Economic Overview - China's economy is expected to grow at over 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies like the old-for-new consumption initiative and proactive fiscal measures[2] - The economy is projected to follow a "U-shaped" trajectory throughout the year, with growth pressures in the second half due to high base effects and external factors[2][9] Key Challenges - The actual tariff rate imposed by the US on China is approximately 40%, which may lead to diminishing export resilience as previous "rush to export" effects fade[10] - Real estate prices are declining, impacting consumer wealth and spending, with sales and investment in the sector showing negative growth since May[12] - Local government finances remain tight, with significant reliance on fiscal support to sustain growth, potentially limiting resources for the second half of the year[13] Policy Recommendations - Accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds to stimulate investment and consumption[3] - Optimize the old-for-new consumption policy to include the service sector, enhancing its effectiveness[3] - Implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the establishment of a central real estate stabilization fund[17] Fiscal and Monetary Measures - Fiscal policy will be a primary focus, with an emphasis on increasing spending to counteract external demand pressures[15] - The government plans to issue approximately 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt for the year, with 5 trillion yuan utilized in the first half and an estimated 5.5 trillion yuan for the second half[13] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth was only 0.1% in June 2025, indicating low inflation, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has been in negative territory for 33 consecutive months[14] - The divergence between macroeconomic data and microeconomic sentiment may hinder economic recovery, necessitating stronger macroeconomic controls to promote reasonable price increases[14]

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯 倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 摘要 申万宏源宏观 . 强化非税收入，中西地区加力盘活国有资源，东部加强国有资本经营收入。 中西部地区中，山西、内蒙 古、新疆非税收入增速均超20%，或主因矿产等资源出让收入带动；东部地区，北京积极扩大市属机关所 办企业上缴收益试点范围，促使国有资本经营收入增长97%。 二问：2024年地方政府性基金表现？土地出让收入拖累明显，超长期特别国债有效支撑 2024年地方本级政府性基金收入下降明显，支出小幅正增长。 2024年地方本级政府性基金收入同 比-13.5%，支出同比0.4%。从各地财政预算执行报告来看，西藏外的30个地区中，仅8地政府性基金收入 实现增长；22个地区政府性基金收入明显下滑。 部分地区通过项目建设与投资收入补充地方本级政府性基金收入。 拆解贵州政府性基金收入可发现， 2024年其国家重大水利工程建设基金收入与大中型水库库区基金收入分别增长127.6%、69.8%，使得贵州 本级政府性基金收入总体增长1.5 ...