Tax Policy Insights - The article discusses the tax rate differences for crane rental services, highlighting a 13% tax rate versus a 9% tax rate based on whether the rental includes operators and maintenance [5][11]. - It emphasizes that taxpayers renting construction equipment must provide operators and maintenance services, which can influence the choice of rental service based on tax implications [5]. Advanced Manufacturing Tax Policies - Advanced manufacturing enterprises cannot simultaneously enjoy multiple VAT deduction policies; they must choose the most favorable one without overlapping in the same period [14]. - Exported goods and services by advanced manufacturing enterprises do not qualify for VAT deduction policies, and the corresponding input tax cannot be claimed for deductions [15]. - Unclaimed VAT deductions can be accounted for in the current period if the advanced manufacturing enterprise decides to apply the deduction policy [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive guide on the application process and requirements for obtaining the "China Tax Resident Certificate," aimed at facilitating taxpayers in enjoying treaty benefits and conducting cross-border operations. Application Channels - Enterprises can apply for the "China Tax Resident Certificate" through the electronic tax bureau online or at the tax service hall of their competent tax authority. Individuals can also use the natural person electronic tax bureau or visit the tax service hall [1][3]. Application Conditions - According to the announcement by the State Taxation Administration, both enterprises and individuals can apply for the certificate for any calendar year in which they qualify as Chinese tax residents. However, certain entities like domestic branches of Chinese resident enterprises and individual businesses cannot apply directly but must have their Chinese resident owners or partners apply on their behalf [3][4]. Processing Time - The competent tax authority is required to issue the "Tax Resident Certificate" within 7 working days if they can determine the tax residency status independently. If not, they may need to escalate the matter to a higher tax authority and request additional documentation from the applicant [4]. Applicable Period for Certificate - Applicants can request the "Tax Resident Certificate" for any calendar year in which they qualify as a Chinese tax resident [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future ten-year federal budget deficit in the U.S. is projected to be nearly $1 trillion higher than the previous estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies [1] - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) forecasts a cumulative deficit of $22.7 trillion from fiscal years 2026 to 2035, compared to CBO's earlier prediction of $21.8 trillion [1] - The CRFB estimates that the deficit for fiscal year 2025 will be $1.7 trillion, accounting for 5.6% of GDP, slightly lower than the previous year's deficit of $1.83 trillion [1] Group 2 - The CRFB's new estimates include the budget impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and current tariff policies, but do not account for the dynamic effects of these policy changes on economic growth, which has faced criticism from the Trump administration [2] - The CRFB anticipates that tax cuts and spending measures will increase the deficit by $4.6 trillion by 2035, while the new tariff policies are expected to generate $3.4 trillion in additional import tariff revenue over the next decade [2] - The CRFB predicts that net interest payments on the national debt will total $14 trillion over the next ten years, rising from nearly $1 trillion in 2025 to $1.8 trillion by 2035 [2] Group 3 - The CRFB's alternative scenario suggests a significantly worsened budget outlook, with deficits projected to exceed CBO's baseline by nearly $7 trillion if certain tariff policies are overturned [3] - This alternative scenario assumes that temporary tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will be extended, leading to an additional $1.7 trillion in deficits over the decade [3] - The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 118% under CBO's baseline to 120% under CRFB's baseline, and could reach 134% in the alternative scenario [3]

Core Insights - Bonds are influenced by various factors, including interest rates, credit risk, bond duration, inflation expectations, and tax policies [1][2] Interest Rates - Market interest rates have an inverse relationship with bond prices; when rates rise, existing bonds with lower rates decrease in value, potentially leading to capital losses for investors [1] - Conversely, when market rates fall, existing bonds increase in value, allowing investors to realize capital gains [1] Credit Risk - The creditworthiness of bond issuers significantly impacts bond yields; higher-rated issuers typically offer lower yields due to lower default risk, while lower-rated issuers must provide higher yields to compensate for increased risk [1][2] - Default by an issuer can result in loss of both interest income and principal for investors [1] Bond Duration - Longer-duration bonds generally carry higher risks and uncertainties, necessitating higher yields to attract investors, known as the term premium [2] - Long-term bonds face more risks from interest rate fluctuations and inflation compared to short-term bonds [2] Inflation Expectations - Rising inflation expectations lead investors to demand higher yields to offset the loss of purchasing power, which can pressure bond prices and reduce actual yields [2] - Conversely, lower inflation expectations can alleviate downward pressure on bond prices, potentially increasing yields [2] Tax Policies - Different types of bonds may have varying tax treatments, with some offering tax-exempt interest income, making them more attractive despite lower nominal rates [2] - The tax-adjusted yield can influence investor choices and overall returns on bonds [2]

Tax Policies for Students - Before January 1, 2026, ticket revenue from cultural and sports services provided by museums, galleries, and similar institutions is exempt from VAT [2] - Ticket revenue from cultural and religious activities held by temples and churches is exempt from VAT [2] - Until December 31, 2027, ticket revenue from science popularization activities conducted by government departments and science associations is exempt from VAT [2] Summer Part-time Jobs - Students engaged in part-time work are exempt from VAT for the services they provide [3] - Employers are required to withhold and pay personal income tax for remuneration received by interns from vocational and higher education institutions [3] Electric Vehicle Purchase Tax Incentives - From January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, there is a vehicle purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles, with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle [3] - From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, there will be a 50% reduction in vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles, with a maximum reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [3] Education Expense Deductions - Parents can deduct 2,000 yuan per month for each child’s education expenses, applicable to various levels of education including compulsory education and higher education [3] - Deductions can be claimed during the transition period between different levels of education [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond at 1.75% may be challenged but remains relatively reliable. After returning to the narrow fluctuation range, the 1.65% fluctuation center position is still valid. The view that "the winning probability of the long - end yield decline has not substantially decreased, and the odds have increased during the adjustment" is maintained. In the second half of the year, with the reduction of government bond issuance after August, the re - brewing of policy rate cuts, and the realization of fundamental pressure, there is still a possibility of opening up the downward space for interest rates [2][10]. - Most institutions have a "short - term bearish, long - term bullish" expectation for the bond market, but there are differences in the specific short - term trends. The demand - side policy pattern remains unchanged, and most institutions' expectations of "high in the front and low in the back" for the fundamentals, the judgment of the upcoming reduction of supply pressure, and the long - term bullish view on the bond market remain unchanged. However, the bond market has short - term concerns, and institutions do not have high expectations for the downward space of yields [2][11]. - The marginal improvement of inflation seems imminent, but it still takes time to reverse the trend. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of the increase in commodity prices. There may be more support for prices in August, but the inflation data in August is crucial [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes is still being implemented. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the issuance of 3 - year Treasury new bonds is the first observation window for the new - old bond spread [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, which is the moat of the current bond market. Monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of the current monetary policy easing, and in the context of low market expectations and trading sentiment, there is a higher possibility of "surprises" in monetary policy operations [3][17]. - The existence of expected differences is the best time for trading desks to layout. In the context of low yields and low volatility, it is difficult to operate the market following the trend. The short - term expected differences are a suitable layout opportunity [4][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Expected Differences are Layout Opportunities - The 10 - year Treasury bond's 1.75% top is a signal that interest rates may break through the low - volatility range. The market's short - term expected differences are a good time to layout bond market investments [4][19]. - The inflation improvement in August is crucial. The PPI in July may not fully reflect the impact of commodity price increases, and 8 - month inflation data can verify the improvement of prices [3][12]. - The impact of tax policy changes continues. The new - old bond spread of 10 - year local bonds is about 6BP, and the 3 - year Treasury new bond issuance is an important observation window [3][14]. - Liquidity is loose, and monetary policy operations may bring "surprises". The market has a neutral expectation of monetary policy easing, and the central bank's operations are more likely to exceed expectations [3][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity abundance drives a dual - bull market in stocks and bonds, but export data interferes with the bond market. The 7 - day OMO of the central bank was in a net - withdrawal state last week, yet the capital market remained loose. The short - term asset yields declined due to loose funds, and the mid - and long - term yields also had downward support after the weak bond market sentiment recovered. However, the July export data and the establishment of the Xinzang Railway Company triggered the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, restricting the downward space of ultra - long - term interest rates [2][87]. - The pricing focus of taxation is more inclined to new bonds, and the curve valuation may face upward pressure. The ChinaBond Valuation Center will gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it. The winning bid rate of new local bonds on August 8 was higher than the valuation of the same - term old bonds, indicating that the pricing focus has shifted to new bonds. Potential tax policy changes may also push up the valuation center [2][88]. - Ample funds are beneficial for short - term interest rates to maintain good performance, and the curve shape may continue to steepen. The previous negative sentiment in the bond market has weakened, and the bond market pricing may become more neutral. Short - term interest rates are expected to perform well, while the downward space of long - term interest rates may be restricted. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option [2][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On August 8, the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multiple - price - winning bid buy - back operation. After this operation, the buy - back was still in a net - withdrawal state as the August maturity scale was 9000 billion yuan [5]. - China's export in July 2025 reached 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, the highest growth rate since April. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 9.2% and 16.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year [7]. - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre - school education, covering all kindergarten senior - class children and eligible private kindergarten children [9]. - On August 8, 2025, the Xinzang Railway Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan, marking the start of the substantial construction of the Xinzang Railway project [12]. - On August 7, the ChinaBond Valuation Center announced that it would gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it [13]. 3.2 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends**: From August 4 to 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The policy interest rate for the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 8, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.341%, 1.454%, 1.312%, and 1.425% respectively, with changes compared to August 1 [15][20]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Commercial bank certificates of deposit had a net financing of 177.31 billion yuan last week, with city commercial banks having the largest issuance scale. The 1 - year issuance rate of national and share - holding banks dropped to around 1.63%. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [24][29]. 3.3 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 8, the cumulative net financing of national bonds and local bonds in 2025 was about 4.37 trillion yuan and 5.27 trillion yuan respectively. The actual issuance of local government bonds in July was lower than expected, which may lead to an increase in the actual supply in August - September. Last week, the issuance and net financing of national bonds increased significantly, while the issuance of local bonds slowed down. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds has reached 1.84 trillion yuan as of August 8 [34][41][42]. - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the market showed a bull - steepening trend. The short - and medium - term interest rates declined due to loose funds, while the ultra - long - term interest rates increased due to export data and strong risk assets. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year national bond and national development bond active bonds decreased. The term spread and the spread between national and local bonds showed different trends [46][50][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leveraged trading volume recovered last week due to loose funds. The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week [67]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks mainly bought national bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of national bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years, and securities firms and funds had a stronger buying force for national bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [70]. - The current加仓 cost of major trading desks for 10 - year national bonds is between 1.69% - 1.70% [74]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, cathode copper, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased compared to the previous week, while the BDI index increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the prices of pork and glass also declined, while the price of vegetables increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [84]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may continue to show a steepening trend. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option. Specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [89].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in consumer demand for home appliances in Heilongjiang Province due to sustained high temperatures since late June, leading to a surge in sales across various categories [1] - In the first half of the year, commodity consumption in Heilongjiang Province grew by 10.4% year-on-year, with daily household appliances sales skyrocketing by 95.3% [1] - Retail sales of communication equipment and home audio-visual devices saw year-on-year increases of 84.7% and 39% respectively, while offline comprehensive retail sales rose by 4.7% and online retail sales surged by 192.8% [1] Group 2 - The article notes a strong consumer response to policies promoting the replacement of old appliances and vehicles, indicating a trend towards large-scale equipment updates and trade-in programs [1] - The Heilongjiang tax authorities are actively promoting tax policies related to the replacement of old appliances and new energy vehicles through various platforms, ensuring that businesses understand and benefit from these policies [1] - The focus on household appliances and new energy vehicles aims to streamline tax processes and enhance financial management for businesses, ensuring that consumers receive the benefits of these policies directly [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone has been revealed, and expectations have been revised. The bond yield's阶段性 top is clear, with the 10 - year Treasury bond's mid - term top forming around 1.75% [3][10][12]. - Tax policy changes have a "one - time" impact on the nominal interest rate center. The expected tax burden spread is around 5BP, and it may affect the selection of the cheapest to deliver bond in far - month Treasury bond futures contracts [4][14]. - It is necessary to re - define the interest rate's fluctuation center. The 1.75% mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be challenged but remains relatively reliable, and the 1.65% fluctuation center is still valid. There is a possibility of opening up downward interest rate space in the second half of the year [5][15][16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Redefine the Interest Rate Center? - **Policy Expectations and Bond Yield Top** - The prediction of policy deployment is mostly fulfilled. The demand - side pulling policy pattern remains unchanged, and there is no unexpected urban renewal policy. The "anti - involution" policy exists but with lower - than - expected progress and attention [3][10][11]. - The "anti - involution" policy has long - term impacts on price and interest rate pricing, but the results are not linearly the same as historical trends [11]. - The demand - side pulling policy maintains its pattern, and the pricing difference between commodities and bonds regarding demand - pulling policies should end with commodity pricing correction [11]. - The monetary policy's task of "lowering social comprehensive financing costs" persists. Liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose in Q3, and a new round of policy interest rate cuts and liquidity easing is in the making [11]. - From the perspective of policy expectations, the mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond around 1.75% has formed [3][12][16]. - **Impact of Tax Policy Changes** - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax. The actual tax burden for self - operated financial institutions is 6.34%, and for asset management institutions is 3.26% [4][13]. - The theoretical tax burden spread for long - duration bonds is 5 - 12BP, but it is expected to be around 5BP considering previous factors [4][13][14]. - Near - month Treasury bond futures contracts are less affected, while far - month contracts may see an impact on the selection of the cheapest to deliver bond, and tax burden differences can be considered in determining conversion factors [4][14]. - **Redefining the Interest Rate Fluctuation Center** - The interest rate increase since early July is driven by expectations of "anti - involution" and demand - side policies, with risk preference playing a role in asset re - pricing [15]. - Given the "high - first - then - low" trend of the fundamentals throughout the year, the 1.75% mid - term top of the 10 - year Treasury bond may be challenged but is still relatively reliable. The 1.65% fluctuation center is still valid. There is potential for interest rates to decline in the second half of the year [5][15][16].

Core Insights - The optimism surrounding Donald Trump's second term led to a surge in trading activities, resulting in record trading revenues for major U.S. banks, which increased by $10 billion year-over-year to reach $71 billion in the first half of the year [1][4] - Despite the increase in trading revenues, investment banking revenues only saw a slight increase of less than $1 billion and remain nearly 40% lower than the peak in 2021 due to market volatility affecting M&A and IPO activities [1][4] Group 1: Market Reactions and Trading Activities - The announcement of tariffs by Trump in April caused significant market volatility, which initially hindered M&A activities but later stimulated trading activities, leading to record revenues for major financial institutions in Q2 [3][4] - Major banks like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup reported strong trading performances, with Goldman Sachs achieving the highest revenue in its history for stock trading [3][4] - Bank of America’s trading division saw a robust performance in fixed income, rates, and foreign exchange products, while equity trading volumes also increased [4] Group 2: Investment Banking Recovery - There are signs of recovery in investment banking, with JPMorgan and Citigroup reporting better-than-expected performance in their investment banking divisions, with fees increasing by 7% and 13% respectively [4][5] - Morgan Stanley noted a recovery in investment banking activities in June, as boards became more open to navigating ongoing uncertainties, despite a 5% decline in investment banking fees [5] - The second quarter was characterized by two distinct phases: initial uncertainty due to trade policies followed by increased market participation and a steady recovery in capital markets [5]