2]