证券研究报告：区域经济|深度报告 研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 区域经济研究专题 重庆城口：交通便利性跃升，西部矿都迎来新机遇 l 基本情况 地理特征：城口县位于重庆东北部，渝、川、陕三省（市）交界 处，历史悠久，于1998年2月20日划归重庆市直管，全县东西长100.4 公里，南北宽65.7公里，辖区面积 3289.04平方公里，下辖 2街道12 镇 11 乡。城口县山地居多，普遍海拔在 1000—1800 米，境内共有大 小河流 779 条，素有"九山半水半分田"之称，气候温和，雨量充沛， 四季分明。 人口及交通情况：城口县人口规模相对较小，2024 年末户籍人 口 24.64 万人，常住人口 19.66 万人，人口数量稳定，但老龄化趋势 明显，劳动力有所外流。交通方面，多山多水的地理条件使城口县经 济相对闭塞，但未来随着高速公路、铁路陆续贯通，城口县交通便利 性将迎来跃升。 产业升级方面，城口县第一产业大规模开发增量农牧业的空间或 相对有限，在现有农牧业的基础上做优产业链或更加契合重庆市的政 策方针，延长农 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the real estate market is the continuous decline in both new and second-hand housing prices, with a notable drop of 1% in second-hand housing prices in four first-tier cities in July [1] - The stock market is reaching a 10-year high, leading to capital being drawn away from the real estate market, prompting some individuals to consider selling their homes to invest in stocks [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4% year-on-year decrease in new housing sales area and a 6.5% drop in sales revenue from January to July [2] Group 2 - In July, the sales area of commercial housing plummeted by 45.8% month-on-month, reaching only 0.57 billion square meters, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2009 [2] - The ongoing sluggish sales in the real estate market could drag down the economy in the second half of the year, with potential impacts on local government finances due to reduced revenue from land sales [2][4] - A 10% drop in commercial housing sales revenue could lead to a 1% decrease in national public budget revenue, with land transfer income potentially falling by 15% the following year [4] Group 3 - Recent tax policies have been introduced to address the revenue gap left by the real estate market, including the taxation of interest income from government bonds and local government bonds starting August 8 [6] - New regulations require individuals to pay personal income tax on capital gains from overseas stock transactions at a rate of 20%, with provisions for tax credits if taxes were paid abroad [8] - The introduction of the "landlord tax" and stricter enforcement of existing tax regulations aim to increase tax compliance among property owners and high-income individuals [10][13] Group 4 - The overarching strategy of the recent tax reforms is to enforce existing tax laws more strictly rather than introducing new taxes, primarily targeting wealthier individuals [13] - To mitigate the risks associated with the real estate sector and alleviate the financial burden on homeowners, a potential solution could involve promoting moderate inflation to gradually reduce debt burdens [15]

Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the changes in local fiscal reports, highlighting the income structure and expenditure situation for 2024 and the budget expectations for 2025, providing insights into potential fiscal "bottlenecks" and revenue expectations for local governments [1][24]. Group 1: 2024 Local General Fiscal Situation - In 2024, local general fiscal revenue growth reached 1.7%, higher than the national average of 1.3%, primarily due to increased efforts in asset disposal and resource mobilization [2][8]. - Local general fiscal expenditure growth was 3.2%, lower than the national rate of 3.6%, attributed to sufficient central carryover funds supporting national fiscal spending [2][8]. - Local non-tax revenue saw a significant increase of approximately 12.5%, while tax revenue experienced an average decline of about 2% [2][9]. Group 2: 2024 Local Government Fund Performance - Local government fund revenue decreased by 13.5% in 2024, with a slight expenditure growth of 0.4% [3][12]. - The decline in land transfer income, which fell by 16%, significantly impacted government fund revenues, with 19 out of 25 provinces reporting decreases [13][12]. - Some regions compensated for the decline in land transfer income through project construction and investment revenues, with notable increases in specific funds in provinces like Guizhou [14][12]. Group 3: 2025 Local Fiscal Budget Goals - Local governments have raised their 2025 general fiscal revenue growth target to 3%, up from 1.7% in 2024, mainly due to expected tax recovery [5][18]. - Tax revenue is projected to grow by an average of 3.9%, while non-tax revenue is expected to decline by 11.6% [5][18]. - Local government fund revenue is anticipated to increase by 1.6%, while expenditure is expected to decrease by 6.5% [5][20].