Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept the interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait-and-see approach due to global uncertainties from U.S. tariff plans [1][3] - Economists debated the potential for further easing, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.35% before a prolonged pause [1][3] - Following the RBA's decision, the Australian dollar surged, and the three-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 3.42% [1] Group 2 - The RBA stated it could wait for more information to confirm inflation is on a sustainable path to 2.5%, and that monetary policy is positioned to respond decisively to international dynamics affecting the economy [3] - Since the RBA's last meeting, monthly inflation in Australia has slowed to near the bottom of the 2-3% range, with weak household spending and prevailing pessimism in consumer confidence surveys [3] - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies, particularly President Trump's tariff threats, has heightened the RBA's cautious stance [3][4] Group 3 - Australia's exposure to U.S. tariffs is relatively low at 10%, but the country has been affected by industry-specific tariffs on steel and aluminum [4] - According to the Australian Productivity Commission, proposed U.S. tariff adjustments could have a small positive impact on the local economy, potentially increasing actual GDP by 0.37% [4] - However, growing economic uncertainty is expected to slow global economic activity, household consumption, and business investment, particularly affecting irreversible investment decisions by businesses [4]

Core Insights - Copper prices continue to decline due to U.S. trade policies and a surge in copper supply from Chile [1] Group 1 - The ongoing drop in copper prices is influenced by U.S. trade policies [1] - Increased copper supply from Chile is contributing to the downward pressure on prices [1] - The duration of the copper price decline remains uncertain [1]

Policy Insights - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was passed by the U.S. Senate and House on July 1 and 3, respectively, expected to raise long-term GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points[5] - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. deficit by $3 trillion over the next 10 years (2025-2034) according to dynamic analysis by the Tax Foundation[5] - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam while Vietnam will exempt all U.S. goods from tariffs[5] Economic Data - U.S. June ADP employment change fell to -33,000, significantly below the expected 98,000, marking the worst performance since March 2023[5] - Non-farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 106,000, with April and May figures revised up by 16,000[5] - The unemployment rate in June dropped to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3%[5] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices saw gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 2.3%, and Nasdaq up 1.6%[15] - European stocks faced declines, with the STOXX 600 down 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 down 0.9%[15] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 15 basis points to 3.88% and the 10-year yield up 6 basis points to 4.35%[18] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices rose by 1.8% to $3,331.9 per ounce, while Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.8% and 1.5%, respectively[20] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, down 0.28% for the week, with the euro gaining 0.5% against the dollar[24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report indicates a surprising decline in U.S. private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, U.S. private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs, the first decline in over two years, with the previous month's increase revised down to only 29,000 [3][4]. - The service sector saw a significant job loss of 66,000 positions, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education [6][9]. - Manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors experienced job growth, adding a total of 32,000 positions, which partially offset the overall decline [9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Employers are increasingly cautious due to the impact of trade policies and are focused on aligning workforce numbers with the slowing economic activity [6]. - The average employment growth over the past three months has slowed to 18,700 jobs in May, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic [9]. - The proportion of consumers who believe job opportunities are plentiful has dropped to the lowest level in over four years [9]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Future Expectations - Wage growth is showing signs of slowing, with salaries for job switchers increasing by 6.8% year-over-year, while those remaining in their positions saw a 4.4% increase [9]. - The upcoming government non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [11].

Core Viewpoint - Currently, no companies have explicitly expressed that U.S. trade policies are impacting their capital expenditure plans [1] Group 1 - Japanese central bank officials indicate a lack of direct feedback from businesses regarding the influence of U.S. trade policies on their investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - France's June CPI rose for the first time this year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, surpassing expectations [1] - Service inflation accelerated to 2.4%, while food inflation slightly increased to 1.4%, and energy prices saw a narrower decline of 6.9% [1] - The rise in inflation is attributed to geopolitical tensions affecting prices, particularly in the Middle East, impacting major economies in the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) completed its eighth rate cut since June last year, as inflation had been cooling earlier in the year [2] - ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current trajectory of consumer prices, which have decreased from record highs to just below the 2% target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation and U.S. trade policies adds complexity to the economic outlook, prompting the ECB to maintain flexibility in its monetary policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unable to commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and the situation in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Economic Uncertainty - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB, highlighted that the most significant uncertainty for future monetary policy is the unpredictable U.S. trade policies [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs, implemented under Trump's administration, remains unclear, particularly whether they will lead to inflation or deflation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Middle East is also a critical factor contributing to the uncertainty surrounding the ECB's monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) cannot commit to a specific interest rate path due to high uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policies and Middle Eastern developments [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Uncertainty** - The ECB's future monetary policy process is significantly influenced by unpredictable U.S. trade policies, which are seen as a major source of uncertainty [1] - The impact of President Trump's tariff measures on inflation remains unclear, with potential outcomes that could either increase or suppress inflation [1] - **Flexibility and Data Dependence** - The ECB management committee members emphasize the importance of maintaining flexibility and being data-dependent in their decision-making process [1]

欧洲央行管委Legal：中东局势和美国贸易政策造成不确定性。 ...

Core Insights - The European Central Bank's governing council member, Panetta, highlights that macroeconomic risks stem from conflicting signals in U.S. trade policies and the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict [1] Group 1 - The U.S. trade policy is presenting contradictory signals that could impact global economic stability [1] - The recent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran is contributing to macroeconomic risks [1]