Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC monthly analysis: In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The overall start - up in July slightly declined but remained at a high level compared to the same period. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the addition of 900,000 tons of new capacity gradually reaching mass production in August, PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure remains high. The export may be affected by India's import policy and the rainy season, and the domestic demand is weak. PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. After the previous macro - disturbance, the PVC trend is still under pressure [4][2]. - Caustic soda monthly analysis: In July, the upstream start - up of caustic soda remained at a high level compared to the same period. The main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production one after another, with a continued increase in start - up, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of caustic soda is high, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, the industry inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profits in the later stage [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - PVC: In 2025, the planned new PVC capacity in China is 2.2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.99%. In the third quarter, 1.4 million tons of capacity will be put into production, increasing the pressure. Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 tons were completed and put into production at the end of July and are expected to reach mass production soon [15]. - Caustic soda: In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity in China is about 2.2 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 4.47%. In August, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang. However, due to issues such as the treatment of by - product liquid chlorine and policy constraints, the actual commissioning in the second half of the year may be less than expected [16]. Chlor - alkali Supply Situation PVC Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is rising. The addition of new capacity will further increase the supply - side pressure [23]. Caustic Soda Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.12%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. In August, the maintenance capacity will decrease significantly, and the previous production - cut and maintenance devices in the Shandong main production area will resume production one after another. The price of liquid chlorine, a by - product of caustic soda, has declined, strengthening the cost support for caustic soda [38]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis PVC Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27.61% and a year - on - year increase of 21.03%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.9605 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.26%. The export in August is still expected to be affected by policy uncertainties [56]. Caustic Soda Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 350,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.91%. The export to Southeast Asian regions such as Australia and Indonesia is relatively large. The export is expected to be supported by the overseas demand for downstream products such as alumina [60]. Current Situation and Outlook of PVC and Caustic Soda Demand - PVC demand in July was still weak. The real estate market was sluggish, dragging down domestic demand. PVC downstream product enterprises' start - up was at a low level compared to the same period, and the demand side was difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent macro - policies on downstream demand [72]. - For caustic soda, the main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season [72]. Current Situation and Outlook of Chlor - alkali Inventory - In July, PVC social inventory continued to accumulate. With the increase in supply and weak demand, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the later stage [110]. - In July, caustic soda inventory showed an overall accumulation trend. The upstream inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the inventory pressure is expected to remain large in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" [110].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The supply pressure of PVC remains high due to limited new maintenance, slight decline in overall operating load, and expected new production capacity in June - July. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down, with the possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The cost support is not strong, and the price is driven up by market sentiment. It is recommended to take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term [3][4]. - Caustic Soda: The overall operating rate of caustic soda is at a high level, and the supply pressure will increase with expected new production capacity in June - July. The demand from the alumina sector has a slight recovery, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The short - term price follows the basis repair logic, but the inventory is high, and the comprehensive profit has room for compression. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [3][4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4900 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+9), and the South China basis is - 50 yuan/ton (-11) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit is - 8.3 US dollars/ton (-4.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory is 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 76.74% (-0.09%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2288 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 306 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 900.3 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 267.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1284.03 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 36.65 tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.85 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.20% (+0.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 80.80% (+0.24%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Limited new maintenance, slightly lower overall operating load, high supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Weak domestic demand, slow inventory depletion rate, and possible inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - Cost: Weak cost support [3]. - Price: Driven up by market sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: High overall operating rate, increasing supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Slight recovery in alumina demand, weak non - aluminum demand, and continuous negative feedback from the demand side [3]. - Price: Short - term basis repair logic, but high inventory and lack of upward driving force [3]. Strategy - PVC: Take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term. Pay attention to export dynamics and new production progress [4]. - Caustic Soda: Take a cautious and bearish view, as the inventory is high and the comprehensive profit has room for compression [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and high inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive fundamental support, with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to macro-export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with high inventory pressure, slow inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. Directory Summaries Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 4,816 yuan/ton (+26), the East China basis was -136 yuan/ton (-6), and the South China basis was -26 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted 4,680 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted 4,790 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -426 yuan/ton (+121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -520 yuan/ton (-15), and the PVC export profit was 3.0 US dollars/ton (-2.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in-plant PVC inventory was 39.8 million tons (+1.4), the social PVC inventory was 36.1 million tons (-0.1), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.90% (+4.19%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 71.13% (-0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre-sale volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+8.6) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,308 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 442 yuan/ton (+27) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 935.8 yuan/ton (-120.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.21 million tons (-1.05), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.79 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.50% (-0.60%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.35% (+0.82%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.50% (-1.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (-0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply side: There are few new upstream maintenance projects, the PVC operation rate has increased month-on-month, the current output is at a high level in the same period, and it is difficult to drive a significant reduction in PVC production under the support of chlor-alkali profits. Coupled with the expected production of new capacity from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC is weakly stable, and the downstream market mainly purchases based on rigid demand, with the weak demand situation difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, the social PVC inventory continues to decline month-on-month but the de-stocking rate slows down, while the in-plant inventory accumulates. In the future, with the increase in supply and weak demand, the social inventory may slightly accumulate. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders are continuously and stably delivered, but the extension policy of the Indian BIS certification expires at the end of June, and there is currently no progress in the policy. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it is expected to drag down export demand [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply side: There are still many new maintenance projects in June, with the 1.02 million-ton capacity of Fujian Southeast Electrochemical completely shut down for maintenance, and the maintenance in Shandong has also increased. The operation rate in Shandong has declined month-on-month, but due to the acceptable chlor-alkali profits, upstream manufacturers mostly maintain high-load production. The overall caustic soda operation rate remains at a high level, and new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production from June to July, so the supply-side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: After the continuous increase in the purchase price, the delivery volume of the main downstream has significantly increased, but when the delivery volume exceeds the daily consumption and enters the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the sustainability of future inventory stocking. After the repair of the alumina production profit, the new and restarted capacities are gradually released, and the alumina operation rate has increased month-on-month, but the restart is still not obvious at present. The non-aluminum demand performance is not good, the dyeing operation rate has declined month-on-month, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase based on rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda has shifted downward [3]. Strategy - PVC: Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the continuous high supply and high inventory pressure of PVC and weak domestic demand, the fundamental lack of positive support, and limited upward driving force, currently at a low valuation with limited downward space. Continue to pay attention to macro-export policies at the export end and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a cautious short-selling hedging strategy. Currently, the comprehensive chlor-alkali profit is acceptable, the inventory is being digested but at a slow speed, the inventory pressure is high, and the overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are still expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In June, the maintenance of caustic soda and alumina restocking can still support the market, but after restocking, the market may tend to short the chlor-alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - There are still many new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in the red, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. The impact of chlorine-consuming downstream on caustic soda supply needs attention [2]. - Considering the overall decline in coal and electricity prices this year, self - supplied power plant enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - connected power enterprises still have a large profit margin, which will open up the downward space for caustic soda valuation. The change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2308, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong is 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong is equivalent to 2656 on the futures market, and the basis is 348 [1]. - After the price of liquid caustic soda of major enterprises in Shandong was lowered over the weekend, the prices of other enterprises remained unchanged, but the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises was large. The focus today is still on the change in delivery volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Alumina restocking and caustic soda maintenance in June can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong restocks, the next price cut may occur after late June. After restocking, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are many new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high due to non - loss profits. The impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply needs attention, though it was limited in Q1 due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline in coal and electricity prices this year, self - supplied power plant enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - connected power enterprises still have profit margins, which will open up the downward space for caustic soda valuation. The change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a bearish trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, do not chase short positions in PVC, but there is still pressure in the long - term trend. PVC has a downward drive and needs to compress profits and reduce supply to achieve supply - demand balance. However, due to its low valuation, short - sellers have a strong willingness to take profits, so it's not advisable to chase short positions [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4,834 yuan, the East China spot price is 4,680 yuan, the basis is - 154 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 37 yuan. The PVC spot market is mainly oscillating and stabilizing. Affected by the black market sentiment in the afternoon, the price rose during the session. The supply fundamentals remain unchanged, the cost side is weak, and the long - term demand is uncertain. The spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. The ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4,620 - 4,750 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4,800 - 5,050 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - High - output and high - inventory structure: The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The current northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits. The market has been shorting chlor - alkali profits, causing the PVC futures price to hit a new low this year. The high - output pattern continues as the PVC maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023. The cost of chlor - alkali has declined, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 is well - supported with high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain uses alkali to supplement chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production in the future, with an expected 1.1 million tons of new capacity to be put into production from June to July [2] - Inventory and demand: The pressure of high inventory persists. The export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased, and exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce PVC inventory in the short - term, the sustainability of exports remains to be seen. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have a low willingness to stock up [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with the value range of [- 2,2]. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1]. - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can still support the market, but the key lies in the sustainability of stockpiling. After replenishment, the market may tend to short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - The market is in a downward trend of positive arbitrage pattern as caustic soda spot prices are difficult to rise or fall in the short term [2]. - There will be more new maintenance of caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply [2]. - Considering the decline of coal prices and electricity prices this year, the valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2371. The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2719 yuan/ton, and the basis is 348 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 880 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared with the previous period. The market is generally stable during the holiday, with only individual enterprises making minor adjustments. The shipment volume of 32% caustic soda to major downstream customers is large during the holiday, but it decreases as orders are shipped outside the province [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong replenishes its stock, it may lead to a price cut again after late June. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are more new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high as the profit is not in deficit. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply, although this impact was quite limited in the first quarter due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline of coal and electricity prices this year, self - power - generation enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - power enterprises still have large profit margins. The valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral situation [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: The market will face pressure in the later stage. Although the downstream replenishment in May supports the market, the sustainability of stockpiling is crucial. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback. The market may show a positive - spread downward trend. The supply side will see more maintenance in June, especially in Shandong. The cost side has more room to decline due to the drop in coal and electricity prices, but the change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention. The strategy is to go short on rallies before significant supply cuts [5]. - **PVC**: It will fluctuate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. The high - production pattern will continue in the short term due to low costs and high caustic soda profits. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the export demand can only relieve it temporarily. The domestic demand related to real estate is still weak, and the procurement enthusiasm is low after the price rebound. Profit compression and supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary - **Caustic Soda**: The current situation is strong, but the expectation is weak. The market may decline in a positive - spread pattern. Do not be overly bearish below 2400. The key to the performance of 09 and 10 contracts lies in the scale and sustainability of maintenance from June to August [5]. - **PVC**: The high - production and high - inventory problem persists. The domestic demand is hard to improve continuously, and profit compression and supply cuts are required for balance [10]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price**: The cheapest deliverable product price in Shandong is about 2656 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spread**: The 09 basis and 7 - 9 month spread of caustic soda are strengthening. The 50 - alkali to 32 - alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is bullish for caustic soda. The export still supports the market in June, but there will be a price game between domestic and foreign parties. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is average [23][28][32]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - **Market Structure**: The production is rising, and the inventory is falling. The current domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 84.1%, a 1.5% increase from the previous week [44]. - **Maintenance**: Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August, with concentrated maintenance in Shandong in June [48]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new capacity in 2025 is 255 tons, but the actual expansion may be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. Pay attention to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [49][52]. - **Chlor - consuming Downstream**: The start - up of some downstream industries such as propylene oxide and dichloromethane has changed, which has a limited impact on caustic soda supply due to its high profit [58][69]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina**: The start - up and inventory are declining, and the profit is rebounding. Some regions are still in a loss state. The new capacity is still being put into production, and the demand for caustic soda may expand if there is a resumption of production [74][78][84]. - **Paper Pulp**: The capacity expansion continues, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of the finished paper industry is lower than the same period [85][90]. - **Other Industries**: The start - up of viscose staple fiber is declining, the printing and dyeing start - up is flat, the water treatment start - up is rising, and the ternary precursor start - up is stable [95][98][100]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis and 9 - 1 month spread are strengthening [110]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The start - up rate is declining month - on - month but has not reached the 2023 reduction level. There will be more maintenance in the Northwest from June to August. The new capacity in 2025 will reach 210 tons, with concentrated commissioning of 110 tons in June - July [115][116][117]. - **Demand**: The real - estate demand is still weak. The downstream start - up is rising month - on - month but is weak year - on - year. The export has certain demand in the early stage but is expected to weaken later due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policy. The warehouse receipt quantity will rise again [123][129][138].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for caustic soda is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract showing a decline of 2.03% [1] - The main contract for caustic soda opened at 2520.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2540.0 CNY and a low of 2463.0 CNY during the trading session [1] - The overall market fundamentals for caustic soda remain stable, with expectations for liquid caustic prices to increase moderately [1] Group 2 - The production capacity utilization rate for caustic soda increased by 1.5% to 84.1%, while the inventory levels at liquid caustic factories decreased by 3.59% to 40.09 thousand tons [2] - The operating rate for alumina decreased by 0.29% to 75.47%, indicating weak demand for caustic soda [2] - The market for caustic soda is expected to remain weak in the short term, with the main contract anticipated to fluctuate [2]