[Table_Page] 深度分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 2024 年çÛ 2025 年 1 季 ç{ÿ 息差回落与÷Í拖累，关ìï¿÷放持续g [Table_Summary] 核ßË点ÿ | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | _次评级 | 买入 | | ç告å期 | 2025-05-03 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表ó [Table_Author] 分÷^ÿ 倪军 SAC gË号ÿS0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分÷^ÿ 许m SAC gË号ÿS0260518080004 SFC CE No. BNU965 021-38003625 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 05/24 07/24 09/24 12/24 02/25 04/25 银行 î深300 xujie@gf.com.cn ÿì意，倪军并非港Ë券Û期货事务÷察委员会öìÝ | [Table_DocReport] 相关 究ÿ | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net investment income (NII) per share was $0.39, corresponding to a return on equity of 10.4% [6] - Adjusted net income per share was $0.30, with a return on equity of 8%, including $0.09 per share of adjusted net realized and unrealized losses [6][25] - Net asset value (NAV) per share decreased by $0.09 to $15.04, primarily due to net unrealized and realized losses [21][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross originations for the quarter were $298.9 million, with $159.5 million funded at close, reflecting a conservative approach to new investments [14] - The investment income yield remained robust at 10.8%, despite a sequential decline of about 40 basis points [12][29] - The weighted average spread on new originations increased by 30 basis points compared to previous quarters [16][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a significant deceleration in deal activity, contrary to expectations of a strong M&A environment [54] - Nonaccrual investments increased slightly to 70 basis points of total investments at fair value, with the number of nonaccrual investments remaining at nine [17][31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The investment strategy focuses on providing first lien senior secured loans to resilient middle market companies backed by strong private equity sponsors [3][39] - The company aims to navigate uncertainty by selectively looking for new loans and focusing on early detection and intervention for underperforming borrowers [9][10] - The company believes its strategy positions it well against potential tariff impacts, as most borrowers are U.S.-centric businesses [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a challenging macro environment marked by policy uncertainty and decreased consumer confidence [5][9] - The company remains cautious about new investment activity due to significant competition and unattractive deal conditions [54] - Management emphasized the importance of preparing for multiple scenarios and maintaining a resilient strategy [38][41] Other Important Information - Total distributions paid in the quarter were $0.39 per share, representing an annualized dividend yield of 10.3% [20] - The company has a strong liquidity position with approximately $1.2 billion available from unrestricted cash and undrawn commitments [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: How should we think about the base payout going forward? - Management feels confident about the current dividend level despite spread and base rate compression, citing potential near-term levers to enhance earnings [46][47][51] Question: Are repayments trending low, and what is the focus on defending names? - Management observed a significant deceleration in deal activity and noted that private equity firms are holding longer in hopes of a better selling environment [54][56] Question: Should we expect a hit next quarter from the identified tariff risk names? - Management believes the situation is manageable and is actively working with borrowers to assess potential impacts [58][60] Question: What is the outlook for smaller companies in the portfolio? - Management indicated a focus on a broad range of EBITDA levels, with a preference for the core middle market where competitive dynamics are favorable [64][66] Question: Is there any thematic underpinning to the nonaccruals this quarter? - Management stated that the increase in nonaccruals was not influenced by tariffs and reflects general credit stress in the market [70]

惠誉：美国私人信贷违约率仍在上升。 ...

智通财经5月6日电，惠誉称，美国私人信贷违约率仍在上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - QFIN's stock price increased by 2.01% to $43.64 per share, with a total market capitalization of $6.123 billion as of May 6 [1] - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, QFIN reported total revenue of 17.166 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.264 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 46.18% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - QFIN is a leading credit technology platform in China, focused on providing innovative credit services to financial institutions, consumers, and small and micro enterprises [2][3] - The company aims to enhance the accessibility and personalization of credit services through technology solutions, helping financial institutions identify and assess potential borrowers [2][3] Group 2: Target Audience - The company targets consumers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions, particularly those with limited credit histories but stable incomes and high growth potential [3] - QFIN also focuses on small and micro enterprises that lack sufficient credit history and collateral, offering tailored loan products to meet their needs [4] Group 3: Services Offered - QFIN provides two main types of services: credit-driven services and platform services, both designed to improve the lending process and borrower experience [4][5] - Credit-driven services involve matching potential borrowers with financial institutions, where QFIN assumes some credit risk [4][6] - Platform services include a range of technology solutions for different stages of the loan lifecycle, such as borrower acquisition and credit assessment, without assuming credit risk [5][6] Group 4: Technology and Innovation - The company utilizes its proprietary Intelligent Credit Engine (ICE) to offer smart marketing services and assist financial institutions in initial credit screening [6][7] - QFIN has also introduced a risk management SaaS service to help financial institutions improve their credit assessment processes [7]

预期内盈利承压，拥抱稳定、可持续、可预期的回报确定性 银行业2025年一季报综述 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 研究支持： 李禹昊 A0230123070008 联系人： 冯思远 A0230522090005 2025.5.6 投资要点 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 一季报再度出现营收利润双双下滑（营收、归母净利润分别同比下降1.7%、1.2%），除去预期内息差下行和非息基数压力对营收 的拖累外，拨备反哺力度略低于预期是利润未能如期维持正增的主因。其中，国有大行和个别股份行业绩表现低于预期，城农商行 基本上符合预期。 ◼ 开年以来贷款增长平稳符合预期，从区域上看江浙、成都等地景气度依旧较高，而重庆则成为"后起新星"：1Q25上市银行贷款增 速较年初持平7.9%，其中国有行维持约9%锚定行业增长、股份行低位降速至约4%、农商行受中小客群需求转弱拖累增速降至6.7%， 城商行总体上信贷景气度更优，除江浙一带和成都地区外，重庆银行贷款增速超16%（其中对公超30%）成为投放"新星"。 展望 全年，加征关税对银行的影响主要 ...

行业报告 | 行业深度研究 银行 证券研究报告 双重属性视角下的票据分析框架 票据的量价指标具有数据高频更新的优势，是判断信贷景气度的有效指标。 票据利率主要包括直贴利率、转贴现利率和再贴现利率。随利率市场化推进， 转贴现利率逐渐成为票据定价中枢。票据转贴现定价模式多元化，基准加点 是主要模式。定价基准参考内部资金转移定价（FTP）或外部基准，加点值 则根据信用主体类型、票据剩余期限和市场预期确定。 定期公开的票据数量指标主要来源于央行和上海票据交易所。其中，金融统 计数据中的"票据融资"和社融数据中的"未贴现银行承兑汇票"以是否贴 现为区分标准，但都体现了金融体系通过票据对实体经济的支持。一方面， 表内外票据的合计值和对公短贷会形成一定替代关系。另一方面，表外票据 是银行票据业务的蓄水池，和票据融资也存在此消彼长的"跷跷板效应"。 票据兼具资金属性和信贷属性，资金面和信贷投放情况皆影响票据利率。 票据的资金属性体现在其具备货币市场短期金融资产的特性，主要与银行的 转贴现业务和回购业务有关。票据的信贷属性体现在信贷调节工具的定位 上，与银行的承兑业务和贴现业务有关。双重属性视角下，资金面松紧决定 票据利率中枢 ...

Macro Overview - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 16,178 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing this week, with 10,870 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and 5,308 billion yuan on Wednesday [3] - The central bank will also release social financing and credit data at unspecified times this week [3] Industry Dynamics - On May 7, the U.S. EIA will release oil inventory data and a monthly short-term energy outlook report [5] - On May 8, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce interest rate decisions, followed by a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [5] - On May 9, several Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, will deliver speeches [5] - On May 7, China will report its foreign exchange reserves for April [5] - On May 9, China's General Administration of Customs will release April import and export data, and the Ministry of Finance plans to issue 71 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for the first time [5] - On May 10, China will publish monthly reports on CPI and PPI [5] - On May 6, Elon Musk's Grok 3.5 model was unveiled [5] - On May 7, Lenovo will hold its 2025 Innovation Technology Conference in Shanghai [5] - On May 8, the 27th Beijing Science and Technology Expo will take place at the National Convention Center [5] - On May 9, the 25th China Retail Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center [5] - On May 7, BeiGene (06160.HK) will announce its earnings [5] - On May 8, SMIC (00981.HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) will release their earnings, and "Hushang Ayi" (02589.HK) will be listed [5]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape among listed city commercial banks has significantly changed in Q1 2025, with Beijing Bank maintaining its leading position in asset size, while Jiangsu Bank leads in revenue and net profit [1][2] - The total number of listed city commercial banks with assets exceeding 2 trillion yuan has increased to six, including Beijing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [1] - Strong credit growth has driven asset expansion and supported revenue growth for major city commercial banks [1][3] Group 1: Asset Size and Rankings - As of Q1 2025, Jiangsu Bank's asset size reached 4.46 trillion yuan, closely trailing Beijing Bank by 98 billion yuan [1] - Ningbo Bank's asset size increased to 3.40 trillion yuan, surpassing Shanghai Bank's 3.27 trillion yuan [1] - Nanjing Bank approached 2.8 trillion yuan, while Hangzhou Bank exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the revenues of Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Shanghai Bank were 223.04 billion yuan, 184.95 billion yuan, 171.27 billion yuan, 141.90 billion yuan, and 135.97 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.21%, 5.63%, -3.18%, 6.53%, and 3.85% respectively [2] - Jiangsu Bank's net profit reached 97.8 billion yuan, followed by Beijing Bank at 76.72 billion yuan and Ningbo Bank at 74.17 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Credit Growth and Interest Income - The significant increase in credit issuance has led to a rise in net interest income for several city commercial banks, with Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Ningbo Bank reporting net interest incomes of 165.92 billion yuan, 77.52 billion yuan, and 128.35 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The year-on-year growth rates for net interest income were 21.94% for Jiangsu Bank, 17.80% for Nanjing Bank, and 11.59% for Ningbo Bank [3] - The strong performance in public loans was noted, with Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Nanjing Bank showing increases of 17.08%, 13.49%, 9.75%, and 8.75% respectively [2]

有效信贷需求不足，尤其是居民部门需求不足，使得我国银行业整体的信贷投放增速早已从此前的两位数 放缓至个位数。在这个大趋势里，有部分区域银行，得益于当地仍较强的经济活力，还是延续了较为稳健 的信贷投放增速——比如长三角的城商行们。 在这个活跃的经济区域，城商行梯队正在呈现出你追我赶的变化，资产规模座次变阵是最直观的：宁波银 行超越上海银行，坐上"包邮区"城商行资产总额的第二大交椅。 一季度"开门红"存贷高增推动资产总额稳健扩表，净息收入逆势飙升助推营收均正增，成了长三角城商行 们的共性表现。 具体看，江苏银行、宁波银行、上海银行截至一季末的资产总额分别是4.46万亿元、3.4万亿元、3.27万 亿元，分别较上年末增长12.84%、8.67%和1.37%。此外，站上两万亿元规模的两家城商行也保持均速扩 张，南京银行、杭州银行截至一季度末的资产总额分别达到了2.77万亿元、2.22万亿元，较上年末分别增 长6.71%、5.2%。 其中，江苏银行不仅是长三角城商行资产规模最大者，还是增速最高者。即便与全行业相比，该行近几年 的资产增速连续保持两位数也是比较罕见的。 推动各家银行资产总额大幅度扩表，是各自一季度"开门红 ...