↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：张翼轸 来源：雪球 周一的行情 ， 银行股尽力了 。 是的 ， 因为上周芯片利好的刺激 ， 外加周一下午 3 点会议的憧憬 ， 所以市场弥漫着乐观的情绪 。 所以 ， 银行股早早上班 ， 在刚开盘有冒头向上痕迹时 ， 就狠狠下压 。 上证指数(红色曲线)大多数时候与中证银行(绿色曲线)同步略滞后 。 也 就是到了 2 点后 ， 银行股调控惯例躺平 ， 就躺平了这么一个小时不到 ， 上证指数就从跌 0.32%变成上涨 0.22%报收 ， 可见市场上涨的意愿 有多强烈 。 如果看类似中证1000 这样的小盘股 ， 更为明显 ， 尾盘不到一个小时的拉升 ， 轻松创出全日新高 。 全日行业表现 ， 依然是熟悉的味道 。 半导体和通信两翼齐飞 ， 此外机器人 、 电池表现也不错 ， 二线成长中就是光伏产业比较萎靡 。 | 名称 | 现价 | 两目图 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 5日涨跌幅 | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 科创芯片 ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The A-share market is currently in the early stage of a "two-year peak" cycle, following a three-year decline and a year of recovery with seven months of sideways movement [1] - The market is identified as being at the end of the second phase of a bull market and the beginning of the third phase, which is characterized as a "main rising wave" that can last for an extended period [1][2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment exhibits cyclical behavior between bull and bear markets, with the current sentiment indicating a transition from the end of the second phase to the beginning of the third phase, which is expected to be a more favorable period for investors [2] - Investors are cautioned against making impulsive decisions based on daily market fluctuations, as the current high sentiment among retail investors may lead to volatility [2] Investment Strategy - For individual investors, it is recommended to invest in broad-based ETFs rather than sector-specific ETFs, as the latter can be more volatile and require deeper understanding of business models and industry trends [2][3] - Broad-based ETFs, such as the CSI 300 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF, are considered suitable for individual investors due to their lower volatility and easier psychological management [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) shows a significant rebound, with bullish investors expecting it to rise to 25,000, supported by a recovery price of 24,020 for overnight bull certificates [1] - Alibaba (09988.HK) has potential upward movement, with bullish investors targeting a price of 130 HKD, while the stock closed at 113.5 HKD, reflecting a 6.97% increase [3] - Bilibili-W (09626.HK) has broken through the upper Bollinger Band at 182 HKD, closing at 184.9 HKD, indicating a "buy" signal with resistance levels at 194.5 HKD and 200 HKD [6] Group 2 - NetEase-S (09999.HK) shows signs of a rebound, with a "buy" signal and resistance levels at 216 HKD and 224 HKD, suggesting that options with a strike price around 220 HKD may be more favorable [9] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) is experiencing upward momentum, closing near the upper Bollinger Band at 76.4 HKD, with a strong buy signal and resistance levels at 78.4 HKD and 82.3 HKD [12] - Alibaba Health (00241.HK) has risen for six consecutive days, with resistance levels at 4.8 HKD and 5.13 HKD, and options with a strike price of 4.51 HKD are considered reasonable [15]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The banking sector is currently experiencing strong performance, potentially in the mid-stage of a bull market, with most bank stocks rising over 30% since April 7, indicating strong sustainability and characteristics of a primary upward trend [1][11] - The brokerage sector is identified as a key factor in breaking the current market situation, with the China Securities Company Index around 800 points, theoretically having room to rise to 876 points [1][21] - Current market hotspots include home appliances, electricity, engineering testing, and coal, but these are not indicative of a primary upward trend, merely small breakthroughs [4][16] Core Insights and Arguments - The current market divergence reflects uncertainty among investors regarding market strength and the speed of sector rotation, with some believing in strong market momentum while others see a lack of clear leading sectors [3] - The bull market is expected to continue until mid-July, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3,509 to 3,550 points, suggesting caution against opening new positions [1][19] - The banking sector's price-to-book ratio is approximately 0.6 to 0.7, indicating long-term investment value despite a slower rise [11][27] - The brokerage sector's performance is crucial for the market's upward movement, requiring a weekly increase of over 15 points to establish a primary upward trend [10][23] Important but Overlooked Content - The steel and construction materials sectors are currently less attractive for investment, particularly due to the incomplete recovery of the real estate market [13] - The healthcare sector has shown signs of fatigue after a recent rebound, indicating a lack of strong momentum [14] - The current market environment favors sectors with high cost-performance ratios, including electronics, non-bank financials, military, banking, media, telecommunications, chemicals, computers, and non-ferrous metals [29] - In a bullish cycle, sectors such as military, computers, media, electronics, and telecommunications are expected to maintain upward trends in the near term [30] - The stable investment style may lose its appeal if macroeconomic conditions improve, as sectors like consumption, growth, and finance become more attractive [39]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is currently at a boiling point, indicating a potential for short-term pullbacks, but the mid-term structure remains strong [1] - The average stock price index is in a narrow consolidation range, suggesting a stable strong continuation pattern, with expectations for at least three trading sessions of this behavior [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index have broken through a two-trading session consolidation, currently confirming the validity of this breakout [1] Group 2 - Finding operationally strong stocks is challenging, as growth stocks have already been driven up, while traditional speculative trading is prevalent in weaker stocks [2] - The market is approaching a mid-point, with historical patterns suggesting a significant turning point may occur this month [2] - A strong low-buy strategy remains the most prudent approach until a clear main upward trend is established [2]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting their focus from high-dividend assets like banks and gold to sectors such as non-ferrous metals and technology, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached all-time highs, reflecting optimistic expectations for the market's future [1][3] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is projected to increase the federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade [4] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a structural market, with participants in the "Digging Gold" competition receiving benefits such as free access to market analysis for a limited time [2][9] - Participants in the competition are optimistic about sectors like copper-clad laminates and high-temperature superconductors, driven by AI and data center demands [6] - The Shanghai Superconductor's IPO has been accepted, aiming to raise 1.2 billion yuan, and it is one of the few companies capable of mass-producing high-temperature superconducting materials [6] Group 3 - The adjustment of the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10% is expected to enhance liquidity and reduce speculation in the ST (special treatment) stocks [6] - The competition offers various cash rewards based on performance, with a focus on encouraging positive returns among participants [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, indicating the beginning of a new bull market, driven by increased market confidence and favorable policies [3][4]. Market Performance - As of June 26, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3460.62 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw increases of 0.26% and 0.30% respectively [1]. - On June 25, all three major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3455.97 points, up 1.03%, and the ChiNext Index rising by 3.11% [2]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts believe that the recent surge in A-shares reflects a shift in market sentiment, with the impact of negative overseas news diminishing [3]. - The current market conditions are seen as a confirmation of a primary upward trend, with potential targets for the Shanghai Composite Index set at around 3674 points [4]. Sector Focus - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, military industry, and financial technology, as these are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [4]. - The long-term outlook suggests that China may produce the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, and consumer upgrades will create opportunities for brand revaluation [3]. Catalysts for Growth - Recent measures by the central bank and other departments to encourage long-term capital inflow have positively impacted the financial sector, particularly brokerage stocks [5]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, has contributed to a reduction in global risk aversion, further enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [5].

Group 1 - The current market is assumed to be breaking out of a consolidation phase, indicating the start of a major upward trend, with sentiment indicators returning from a low to a warmer zone [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has already achieved a breakout and is in an attacking posture [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index has also achieved a breakout and is in an attacking posture [2] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index has just reached the upper boundary of its consolidation structure, indicating an attacking posture [3] - However, a divergence in momentum has been observed on a 5-minute scale, suggesting that short-term gains may be limited [4] Group 3 - The overall market situation aligns with previous analyses, indicating that the pullback will not be too deep and that the market is at the end of the first phase of a bull market, which typically lasts 8 to 10 months [6] - It is noted that before entering a major upward phase, the sentiment indicators may drop into a cold zone but not necessarily to freezing levels, as seen in previous bull markets in 2014 and 2019 [6][7] Group 4 - A common characteristic before a major upward trend is a narrow, rhythmic, and self-disciplined fluctuation or consolidation structure, typically requiring at least three touches (3T) [8] - Currently, the market is only at 2T in its consolidation structure, suggesting a potential short-term pullback for confirmation before a breakout [8] Group 5 - There is caution against excessive excitement in the media regarding the market, as recent gains in brokerage stocks are limited to a few mid-cap firms, indicating a possible high-level distribution rather than a broad-based rally [8] - The real surge is observed in financial software stocks, driven by policy announcements, which typically attract speculative trading [8] - The proportion of stocks with gains exceeding 5% is not high, indicating a long-tail effect where only a small number of stocks are performing exceptionally well [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3455.97 points, up 1.03% [2] - Analysts believe that the current bull market phase began on September 24, 2024, and the index has fully recovered from previous losses, confirming a main upward wave [3] - The recent surge in the market is attributed to several factors, including the easing geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The financial sector, particularly brokerage stocks, has played a significant role in driving the market's rise, supported by measures from the central bank to encourage long-term capital inflow [3] - There is a strong recommendation to focus on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, military industry, and financial technology for potential investment opportunities [3] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a notable increase in risk appetite, suggesting that high-quality companies are currently undervalued and present a good long-term investment opportunity [2]

Group 1 - The current A-share market shows limited pullback with nearly 4000 stocks rising, indicating a lack of confidence among investors despite positive market movements [1][5] - The market has been in a correction phase for 8 months, and missing the upcoming main upward trend could lead to a repeat of 2024's performance [3][5] - The A-share market is expected to experience a main upward wave, and investors are advised to remain patient and not to overthink the situation [3][5] Group 2 - A new market cycle is believed to be starting, with key sectors such as liquor, securities, and real estate showing signs of synchronized movement [5][7] - The recent market dynamics suggest that the banking sector has fulfilled its role, and the current pullback is a transition of funds between high and low growth stocks [5][7] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, as nearly 4000 stocks rising indicates that there are no significant underlying issues [5][7]