南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 美国劳动力市场下行压力持续。据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月 16日公布的数据显示，今年11月美国失业率升至4.6%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。 此外，11月新增就业岗位6.4万个，而10月净减少10.5万个岗位，为2020年12月以来最大降幅，其中联邦 政府就业减少16.2万个岗位，为2010年6月以来最大。数据公布后，美国利率期货市场略微上调了美联 储在2026年1月政策会议上降息的概率。 需要注意的是，美联储主席鲍威尔上周在议息会议后的新闻发布会上警告称，美联储需谨慎评估就业数 据，通胀和劳动力市场部分指标的数据收集方式存在技术性问题，可能导致数据失真——不仅波动性更 大，更存在扭曲现象。他认为月度就业人数增长可能平均被高估了6万人，实际就业增长更接近每月减 少2万人。 美国劳工部在统计就业时，必须估算新公司成立带来的新增岗位，以及公司倒闭造成的岗位消失。但这 部分数据无法实时准确统计，只能依靠模型推算，而在当前经济环境下，这种模型很可能把真实的就业 情况算得过于乐观。 在一系列数据出炉后，美联储货币政策迷雾仍未消散，2026年1月降息还需要更疲软的数据，一切 ...

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[9] - October's employment figures were revised down significantly, showing a decrease of 105,000, primarily due to a one-time impact from government layoffs related to Trump's resignation plan[9] - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment is now at 22,000, indicating a continued trend of slowing job growth[14] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the expected 4.5%[17] - The increase in the unemployment rate is largely attributed to a rise in the labor force participation rate, which increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[17] - The U6 unemployment rate rose significantly from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating increased pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - The recent employment data is not expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts, as both job growth and unemployment rates showed mixed signals[20] - The market's reaction to the employment data has been muted, with a slight weakening of the dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields[20] - Future expectations for rate cuts may be influenced by continued rises in unemployment and dovish signals from the new Federal Reserve chair[24] Risks - Potential political pressure from Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[25] - There is a risk of non-linear deterioration in the unemployment rate, which could complicate economic forecasts[25]

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected increase of 50,000 and recovering from a loss of 105,000 jobs in October[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%[15] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.6%[15] Economic Insights - The rise in unemployment is attributed to a "technical" disruption from the government shutdown, which temporarily inflated the unemployment figures due to forced leave of federal employees[2] - Private sector employment remains resilient, with the goods-producing sector adding 19,000 jobs, the highest since May 2025[2] - Retail data for October showed stability, with core retail sales growth exceeding expectations, indicating that consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is stabilizing[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite the unexpected rise in unemployment, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate cuts in the short term[5] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with probabilities of 44.1% in April and 34.5% in July, while the probability of pausing rate cuts in January 2026 stands at 73.4%[24] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5% in November, up from 62.4% in September, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among younger demographics[4] - The number of unemployed individuals rose by 228,000 in November, reflecting the impact of the government shutdown on temporary unemployment[4] Wage Growth and Inflation - Wage growth showed signs of slowing, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October[42] - Year-on-year wage growth also decreased to 3.5%, compared to 3.7% in October, suggesting reduced inflationary pressures[42]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the U.S. non-farm employment decreased overall in October and November, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.4% in September to 4.6% in November, suggesting a challenging short-term outlook for demand and employment stability [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, indicating a mixed employment landscape [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, surpassing market expectations, and the labor force participation rate rose to 62.5% [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Behind Unemployment Rate Increase - The rise in the unemployment rate is attributed to temporary layoffs and improvements in labor supply, with the government’s "deferred resignation" plan impacting job numbers [3]. - The credibility of the unemployment data is questioned, as the threshold for triggering the "Sam Rule" is 4.7%, and the household survey response rate was only 64%, below normal levels [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Federal Reserve Actions - The short-term outlook suggests that the unemployment rate may remain elevated, with demand being a significant constraint, although the job market may gradually rebalance by 2026 [4]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is uncertain and will depend on December's economic data, as the current unemployment data may be distorted [4].

【大河财立方消息】12月16日晚间消息，美国11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，预估为增加5万人。美国 11月失业率为4.6%，预估为4.5%。 美国11月就业人数的增长依然疲软，失业率上升，表明在10月表现异常疲弱之后，劳动力市场的降温态 势持续。11月非农就业人数增加6.4万人，10月减少了10.5万人。11月失业率升至4.6%，高于9月的 4.4%，创2021年以来的新高。由于美国政府停摆导致无法追溯收集数据，劳工统计局未能公布10月失 业率。 责编:陈玉尧 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 同时，美股期货小幅拉涨，道琼斯指数期货涨0.10%，标普500指数期货涨0.09%，纳斯达克100指数期 货涨0.04%。 就业数据公布后，美国联邦基金利率期货市场对美联储明年1月降息的预期概率小幅升至31%，数据公 布前仅为22%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.34 trillion in October, marking an increase of $4.685 billion from the previous value, remaining above $3.3 trillion for three consecutive months and above $3.2 trillion for 24 months, the highest level since December 2015 [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves Overview - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for international payments and are held by central banks and government institutions, enhancing the ability to repay short-term foreign debts and maintain economic security [1] - The sources of China's foreign exchange reserves include trade surplus, foreign direct investment (FDI), and capital flows from international investors purchasing Chinese financial assets [2] Group 2: Trade Surplus and FDI - China's trade surplus is expected to continue expanding, driven by the relative strength of global and domestic economies, with projections indicating a record high by 2026 [3] - FDI is influenced by the profitability of industrial enterprises in China, with historical trends showing that FDI growth aligns with the performance of industrial profits [3] Group 3: Capital Flows and PPI - The growth of industrial profits positively impacts the A-share market, attracting overseas financial capital, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown signs of recovery, which is expected to support industrial profit growth and further attract capital inflows [3] Group 4: Valuation and Relative Value Changes - As of Q2 2025, the composition of global foreign exchange reserves shows that the U.S. dollar accounts for 56.33%, with China's reserves primarily in U.S. dollar assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is anticipated to decline, which would increase the value of U.S. bonds and positively impact China's foreign exchange reserves [5] Group 5: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index is expected to decline in 2026, which would raise the dollar value of non-dollar assets and positively influence China's trade surplus and capital inflows [6][7] - The relationship between the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that a decline in yields will likely lead to a decrease in the dollar index, further supporting China's foreign exchange reserves [7] Group 6: Future Projections and Implications - By 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves are projected to steadily increase from the current $3.3 trillion, supported by both absolute scale and relative value changes [8] - This increase will enhance China's ability to repay short-term foreign debts and stabilize the renminbi exchange rate, contributing to financial stability in the A-share market [8]

Core Viewpoint - Danske Bank analysts indicate that the rise in the US unemployment rate is not sufficient to provide a strong signal for the Federal Reserve to clearly lower interest rates, and they still expect the Fed to remain on hold in December [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - The US unemployment rate has increased, but this change is not seen as a decisive factor for the Federal Reserve to implement interest rate cuts [1] - **Federal Reserve Outlook** - Analysts from Danske Bank maintain the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not make any changes to interest rates in December [1]

Core Insights - In September 2025, both the new non-farm employment figures and the unemployment rate in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating a divergence between these two key indicators [1] - The unemployment rate, which rose to 4.44% in September, is considered a more reliable data point compared to the potentially revised new employment figures, making it crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts in December [1] - The unemployment rate has increased for three consecutive months, suggesting that the Fed may struggle to justify a lower unemployment rate in October and November, which could exceed 4.5% [1] - The September non-farm report is not the final employment data before the December meeting, and ongoing weakness in the job market is expected to be reflected in subsequent economic data [1] - Among the 12 voting members for the December meeting, doves still hold a majority, leading to the expectation that a rate cut of 25 basis points may be a close call [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that 119,000 jobs were added in September, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% [1] - The previous two months' employment data were revised downwards, with July's job additions adjusted from 79,000 to 72,000 and August's from 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000, totaling a reduction of 33,000 jobs for July and August [1] - Employment in healthcare, dining, and social assistance sectors continued to rise, while transportation and warehousing, along with federal government jobs, saw declines [1] Group 2 - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in September was $36.67, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [1] - Due to the federal government shutdown, data collection was interrupted, leading to the absence of the October non-farm employment data, which will be reported alongside November's data on December 16 [1] - Economic indicators suggest that while the U.S. economy appears stable, there are increasing signs of pressure, including a slowdown in hiring, reduced consumer spending, and rising inflation [2]

Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since June 2022, down from 53.6 in October, and below the forecast of 53.2 [1][2] - Concerns about the prolonged government shutdown are affecting households across different political affiliations, leading to fears about its negative impact on the economy [1] - Millions of low-income families have seen welfare benefits, including food stamps, cut due to the government shutdown, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers are either furloughed or working without pay [1] Labor Market Concerns - The proportion of American households expecting an increase in unemployment over the next year rose from 52% in October to 62%, the highest level since 1980 [2] - A survey by the New York Federal Reserve indicated that respondents expect unemployment to rise in the coming year and believe it will be difficult to find a job if they become unemployed [2]