1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: The overall supply and demand of crude oil are stable. There are no definite signs of a recession in the US. Crude oil is undervalued and there is room for valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and the progress of US - Iran negotiations. Oil prices should be viewed with a topping - out strategy, and attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent [4][73]. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" on the economy will gradually materialize. It is necessary to verify whether a US recession occurs based on actual economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices still face significant pressure in the medium - to - long term. Oil prices are expected to be volatile at the end of April and beginning of May [4][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In early April, due to the US imposing tariffs on China and OPEC +'s unexpected decision to increase production in May, oil prices tumbled. Brent's main contract fell below $60 per barrel. As the macro - sentiment eased, oil prices rebounded. By the end of the month, oil prices first rose and then fell due to tariff policy fluctuations and internal disagreements within OPEC +, with Brent's main contract (July) falling back to around $65 per barrel [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Short - term: The overall supply and demand are stable, the US shows no definite signs of recession, and there is room for crude oil valuation repair. The main drivers are Sino - US tariff games, US - Iran negotiation progress, and OPEC production policies. - Medium - term: It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data. OPEC may continue to "push down prices" on the supply side, and oil prices face pressure. At the end of April and beginning of May, oil prices are expected to be volatile [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. The cracking spread of domestic gasoline is stable, while that of diesel is weak. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In April, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply due to macro and geopolitical factors. At the beginning of the month, global trade wars caused a sharp decline in crude oil and asphalt prices. In the middle of the month, prices rebounded due to sanctions on Iran and OPEC +'s compensation plans. In the late month, prices fluctuated due to trade wars and OPEC + internal disagreements. The discount of diluted asphalt remained at - $5.5 per barrel, and the basis and valuations increased [8]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - OPEC: In March, OPEC 12 countries' production decreased by 78,000 barrels per day. OPEC + (excluding exempted countries) slightly exceeded the production target. In early April, OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. In mid - April, OPEC + submitted a compensation plan. If implemented, supply pressure will be concentrated after the fourth quarter [13]. - US: Shale oil production costs are rising, and the growth rate of production has been revised down. In the third week of April, production was flat at 13.458 million barrels per day [16][17]. - Russia: In April, oil exports were stable. Falling oil prices led to a decline in export revenue but also increased the motivation to increase production. Future OPEC + policies need to be monitored [24][27]. - Iran: US sanctions have led to a decrease in exports and an increase in floating storage. US - Iran negotiations are ongoing, and the outcome is uncertain [29]. - Venezuela: US sanctions will lead to a decline in production and exports, but exports to China are expected to increase. IEA predicts a quarterly decline in production [32]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - US: Oil product consumption is stable. Gasoline demand recovered after the Easter holiday, diesel demand stabilized in April, and jet fuel demand reached a five - year high [35]. - China: Since April, the operation rate of state - owned refineries has declined, while that of independent refineries has increased. The overall crude oil processing volume is at the average level of the past three years [39][40]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - Inventory: Global crude oil inventory decreased in December 2024 and January 2025, then increased in February and March. In early April, it accelerated the increase and approached the five - year average. In late April, China's inventory decreased, driving down the global total [57]. - Profit: Overseas refining margins were stable, while domestic refining margins were first pushed up by falling oil prices and then pressured during the rebound [59]. - Balance: IEA predicts that in 2025, supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, demand growth will be 730,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 700,000 barrels per day. In 2026, supply will increase by 960,000 barrels per day, demand growth will be 690,000 barrels per day, and inventory will accumulate by 970,000 barrels per day [61]. - Cost: In a moderately oversupplied situation, the market will test the marginal production cost line. Key areas to watch are Latin American deep - water oilfields and US shale oil (Bakken Basin) [66]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.3.1 Future Outlook - Short - term: Supply and demand are stable, there is room for valuation repair, and the main drivers are Sino - US tariff games and US - Iran negotiation progress. Attention should be paid to the pressure around $68 per barrel for Brent. - Medium - term: The impact of the "tariff war" will gradually appear. It is necessary to verify the US recession based on economic data, and oil prices face pressure [73]. 3.3.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuations, bearish in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [74].

每经编辑 肖芮冬 4月23日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.67%，创业板指涨1.07%。全市场成交额12625亿元，较上一交易日放量1413亿元。黄 金股今日深度调整，午后跌幅进一步扩大。 黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘下跌7.09%、黄金基金ETF（518800）收跌5.93% 【下跌原因分析】避险情绪缓和，美元指数与美股反弹，金价回调。 今年以来，受美国关税政策的不确定性、经济衰退预期升温等因素影响，美元信用受损、市场避险情绪高涨，投资者大幅抛售美元资产，形成美股、美债、 美元同步下跌的"股债汇三杀"局面。黄金价格趋势较强、上涨逻辑较为清晰扎实，金价持续攀升、屡创新高。 今日受特朗普关税政策有望缓和的消息影响，市场避险情绪回落，美股、美元反弹，美股三大指数集体收涨；黄金价格回调，COMEX黄金自高点回撤 5.91%，SHFE黄金自高点回撤6.37%。 消息面上看，一方面，美国关税政策预期转好。另一方面，美元信用危机短暂缓和。特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，呵护意味明显，减弱了市场对 于美联储独立性以及美元信用的担忧。 黄金的回调，一方面是市场消息使得此前的恐慌情绪有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar index, dropping below 98 for the first time in three years, is primarily driven by investor concerns over US trade policy uncertainty and expectations of a weakening economy [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell approximately 10% year-to-date, with a notable drop below the 99 mark and reaching a low of 98.12 [1]. - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed an unexpected decline, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]. Trade Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies are impacting economic outlook, contributing to fears of a recession and diminishing confidence in the dollar [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty could lead to a further decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching 95 if conditions do not improve [5]. Market Reactions - Non-US currencies have shown strength against the dollar, with the Japanese yen surpassing 141 and the euro breaking the 1.15 mark [4]. - The market is reacting to political risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly following Trump's threats to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2]. Future Considerations - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to devalue the dollar and restructure US debt, poses risks to the stability of US financial markets [6][7]. - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of the agreement, citing challenges in international cooperation and the potential negative impact on US Treasury stability [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Trump's suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy for some countries (excluding China) for 90 days reversed market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in the US government's tariff policy [2]. - OPEC+ plans to accelerate production increase in May, which is a major negative factor for the supply - demand balance of the oil market [2]. - Under macro - pressure, the probability of new geopolitical information emerging is high, and attention should be paid to the situation around Iran and Turkey [2]. - The current rapid rebound of oil prices may be anchored to a weak supply - demand balance, and it is less likely for US oil to return to $70 per barrel. The technical analysis shows a clear short - term bearish trend [2]. 3. Content Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On April 9th, Sc was at 457.60 yuan/barrel, down 21.00 yuan (-4.39%) from the previous day and 98.50 yuan (-17.71%) from the previous week; WTI was at $62.71/barrel, up $4.48 (7.69%) from the previous day and down $8.43 (-11.85%) from the previous week; Brent was at $65.72/barrel, up $4.10 (6.65%) from the previous day and down $8.79 (-11.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at $0.79/barrel, down $7.42 (-90.41%) from the previous day and $5.55 (-87.58%) from the previous week; Sc - Brent was at -$2.22/barrel, down $7.04 (-146.14%) from the previous day and $5.19 (-174.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Sc Month - spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was at 0.50 yuan/barrel, up 0.60 yuan (600.00%) from the previous day and down 2.40 yuan (-82.76%) from the previous week; Sc_C1 - C6 was at 3.10 yuan/barrel, up 0.20 yuan (6.90%) from the previous day and down 17.40 yuan (-84.88%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at $66.54/barrel, up $0.29 (0.44%) from the previous day and down $10.90 (-14.08%) from the previous week; Brent DTD was at $66.18/barrel, down $0.49 (-0.73%) from the previous day and down $11.22 (-14.50%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spreads**: Diesel (East China)/Sc was 14.894708, up 0.51 (3.54%) from the previous day and 2.22 (17.52%) from the previous week; Gasoline (East China)/Sc was 17.691314, up 0.64 (3.75%) from the previous day and 2.72 (18.14%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2. Inventory Data - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 377.70 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and down 163.20 million barrels (-30.17%) from the previous week; Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 396.71 million barrels, with a 0.28 million - barrel increase (0.07%) [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Commercial crude oil was 442.35 million barrels, with a 2.55 million - barrel increase (0.58%); Cushing crude oil was 25.76 million barrels, with a 0.68 million - barrel increase (2.72%); gasoline was 235.98 million barrels, with a 1.60 million - barrel decrease (-0.67%); distillates were 111.08 million barrels, with a 3.54 million - barrel decrease (-3.09%) [2]. 3.3. CFTC Position Data - Non - commercial net positions were 16.77 million contracts, with a 1.29 million - contract decrease (-7.13%); commercial net positions were - 17.67 million contracts, with a 1.34 million - contract increase (-7.06%); non - report net positions were 0.90 million contracts, with a 0.06 million - contract decrease (-5.79%) [2]. 3.4. Market News - From April 4th to the week of April 4th, EIA US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.553 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 0.681 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.60 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3.544 million barrels [3]. - Iraq set the price of Basra Heavy crude oil for Asia in May at a discount of $2.90 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average price, and the price of Basra Medium crude oil at a premium of $0.25 per barrel [3]. - Trump suspended the comprehensive reciprocal tariff policy for 90 days for trade negotiations but retained a 10% benchmark tariff on all goods entering the US and continued to impose tariffs on specific industries [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 76.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 23.9% [4]. - JPMorgan predicts that the next Fed rate cut will be in September [5]. - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months but revised it to 45% after Trump's suspension announcement [5]. - EU member states voted to impose a 25% tariff on US imports in retaliation for the US steel and aluminum tariffs [5]. - China's State Council Tariff Commission raised the tariff rate on US imports from 34% to 84% [6]. - US trade tariffs may have a greater impact on the eurozone economy than the ECB initially estimated, and may drag down inflation [6]. 3.5. Operation Suggestions - The short - term market sentiment has reversed, but the medium - term strategy is to sell high. Aggressive investors can consider short - term short positions or buying put options [2].