Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently concerned about both rising inflation and increasing unemployment, presenting a challenging situation for the central bank [1] Group 1 - Analysts anticipate that Jerome Powell will be questioned about which risk, inflation or unemployment, poses a greater threat [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increasing risks related to rising unemployment and inflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC committee unanimously voted to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its balance sheet at the pace announced in the March meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The committee noted that uncertainty regarding the economic outlook has increased further [1] - Officials are monitoring the dual risks of high unemployment and high inflation, which they believe have both risen [1] Group 3: Trade Policy Impact - Trump's trade policies have introduced a wave of uncertainty across the economy [1] - Economists generally expect that comprehensive tariffs will lead to higher inflation and hinder economic growth, creating a conflict between the goals of price stability and maximum employment [1]

5月8日，美联储宣布将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期，连续第三次会议按兵不动。 美联储利率决议公布后，交易员继续认为美联储将在七月之前降息，仍然预期今年将有三次降息。 利率决议全文 尽管净出口的波动对数据产生了影响，但近期指标显示，经济活动仍在稳健扩张。近几个月失业率已稳 定在低位，劳动力市场状况依然稳健。通胀水平则仍略高。 在评估适当的货币政策立场时，委员会将持续关注最新信息对经济前景的影响。如出现可能阻碍实现委 员会目标的风险，委员会将准备适时调整货币政策立场。委员会的评估将综合考虑多方面信息，包括劳 动力市场状况、通胀压力与预期、金融及国际形势等。 本次货币政策行动的投票支持者包括：主席杰罗姆 · 鲍威尔（ Jerome H. Powell ）、副主席约翰 · 威廉姆斯 （ John C. Williams ）、迈克尔 · 巴尔（ Michael S. Barr ）、米歇尔 · 鲍曼（ Michelle W. Bowman ）、苏珊 · 柯 林斯（ Susan M. Collins ）、丽莎 · 库克（ Lisa D. Cook ）、奥斯坦 · 古尔斯比（ Austan D. G ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified, despite a negative GDP growth in the first quarter, which they attribute mainly to significant fluctuations in trade statistics [1] Group 1 - The first quarter GDP growth turned negative, but the Federal Reserve still believes the underlying economy remains strong [1] - The volatility in trade statistics, particularly a surge in imports before new tariffs, was a major factor leading to the GDP contraction [1] - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite the fluctuations in net exports [1] Group 2 - The new language in the policy statement acknowledges the increased risks associated with rising unemployment and inflation [1]

美联储按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。 决议声明称，前景的不确定性"进一步加重"。 失业率上升、通胀上升的风险都已经加重。 ...

美联储FOMC声明：高失业率和高通胀的风险已经上升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has indicated that the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have intensified [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's committee has assessed that the likelihood of an increase in the unemployment rate has grown [1] - The committee also noted that the risk of inflation rising has become more pronounced [1]

美联储重申失业率已稳定，劳动力市场坚韧。 ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the Philippines for March is reported at 3.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.9%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and lower than 64.5% in February [1] - The total labor force dropped to 49.96 million from 51.15 million a year ago and 51.09 million in February, indicating a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The employed population in March decreased to 48.02 million, lower than 49.15 million in both the previous year and February [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in March was 1.93 million, a decrease of 70,000 from the previous year and slightly lower than 1.94 million in February [1] - The services sector accounted for the majority of employment, with 29.77 million jobs, representing 62.0% of total employment [1] Group 3 - The underemployment rate rose to 13.4% in March, up from 11.0% a year ago and 10.1% in February, indicating that 6.44 million workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [2] - The labor force participation rate for the 15 to 24 age group fell to 29.4% from 33.3% a year ago, while the unemployment rate for this group increased from 8.7% to 11.0%, highlighting increased pressure on youth employment [2]

在贸易战阴影下，美联储对降息的态度愈加谨慎，触发降息需要就业等硬数据走弱。 5月8日北京时间凌晨2:00，美联储将公布5月利率决议，目前市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动，继续暂缓降息，即便面临着来自特朗普越来越大的降息施 压。 据追风交易台消息，高盛Jan Hatzius等分析师在近日报告中表示，与2019年贸易冲突期间相比，FOMC对降息似乎设置了更高的门槛。如今通胀和基于 调查的通胀预期都高得多，决策者需要看到更有说服力的经济放缓证据才会采取行动。 高盛研究认为，降息的最有力理由将是美联储官员认为数据表明失业率可能持续上升。这意味着需要看到失业率上升、工资增长疲软，以及公司趋于谨慎 或需求增长疲软等其他迹象。 "新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos也在最新报道中指出，面对经济衰退和通胀压力的两难困境，美联储将更倾向于"保通胀"，同时将密切关注劳动力市场的 变化，将就业数据作为其决策的重要参考。 更高的降息门槛：与2019年相比美联储更为谨慎 美联储官员近期反复强调了关税对其双重使命的风险，但表示他们处于有利位置可以等待进一步明确信息再采取行动。 高盛预计，在本周的5月FOMC会议上，鲍威尔预计将重申这一 ...