中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026年经济工作。 在关于房地产方面，会议明确：坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。着力稳定房地产市场，因 城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改 革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地 主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性 债务风险。 在最新的房地产工作要求下，2026年房地产市场会怎样？南都湾财社记者为此采访了房地产机构及多名 资深业界人士进行解读。 "稳楼市"依然是2026年房地产的政策目标 中指研究院指出，本次会议明确了2026年经济工作的八项重点任务，"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市 场"居首，而房地产作为最大的内需之一，在扩大内需方面依然要发挥重要作用，预计2026年房地产政 策将继续落实。 在"清理消费领域不合理限制措施"方面，预计住房领域不合理限制性措施将得到进一步优化调整，特别 是北上深等城市的限购政策，包括商办市场的限购政策均有优 ...

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 5.88 trillion yuan[4] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[2] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with an emphasis on optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties[4] - New local government special bonds are projected to be around 4.4 trillion yuan, excluding a 2 trillion yuan debt replacement quota[4] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will be maintained, with expectations of a 20 basis points interest rate cut and a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio reduction in 2026[6] - The growth rates for social financing and M2 are anticipated to be approximately 8% and 7.5%, respectively, with M1 growth expected to exceed the compound growth rate of the past two years[6] Domestic Demand - The focus will be on domestic demand, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and increasing the supply of quality goods and services[7] - Investment strategies will include stabilizing investment levels and optimizing the management of local government special bonds[7] Innovation and Reform - Emphasis on innovation-driven growth, with plans to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and improve the protection of intellectual property rights in emerging fields[8] - The conference called for deepening reforms to eliminate "involutionary" competition and promote win-win development among platform enterprises[8] Real Estate Market - The strategy for the real estate market will prioritize stability, with measures to control supply, reduce inventory, and encourage the purchase of existing homes for affordable housing[9] - The government aims to reform the housing provident fund system and promote the construction of quality housing[9] Risk Management - Continuous efforts will be made to manage and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and the real estate sector, to prevent systemic risks[10] - The importance of maintaining social stability and economic growth while addressing potential external challenges was emphasized[10]

记者丨李莎 编辑丨张星 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行，部署2026年经济工作，明确了八大重点任 务。 房地产仍是明年化解重点领域风险的重中之重。 "十五五"规划建议主要在民生保障领域部署 房地产工作，这次中央经济工作会议对房地产工作的部署，主要集中在"坚持守牢底线，积极 稳妥化解重点领域风险"这项重点任务中。 会议提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重 点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发 展新模式。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向21世纪经济报道记者表示，总体上看，2026年房地产政策有两 个重点：继续推动房地产市场止跌回稳，以及加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量 发展。 其中在稳市场方面，王青认为，明年政策将进一步从供需两端发力，或涉及引导商业银行加大 对房企开发贷的投放力度，继续放松限购，更大力度收购商品房用作保障房，通过居民房贷定 向降息、财政补贴等方式加大居民购房支持力度，减免房地产交易税费等多个方面。 在推动房地产高质量发展方面，在王青看来，未来房地产行业要逐步形成以租售并举、建 设"好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to strengthen domestic demand and promote the construction of quality housing through reforms in the housing provident fund system [2] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The conference highlights the importance of building a strong domestic market and implementing actions to boost consumption [2] - It aims to expand the supply of quality goods and services while optimizing the implementation of new policies [2] - Measures will be taken to clear unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash the potential of service consumption [2] Group 2: Investment and Real Estate - The conference plans to stabilize investment and increase the scale of central budget investments, particularly in key projects [2] - It emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through city-specific policies to control inventory and improve supply [2] - Encouragement will be given for the acquisition of existing housing stock for use in affordable housing [2] Group 3: Risk Management - The conference stresses the importance of managing risks in key areas, particularly in local government debt [2] - It calls for proactive measures to resolve local government debt issues and prevent the creation of new hidden debts [2] - Strategies will be optimized for debt restructuring and replacement to mitigate operational debt risks of local government financing platforms [2]

其中在稳市场方面，王青认为，明年政策将进一步从供需两端发力，或涉及引导商业银行加大对房企开 发贷的投放力度，继续放松限购，更大力度收购商品房用作保障房，通过居民房贷定向降息、财政补贴 等方式加大居民购房支持力度，减免房地产交易税费等多个方面。 在推动房地产高质量发展方面，在王青看来，未来房地产行业要逐步形成以租售并举、建设"好房子"、 回归房地产居住属性为核心的新发展模式。 会议提出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保 障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青向21世纪经济报道记者表示，总体上看，2026年房地产政策有两个重点： 继续推动房地产市场止跌回稳，以及加快构建房地产发展新模式，推动房地产高质量发展。 资料图房地产工作仍强调防风险 今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项房地产支持性政策，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动 房地产市场止跌回稳。政策成效还在继续显现，但房地产市场延续调整。 国家统计局数据显示，10月70个大中城市房价止跌回稳还面临一定压力，前10月房地产销售下降的形势 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the real estate industry, indicating a potential recovery in valuations as the sector transitions to high-quality development [4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and accelerate the construction of a new development model for the sector [4]. - The average transaction price for residential properties in China as of October 2025 was 9,588.1 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.78% [4]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 396 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of implementing city-specific policies to manage new housing supply and reduce inventory levels [4]. - The reform of the housing provident fund system is expected to expand its applicability, enhancing support for housing purchases and rental payments [4]. - The report anticipates a dual supply model of both commercial and affordable housing to meet diverse residential needs [4]. - The conference also called for the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector, which could benefit shopping centers and service consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference's focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes measures to control new housing supply and manage inventory effectively [4]. - The report notes the necessity of encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing to address basic residential needs [4]. New Development Model - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the housing provident fund system, which aim to broaden its usage for various housing-related expenses [4]. - The implementation of new standards for residential projects is expected to enhance property management and service quality [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including: - Strong developers: China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, China Resources Land, and others [4]. - Quality property management: Greentown Service [4]. - Leading commercial real estate: Hang Lung Properties [4]. - Major construction firms: Greentown Management Holdings [4]. - Leading real estate agencies: Beike-W and Wo Ai Wo Jia [4].

作者 | 第一财经 吴斯旻 构建房地产发展新模式需要建立在"去库存"和"稳楼市"基础上。为此，明年楼市供给侧改革将进一步聚焦"控 增量、去库存、优供给"，把存量房盘活与保障房建设工作相结合。与此同时，高质量的城市更新有望成 为"稳楼市"的新抓手。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。"着力稳定房地产市场"被列入"坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化 解重点领域风险"这一明年经济工作要抓好的重点任务中。 会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性 住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 "相较于去年9月份中央政治局会议中'严控增量、优化存量、提高质量'的提法，今年中央经济工作会议在展望 明年房地产工作中提出'控增量、去库存、优供给'。从'优化存量'到'去库存'，意味着在当前楼市总体需求偏 弱的背景下，去化压力仍然较大。明年需要以更大力度推动楼市去化，以实现房地产供求关系形成新的平 衡。"成都市城市建设发展研究院副院长冯波对第一财经表示。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进也认为，明年楼市政策的关键词是"去库存"。"从 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 | 购,有效防 | | | 持续用力推动 房地产市场止 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 坚持租购并 | 范化解优质 积极稳妥化 | | | 深化住房公 | | 举,加快发 | 头部房企风 | 解房地产风 | 跌回稳,充分 | 积金制度改 | | 展长租房市 | | | 释放刚性和改 | | | 场。 | 险,改善资 险。 | | 善性住房需求 | 革。 | | 产负债状 | | | | | | 况,同时要 | | | 潜力。 | | | 坚决依法打 | | | | | | 品 > > 1 = | | | | | | 行为。 | | | | | | | | 视同仁满 | | | | | | 足不同所有 | | | | 要因城施 | | 制房地产企 | | 有序推动 | | 推进保障性 策,支持刚 | | 非的合理解 | 加力实施城中 | | | 住房建设。 | 性和改善性 | 资需求,促 | 村和危旧房改 | "好房子" | | | | | 造。 | 建设。 | | 住房需求。 | | 进房地产市 | | | | | ...

2025.12. 11 本文字数：1859，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 吴斯旻 构建房地产发展新模式需要建立在"去库存"和"稳楼市"基础上。为此，明年楼市供给侧改革将进一 步聚焦"控增量、去库存、优供给"，把存量房盘活与保障房建设工作相结合。与此同时，高质量的 城市更新有望成为"稳楼市"的新抓手。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。"着力稳定房地产市场"被列入"坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险"这一明年经济工作要抓好的重点任务中。 会议指出，着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于 保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 "相较于去年9月份中央政治局会议中'严控增量、优化存量、提高质量'的提法，今年中央经济工作会 议在展望明年房地产工作中提出'控增量、去库存、优供给'。从'优化存量'到'去库存'，意味着在当 前楼市总体需求偏弱的背景下，去化压力仍然较大。明年需要以更大力度推动楼市去化，以实现房地 产供求关系形成新的平衡。"成都市城市建设发展研究院副院长冯波对第一财经表示。 上海易居房地产 ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a critical phase of structural reshaping, with distinct market segmentation and increasing complexity [1] - Despite the overall sales market not yet showing positive growth, certain hotspot cities are demonstrating signs of stabilization due to solid fundamentals, precise policy support, and effective market supply [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and improve supply quality, while encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [1] Group 1 - The transition of urbanization in China has shifted from rapid growth to stable development, leading to significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market [1] - The policies of "controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving supply" are crucial adjustments to adapt to this transformation [1] - There is a need to align new demand with new supply, focusing on the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing, which will create new growth points in the real estate sector [1] Group 2 - The meeting proposed accelerating the establishment of a new model for real estate development as a fundamental measure for stable and healthy market growth [2] - It is essential to reform and improve the basic systems of property development, financing, and sales to promote supply-demand balance and market stability [2] - Local governments are encouraged to respect market rules and implement city-specific strategies to effectively meet the public's aspirations for better living conditions [2]