Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In June, the maintenance of caustic soda and alumina restocking can still support the market, but after restocking, the market may tend to short the chlor-alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - There are still many new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in the red, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. The impact of chlorine-consuming downstream on caustic soda supply needs attention [2]. - Considering the overall decline in coal and electricity prices this year, self - supplied power plant enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - connected power enterprises still have a large profit margin, which will open up the downward space for caustic soda valuation. The change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2308, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong is 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong is equivalent to 2656 on the futures market, and the basis is 348 [1]. - After the price of liquid caustic soda of major enterprises in Shandong was lowered over the weekend, the prices of other enterprises remained unchanged, but the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises was large. The focus today is still on the change in delivery volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Alumina restocking and caustic soda maintenance in June can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong restocks, the next price cut may occur after late June. After restocking, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are many new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high due to non - loss profits. The impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply needs attention, though it was limited in Q1 due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline in coal and electricity prices this year, self - supplied power plant enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - connected power enterprises still have profit margins, which will open up the downward space for caustic soda valuation. The change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a bearish trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, do not chase short positions in PVC, but there is still pressure in the long - term trend. PVC has a downward drive and needs to compress profits and reduce supply to achieve supply - demand balance. However, due to its low valuation, short - sellers have a strong willingness to take profits, so it's not advisable to chase short positions [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4,834 yuan, the East China spot price is 4,680 yuan, the basis is - 154 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 37 yuan. The PVC spot market is mainly oscillating and stabilizing. Affected by the black market sentiment in the afternoon, the price rose during the session. The supply fundamentals remain unchanged, the cost side is weak, and the long - term demand is uncertain. The spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. The ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4,620 - 4,750 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4,800 - 5,050 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - High - output and high - inventory structure: The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The current northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits. The market has been shorting chlor - alkali profits, causing the PVC futures price to hit a new low this year. The high - output pattern continues as the PVC maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023. The cost of chlor - alkali has declined, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 is well - supported with high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain uses alkali to supplement chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production in the future, with an expected 1.1 million tons of new capacity to be put into production from June to July [2] - Inventory and demand: The pressure of high inventory persists. The export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased, and exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce PVC inventory in the short - term, the sustainability of exports remains to be seen. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have a low willingness to stock up [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with the value range of [- 2,2]. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1]. - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can still support the market, but the key lies in the sustainability of stockpiling. After replenishment, the market may tend to short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - The market is in a downward trend of positive arbitrage pattern as caustic soda spot prices are difficult to rise or fall in the short term [2]. - There will be more new maintenance of caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply [2]. - Considering the decline of coal prices and electricity prices this year, the valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2371. The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2719 yuan/ton, and the basis is 348 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 880 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared with the previous period. The market is generally stable during the holiday, with only individual enterprises making minor adjustments. The shipment volume of 32% caustic soda to major downstream customers is large during the holiday, but it decreases as orders are shipped outside the province [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong replenishes its stock, it may lead to a price cut again after late June. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are more new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high as the profit is not in deficit. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply, although this impact was quite limited in the first quarter due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline of coal and electricity prices this year, self - power - generation enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - power enterprises still have large profit margins. The valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral situation [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The market will face pressure in the later stage. Although the downstream replenishment in May supports the market, the sustainability of stockpiling is crucial. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback. The market may show a positive - spread downward trend. The supply side will see more maintenance in June, especially in Shandong. The cost side has more room to decline due to the drop in coal and electricity prices, but the change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention. The strategy is to go short on rallies before significant supply cuts [5]. - **PVC**: It will fluctuate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. The high - production pattern will continue in the short term due to low costs and high caustic soda profits. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the export demand can only relieve it temporarily. The domestic demand related to real estate is still weak, and the procurement enthusiasm is low after the price rebound. Profit compression and supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary - **Caustic Soda**: The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. The market may decline in a positive - spread pattern. Do not be overly bearish below 2400. The key to the performance of 09 and 10 contracts lies in the scale and sustainability of maintenance from June to August [5]. - **PVC**: The high - production and high - inventory problem persists. The domestic demand is hard to improve continuously, and profit compression and supply cuts are required for balance [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price**: The cheapest deliverable product price in Shandong is about 2656 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spread**: The 09 basis and 7 - 9 month spread of caustic soda are strengthening. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is bullish for caustic soda. The export still supports the market in June, but there will be a price game between domestic and foreign parties. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is average [23][28][32]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Market Structure**: The production is rising, and the inventory is falling. The current domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 84.1%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week [44]. - **Maintenance**: Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August, with concentrated maintenance in Shandong in June [48]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new capacity in 2025 is 255 tons, but the actual expansion may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. Pay attention to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [49][52]. - **Chlor - consuming Downstream**: The start - up of some downstream industries such as propylene oxide and dichloromethane has changed, which has a limited impact on caustic soda supply due to its high profit [58][69]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina**: The start - up and inventory are declining, and the profit is rebounding. Some regions are still in a loss state. The new capacity is still being put into production, and the demand for caustic soda may expand if there is a resumption of production [74][78][84]. - **Paper Pulp**: The capacity expansion continues, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of the finished paper industry is lower than the same period [85][90]. - **Other Industries**: The start - up of viscose staple fiber is declining, the printing and dyeing start - up is flat, the water treatment start - up is rising, and the ternary precursor start - up is stable [95][98][100]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis and 9 - 1 month spread are strengthening [110]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The start - up rate is declining month - on - month but has not reached the 2023 reduction level. There will be more maintenance in the Northwest from June to August. The new capacity in 2025 will reach 210 tons, with concentrated commissioning of 110 tons in June - July [115][116][117]. - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is still weak. The downstream start - up is rising month - on - month but is weak year - on - year. The export has certain demand in the early stage but is expected to weaken later due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policy. The warehouse receipt quantity will rise again [123][129][138].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract showing a decline of 2.03% [1] - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2520.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2540.0 CNY and a low of 2463.0 CNY during the trading session [1] - The overall market fundamentals for caustic soda remain stable, with expectations for liquid caustic prices to increase moderately [1] Group 2 - The production capacity utilization rate for caustic soda increased by 1.5% to 84.1%, while the inventory levels at liquid caustic factories decreased by 3.59% to 40.09 thousand tons [2] - The operating rate for alumina decreased by 0.29% to 75.47%, indicating weak demand for caustic soda [2] - The market for caustic soda is expected to remain weak in the short term, with the main contract anticipated to fluctuate [2]