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纸浆数据日报-20250918
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 11:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts, and pulp futures are oscillating [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On September 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5348, 5042, and 5368 respectively, with daily changes of -0.04%, -0.51%, and 0.19%, and weekly changes of 1.44%, 0.92%, and 1.78% [5] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5250, and 4220 respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.96%, and weekly changes of 0.00%, 1.55%, and 0.96% [5] - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5] Fundamental Data Supply - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.85% [5] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, fluctuated within a certain range [5] Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [5] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, also fluctuated [5] Demand - The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard from July 31, 2025, to September 11, 2025, remained relatively stable [5] Valuation Data - On September 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 208 with a quantile level of 0.901, and the Silver Star basis was 608 with a quantile level of 0.871 [5] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -71 with a quantile level of 0.496, and that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -124 with a quantile level of 0.522 [5] Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broadleaf pulp quotes [5] - On the demand side, the current demand for paper products is basically stable, and some paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - On the inventory side, the inventory change is not significant [5]
纸浆数据日报-20250917
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 06:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no obvious reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. However, benefiting from the warming of commodity sentiment, pulp futures are expected to run strongly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, 2025, SP2601 was 5324 with a daily increase of 0.87% and a weekly increase of 0.64%; SP2511 was 5056 with a daily increase of 1.32% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2509 was 4970 with a daily increase of 0.69% and a weekly decrease of 0.04% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.88%; Russian Needle was 5200 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.58%; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily and weekly change [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a decrease of 2.70% compared to the previous period; Japanese Quote increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, an increase of 3.87% compared to the previous period; Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a decrease of 2.68%; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a decrease of 4.72% compared to June; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 135.1 tons, a decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23% [5]. - **Production**: The domestic production of eucalyptus pulp and chemimechanical pulp remained relatively stable from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard remained relatively stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 16, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 144 with a quantile level of 0.871; the basis of Silver Star was 594 with a quantile level of 0.865 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 16, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; the import profit of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.479 [5].
纸浆数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report Core View - The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of recovery, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts, indicating a short - term weak performance [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On September 10, 2025, the futures price of coniferous pulp Silver Star (SP2601) was 5272, with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decrease of 0.98%; the spot price was 5650, with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 1.22%. The futures price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170, unchanged daily and down 0.58% weekly [1]. - The futures price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish (SP2509) was 4938, with a daily increase of 0.16% and a weekly decrease of 1.20%; the price was 4180, unchanged daily and down 0.48% weekly [1]. - The external quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; the import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%. The external quotation of Brazilian Goldfish was 530, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%; the price was 4344, a month - on - month increase of 3.87% [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72%; the supply of broad - leaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.85%. The pulp shipment volume to China increased by 23% [1]. - As of September 4, 2025, the domestic production volume of broad - leaf pulp was 21.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 21.1 tons. The pulp port inventory was 206.6 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.7 tons [1]. - The production volume of offset paper was 19.50 tons, that of coated paper was 7.80 tons, that of tissue paper was 28.15 tons, and that of white cardboard was 33.80 tons [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - On September 10, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 174, with a quantile level of 0.889; the import profit was - 234, with a quantile level of 0.271. The basis of Silver Star was 654, with a quantile level of 0.884 [1]. - The basis of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 164, with a quantile level of 0.478 [1]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotation, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the supply of broad - leaf pulp Star decreased by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at $590/ton [1]. - Demand: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [1]. - Inventory: As of September 4, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 206.6 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%, showing a de - stocking trend [1].
银河期货纸浆周报-20250714
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 07:39
Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report (Week 2, July 2025) [1] - Analyst: Pan Shengjie from the Commodity Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The pulp market fundamentals are stabilizing [3] - The supply - demand relationship in the pulp market has not improved significantly, and weak demand restricts the rebound of pulp prices [4] - Global pulp market shows a growth trend in the past five months, especially the domestic market [4] Summary by Directory Pulp Market Fundamentals - This week, the spot prices of imported wood pulp varied. Imported softwood pulp prices rebounded from the bottom, narrowing the decline of the average price; imported hardwood pulp prices rose due to non - standard basis quotes and low - price reluctance to sell; the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly, and the demand was weak; imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp prices followed the decline of imported softwood pulp prices [4] - From the monthly hardwood pulp balance data, the current fundamentals are favorable for the relative strength of hardwood pulp. The cost support for the hardwood - softwood price spread in July has improved [4] - Trump's new tariff policies push the US economic policy uncertainty index to a record high. The US tariff policy on Brazil may increase Brazil's hardwood pulp exports to other regions and is negative for the basis of Brazilian hardwood pulp. The US tariff on Canada is expected to be negative for the basis of Canadian softwood pulp [4] - As of May, global pulp shipments decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Softwood pulp shipments decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, while hardwood pulp shipments increased by 3.1% year - on - year. However, the cumulative shipments in 2025 still had a nearly 10% year - on - year increase. The global pulp industry's operating rate was close to 90% for the second consecutive month in May, but it also brought inventory pressure. In May, softwood pulp inventory increased by 5 days to 46 days, and hardwood pulp inventory increased by 4 days to 51 days. The domestic paper - making enterprises' finished - product inventory decreased by 0.2% year - on - year in May, the first year - on - year decrease since April 2024 [4] Impact of Softwood Supply on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased by 238,000 tons month - on - month, consumption increased by 269,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The average value in the past 12 months increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 6 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] - Domestic softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp). Softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The total long - fiber imports were 832,000 tons, with a 4.3% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the decline has been narrowing for 7 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] Impact of Hardwood Supply on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of May 2025, hardwood chip imports increased by 1.289 million tons month - on - month, equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp; hardwood pulp imports increased by 1.309 million tons month - on - month. Softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons, equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp; softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 4 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] - The use of hardwood pulp in domestic paper decreased by 2.224 million tons month - on - month, and the use of softwood pulp decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and the growth has been expanding for 8 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] Impact of International Pulp and Paper Trade on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, domestic pulp import value increased by $1.906 billion month - on - month, and the US pulp import value decreased by $308 million month - on - month in April. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion, with a 3.6% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [23] - The total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral with full impact [23] Impact of Port Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of July 11, 2025, the total inventory of four ports and warehouse receipts was 2.378 million tons, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [29] Impact of Port Inventory on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of July 11, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 8.94 times. The average value in the past 6 months increased by 60.7% year - on - year, and the marginal inventory decreased for 3 months, which is relatively negative for hardwood pulp [34] Impact of Manufacturing PMI on SP Unilateral - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months, reaching 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 3 months. The US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month, reaching 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 10 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [42] Impact of Domestic Paper Production and Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of April 2025, domestic paper industry electricity consumption decreased month - on - month, reaching 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] - Domestic paper industry finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 13 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] Impact of US Economic Policy and International Oil Price on SP Unilateral - As of July 2025, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month, reaching 435.3 points, with an 82.8% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing. Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month, reaching $69.1 per barrel, with a 20.9% year - on - year decrease in the average value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been narrowing, with marginal strengthening, which is positive for SP price [56] Impact of International Trade and US Dollar Index on SP Unilateral - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 2 months, which is positive for SP valuation [57] - In June, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months, reaching 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and continuous marginal increase for 16 months, which is negative for SP unilateral. The general cycle of the US dollar index is 22 months [63]
纸浆数据日报-20250707
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 05:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On July 4, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2507, and SP2509 decreased by 0.49%, 0.51%, and 0.51% respectively compared to the previous day, and SP2507 and SP2509 decreased by 0.98% and 0.55% respectively compared to the previous week. The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish were 5900, 5120, and 4020 respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.74% [1] - The foreign - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 720, 560, and 620 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.70%, 0.00%, and 0.00%. The import costs were 5884, 4587, and 5073 yuan respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.68%, 0.00%, and 0.00% [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1353 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - On July 3, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 20.5 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 million tons. The pulp port inventory was 221.3 million tons, and the delivery - warehouse inventory was 24.60 million tons. The production of main finished paper products such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed different trends [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On July 4, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 52, with a quantile level of 0.959; the basis of Silver Star was 832. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars/ton to 720 dollars/ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply increased while the price decreased [1] - Demand: The production of main finished paper products increased slightly this week, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory: As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 million tons, an increase of 5.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250704
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 07:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On July 3, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5306, up 0.42% day - on - day and 0.80% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5048, up 0.76% day - on - day and down 0.24% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5094, up 0.43% day - on - day and 0.55% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.84% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4020, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.74% week - on - week [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars): Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In May 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.2 tons, down 4.75% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 129.3 tons, up 7.84% month - on - month [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, down 30.80% month - on - month [1] - On June 20, Arauco cut the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) for June by $20/ton to $720/ton, and the shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period, down 2.0% [1] - The delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons [1] Demand - This week, the production of major finished papers decreased, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On July 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 26, at the 0.756 quantile; the Silver Star basis was 806, at the 0.951 quantile [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, at the 0.65 quantile; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, at the 0.187 quantile [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250703
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 08:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 2, 2025, SP2601 was 5284 with a daily increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; SP2507 was 5048 with a daily increase of 0.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.24%; SP2509 was 5072 with a daily increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 0.04% [1] - **Spot Prices**: On July 2, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900 with no daily change and a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%; the spot price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5120 with no daily and year - on - year change; the spot price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4020 with no daily change and a year - on - year decrease of 0.74% [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In July 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Star was 560 with no change; the outer - disk quote of Chilean Venus was 620 with no change [1] - **Import Costs**: In July 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%; the import cost of Chilean Star was 4587 with no change; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 with no change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [1] - **Shipment Volume to China**: In April 2025, the pulp shipment volume to China was 1353, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - **Domestic Production**: For broad - leaf pulp, the domestic production on June 26, 2025, was 20.6 tons; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 20.3 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.3 tons, the delivery warehouse inventory was 24.60 tons, the double - offset paper inventory was 20.40 tons, and the copper - plate paper inventory was 7.60 tons [1] - **Finished Paper Production**: On June 26, 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 20.40 tons, copper - plate paper was 7.60 tons, tissue paper was 28.00 tons, and white cardboard was 30.30 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 2, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 48 with a quantile level of 0.797; the Silver Star basis was 828 with a quantile level of 0.959 [1] - **Import Profit**: On July 2, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16 with a quantile level of 0.65; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567 with a quantile level of 0.186 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: On June 20, 2025, Arauco decided to lower the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars per ton to 720 dollars per ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month, showing an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1] - **Demand**: In the current week, the production of major finished papers decreased. The prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 216.3 tons, a decrease of 4.5 tons from the previous period and a 2.0% month - on - month decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250620
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 05:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short - term, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5266 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.42%; SP2507 was 5250 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly decrease of 0.27%; SP2509 was 5254 with a daily increase of 0.50% and a weekly increase of 0.77% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6050 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.63%; Knitted Coniferous was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.87%; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4100 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.49% [1]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, Chilean Star was 560 dollars, and Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, all with no monthly change [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, Chilean Star was 4587, and Chilean Venus was 5073, all with no monthly change [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons (month - on - month - 5.01%), broad - leaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons (month - on - month - 18.44%); the pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1353 tons (month - on - month - 30.80%). The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp on June 19, 2025, was 20.9 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 19.9 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 220.8 tons (a 2.3 - ton increase from the previous period, a 1.1% week - on - week increase); the delivery warehouse inventory was 23.53 tons [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the production of major finished paper decreased, and the finished paper prices remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: The Russian coniferous basis was - 4 with a quantile level of 0.693; the Silver Star basis was 796 with a quantile level of 0.954 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 4 with a quantile level of 0.619; that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 487 with a quantile level of 0.204 [1].
纸浆数据日报-20250528
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:52
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The current demand for pulp is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5216, down 1.58% day - on - day and 2.21% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5274, down 2.37% day - on - day and 2.51% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5184, down 2.19% day - on - day and 2.59% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On May 27, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, down 0.80% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5350, down 1.83% day - on - day and week - on - week; Eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was 4100, down 2.38% day - on - day and week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In May 2025, the outer - disk quote of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton; Star was 560 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton; Venus was 620 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton [1] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 6046, down 3.87% month - on - month; Star was 4587, down 11.00% month - on - month; Venus was 5073, down 4.57% month - on - month [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; the import volume of eucalyptus pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1813, up 20.70% month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 215.7 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [1] - **Demand**: Among the main finished paper production, the production of white cardboard increased slightly, and the production of other paper types was stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor, and downstream paper mills made rigid - demand purchases [1] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 76, with a quantile level of 0.833; the Silver Star basis was 926, with a quantile level of 0.979 [1] - **Import Profit**: On May 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 154, with a quantile level of 0.808; the import profit of eucalyptus pulp Goldfish was - 487, with a quantile level of 0.2 [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250527
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 05:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current weak demand pattern for pulp remains unchanged, but the near - month contracts are strongly supported by low warehouse receipts [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 26, 2025, SP2601 was 5300, down 0.30% day - on - day and 0.34% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5402, down 1.13% day - on - day and up 0.22% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5300, down 0.71% day - on - day and 0.19% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On May 26, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6250, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.79% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5450, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.18% week - on - week [1] - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: The external quote of Chilean Silver Star in May 2025 was 740 dollars/ton, down 3.90% month - on - month; the import cost was 6046, down 3.87% month - on - month. Chilean Star's external quote was 560 dollars/ton, down 11.11% month - on - month; the import cost was 4587, down 11.00% month - on - month. Chilean Venus's external quote was 620 dollars/ton, down 4.62% month - on - month; the import cost was 5073, down 4.57% month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The shipment volume of pulp to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, up 20.70% month - on - month [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the port inventory of pulp was 215.7 tons, down 1.9% from the previous period. The delivery warehouse inventory was 26.10 tons [1] - **Demand**: The output of finished paper: double - offset paper was 20.03 tons; coated paper was 7.60 tons; tissue paper was 27.60 tons; white cardboard was 28.30 tons. The output of white cardboard increased slightly, while the output of other paper types was stable [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On May 26, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 0.805, and the import profit was 48; the basis of Silver Star was 0.972, and the import profit was 848. The import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 387 [1] Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco announced the May 2025 wood pulp external quotes: coniferous pulp Silver Star at 740 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; broadleaf pulp Star had no supply in May and June, with partial supply recovery expected in July; natural pulp Venus at 620 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton [1] - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid purchases [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 22, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports showed a downward trend [1]