Group 1 - UBS downgraded the rating of Giant Bio (02367) from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to increased uncertainty in short-term revenue and profit outlook [1] - The profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 was cut by 25% to 41%, with revenue projections reduced by 20% to 36% during the same period [1] - The target price was significantly lowered from HKD 79.5 to HKD 39.5 [1] Group 2 - The report indicates intensified market competition, with the emergence of other skincare brands or products that offer more attractive pricing while also focusing on collagen restructuring [1] - Despite rapid product innovation, there is uncertainty regarding the success of new products in the coming year [1] - Maintaining high profitability is expected to be challenging in the context of increased competition and weakened marketing efficiency, with a projected erosion of 2 to 3 percentage points in net profit margin due to reduced marketing efficiency and operational deleveraging [1]

Industry Overview - Collagen masks are mainstream skincare products focused on anti-aging and repair, utilizing collagen as the core ingredient along with auxiliary components to achieve hydration and skin barrier repair [1][2] - The Chinese mask industry is expected to reach a market size of 72.986 billion yuan in 2024, entering a period of adjustment and transformation, facing growth slowdown and intensified competition [1][6] - The collagen market is experiencing explosive growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.9% from 2020 to 2023, and retail scale expected to exceed 269.5 billion yuan by 2030 [1][7] Market Dynamics - The market structure in China shows that sheet masks remain dominant, while cream masks are rapidly growing, focusing on hydration and repair needs [1][7] - The competitive landscape features local leaders dominating, niche players breaking through, and international brands penetrating the market, with a clear price gradient and significant differentiation between high, medium, and low-end markets [1][8] Industry Chain - The upstream of the collagen mask industry primarily uses animal-derived collagen, while recombinant collagen is rapidly developing due to its high purity and compatibility with mask formulations [6][10] - The manufacturing process involves various technologies to convert raw materials into different forms and functions of mask products, with sales channels dominated by online e-commerce and deepening offline professional channels [6][10] Current Development - The Chinese mask industry is transitioning into a phase of deep integration after rapid growth, with three emerging drivers leading market changes: consumption upgrades, male skincare market expansion, and personalized demand fostering innovative scenarios [6][7] - The market size is projected to steadily grow to 76.79 billion yuan by 2025 and potentially exceed 146.42 billion yuan by 2030, indicating robust long-term growth prospects [6][7] Key Players - Major companies in the collagen mask industry include Juzi Biotechnology, Huaxi Biotechnology, and Marubi Biotechnology, leveraging differentiated technologies and channel advantages to lead the market [2][10] - The industry is characterized by a multi-faceted competitive ecosystem, with local leaders, niche players, and international brands all contributing to the market dynamics [10] Future Trends - The industry is expected to advance towards high-end technology, refined products, and standardized ecosystems, with a focus on cross-disciplinary technology integration and precise formulations [10][12] - Regulatory tightening is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of smaller brands, increasing market concentration, while leading companies will strengthen their market positions through R&D innovation and global expansion [10][14]

12月4日，玻尿酸龙头华熙生物（688363.SH）举行2025年第三季度业绩说明会期间，公司股价震荡下跌，盘中一度跌至45.25元/ 股(后复权47.62元/股)，较发行价47.79元/股破发。 行业竞争格局的变化更让华熙生物承压。今年5月，作为玻料酸龙头的华熙生物与巨子生物就"透明质酸是否过时"展开激烈争 论，华熙生物在官方公众号发文称，重组胶原蛋白概念是资本构建的题材"幻象"，强调透明质酸在衰老干预中的关键地位。但 市场趋势似乎偏向后者，弗若斯特沙利文数据预测，2026年基于胶原蛋白的皮肤护理市场份额将超过透明质酸，年复合增长率 达52.6%，2027年国内胶原蛋白整体市场规模将达1738亿元。 面对多重压力，华熙生物表示，公司已推出组织架构变革，管理团队已重回业务一线。同时，公司也在战略性前沿领域持续投 入，基于合成生物技术平台研发的PDRN、麦角硫因等新一代生物活性物质，有望为公司2026年原料业务业绩带来增量空间。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 作为2019年11月登陆科创板的"玻尿酸第一股"，华熙生物曾创下辉煌战绩。上市后股价最高飙涨至308.77元/股 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the net profit forecast for Giant Bio (02367) for 2025-2026 by 25% and 33% to 1.91 billion and 2.14 billion yuan respectively, citing short-term pressure on cosmetics sales. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20x for 2025 and 18x for 2026. The target price has been reduced by 20% to 56 HKD, which implies a potential upside of 41% based on the adjusted earnings forecast [1]. Company Current Situation - On December 2, the company announced a plan to repurchase up to 104 million shares, accounting for 10% of the issued shares, and is communicating its strategic plans for 2026 regarding product matrix expansion, brand operation, and channel development. This repurchase reflects management's confidence, and the company’s R&D capabilities, brand recognition, and team cohesion remain strong, suggesting potential operational improvements through optimized product structure and timely operational adjustments [2][3]. Product and Channel Expansion Plans - The company has a rich reserve of new products for 2026, with plans to launch four key new products in the collagen repair series and expand channel coverage for existing brands. The company aims to strengthen its online presence and expand offline channels, including clinics and self-operated stores, with successful initial steps in Southeast Asia. The contribution from second-tier products is expected to increase, driving healthy growth in the cosmetics business [4]. Medical Aesthetics Growth - The medical aesthetics team is expanding, with strong experience in developing star products and commercial preparations progressing smoothly. The company’s R&D strength, brand recognition, and team cohesion are expected to support long-term growth, especially as the cosmetics market recovers and the medical aesthetics segment contributes additional growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the profit forecast for Giant Bio (02367) for 2025-2026 by 25% and 33% to 1.91 billion and 2.14 billion yuan respectively, reflecting short-term pressure on cosmetics sales. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E of 20x for 2025 and 18x for 2026. The target price has been reduced by 20% to 56 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 41% based on the adjusted profit forecast [1]. Company Current Situation - On December 2, the company announced a plan to repurchase up to 104 million shares, accounting for 10% of the issued shares, and communicated its strategic plans for 2026 regarding product matrix expansion, brand operation, and channel development. This repurchase reflects management's confidence, and the company is expected to improve operations through optimized product structure and timely operational adjustments [2][3]. Share Repurchase Plan - The company plans to use its own funds to repurchase up to 104 million shares, which may be canceled or held as treasury stock. This repurchase plan is seen as a demonstration of management's long-term confidence in the company's growth and is expected to enhance earnings per share and shareholder returns [3]. Product Matrix and Channel Expansion Planning - For 2026, the company has a rich reserve of new products, including four key new products from the core collagen stick marketing and pricing strategy. Additionally, the company plans to upgrade its product lines and expand channel coverage, including online influencer marketing and offline distribution channels. The second-tier products are expected to contribute to healthy growth in the cosmetics business [4]. Medical Aesthetics Second Curve Progress - The company's medical aesthetics team is expanding, with successful commercialization preparations based on previous experience in developing star products. The company maintains strong R&D capabilities, brand recognition, and team cohesion, suggesting a broad growth space as the cosmetics market recovers and the medical aesthetics segment contributes additional revenue [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [5][10]. Core Insights - The company plans to repurchase up to approximately 104 million shares, which is about 9.7% of its total shares, signaling management's confidence in the company's future and belief that the stock is undervalued [6][7]. - The company has received its first Class III medical device certification for its recombinant type I α1 collagen product, marking its entry into the injectable aesthetic medicine market, which is expected to drive future growth [7]. - Despite recent stock price adjustments due to market conditions and lower-than-expected sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, the report suggests that the stock has sufficiently adjusted and is poised for recovery [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 2.43 billion, RMB 2.98 billion, and RMB 3.64 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 17.8%, 22.5%, and 22.2% [9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 2.27, RMB 2.78, and RMB 3.40 for the same years, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 8.1%, 22.5%, and 22.2% [9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to decrease from 15x in 2025 to 10x in 2027, indicating a potential increase in value as the company grows [9]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Fan Daidi, holding 55.13% of the shares, which indicates a strong control over the company [1]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 41.08 billion, with a current share price of HKD 36.58 [1]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a significant decline, with a 24.4% drop over the past month and a 32.07% drop over the past three months [1]. - The stock price has fluctuated between a high of HKD 82.99 and a low of HKD 35.72 over the past year [1]. Product Portfolio - The company's product mix is heavily weighted towards functional skincare products, which account for 78.6% of total sales, while medical dressings contribute 23.3% and health products account for 0.3% [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the stock price of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 3%, reaching a new low of 35.54 HKD, which is a significant decline from its peak in May [1] - The stock price has halved since its high point in May, indicating a severe downturn influenced by public opinion regarding collagen ingredients [1] - As of the report, the stock is down 3.46%, trading at 35.68 HKD with a transaction volume of 199 million HKD [1] Group 2 - According to Qingyan Intelligence, domestic brands secured 5 spots in the top 10 of the Douyin beauty list for this year's Double Eleven, while Giant Bio's brand, Kefu Mei, has fallen out of the top 10 [1] - On the Tmall beauty list for Double Eleven, Kefu Mei ranked 18th, a drop of 5 places compared to last year [1] - Reports indicate that Kefu Mei has consistently fallen out of the top 20 on the Douyin beauty list since June of this year [1] Group 3 - Jianghai Securities suggests that the increasing number of players in the collagen industry warrants attention on Giant Bio's future marketing strategies and sales performance for their products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 3%, reaching a new low of 35.54 HKD, reflecting a significant decline since May due to controversies surrounding collagen protein components [1] Company Summary - The stock price has halved since its peak in May, currently trading at 35.68 HKD with a trading volume of 199 million HKD [1] - The brand's product, Kefu Mei, has fallen out of the top 10 in the Douyin beauty rankings for this year's Double Eleven, and ranked 18th in the Tmall beauty rankings, a drop of 5 places from last year [1] - Kefu Mei has consistently dropped out of the top 20 in Douyin beauty rankings since June [1] Industry Summary - Domestic brands secured 5 out of the top 10 spots in the Douyin beauty rankings for this year's Double Eleven, indicating increased competition in the collagen protein market [1] - Jianghai Securities suggests monitoring Giant Bio's future marketing strategies and sales performance in response to the growing number of players in the collagen protein industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of recombinant collagen as a significant anti-aging ingredient developed in China, marking a shift in the beauty industry where domestic brands gain authority in core raw materials, moving from a follower to a leader position in the global market [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Marubi Biotech is one of the few companies in China that has achieved full-chain self-research and production of recombinant collagen, positioning itself as a representative of high-end beauty technology in the country [5][6]. - The company has played a crucial role in establishing national industry standards for recombinant collagen, transitioning from an industry participant to a standard setter, which signifies its technical authority [6][7]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Marubi has developed a comprehensive research and production chain in the functional protein field, including gene editing, fermentation expression, structural verification, separation purification, and formula application [7][11]. - The establishment of the "National Recombinant Functional Protein Technology Research Center" under Marubi indicates its capability to not only serve its product development but also provide technical output to the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Product Development and Efficacy - Marubi's products, such as the "Recombinant Double Collagen," have achieved significant breakthroughs, including the first global production of high-activity recombinant human collagen through self-research and the use of translation pause technology [13][14]. - Clinical trials have shown that Marubi's products can effectively reduce wrinkle volume, with a reported 56.83% reduction in under-eye wrinkles and 13.18% in nasolabial folds after seven days of use [17][20]. Group 4: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - Marubi aims to establish a global presence by setting up research centers abroad and forming joint ventures, reflecting a shift from merely exporting products to a more comprehensive output of technology, standards, and brand culture [28][29]. - The company's vision includes creating a beauty standard that transcends cultural boundaries, emphasizing the importance of scientific research and long-term commitment to quality over short-term gains [28][30].

Group 1 - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a recovery in 2025, with the SW Beauty Index rebounding after a decline from 2022 to 2024, achieving a maximum increase of over 15% and becoming a key area in new consumption [3][9][10] - The cosmetics segment is characterized by intense competition among brands, with domestic brands making significant strides in R&D and distribution, while international brands are adopting localized strategies to regain market share [3][20][25] - The medical beauty market is transitioning from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with domestic companies expected to become major competitors by focusing on affordable and specialized products [3][19][24] Group 2 - The e-commerce operation sector is undergoing a transformation, with companies like RuYuchen and Shuiyang Co. leveraging brand incubation and AI to create new growth avenues [3][19] - Key investment recommendations include domestic brands with strong channel and brand matrices such as MaoGePing, ShangMei Co., and PoLaiYa, as well as companies in the medical beauty sector like AiMeiKe and LongZi Co. [3][19][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of brand matrix construction and product innovation in the cosmetics industry, with companies like ShangMei Co. and PoLaiYa leading the way [3][31][40] Group 3 - The skincare and makeup market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with strong brands likely to thrive while weaker ones may struggle [23][24] - The market share of domestic brands is increasing, with a notable decline in the market share of international brands, indicating a significant opportunity for domestic players [25][30] - The report highlights the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and channel dynamics, with a focus on online platforms and promotional strategies to enhance brand visibility [48][52][53]