Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to face significant pressure in 2024 due to falling coal prices, leading to an estimated 18.8% year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a further decline of 29.7% anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Industry Summary - The total revenue for the coal industry in 2024 is projected to be 1.3574 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 146.8 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.8% decline [2]. - In Q1 2025, the coal industry is expected to generate 279.5 billion yuan in revenue, down 17.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.65 billion yuan, representing a 29.7% decline [2]. - The supply-demand dynamics for thermal coal are expected to weaken, with a notable increase in coal imports and the release of production capacity in the latter half of 2024, leading to further price pressures [2]. Coal Segment Analysis - The coking coal segment is anticipated to see a revenue decline of 11.4% in 2024, with net profit expected to drop by 45.5% due to weak demand and policy constraints [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced by the overall health of the black metal industry, with a decrease in demand from key sectors like real estate and infrastructure contributing to price declines [3]. Investment Logic - High-dividend coal companies are expected to exhibit defensive characteristics, with recommendations to focus on firms with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua (601088), Shaanxi Coal (601225), and China Coal Energy (601898) [4]. - The coal-electricity joint operation model is seen as a way to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and benefit from price differentials between market and long-term contract coal prices, with suggested companies including Xinjie Energy (601918), Shaanxi Coal, and China Shenhua [5]. - The cyclical sector may benefit from economic stimulus policies, with expectations of increased domestic demand driven by government fiscal measures, recommending attention to Shanxi Coking Coal (000983), Huaibei Mining (600985), and Pingdingshan Coal (601666) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024 but a decline in net profit, with challenges in coal prices impacting performance in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 40.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, and a net profit of 4.8 billion yuan, down 1.23% [1]. - The company's coal production in Q1 2025 reached 43.94 million tons, an increase of 6.00% year-on-year, while self-produced coal sales were 39.55 million tons, up 5.81% [1]. Coal and Power Segment - The coal segment generated revenue of 162.7 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, but the gross profit decreased by 11.0% to 55.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company’s average selling price for coal was 561 yuan per ton, down 8.50% year-on-year, while the self-produced coal price was 532 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9.99% [1][2]. - In 2024, the company’s power generation was 37.6 billion kWh, an increase of 4.41% year-on-year, with sales of 35.1 billion kWh, also up 4.37% [2]. Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is advancing new coal and power projects, with production capacity at Yuan Datang coal mine increasing from 8 million tons/year to 10 million tons/year [3]. - The company has 11,320 MW of thermal power capacity under construction, with significant projects receiving approval [3]. - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, having distributed a total cash dividend of 1.348 yuan per share in 2024, with a dividend ratio of 65% [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 157.8 billion yuan, 162.3 billion yuan, and 165.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 18.3 billion yuan, 17.8 billion yuan, and 18.7 billion yuan [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.85% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million yuan, down 11.01% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 540 million yuan, a decrease of 7.62% [1] - The company reported a coal production of 5.54 million tons, an increase of 10.47% year-on-year, and a sales volume of 4.60 million tons, up 1.76% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average selling price of coal was 560 yuan per ton, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 324 yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, leading to an increase in coal gross profit to 236 yuan per ton, up 3.4% year-on-year [1] - The overall coal sales revenue was 2.57 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, with internal sales revenue increasing significantly by 61.9% to 950 million yuan [1] Group 3: Power Generation and Future Plans - The commissioning of the second phase of the Banjic power plant resulted in a significant increase in power generation, with a total generation of 3.62 billion kWh, up 47.2% year-on-year [2] - The overall revenue from the power segment reached 1.28 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.0% [2] - Future capacity expansions include new power plants scheduled for completion by 2026, alongside the resumption of operations at Yangcun Mine [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 12.1 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 14.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 2.12 billion yuan, 2.44 billion yuan, and 2.44 billion yuan [3] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 8.49, 7.39, and 7.39 for the respective years, while the price-to-book ratio (PB) is projected at 1.02, 0.89, and 0.78 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, reflecting challenges in the coal and electricity markets, but maintains a strong dividend outlook due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.95 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11.71 billion yuan, a decline of 28.9% year-on-year [1] Production and Sales Summary - The company produced 82.5 million tons of commodity coal in Q1 2025, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [1] - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.7% [1] - The average selling price of coal (excluding tax) was 519 yuan/ton, down 12.2% year-on-year, with self-produced coal priced at 484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.4% [1][2] Cost and Margin Summary - The cost of coal per ton was 363 yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, while the cost of self-produced coal increased slightly to 195.8 yuan/ton, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - Total coal revenue was 51.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.7% year-on-year, with operating costs at 36.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% [2] - Total gross profit from coal was 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8% year-on-year [2] Electricity Generation Summary - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year, with total electricity sales at 47.47 billion kWh, also down 10.7% [2] - The average electricity price was 0.386 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year, while the cost per kWh was 0.354 yuan, down approximately 3.1% [2] - Total electricity revenue was 18.3 billion yuan, down 15.7% year-on-year, with electricity costs at 16.8 billion yuan, down 13.5% [3] Dividend and Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share for 2024, yielding a dividend rate of 5.8% based on the April 25 closing price [3] - The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 65% for 2025-2027, an increase from the previous 60% [3] - The acquisition of Hangjin Energy is expected to enhance resource capabilities, with significant coal and power generation assets [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 297.6 billion yuan, 289.5 billion yuan, and 289.4 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 12.04%, 2.73%, and 0.03% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 48.5 billion yuan, 47.5 billion yuan, and 47.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.4%, -1.9%, and +0.12% [4] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 15.86, 16.17, and 16.15 for the respective years, with price-to-book ratios of 1.75, 1.70, and 1.66 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for 2024 but an increase in net profit, primarily affected by unexpected carbon emission expenses [1] Financial Performance - 2024 revenue was 22.294 billion yuan, down 1.03% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.325 billion yuan, up 15.98% year-on-year, but below the expected 2.512 billion yuan due to additional carbon emission costs of 276 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 9.33% to 5.052 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 16.25% to 744 million yuan, also below the expected range of 871-977 million yuan [1] Dividend Policy - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 yuan (before tax) for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 5.45% [1] - The total dividend payout accounted for 61.75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders and 71.9% of the distributable profits, exceeding the commitment of at least 70% [1] Electricity Pricing - In 2024, the company's on-grid electricity volume decreased by 3.51% to 54.297 billion kWh, mainly due to a 7.02% drop in electricity volume sent to the North China grid [2] - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for 2024 was 336.46 yuan/MWh, down 2.17% year-on-year, with a smaller decline compared to 6.23% in 2023 [2] - In Q1 2025, the average on-grid electricity price increased by 3.57% to 363.11 yuan/MWh, driven by increased peak-shaving revenue and a decrease in on-grid electricity volume [2] Coal Sector Performance - In 2024, the coal segment saw both volume and price increases, with external sales volume rising by 16.89% to 7.2803 million tons, despite a downward trend in market coal prices [3] - The external sales price (excluding tax) was 402.21 yuan/ton, up 0.18% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, external sales volume increased by 0.39% to 1.5608 million tons, but the external sales price dropped by 14.03% to 358.7 yuan/ton due to a decline in raw coal calorific value [3] Price Target and Rating - The target price is set at 5.01 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Adjustments were made to the 2025-26 on-grid electricity volume and external coal prices, leading to a downward revision of net profit expectations for those years by 19% and 21% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for 2027 is projected to be 2.739 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.36/0.39/0.42 yuan for 2025-2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.01 RMB [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.29 billion RMB in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.03% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.33 billion RMB, an increase of 15.98% year-on-year, although below the expected 2.51 billion RMB due to unexpected carbon emission expenses [1]. - The company achieved a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.22 RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.45%, with total dividends accounting for 61.75% of net profit attributable to shareholders, exceeding the commitment of at least 70% of distributable profits [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 9.33% year-on-year to 5.05 billion RMB and a net profit decrease of 16.25% year-on-year to 744 million RMB, primarily due to lower coal quality and external coal prices [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 2024 was 22.29 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 3.73% for 2025, followed by a slight recovery in 2026 and 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.33 billion RMB in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.74 billion RMB by 2027 [6]. - The report indicates a projected EPS of 0.36 RMB for 2025, increasing to 0.42 RMB by 2027 [6]. Electricity Pricing and Coal Segment - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 is expected to decrease by 2.17% to 336.46 RMB/MWh, with a recovery in Q1 2025 showing a 3.57% increase to 363.11 RMB/MWh [2]. - The coal segment saw an increase in external sales volume by 16.89% to 7.28 million tons in 2024, with external coal prices slightly up by 0.18% to 402.21 RMB/ton [3]. - In Q1 2025, external coal sales volume remained stable, but prices dropped by 14.03% to 358.7 RMB/ton due to declining coal quality [3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of 5.01 RMB is based on a 14.0x PE ratio for 2024, reflecting a higher ROE and dividend level compared to comparable companies [4]. - The report adjusts the 2025-2026 net profit forecasts down by 19% and 21% respectively, due to various operational challenges [4]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 26.37 billion RMB, with a closing price of 4.04 RMB as of April 25, 2025 [9].

行业观点 方正证券发布研报称，当前煤炭现货价格跌破长协基准价格，后期可关注长协价格对现货价格的支撑作 用。此前该行认为煤价当前价格附近有一定支撑，公式定价的长协价格受影响较小，长协占比较高业绩 稳定性较强。新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利，提升 经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 方正证券主要观点如下： 投资观点 在低利率环境下高股息板块依旧值得重视，而对中长期资金而言高股息是其投资主要选择，尤其是险 资、社保基金等，新资金的流入使红利有望成为2025年的投资主线。此外能提升经营久期、回收让利， 提升经营抗风险能力的煤电联营模式，有望在2025年成为市场关注焦点。 投资逻辑一 在供需环境、价格水平、行业利润均有望稳中向好的当下，行业高分红股息标的优势逐渐显著，建议关 注资源禀赋优秀，经营业绩稳定且分红比例预期较高的标的：中国神华（601088）、陕西煤业 （601225）、中煤能源（601898）。 投资逻辑二 本周煤价再度下行，至655元后止跌，价格一度跌破长协基准线675元。由于近两个月煤价下行，部分产 地部分地区煤矿开启检修，产地 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a renewed verification of its dividend attributes, suggesting a favorable window for investment during this period [1] - The report indicates that coal prices have stabilized after a decline, with current prices hovering around 680-690 yuan per ton, which is expected to provide support for future pricing [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields in the current low-interest-rate environment, making coal stocks attractive for long-term investors [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry and Company Market Review - The coal index increased by 4.84%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.26 percentage points [9] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal industry is 10.54, which is lower than the CSI 300's PE of 12.82, indicating a discount of 17.78% [12] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of 462 sample coal mines is 96.3%, up by 1.5 percentage points week-on-week [19] - The average daily output of these coal mines is 579.5 thousand tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.4 thousand tons [19] Price Trends - As of March 14, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 681 yuan per ton, down by 7 yuan or 1.02% from the previous week [30] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal in major production areas has seen increases, with prices in Ordos and Yulin rising by 15 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [30] Key Company Announcements - Shaanxi Coal's 2024 performance report shows a 4.13% increase in raw coal production to 170 million tons, while total revenue increased by 1.47% to 184.145 billion yuan [47] - China Shenhua reported a 1.9% increase in coal production for February 2025, totaling 27 million tons [48]