Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [82]. Core Insights - The adjustment of predetermined interest rates is expected to enhance the value of new business, with a projected decrease in the rate to 2% in the third quarter, which will lower the rigid cost of liabilities and improve product profitability [8][12]. - The expansion of long-term stock investment trials is anticipated to increase the flexibility of the asset side, with insurance companies actively seeking higher-yield risk assets to mitigate the pressure from interest rate spreads [20][27]. - There is a need for further optimization in asset-liability matching, as mismatches in duration can lead to fluctuations in net assets, particularly under the IFRS 17 standards [42][50]. - The valuation of insurance companies is primarily driven by improvements in the asset side, with the current PEV valuation level at 0.70, indicating that market valuations are below the intrinsic value of the companies [59][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Adjustment of Predetermined Interest Rates - The upper limit for the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance is currently set at 2.5%, with a projected decrease to 2% in the upcoming quarter, which is expected to enhance the new business value [8][12]. - The insurance premium income for life insurance is showing signs of recovery, with a cumulative growth of 1.3% as of April 2025, marking a positive shift in the market [12][14]. 2. Expansion of Long-term Stock Investment Trials - The total scale of long-term stock investment trials has reached 222 billion, with several major insurance companies participating [25]. - The demand for high-yield risk assets is increasing as insurance companies seek to cover the rigid costs associated with liabilities [27][33]. 3. Need for Optimization in Asset-Liability Matching - The mismatch in asset and liability durations is causing volatility in net assets, necessitating better alignment to mitigate risks associated with interest rate changes [42][50]. - The average net investment yield for listed insurance companies remains around 4%, which poses challenges for long-term asset yield stabilization [50][56]. 4. Valuation Driven by Asset Side Improvements - The contribution of insurance contract services to profits is significant, with new business value expected to enhance overall performance [59][61]. - The current average PB valuation for five A-share insurance companies is 1.6, indicating a moderate valuation level compared to historical data [67][71].

Core Insights - The life insurance premium income has shown signs of recovery in the first four months of 2025, with a total of 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1][3] - April 2025 saw a significant increase in life insurance premiums, reaching 287.9 billion yuan, which is an 11.6% year-on-year increase, indicating a "small spring" for the industry [1][4] Group 1: Premium Growth Factors - The recovery in life insurance premiums is attributed to the continuous revival of individual insurance channels and strong demand for savings-type insurance products due to declining deposit rates [1][4] - The insurance companies have actively adjusted their product structures to meet market demands, with a focus on the launch of dividend and annuity products in April [4][5] Group 2: Future Outlook - The adjustment of preset interest rates is expected to be the biggest variable affecting premium growth in the coming quarters [5][6] - The current low deposit rates provide a relative advantage for insurance products, making them attractive for consumers seeking long-term stable returns [5][6] - It is anticipated that life insurance premiums will maintain steady growth, but the growth rate may be limited due to the downward adjustment of preset interest rates [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance of A-share insurance companies in Q1 2025 was impacted by rising long-term interest rates and market volatility, leading to a decline in total investment returns and a mixed profit performance across the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Performance - A-share insurance companies achieved a total net profit of 841.76 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, which was below expectations of 7.9% [2]. - The contribution to profit from insurance services, investment performance, and other pre-tax profits was 75.5%, 16.7%, and 7.8% respectively [2]. - Total investment returns decreased by 11% year-on-year due to significant negative contributions from fair value changes amid stock and bond market pressures [1][2]. Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Performance - The NBV growth rate for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 ranged from 4.8% to 67.9%, continuing a growth trend [3]. - New business volume increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 246.84 billion yuan, with growth rates for individual companies varying between -19.5% and 130.8% [3]. - Factors affecting performance included adjustments in preset interest rates, product structures, commission rates, and the fluctuating focus on financial products [3]. Group 3: Property Insurance Performance - The premium growth rate for the "old three" major property insurers was between 1.0% and 7.6% in Q1 2025, with the combined ratio (CR3) decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 63.8% [4]. - The combined operating ratio (COR) improved more than expected, with notable reductions for major insurers such as PICC and Ping An [4]. Group 4: Investment Yield and Asset Allocation - The annualized total investment yield for listed insurance companies in Q1 2025 varied, with New China Insurance at 5.7% (up 1.1 percentage points) and China Life at 2.75% (down 0.48 percentage points) [5]. - The proportion of FVOCI (Fair Value Through Other Comprehensive Income) assets increased for most insurers, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amid market conditions [5]. Group 5: Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks including New China Insurance (601336.SH), PICC (601319.SH), China Property Insurance (02328), China Taiping (601601.SH), Ping An (601318.SH), and China Life (601628.SH) as potential investment opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, recommending companies such as New China Life, China Life Insurance, China Property & Casualty, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Reinsurance [4][64]. Core Insights - The insurance sector experienced a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with net profit growth of 1.4% year-on-year, falling short of expectations [4][6]. - The new business value (NBV) showed significant growth, with a range of 4.8% to 67.9% across listed insurers, indicating a continuation of growth trends [4][24]. - The investment performance was under pressure due to rising long-term interest rates and market volatility, leading to a year-on-year decline in total investment income of 11% [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Performance - The net profit of listed insurers reached CNY 841.76 billion in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, which was below the expected 7.9% [6][14]. - Investment income for the sector decreased by 11% year-on-year, totaling CNY 1,477.19 billion, with significant contributions from China Re and China Property & Casualty [14][62]. 2. Liability Side Performance - The NBV growth was robust, with new business premiums increasing by 2.9% year-on-year to CNY 2,468.44 billion, driven by various factors including product structure adjustments and commission changes [4][24]. - The insurance service performance improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% to CNY 802.49 billion, attributed to better claims performance and optimized service costs [4][11]. 3. Asset Side Performance - The yield rates varied among insurers, with New China Life achieving a total investment yield of 5.7% (up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year) [4][62]. - The proportion of FVOCI assets increased for most insurers, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amidst market volatility [4][59]. 4. Investment Analysis - The report anticipates that the impact of rising long-term interest rates on profit performance will ease in Q2 2025, with expectations for marginal improvements in new business growth [4][64]. - The report highlights the potential for further policy support for leading insurers in diversifying asset allocations under the new regulatory framework [4][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The securities industry has seen significant profit growth, with a notable increase in trading volume and net profits for listed brokers in 2024 and Q1 2025 [4][15] - The insurance sector is experiencing a continuous increase in new business value (NBV) and a recovery in life insurance premiums as of March [4][29] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning into a stable phase, with trust assets showing growth but overall profits under pressure [4] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industries - All sub-industries in the non-bank financial sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in the recent three trading days, with declines of 0.73% for securities, 1.06% for multi-financial, and 1.68% for insurance [9][10] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industry Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with April's average daily trading amount reaching 12,361 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase [15] - Listed brokers reported a 7% increase in operating revenue and a 16% increase in net profit for 2024 [20] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue for listed brokers grew by 24% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 80% [25] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector's net profit for Q1 2025 showed a 1.4% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in NBV for major companies [29] - Life insurance premiums showed signs of recovery, with a 0.2% year-on-year increase in original premiums for the first three months of 2025 [4] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry reported a total asset scale of 27 trillion yuan as of Q2 2024, a 24.5% year-on-year increase, although profits are under pressure [4] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 734 million contracts in March, with a 17.28% year-on-year increase [4] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The non-bank financial sector is currently valued at a low average, providing a safety margin [4] - The insurance industry is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a focus on health and pension insurance [4] - Recommended companies include China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China People’s Insurance, and leading securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4][28]

Core Insights - China Life Insurance reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 28.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% [1] - The company's net assets at the end of Q1 2025 were 532.5 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.5% [1] - The new business value (NBV) grew by 4.8% year-on-year, despite a decline in new premium income [2] Financial Performance - The total premium income for Q1 2025 was 354.4 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, while new premium income was 107.4 billion yuan, down 4.5% [1][2] - The annualized net and total investment returns were 2.60% and 2.75%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1][2] - The decrease in insurance service fees by 32.8% year-on-year contributed to the net profit growth, alongside improved underwriting management and rising market interest rates [1] Product and Investment Strategy - The company optimized its product structure, with the proportion of floating income-type regular premium income reaching 51.7% in Q1 2025, which is expected to lower liability costs [2] - Despite market volatility impacting investment returns, the company maintained stable solvency ratios, with core and comprehensive solvency adequacy ratios at 146.1% and 199.3%, respectively [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a strong buy rating, with expectations for continued profit growth driven by a recovering equity market and dividend insurance sales [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 107.4 billion yuan, 108.2 billion yuan, and 110.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.4%, 0.7%, and 2.1% respectively [3] - The projected NBV for the same period is 36.7 billion yuan, 38.9 billion yuan, and 40.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.8%, 6.2%, and 4.9% respectively [3]

证券研究报告·行业月报·保险Ⅱ 保险Ⅱ行业月报 保险行业 3 月月报：寿险保费增速回暖，关 注后续预定利率调整落地情况 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 负债端、资产端均有改善机会，低估值+低持仓，攻守兼备。1）我们认 为市场储蓄需求依然旺盛，同时在监管持续引导和险企主动性转型下， 负债成本有望逐步下降，利差损压力将有所缓解。2）近期十年期国债 收益率稳定在 1.66%左右，我们预计，未来伴随国内经济复苏，长端利 率若继续修复上行，则保险公司新增固收类投资收益率压力将有所缓 解。3）当前公募基金对保险股持仓仍处于低位，估值对负面因素反应 较为充分。2025 年 4 月 25 日保险板块估值 2025E 0.50-0.81 倍 PEV、 0.89-1.96 倍 PB，处于历史低位，行业维持"增持"评级。 ◼ 风险提示：长端利率趋势性下行；股市持续低迷；新单增长不及预期。 2025 年 04 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a dual growth in profit and value, with an increase in the dividend payout ratio [7] - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 126.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [7] - The report indicates a significant improvement in the operating profit of the property and casualty insurance business, while the asset management and technology sectors reported losses [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 913.79 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 1,028.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 85.665 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 126.607 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 47.8% growth [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 4.70 yuan in 2023 to 6.95 yuan in 2024 [1] Business Segment Performance - The life insurance segment's new business value (NBV) increased by 28.8% year-on-year, with individual business new policies growing by 3.9% [7] - The property and casualty insurance segment achieved a turnaround with a profit of 5.46 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.08 billion yuan in 2023 [7] - The asset management segment reported a loss of 11.9 billion yuan, although the loss narrowed by 43% compared to the previous year [7] Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its investment strategy, increasing allocations to bonds and stocks while reducing exposure to funds [7] - The total investment scale reached 5.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [7] - The net investment yield is projected to be 3.8% in 2024, down from 4.2% in 2023, while total investment yield is expected to rise to 4.5% [7] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization corresponds to a 2025 estimated price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.65x, indicating that the stock is still undervalued [7] - The report projects a gradual increase in the company's intrinsic value per share, from 76.34 yuan in 2023 to 78.12 yuan in 2024 [1]