Group 1 - The external environment is a significant variable affecting China's macroeconomic trends, with uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies and their global implications [1] - Domestic new growth drivers are accumulating, becoming the core strength for China's economy to navigate through cycles, while the real estate market has emerged from its low point, though uncertainties remain regarding its recovery timing [1] - A combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies has quickly boosted domestic demand, but the effectiveness of extraordinary measures in countering debt-deflation and balance sheet contraction effects is still under observation [1] Group 2 - The direct impact of external environmental changes has not been as severe as anticipated, with actual market performance differing from many market participants' predictions [2] - China's export resilience to the U.S. has exceeded expectations, with limited decline in export growth despite high tariffs and a high base from the previous year [2] - The intensity of re-export trade has also surpassed expectations, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Latin America, effectively offsetting declines in exports to the U.S. [2] - Exports to countries and regions outside the U.S. and major re-export markets have shown unexpected growth, indicating that domestic exporters are actively seeking new markets [2] - The outcomes of tariff negotiations have also exceeded expectations, contributing positively to the overall trade environment [2]

Group 1 - The initial value of Japan's GDP deflator for the first quarter is 3.3%, exceeding the expected 3.20% and up from the previous value of 2.90% [1]

日本一季度实际GDP平减指数同比初值 3.3%，预期 3.2%，前值 2.9%。 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 事 项 4月，CPI同比下降0.1%，预期下降0.15%，前值下降0.1%；核心CPI同比上涨0.5%，前值上涨0.5%。PPI同比下降2.7%，预期下 降2.8%，前值下降2.5% 。 报告摘要 一、4月CPI的结构性特征 本月CPI略高于我们的预期，或因没考虑到金价上涨的影响 。CPI同比和环比均较我们的预期高0.1个百分点，预期差在核心CPI。 据统计局解读，金饰品价格上涨10.1%，拉动CPI环比约0.06个百分点，据此推算，金饰品在CPI中的权重占比大约0.6%，对本月 核心CPI环比的拉动约0.1个百分点。 本月CPI项目环比上涨或好于季节性的：1） 受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游等出行服 务价格好于季节性。 2） 在供给减少等因素影响，食品价格上涨0.2%，好于季节性。比较明显的是，牛肉价格上涨3.9%，创2019 年10月以来最高（过去两年因供给扩张牛肉价格大幅下跌），在需求淡季下鲜菜和猪肉价格跌幅偏小。 3） 房租环比 ...

金十数据4月30日讯，芝加哥DRW公司的市场策略师说，"当你看到最终销售下降2.5%时，这是不包括 库存数据的GDP，你要知道这是一个非常疲弱的数字。这是自新冠时期以来最疲软的，在新冠之前，你 必须回到2009年，才能找到一个实际最终销售额较弱的季度。所以我认为这可能是债券最初上涨的原 因，但重新考虑一下，他们可能会关注通胀指标，GDP平减指数和个人消费支出核心指数，两者都明显 高于预期。因此，这份报告对债券市场产生了一点推动作用。" 策略师：GDP数据信号好坏参杂 引发债市波动 ...

美国一季度GDP平减指数年化季环比初值 3.7，预期 3.1，前值 2.3。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for a reasonable recovery in prices to support macroeconomic stability, as current GDP growth is not aligned with low price levels, indicating a "quantity-price divergence" [1][4][6] - The article discusses the phenomenon where companies opt for "price for volume" strategies, leading to price declines while maintaining production, which can undermine market confidence [4][5] - Historical lessons from Japan's economic experience in the 1990s highlight the importance of setting price targets to ensure economic health, as mere GDP growth is insufficient [5][7][8] Group 2 - The adjustment of the CPI growth target from 3% to a more realistic 2% reflects a pragmatic approach to economic policy, emphasizing the need for a balance between quantity and price [8] - The article suggests that current monetary and fiscal policies prioritize GDP growth over price stability, indicating a need for increased focus on price metrics in future policy frameworks [8][9] - The goal for 2025 is to achieve approximately 5% GDP growth, but achieving a positive GDP deflator may require extraordinary policy measures, highlighting the critical role of price targets in economic planning [8][9]