《孙子兵法》中说：善战者，无智名，无勇功，胜于易胜者也。 聪明的将军，总是选择去战胜那些不堪一击的敌人。他们这样做，也许得不到智名，得不到勇功，但却 能确保胜利，这就已经足够！ 交易也一样，学会放弃那些危险的机会，学会只在十拿九稳的机会中出手，学会顺着趋势交易，而不是 逆流而上，这也是一位优秀交易者的必备素养。每个人一生中，都会碰到2、3次大好机会。能否把握这 千载难逢的良机，要靠平常的努力与身心的磨炼。做重大决策时，往往需要直觉，这个直觉并非来自天 赋，而是来自无数次战斗所累积的经验。 在这个市场上，拼的不是谁的钱多，而是看谁能活得更长。这不是一场比赛，而是一场攀登，看的不是 你的速度，而是你的力量。不管你爬多高，只要掉下去，你的分数就会变成零，甚至会被打得粉身碎 骨！做生意，要忍耐，要敢于面对，市场上的机遇是无限的，机会是有限的，每个人都有自己的优势和 弱点，只有客观地认识自己，才能真正地了解自己。 我炒股17年，盈利7年，总结出10条铁律，话很短，含金量很大，如果看完觉得没用，随你怎么说我！ 1、在下降趋势中阳线反弹一般就是1根或者2根，最多不会超过3根。一旦超过3连阳，则说明趋势很可 能就要发生逆转。 ...

大盘走出8连阳，周五放量收阳十字星，盘中出现跳水，收盘3963.68点，成交21601亿，外资继续休息。板块上海南自贸区，小金属等表现较强，次新， 消费电子，能源系列等表现较差。个股跌多涨少。 | स्टेसि | 开始时间 | 结束时间 | 天数 | 春季躁动收益率 全年收益率 | | 日均涨幅 | 期间指数走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2010 | 2010/2/8 | 2010/4/14 | 42 | 9.78% | - 6 8 | 0.23% | | | 2011 | 2011/1/25 | 2011/4/18 | રૂડે | 14.32% | -22.42% | 0.27% | | | 2012 | 2012/1/6 | 2012/3/2 | 36 | 15.20% | 4.68% | 0.42% | | | 2013 | 2012/12/4 | 2013/2/8 | 46 | 25.20% | 5.44% | 0.55R | | | 2014 | 2014/1/14 | 2014/2/19 | 22 | 9.60 ...

中泰证券表示，展望后市，春节前行情整体仍具备上行空间，短期仍有逢低布局机会。当前阶段，制约 市场的主要风险因素已较前期明显弱化，风险偏好有望维持较高水平。从外部环境看，前期市场对全球 流动性预期收紧以及美股高估值AI板块回调的担忧有所缓解。需要强调的是，当前市场更符合"底部夯 实后、为春节前行情做准备"的阶段特征，而非主升浪已正式开启。当前市场资金更多采取"逢低布局、 结构切换"的参与方式，而非在高位进行趋势性加仓。这决定了短期行情更可能以"震荡中逐步抬高重 心、内部结构持续调整"的方式演绎，而非快速拉升并形成单边、持续的赚钱效应。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The extreme drop in the stock price of Wangshan Wangshui-B (02630) from HKD 97 to HKD 51, a nearly 50% decline, is seen as a recalibration of market order rather than the end of the story, leading to a clear double W bottom formation and subsequent upward trend [1] Phase 1: Panic Sell-off and Liquidity Crisis - From November 6 to November 12, the newly listed Wangshan Wangshui experienced a rapid decline of 44.37%, dropping from HKD 97 to HKD 51, which is still approximately 70% above the issue price of HKD 33.37, indicating that the drop was more about eliminating irrational early-stage bubbles [2] - The total trading volume during this period was 7.8622 million shares, with a 94.9% bearish volume ratio, suggesting that almost all liquid shares underwent a turnover, providing a solid foundation for new institutional investors [2][3] Phase 2: Double W Bottom Formation and Shift in Market Sentiment - From November 13 to November 21, the market quickly organized a rebound, forming a right bottom at HKD 52.55, which is higher than the left bottom at HKD 51, confirming the area as an effective low point [4] - The bullish volume reached 974,200 shares, surpassing the bearish volume of 846,400 shares for the first time since the drop, indicating a fundamental shift in market sentiment [4] Phase 3: Main Uptrend Breakthrough and Self-Reinforcing Trend - From November 24 to December 2, the stock price surged from HKD 59.85 to HKD 79.3, a 31.42% increase, successfully breaking through the neck line at HKD 74, indicating a strong bullish trend [6] - The low turnover rate of 1.13% during this period suggests that circulating shares were highly locked, indicating strong control by the main force [6] Phase 4: Healthy Consolidation and Technical Confirmation Post Main Uptrend - From December 3 to December 11, the stock price corrected from a high of HKD 79.3 to a low of HKD 70.5, resulting in a 7.80% decline, which is considered a healthy adjustment rather than a trend reversal [8] - The total trading volume of 962,440 shares during this period was slightly higher than during the main uptrend, indicating a typical "pullback with volume" phenomenon, while the 1.44% turnover rate suggests good locking of shares despite the adjustment [10][11]

在资本市场的技术分析框架中，一次极端的"断崖式"暴跌，往往并非故事的终点，而可能是一场精密计 算的秩序重构。 智通财经APP观察到，旺山旺水-B（02630）在经历从97元至51元、幅度近50%的垂直打击后，并未陷 入漫长的阴跌，反而在迅速构筑起一个结构清晰、量价配合经典的双W底形，并最终展开一轮流畅的主 升浪。下文，我们将穿透K线图与成交量的表层，剖析其背后主力运作的深层逻辑与市场情绪转换的微 观密码。 第一阶段：恐慌性暴跌与流动性危机 11月6日至12日，刚刚上市的旺山旺水经历了一场极限压力测试。其股价在短短5个交易日内从97港元的 高点急速坠落至51港元，累计跌幅达44.37%，完成了次近乎腰斩的极端调整。 值得关注的是，即使跌至51元低点，股价仍比发行价33.37港元高出约70%。这表明暴跌并未跌破发行 价这一核心价值锚，更多是挤出上市初期非理性泡沫的过程。此外，当首批获利丰厚的筹码（以发行价 计获利仍超70%）开始集体兑现时，由于流通盘（仅十分之一股份）本身很小，巨大的卖盘相对于有限 的活跃买盘形成碾压。 786.22万手的区间总成交与94.9%的阴量占比，以及超过10%的换手，意味着几乎所有流动筹 ...

Group 1 - The market is entering a new and more vibrant phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, indicating a potential for a sustained upward trend, contingent on solid economic fundamentals and improved corporate earnings [2] - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the CSI A50, A100, and A500 indices, providing investors with diverse options to invest in China's market [2] - The A50 ETF focuses on the top 50 leading companies, while the A100 ETF encompasses the top 100 industry leaders, and the A500 ETF targets the top 500 companies in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 365.9 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating heightened market activity [1] - The number of stocks that rose and fell in the market was 3361, with 217 stocks increasing and 1862 stocks decreasing, reflecting a mixed market sentiment [1] - The top three industries with net capital inflow were electronics, non-ferrous metals, and another unspecified sector, with inflows of 58.69 billion yuan, 139.46 billion yuan, and 62.80 billion yuan respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index's approach to the 4000-point mark signifies a new, more dynamic phase for the market, driven by policy support and restored investor confidence [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The potential for a sustained upward trend ("main rising wave") depends on solid economic fundamentals and tangible improvements in corporate earnings [1] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious optimism, focusing on sector rotation and changes in trading volume to prepare for market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include policy beneficiaries such as brokerage firms, state-owned enterprises, high-end manufacturing, and the digital economy [1] - Economic recovery sectors include discretionary consumption (automobiles, home appliances) and certain cyclical products [1] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in new energy and technology fields like artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant volatility, with retail investors aggressively buying while institutional investors were quietly reducing their positions, raising questions about the sustainability of the recent market rally [1][7]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Signals - The State Council emphasized the need for impactful policies and reforms to stimulate economic growth, indicating a commitment to maintaining economic momentum [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on sectors like infrastructure, new energy, and high technology, which are likely to benefit from government support [3]. - Financial regulatory bodies collectively stressed the importance of market stability, with the central bank injecting liquidity through a 900 billion MLF operation [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - There is a notable divergence between retail and institutional investor behavior, with retail investors betting on short-term gains while institutions remain cautious, leading to a net sell-off by active funds [7]. - The recent U.S. CPI data suggests potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could influence A-share market dynamics, although foreign investment remains hesitant [9][10]. - The current market environment is characterized by a tug-of-war between policy support and institutional caution, indicating a complex trading landscape for investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic sentiment in the market driven by favorable news in the semiconductor sector and expectations from a meeting scheduled at 3 PM on Monday, highlighting the performance of bank stocks and the overall market dynamics [3][4]. Market Performance - Bank stocks showed early signs of upward movement but faced downward pressure shortly after the market opened. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, eventually closing up 0.22% after a brief decline [4]. - Small-cap stocks, such as those in the CSI 1000 index, experienced significant gains, reaching new highs in the last hour of trading [6]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor and communication sectors performed well, with notable contributions from robotics and battery industries. However, the photovoltaic industry showed weakness [8]. - Specific sector performance data includes: - Sci-tech chips: 62.77% year-to-date increase - Consumer electronics: 52.99% year-to-date increase - Sci-tech AI: 63.77% year-to-date increase - CSI All Index Semiconductor: 45.71% year-to-date increase [9]. Economic Indicators - The latest data from the central bank indicates that household deposits amount to 161.02 trillion yuan, with a market value ratio of 1.56 compared to the total market capitalization of 103.29 billion yuan at the end of August [14]. - The rolling 12-month increase in household deposits has stabilized around 14 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the nearly 24 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2023 [16]. Market Cycle Insights - Analyst Zhang Xia suggests that the Chinese economy and stock market follow a five-year cycle, predicting a "main rising wave" phase in the next 2-3 years post-2024 [17]. - The current market is considered to be in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by self-reinforcing incremental capital [21][22]. - Zhang emphasizes that the transition to a low-valuation, pro-cyclical market is likely to occur in the following year, driven by economic improvements and inflation [23].

Market Cycle Analysis - The A-share market is currently in the early stage of a "two-year peak" cycle, following a three-year decline and a year of recovery with seven months of sideways movement [1] - The market is identified as being at the end of the second phase of a bull market and the beginning of the third phase, which is characterized as a "main rising wave" that can last for an extended period [1][2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment exhibits cyclical behavior between bull and bear markets, with the current sentiment indicating a transition from the end of the second phase to the beginning of the third phase, which is expected to be a more favorable period for investors [2] - Investors are cautioned against making impulsive decisions based on daily market fluctuations, as the current high sentiment among retail investors may lead to volatility [2] Investment Strategy - For individual investors, it is recommended to invest in broad-based ETFs rather than sector-specific ETFs, as the latter can be more volatile and require deeper understanding of business models and industry trends [2][3] - Broad-based ETFs, such as the CSI 300 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF, are considered suitable for individual investors due to their lower volatility and easier psychological management [3]