零售物业市场方面，2025年第三季度北京优质零售物业市场无新增商业项目交付。核心商圈及外围商圈 各有一个成熟商业体停业，项目原有商业模式未能迎合当前消费市场需求，面临较大经营压力，后期将 更换运营方或启动改造工程。 今年前八个月，北京全市社销总额持续处于下行赛道，主要受办公用品、通讯器材、汽车等可选消费品 零售加速减弱拖累，而餐饮收入也维持同比下降。季内受中式正餐及小吃快餐放慢开业步伐影响，餐饮 业态新开店铺占比较上季度下滑4个百分点至43%；而茶饮果汁和烘焙甜品作为目前调改力度较大或热 度较高项目的"新刚需"再次发力，季内表现活跃，如可露朵、牧场奶仓、野人先生等首店或连锁店铺在 非核心商圈多点开花。 美容保健、健身、超市等生活服务配套业态在非核心商圈区域型购物中心保持活跃。能够提供情绪价值 的二次元业态仍然是各大商业项目引流首选，在策展、快闪店方面持续发力，如蛙得发快闪、名侦探柯 南快闪分别入驻西红门荟聚和西单大悦城。季内外围商圈项目重塑品牌组合、调改积极，新开店铺占比 较上季提升12个百分点，较高的换铺率带动全市季末净吸纳量为负值，空置率小幅上涨0.2个百分点至 7.7%。 世邦魏理仕华北区域董事总经理刘 ...

Core Insights - JD.com announced a collaboration with GAC Group and CATL to launch an affordable car during the "Double 11" shopping festival, focusing on user insights and sales rather than manufacturing [1][2] - JD.com reported a 47.6% year-on-year increase in active users on its app during the initial phase of "Double 11," with over 70% growth in orders for electronic products compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company is investing 2 billion yuan in promotional activities and incentives for merchants, aiming to attract new businesses and enhance its competitive edge during the shopping event [3][4] Company Strategy - JD.com is positioning itself to scale automotive after-sales services, potentially including battery maintenance, leveraging its existing car maintenance business [2][5] - The company aims to make car purchasing as convenient as buying a smartphone, addressing consumer pain points in the automotive sector [1][2] - The strategy includes a focus on service consumption, with a shift in policy support from product replacement to service consumption, indicating a broader competitive landscape for e-commerce [5][6] Market Dynamics - The "Double 11" event this year benefits from an extended timeline due to the overlap with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, enhancing sales opportunities [3][4] - Competitors like Tmall and Douyin are also ramping up their promotional activities, indicating a highly competitive environment for e-commerce platforms [3][4] - Live commerce is expected to play a significant role in driving growth during the "Double 11" event, although the future may see a diversification of e-commerce strategies beyond just live streaming [6]

Core Insights - The report by CBRE highlights that there were no new commercial projects delivered in Beijing's premium retail property market in Q3 2025, with two mature commercial entities in core and peripheral business districts ceasing operations [1] - An estimated 394,000 square meters of new retail properties are expected to open in non-core districts over the next six months, including partially operational projects like Zhongguancun Dalu City and Longfu Temple Phase II [1] - The restaurant sector saw a decline in new openings, with the proportion of new dining establishments dropping by 4 percentage points to 43% compared to the previous quarter, while tea and juice, as well as baked goods, showed strong performance [1] Retail Sector Performance - The proportion of new store openings in the apparel retail category remained above 30%, with a significant increase in new stores for men's and women's clothing, while the sports and outdoor segment slowed down [1] - High-end luxury brands have reduced their expansion, leading to closures in several core business district projects [1] Non-Core District Trends - Lifestyle service sectors such as beauty, fitness, and supermarkets remain active in non-core shopping centers, with a focus on emotional value-driven offerings like pop-up stores [2] - The outer business district projects have seen a 12 percentage point increase in new store openings compared to the previous quarter, although the overall net absorption rate for the city was negative, causing a slight increase in vacancy rates to 7.7% [2] Rental Market Dynamics - Due to cautious consumer demand and high rental capacity, many commercial entities have adjusted their leasing strategies, resulting in a decline in average first-floor rental rates, which fell by 0.6% to 30.6 yuan per square meter per day [2] - Secondary districts experienced a drop in rental rates due to intense competition and a high number of renovation projects [2] Policy Impact - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce and other departments aim to boost service consumption and enhance retail property market growth through various measures, potentially creating new growth points in the retail sector [2]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The fourth quarter is crucial for economic work and planning for the next year, with macro policies being implemented to ensure stable economic performance, requiring approximately 15 trillion yuan in investment and 13 to 14 trillion yuan in consumption [1] - New policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan are expected to support project capital, enhancing infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [4] - Local governments are anticipated to expedite the use of remaining special bond funds, with an estimated 680 billion yuan available for investment [5] Group 2: Consumer Support Policies - The government has issued 690 billion yuan in special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, with over 330 million people benefiting from subsidies, leading to sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2] - There are expectations for further support policies for large-scale consumption, including expanded subsidies for vehicle replacements and initiatives in health, medical, and digital sectors [2][3] - The retail sales of consumer goods are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the year, with consumption contributing over 50% to GDP [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - China is set to enhance its high-level opening-up policies, with the Hainan Free Trade Port scheduled to officially operate by December 2025, easing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7] - The 138th China Import and Export Fair will take place from October 15 to November 4, aiming to support foreign trade enterprises amid external challenges [7] - A series of favorable policies for foreign investment are expected to be implemented, focusing on advanced manufacturing, modern services, and high-tech sectors [7][8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and its current dynamics, including investor sentiment, monetary policy, and fiscal measures in response to trade tensions and economic pressures [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors generally hold a bullish outlook on the bond market but are hesitant to make significant investments due to uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations, economic downturn pressures, and the potential for monetary policy easing [1][2]. - **Policy Expectations**: There is low expectation for significant policy changes from the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April, with most investors anticipating a focus on maintaining economic stability and flexibility in policy implementation [1][3][5]. - **Tariff Impact**: Approximately 46% of investors believe that tariff impacts will ease in the third quarter, but overall sentiment regarding the annual outlook for tariff relief remains pessimistic [6][7]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: A majority of investors expect a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the next three months, with a smaller percentage anticipating interest rate cuts. The rationale for RRR cuts includes addressing liquidity gaps and supporting government bond issuance [9][10]. - **Bond Market Predictions**: Investors predict that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, indicating a slight downward adjustment in market expectations [11]. Additional Important Content - **Trade Policy Response**: The policy response to trade tensions includes stabilizing the market, maintaining exchange rate stability, and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on service consumption as a key driver [12][13]. - **Service Consumption Policies**: Recent policies in the service consumption sector include direct subsidies for hospitality, dining, and transportation, with expectations for further financial support to stimulate consumption [14]. - **Real Estate Sector Focus**: Key points of interest in the real estate sector include government attitudes towards market stabilization and the potential for policy shifts regarding property development and financing [15][16]. - **Credit Bond Market Regulation**: Recent regulatory changes in the credit bond market have tightened oversight on local state-owned enterprises, impacting their financing capabilities [24]. - **Local Government Financing**: Local governments, particularly in Guangdong, are actively issuing special bonds to support land reserve projects, with a focus on expediting the issuance process compared to previous years [25][37]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the bond market and related economic policies.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the market over the next six months [5][8]. Core Insights - The tourism market during the Golden Week shows an increase in volume but a decrease in prices, indicating a more rational consumer spending behavior. Domestic travel reached 888 million trips, an increase of 123 million trips compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up by 108.19 billion yuan [2][3]. - Cross-border tourism has shown significant improvement, with a total of 16.34 million inbound and outbound trips during the holiday, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-on-year. The outbound travel market is particularly strong, with popular destinations seeing over 30% growth in flight bookings [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel - The Golden Week saw an average of 111 million daily travelers, a slight increase of 1.57% year-on-year. However, the average daily spending per person decreased to 113.88 yuan, down 12.98% from the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to travel budgets [3]. Cross-Border Travel - The cross-border travel market outperformed domestic travel, with 9.17 million outbound trips from mainland residents, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The number of inbound trips from foreign visitors also rose significantly, with a 21.6% increase [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand. Key areas include: 1. Cultural tourism, particularly inbound travel and youth tourism, with a recommendation to focus on leading inbound travel agencies and scenic spots [4]. 2. Sports, where event-driven tourism and related services present substantial growth potential [4]. 3. Education, with a focus on non-academic training and vocational education sectors, which are expected to grow under supportive policies [4].

分析师：罗鹏 执业证书号：S1030523040001 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 13 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 郑彬彬] 执业证书号：S1030523030001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhengbb@csco.com.cn 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 分析师：赵靖 执业证书号：S1030525070001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 国庆中秋双节消费稳中有增 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（10 月第 2 周） [行业Table_S 观点：ummary ] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率 ...

Investment Themes - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, China State Construction, and Ningde Times in the cyclical sector[2] - In the consumer sector, recommended stocks include Hengrui Medicine and Shanxi Fenjiu[2] - In the power equipment and new energy vehicle sector, recommended stocks include Ningde Times and Goldwind Technology[2] - In the TMT sector, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy and Luxshare Precision[2] Market Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 50.40%[4] - The average gain of the recommended stock portfolio was 33.11%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index's gain of 17.90%[4] - Key outperformers included Huaxin Cement and Ningde Times, with quarterly gains exceeding 50%[4] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with a focus on "appropriate easing" in monetary policy to support growth[4] - The manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery but remained in contraction territory as of September[4] - The report anticipates continued inflow of foreign capital due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets[4] Company Highlights - Huaxin Cement's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.30, with a PE ratio of 14.27[6] - China State Construction's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.16, with a PE ratio of 4.68[12] - China Rare Earth's projected EPS for 2025 is 0.34, with a PE ratio of 150.92[25] - Hengrui Medicine's projected EPS for 2025 is 1.26, with a PE ratio of 56.90[33]

Group 1: Travel and Mobility - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from October 1 to October 8, the total cross-regional mobility reached 2.432 billion trips, with a daily average of 304 million trips, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and a 30.8% increase compared to 2019 [2] - Self-driving travel saw a significant increase, with average passenger volume growth rates for non-commercial small cars, water transport, civil aviation, commercial highways, and railways at 7.1%, 4.2%, 3.4%, 2.9%, and 2.6% respectively compared to 2024 [3] - The civil aviation market experienced a 3.3% increase in daily average passenger flights compared to last year, with international flights recovering to 92.9% of 2019 levels, primarily focused on Southeast Asia and East Asia [5] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Overall consumer spending showed a moderate recovery, with average daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increasing by 4.5% year-on-year during the holiday [9] - Service consumption outperformed goods consumption, with service consumption growing by 7.6% compared to 3.9% for goods [9] - The number of payment transactions processed by UnionPay and other platforms increased by approximately 30%, with transaction amounts rising by about 16% during the holiday [9] Group 3: Tourism and Local Consumption - Domestic tourism saw 888 million trips, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.01% [13] - The average tourism spending per person was 911 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.55% year-on-year, but an improvement compared to earlier holidays [16] - Key scenic spots experienced significant visitor growth, with popular destinations like Huangshan and Emei Mountain seeing increases in visitor numbers and ticket revenue [22][23] Group 4: Local Consumption Trends - The restaurant sector showed stable performance, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday [25] - The film industry, however, faced challenges, with box office revenue for the National Day period at 1.835 billion yuan, a decline of 13% year-on-year [27] - The average ticket price for films decreased by 9.4%, indicating a soft performance in the cinema sector [31] Group 5: Summary and Structural Highlights - The overall consumption data during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday indicated steady growth, although some sectors showed a decline compared to the May Day holiday [32] - Key structural highlights include the rising popularity of self-driving travel, a strong recovery in international flight numbers, and improved tourism spending per capita compared to earlier holidays [32]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [30] Core Views - The report highlights that during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, domestic travel reached a record high with 888 million trips and total spending of 809 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer demand [20][30] - The report notes a significant increase in hotel occupancy rates and a booming entertainment market, with attendance at sports events, music festivals, and concerts showing substantial growth [30] - The trend towards experiential travel is emphasized, suggesting that domestic travel destinations may need to adapt to meet changing consumer preferences [30] - The report anticipates more policy support for service consumption, particularly in tourism, as part of the government's focus on enhancing service sectors [30] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Consumer Services Index fell by 3.34% from September 26 to October 9, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by approximately 5.87 percentage points [8] - All sub-sectors within consumer services experienced declines, with the largest drops in tourism and hotel sectors [9] - A total of 4 companies in the industry reported positive returns, while 48 companies reported negative returns, with notable declines in companies like Caesar Travel and Kevin Education [12] Industry News - The report mentions that during the 8-day holiday, domestic travel spending reached a new high, with significant increases in long-distance and self-driving trips [20] - Jinjiang Hotels reported a 4% increase in average occupancy rates, with over 13 million guests served during the holiday period [21] - The entertainment market saw a surge, with over 3,100 performance projects and nearly 15,000 shows held, reflecting a 39.5% increase in audience attendance [24] Company Announcements - The report includes updates on various companies, such as Nanjing Tourism Group's restructuring and Kevin Education's investment in a joint venture focused on AI in education [25][29] Weekly Outlook - The report suggests focusing on companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, and Emei Mountain A, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in leisure travel [30][32]