4月26日，光大证券首席经济学家高瑞东发布4月25日政治局会议精神学习体会。高瑞东认为，短期政策 强调底线思维，目标是实现"四稳"——也即会议提出的"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。会议 具体围绕着力保民生、大力发展服务消费、加快财政资金落地和用好货币政策，部署了四条政策主线。 高瑞东强调，稳就业放在"四稳"之首，指向就业受到当前决策层的高度重视。后续来看，预计稳就业政 策将持续落地。一方面，通过提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例等，降低企业裁员压力。另一方面，预计 重大项目也将加速落地，以工代赈吸纳沿海就业人群。长期政策则要用深化改革开放的办法解决发展中 的问题，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，持续用力推进关键核心技术攻关，方能在国际经贸斗争中立于 有利地位。"长远看还是东风浩荡"，只要我们保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事，时与势终将站到 中国一方。(人民财讯) ...

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the dual focus on risk prevention and market stabilization in the real estate sector, aiming to promote demand and optimize supply while ensuring housing delivery and quality [3][4][5]. Group 1: Risk Prevention and Market Stabilization - The report identifies risk prevention as the primary task for the real estate sector, highlighting the need to manage risks associated with key enterprises and ensure no systemic risks arise [4][5]. - Local governments are encouraged to implement measures to stabilize the real estate market, with over 14 provinces already committing to "stop the decline and stabilize" the market [4][5]. - The report introduces the "Financial 16 Measures" to alleviate liquidity pressures on quality real estate companies, with a focus on ensuring housing delivery [4][5][11]. Group 2: Demand Side Measures - The report advocates for the reduction of restrictive measures tailored to local conditions, aiming to stimulate both rigid and improvement housing demand [6][8]. - Emphasis is placed on accelerating the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is expected to enhance purchasing power and improve mortgage expectations [6][8]. - Various cities, including Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong, and Fujian, are already implementing urban village and dilapidated housing renovations to support market recovery [6][8]. Group 3: Supply Side Optimization - The report outlines a strategy to optimize new supply and revitalize existing inventory, focusing on controlling new land supply while enhancing urban renewal efforts [8][9]. - Local governments are granted greater autonomy in the acquisition of existing residential properties, with an emphasis on utilizing special bonds for land acquisition and inventory reduction [8][9]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment in construction, land acquisition, and the purchase of existing properties [8][9][24]. Group 4: New Development Model - A new development model for the real estate sector is proposed, focusing on high-quality housing that meets the diverse needs of the population [13][15]. - The model emphasizes the importance of quality in development, with a shift from quantity-driven growth to a focus on sustainable and innovative practices [15][16]. - The report highlights the need for a balanced approach to land supply and housing demand, ensuring that housing quality aligns with the expectations of residents [13][15]. Group 5: Economic and Employment Goals - The government sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs, linking economic stability to housing consumption [19][20]. - Policies are designed to enhance residents' income and employment, which are crucial for boosting housing demand and consumer confidence [19][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a coordinated policy approach to ensure effective implementation and positive market expectations [19][20].