Core Insights - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Panetta, highlights that macroeconomic risks stem from conflicting signals in U.S. trade policies and the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict [1] Group 1 - The U.S. trade policy is presenting contradictory signals that could impact global economic stability [1] - The recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran is contributing to macroeconomic risks [1]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]

美国贸易政策"悬而未决"，橡胶市场交易者谨慎，产区雷暴、大雨来袭，橡胶价格能否得到支撑？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Economists highlight ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs, suggesting that the end of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary easing cycle cannot be confidently asserted at this time [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The June interest rate cut has largely been priced in by the market, but the clarity of this decision would have been different without U.S. trade policies [1] - The Eurozone's inflation rate remains low, yet price pressures have not completely dissipated, as evidenced by a significant rise in core inflation in April [1] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy - Under normal circumstances, the ECB's governing council would likely pause monetary easing policies, but further rate cuts later this year would signal that policymakers believe the economy requires additional stimulus to sustain itself [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: June 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper: US trade policy is heating up, and copper prices may run stronger. Refer to the March market. After experiencing the March market, market sensitivity may decrease. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the resistance at the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan level [3]. - Aluminum: US trade policy affects global aluminum demand in the medium - long term but has little short - term impact. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the long - short game at the 20,000 yuan level [4]. Summary by Section 1. Macroeconomic Factors - On May 30, Trump announced on "Truth Social" that starting from June 4, the import tariffs on steel and aluminum would be raised from 25% to 50%. This may push up the price of COMEX copper, driving up LME copper and SHFE copper. For aluminum, it mainly affects global demand in the medium - long term due to China's strong pricing power [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of copper futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and positions, etc. [10][11][15] 2.2 Declining Copper Ore Processing Fees - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been decreasing, indicating tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. Domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to the same period last year, suggesting expected tightness in the domestic ore end and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [24]. 2.3 Slowing De - stocking of Electrolytic Copper - Figures show the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), indicating a slowdown in de - stocking [29]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The figure shows the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries [31]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Price and Volume Trends - Multiple figures show the trends of aluminum futures prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, and spreads, etc. [33][35][38] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Figures show the inventory of bauxite at ports and the price of alumina [45][50]. 3.3 Seasonal De - stocking of Electrolytic Aluminum - Figures show the trends of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [49]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - Figures show the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods [51][55][56]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: In late May, copper prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations and slower de - stocking pressured prices. The increase in US trade policy may push up copper prices, but market sensitivity may be lower. Copper prices are expected to run with a slight upward bias, with attention on the 79,000 - 80,000 yuan resistance [58]. - Aluminum: In late May, aluminum prices fluctuated. Low inventory supported prices, while reduced post - peak consumption expectations weakened the upward drive. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs may lead to a decline in global aluminum consumption expectations in the medium - long term, but the short - term impact on the domestic market is limited. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on the 20,000 yuan long - short game [58].

澳洲联储会议纪要：美国贸易政策对全球前景构成重大不利影响。 ...

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

Core Viewpoint - Economists caution against being misled by the strong overall data in Canada's Q1 GDP report, highlighting the underlying economic fragility despite a 2.2% annualized growth rate driven by businesses increasing capacity ahead of tariffs [1] Economic Performance - Canada's Q1 GDP annualized growth rate reached 2.2%, influenced by businesses ramping up production before tariffs took effect [1] - Domestic final demand contracted by 0.1% in Q1, indicating a more accurate reflection of the economy's health [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The acceleration of core inflation should prompt the Bank of Canada officials to consider a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate in the upcoming meeting [1] - The GDP data suggests that the economy was already stagnating before the full impact of tariffs became evident [1]

卡塔尔中央银行行长班达尔·阿勒萨尼20日在首都多哈表示，美国贸易政策和关税措施对卡塔尔经济的 间接影响令人担忧。 ...