曹恩惠/文 一、案例背景 绿色低碳已成为全球产业竞争的新赛道，推动电子制造产业绿色化、低碳化、智能化发展，不仅是减排 的必然选择，更是培育新质生产力、增强国际竞争力的战略举措。 电子信息制造业是国民经济的战略性、基础性、先导性产业，规模总量大、产业链条长、涉及领域广， 是稳定工业经济增长、维护国家政治经济安全的重要领域。而电子产业作为全球碳排放增长最快的领域 之一，年碳排放量已突破1.2亿吨。在"双碳"目标指引下，其绿色转型不仅是应对气候变化的必然选 择，更是重塑全球产业链竞争力的战略机遇。 中国电子制造业虽具规模优势，但亟待通过转型驱动增长，重构产业竞争力。为此，国家正探索将数字 化转型与开展大规模设备更新行动、实施技术改造升级工程等有机结合，走出一条以数字化转型助力节 能减排，以绿色能源电子制造产品的发展道路，鼓励建设一批绿色智能工厂、极致能效工厂、零碳工 厂。 根据工业和信息化部等七部门2024年发布的《关于加快推动制造业绿色化发展的指导意见》，要推动数 字化和绿色化深度融合。发挥数字技术在提高资源效率、环境效益、管理效能等方面的赋能作用，加速 生产方式数字化绿色化协同转型。面向重点行业领域在生产制造全 ...

来源：中国经济新闻网 中国经济新闻网讯（记者 张娜）11月29日，由中国经济时报社主办的经济前瞻论坛2025年会在北京召开。国务院发展研究中心副主任、党组成员张顺喜 出席论坛开幕式并致辞。第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展研究基金会理事长、国务院发展研究中心原副主任张军扩发表主旨演讲。 中国社会福利与养老协会会长、复旦大学老龄研究院副院长、教授吴玉韶，中国经济体制改革研究会副会长李晓超，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自 强，国务院发展研究中心产业经济研究部部长田杰棠，国家数据发展研究院院长胡坚波，国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心首席科学家徐华清， 农业农村部农村经济研究中心副主任、党组成员李二超分别发表主题演讲。 会议指出，党的二十届四中全会把推动高质量发展确定为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主题，既与"十四五"规划一脉相承，又在准确把握未来5年发展大 势的基础上部署了战略任务，对于我们继续紧紧抓住高质量发展这个首要任务、全面推进中国式现代化具有重大指导作用。 会议认为，中国正从世界经济发展格局中的追随者转变为数字化和绿色化浪潮的引领者。"十五五"时期，在教育科技人才一体化发展的支撑下，通过培育 新兴产业、未来 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - During the industry downturn, Moutai is actively seeking change, demonstrating anti-cyclical capabilities suitable for long-term investment. The food and beverage index increased by 0.1% from November 24 to November 28, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.6 percentage points. The sub-sectors of processed foods (+5.6%), snacks (+2.9%), and baked goods (+2.7%) performed relatively well. The current liquor industry is in a deep adjustment period, with companies facing high channel inventories, product price inversions, and slowing growth rates. However, Moutai still shows growth potential. The high-quality liquor market in China has vast space for growth, particularly for sauce-flavored liquor and Moutai's market share. Moutai's historical significance and cultural strength are core competitive advantages, and it has successfully navigated multiple cycles in the past. After the third quarter of this adjustment period, Moutai's sales have shown a positive trend, with Moutai 1935 performing exceptionally well, confirming its risk resilience. Moutai's production capacity is subject to clear time constraints, with annual capacity investments not expected to be significant. Capacity release depends on ecological carrying capacity and the cultivation of skilled craftsmen, both of which are fundamental principles for capacity investment. During the industry adjustment period, Moutai will increase production and stockpile base liquor to improve the sales-to-inventory ratio, smoothing out industry cycle fluctuations. The "14th Five-Year Plan" for Moutai is based on positive, scientific, and rational principles, with reasonable goals. The main business focuses on consolidating core product advantages and enhancing channel ecology and competitiveness through series liquor. Innovation efforts are directed towards digital and green transformations, emphasizing consumer demand through product innovation and scenario expansion to adapt to changing consumption trends. Although the liquor industry is still in an adjustment cycle, Moutai's investment value stands out as a high-quality asset. Its strong brand and quality barriers, along with the scarcity of production capacity supported by ecological and craftsmanship guarantees, enhance its long-term momentum. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the company actively maintains market prices with a long-term development focus. Short-term attention should be paid to price changes and sales during the Spring Festival, while long-term views highlight its significant anti-cyclical capabilities and sustainable value creation potential, making it suitable for long-term investment [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 0.1% from November 24 to November 28, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.6 percentage points. The sub-sectors of processed foods (+5.6%), snacks (+2.9%), and baked goods (+2.7%) performed relatively well. Leading stocks included Hai Xin Food, Jia Long Shares, and Yan Tang Dairy, while Nan Qiao Food, Hua Tong Shares, and Bai Run Shares saw declines [12][13][14]. Upstream Data - As of November 18, the GDT auction price for whole milk powder was $3,452 per ton, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 9.8% year-on-year. On November 20, the domestic fresh milk price was 3.03 yuan per kilogram, stable month-on-month but down 3.2% year-on-year. The domestic milk price is expected to continue its downward trend in the short to medium term [16][19]. Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bai Run Shares. Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and emphasize sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures. Shanxi Fenjiu has high mid-term growth certainty, while Ximai Food is experiencing stable growth in its oat business. Weilong Delicious is expected to alleviate declines in noodle products with new product launches, and Bai Run Shares is showing improvement trends in pre-mixed liquor [5][51].

Core Insights - The logistics sector is crucial for the real economy, with a significant reduction in logistics costs supporting economic development and enhancing resource allocation efficiency [1][2][3] - In the first three quarters, China's total social logistics costs reached 14.2 trillion yuan, with a GDP ratio of 14%, marking the lowest level since records began [1][2][3] Group 1: Logistics Cost Reduction - The "linkage unloading" model implemented between Yangshan Port and Lusi Port has successfully reduced logistics costs, saving approximately 200 yuan for imports and 400 yuan for exports per container [2] - The ratio of social logistics costs to GDP has decreased from 18% in 2012 to 14% in 2024, with the current figure at 14% as of Q3 this year [2][3] Group 2: Structural Improvements - The reduction in logistics costs is attributed to the optimization and innovation within the logistics industry, as well as the deep integration of logistics with supply chains [3][4] - The logistics system is being enhanced through the construction of major logistics hubs and the establishment of a "channel + hub + network" operational framework [3][4] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The logistics sector is experiencing significant advancements in digitalization and automation, with the number of automated container terminals and bulk cargo terminals leading globally [4][5] - The application of technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence is transforming logistics into a new productive force [5][6] Group 4: Policy and Reform - The "Action Plan" issued by the central government aims to reduce the logistics cost-to-GDP ratio to around 13.5% by 2027, focusing on key areas like railway and road freight [7][8] - The logistics cost structure consists of transportation (57%), warehousing (31.6%), and management costs (11.4%), indicating potential areas for further cost reduction [7][8]

Core Insights - The project for the production line of high-end forgings with an annual capacity of 150,000 tons is in its final stages, with the first batch of 2,000 tons expected to be produced by the end of December [1][3] - The total investment for the project is 310 million yuan, aimed at supporting China's high-end equipment manufacturing in sectors like marine engineering and aerospace [1][3] Project Development - The project has been under rapid development since its initiation in November last year, with strong government support facilitating smooth administrative processes [3] - A leadership team has been established to ensure quality and progress are maintained simultaneously, with daily monitoring of the project [3] Market Demand and Response - There is a strong market demand for high-end forgings, with over 200 distributors and more than 2,000 direct supply companies already in contact with the company [4] - The company is committed to early production to meet the urgent needs of clients [4] Competitive Advantages - The company boasts high-performance materials, including large round billets and electric slag steel, which provide superior strength, temperature resistance, and fatigue resistance [4] - The project achieves a 95% self-sufficiency rate in energy through the use of recycled water, solar power, and surplus gas, leading to an estimated annual cost saving of 5 million yuan and significant carbon emission reductions [4] Industry Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in the special steel market, ranking among the top five in total output nationwide and holding over 70% market share in the province [5] - The company is focused on high-end, intelligent, and green transformation, fostering an industrial ecosystem centered around itself [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The expansion project enhances the company's scarce attributes and the green transformation strengthens its cost advantages [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a steady increase in aluminum prices, leading to improved profitability as both volume and price rise [11] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 1.05, 1.35, and 1.51 yuan respectively [4] - Based on comparable company valuations, a target price of 14.85 yuan is set for 2026, corresponding to an 11x PE ratio [4] - Revenue projections show a recovery with expected growth rates of 25.5% in 2025, 11.1% in 2026, and 6.1% in 2027 [13] - The company's operating profit is projected to increase significantly, with a forecast of 5,506 million yuan in 2025 and 7,073 million yuan in 2026 [13] Company Progress and Strategic Initiatives - The company is on track to complete its 1.4 million tons electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon efficiency improvement project by Q2 2026, which will enhance its production capacity and energy efficiency [11] - The project utilizes advanced energy-saving technologies, contributing to the company's green transformation and competitive advantage in electricity costs [11] - The company anticipates a significant increase in profitability following the completion of the project, driven by both volume and price increases in the electrolytic aluminum sector [11]

Group 1 - The Xinjiang Changji Coal Trading Conference successfully promoted deep integration of the coal industry chain, resulting in 52 coal purchase and sales projects signed, with a total contract volume exceeding 125 million tons [1] - The Changji region, as a significant energy base in China, showcased its resource endowment and industrial potential, with the predicted coal resource reserves in the Zhuzhong coalfield reaching 390 billion tons, characterized by low ash, low sulfur, low phosphorus, high volatility, high activity, and high calorific value [1][2] - The China Railway Urumqi Bureau Group Company plans to enhance coal transportation efficiency, aiming to transport 142.5 million tons of coal by 2025, while providing approximately 3.68 billion yuan in benefits to local coal enterprises through price reductions [1] Group 2 - The Xinjiang region is experiencing a positive trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the coal industry, with the Zhuzhong Development Zone establishing six major advantageous industrial systems [2] - Significant projects in the Zhuzhong Development Zone include coal-to-gas projects and major coal-to-olefin projects, with an expected industrial output value of 135.98 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - Technological innovation is supporting the green transformation of the coal industry, with projects like coal gas to ethanol and all-vanadium flow energy storage being implemented, promoting a shift from coal as a single fuel to a dual role as both raw material and fuel [2] Group 3 - The successful hosting of the conference highlights Xinjiang's crucial role in the national energy strategy, as the region transitions from a traditional coal production base to a modern energy comprehensive utilization base, contributing to the optimization of China's energy structure and low-carbon development [3]

Core Insights - The steel supply chain is facing challenges such as insufficient service innovation and weak industry chain collaboration, necessitating a push for stable operation and continuous optimization in response to macroeconomic changes and structural adjustments [1] - The company is enhancing its service capabilities by linking supply and demand, providing comprehensive services including steel sales, processing, and price risk management, while promoting digital innovation and green transformation within the supply chain [1] - The launch of the "2025 Product Category Rules (PCR)" and the release of 100 Environmental Product Declarations (EPD) reports signify a significant step towards green standardization and digital collaboration in carbon reduction within the steel industry [2] Group 1 - The steel industry is urged to strengthen collaboration across the industry chain, promote green and low-carbon transformation, and enhance intelligent manufacturing levels for sustainable development [1] - The company served over 14,000 users and sold more than 24 million tons of steel from January to October 2025, indicating robust market engagement [1] - The company is actively participating in international carbon emission accounting and cooperation, advocating for industry players to align with trends and collaborate [1] Group 2 - The steel industry's EPD platform has published a total of 300 EPD reports, marking a critical advancement in the industry's efforts towards green practices and digital collaboration [2]

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry in Jieyang, particularly in Puning, is set to exceed a total scale of 153 billion yuan in 2024, with the textile and apparel sector alone reaching 135 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential for the region [1] - Puning has been selected as one of the first pilot cities in the province for the "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt" initiative, which is expected to drive high-quality economic development in the area [1] - The city is focusing on transforming its industrial chain towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, leveraging its strengths in textile and apparel to enhance its economic performance [1] Industry Structure - Puning has established a complete textile and apparel industry chain, with over 7,000 related enterprises, including 246 large-scale companies, highlighting the robustness of its industrial ecosystem [2] - The Puning Textile and Dyeing Environmental Comprehensive Treatment Center is recognized as the first provincial characteristic industrial park in Jieyang, aiming to strengthen the industry chain through the introduction of high-end projects [2] - In the first nine months of this year, the total output value of Puning's textile and apparel industry reached 108.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% growth, solidifying its position as the primary pillar of the local industrial system [2] Future Development Plans - Puning plans to develop a high-standard "14th Five-Year" plan for the textile and apparel industry, outlining future directions, content, and goals for the next five years [3] - The city aims to enhance the recognition of Puning's textile and apparel brands and promote brand creation initiatives [3] - Collaboration with renowned universities, such as Donghua University in Shanghai, will be pursued to support talent training and research outcomes in the textile and apparel sector [3] - The city will accelerate the development of the "cross-border e-commerce + industrial belt" ecosystem, fostering more cross-border e-commerce enterprises to expand the reach of Puning products globally [3]

Core Insights - The Tai Xing Livestock and Veterinary Center is focusing on enhancing the new quality productivity of the livestock industry through professional technical support and efficient service guarantees, aiming to boost both scale and efficiency in the industry, thereby injecting strong momentum into rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Industry Development Initiatives - The center has selected 52 key personnel to form 9 technology service teams, providing "one-on-one" services to 74 large and medium-sized breeding and slaughter enterprises in the city, addressing critical areas such as feed formulation, environmental control, and breeding [1] - A total of 707.8 million yuan has been integrated to support the development of the livestock industry, with policies like pig subsidy, smart farm construction, and disease prevention showing effective results [2] - The black pig industry has seen growth, with 26 pig farms enhancing their production capacity through partnerships with large enterprises, such as the Suzi Black Pig completing three generations of genetic improvement [2] Group 2: Disease Prevention and Sustainability - The center emphasizes a "prevention first, control combined" approach, achieving a 98% compliance rate for livestock antibodies and a more than 30% year-on-year decrease in pig mortality [2] - The resource utilization rate of livestock manure is projected to reach 98.53% by 2024, with enterprises like Hongtai Livestock Breeding Center benefiting from financial subsidies for manure facility upgrades [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The center plans to strengthen party leadership, refine service measures, and focus on the intelligent and green transformation of the industry, aiming to enhance the technical service and collaborative support systems for high-quality development in the livestock sector [3]