岁末年初，全球经济变局与市场机遇交织，是投资者锚定投资方向的关键节点。国泰海通围绕建设一流投资银行战略目标，立足全球视野，践行普惠金融，助力 投资者提高长期投资胜率。 12月18日，国泰海通君弘推出"开门红"特别直播，特邀投资中国40年、长期看多中国资本市场的国际投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯，与国泰海通金牌投顾、国泰君安国际首 席经济学家、君弘App主持人展开深度对话，围绕中国资产机会、全球经济局势及底层投资逻辑等关键议题，为投资者带来穿透市场表象的洞察。 吉姆·罗杰斯与巴菲特、索罗斯并列为"三大投资家"，作为量子基金联合创始人，他曾创造10年4200%的投资组合收益成绩。尤为值得关注的是，罗杰斯是最早大举 押注中国市场的外国投资者之一，曾多次公开表态长期看好中国资本市场。本次特别直播在国泰海通君弘App、国泰海通灵犀App、凤凰网财经等十余平台播出。罗 杰斯在节目中再次明确表示，他始终持有中国资产并持续看好中国的资本市场。 连接全球智慧，以国际化视野赋能财富管理 中国市场始终是罗杰斯关注的重点，他在节目中表示，"我持有很多中国股票，我对中国的未来持乐观态度。在下一个十年、下一个世纪，中国将成为世界上最重要 的经济体 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 美国数据喜忧参半，英国货币政策或宽松，日本央行措辞放松，短期市场流动性风 险偏好较好，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定 | | ★ | | | | | | 性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期故事越来越多、短期投机资金大量涌入，美盘 ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市 | | 白银 | | | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做 | | | | 多逻辑不变。铂钯短期被资金青睐，短期资金高涨情绪延续。 | | 铜 | | 美国虹吸全球铜库存，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，铜易涨难跌，风物宜 | | | 长线持有 | 放长量，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | | | 海外锌库存显性化，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱， | | 锌 | 承压 | 国内淡季去库。隔 ...

供需方面，全球范围内，铂金市场持续处于严重短缺状态，根据WPIC最新统计，2025年全球铂金市场 预计将出现26.4吨的短缺，不过总需求预期也同比下降4%至244.8吨。 对于铂金供应短缺，世界铂金投资协会（WPIC）研究主管Edward Sterck分析，除了矿产供应端的结构 性紧张，一系列因素催生了一场三方地缘性的实物铂金争夺，美国关税政策扰动下市场持续囤积库存、 大量西迁的铂金令伦敦市场供应吃紧；此外中国市场上新铂金期货，出于交割需求也不断加大对实物货 源的吸纳力度。这场 "拉锯战" 持续推高市场紧张情绪，也降低了市场供需状况快速回归宽松的可能 性。 近日，铂金价格走势强劲，现货铂金价格一度超过每盎司1800美元。截至目前，铂金价格年内累计涨幅 已近90%，超过黄金年内涨幅，上演了一场"翻身仗"。 三轮跳涨 铂金价格年内翻倍 今年以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨105%，是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 交易人士称，这轮铂金价格的涨势受到多重因素的共同驱动，包括现货供应持续收紧、新能源产业政策 导向、地缘局势变化等。 从价格走势看，11月以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格已累计上涨超15%。拉长周期看， ...

今年是贵金属价格集体冲高的一年，继黄金和白银之后，铂金再次成为市场上最受关注的资产之一。 近日，铂金价格走势强劲，现货铂金价格一度超过每盎司1800美元。截至目前，铂金价格年内累计涨幅 已近90%，超过黄金年内涨幅，上演了一场"翻身仗"。 三轮跳涨 铂金价格年内翻倍 今年以来，NYMEX铂金期货价格累计上涨105%，是继白银后又一贵金属实现翻倍上涨。 近期，中国铂钯期货期权上市、欧洲燃油车禁令政策调整的讨论，以及"十五五"规划提到氢能关键定 位，而铂金作为氢燃料催化的首选催化剂，其利用价值更加凸显。多重利好集中推动铂金价格加速上 行。 供需方面，全球范围内，铂金市场持续处于严重短缺状态，根据WPIC最新统计，2025年全球铂金市场 预计将出现26.4吨的短缺，不过总需求预期也同比下降4%至244.8吨。 部分黄金饰品商家转换赛道 记者在深圳水贝市场看到不少新开的铂金饰品店铺，一些饰品铺位也减少了黄金饰品的摆放数量，转而 销售铂金饰品。 （水贝市场铂金饰品价格 吴家明/摄） 12月16日，记者看到水贝市场的铂金饰品克价在440元左右。有现场店铺的工作人员表示，今年以来铂 金饰品价格有过几波"行情"，今年6月的时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of personal precious metals trading business by banks acting as agents for the Shanghai Gold Exchange is aimed at managing market risks, complying with regulatory pressures, and fulfilling investor suitability obligations, leading to a more concentrated and mature market structure in precious metals investment [2][5][9]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), have announced adjustments to their personal precious metals trading business, actively clearing inactive "three-no" clients (no positions, no inventory, no debts) [4]. - ICBC's announcement indicates that from December 19, 2025, it will transfer the balances of these clients' margin accounts to their linked settlement accounts and terminate related business functions [4]. - Other banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and China Postal Savings Bank have also made similar announcements regarding the termination of agreements with inactive clients [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - Experts believe that the banks' actions will lead to a reduction in speculative trading and a reassessment of risk-return characteristics of gold investments by individual investors [7][8]. - The tightening of bank channels may result in a decrease in trading volume and liquidity in the short term, but it is expected to guide funds towards more transparent and compliant markets in the long term [8][9]. - The exit of individual investors is likely to concentrate market participants among institutional clients, leading to more rational trading behavior and potentially reducing market volatility [9]. Group 3: Business Transformation - The retail precious metals business of banks is undergoing a transformation from trading channels to asset allocation services, moving away from high-risk, high-leverage trading towards more stable financial products like gold ETFs [11][12]. - This shift indicates that banks are focusing on providing asset allocation services and standardized financial products rather than merely facilitating trading and selling physical gold [12]. - The future development of bank precious metals business is expected to remain significant, with opportunities in promoting lower-risk investment products that meet residents' demand for gold as a hedge and asset allocation [12].

兴业期货：新单可轻仓试多铂金PT2602合约 铂期货主力涨近4%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 兴业期货 新单可轻仓试多铂金PT2602合约 国信期货 铂钯短期仍处于偏强格局 12月17日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至515.00元。截止发稿，铂主力合约报 512.00元，涨幅3.84%。 昨日彭博消息，欧盟正计划将原定于2035年实施的燃油车全面禁售政策推迟至2040年，有利于改善铂钯 下游需求预期。加之金银价格处于绝对高位，铂钯相对金银明显偏低估，估值潜在补涨空间较大。新单 可轻仓试多铂金PT2602合约。 美国就业数据相对偏弱，尤其是失业率升至四年高位，可能进一步强化市场对货币政策将维持宽松的预 期，从而为包括铂钯在内的贵金属板块提供金融属性层面的支撑。同时，在白银及黄金高位震荡期间， 兼具工业与金融属性的铂族金属成为部分资金进行板块内轮动的重点方向。技术面上，铂金主力合约关 键支撑位于460元/克附近，若能持稳则有望继续上探500元/克附近阻力。整体来看，铂钯短期仍处于偏 强格局，但需警惕连续上涨后可能出现的波动加剧风险。操作上建议维持回调布局思路，轻仓参与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of personal precious metals trading by banks acting as agents for the Shanghai Gold Exchange is aimed at managing market risks, complying with regulatory pressures, and fulfilling investor suitability obligations, leading to a more concentrated and mature market structure focused on institutional clients [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), have announced adjustments to their personal precious metals trading business, actively clearing inactive "three-no" clients (no positions, no inventory, no debts) [2][3]. - ICBC's announcement states that from December 19, 2025, it will transfer the balances of these clients' margin accounts to their linked settlement accounts and terminate related business functions [2][3]. - Other banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and China Postal Savings Bank have also made similar announcements regarding the termination of agreements with inactive clients [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - Experts believe that the exit of personal investors from bank channels may lead to a decrease in trading volume and a return of margin funds, while also pushing investors towards futures companies, brokerages, or physical gold platforms, accelerating the differentiation and specialization of precious metals investment channels [4][5]. - The adjustments are expected to help investors reassess the risk-return characteristics of gold investments, promoting a shift from short-term speculation to long-term asset allocation [4][5]. Group 3: Transformation of Banking Precious Metals Business - The retail side of banking precious metals business is transitioning from a trading channel to asset allocation services, moving away from high-risk, high-leverage products towards more stable financial products like gold ETFs [5]. - This shift indicates a transformation in the retail precious metals business model from providing trading channels and physical sales to offering asset allocation services and standardized financial products [5]. - Future growth opportunities for banks in the precious metals sector include promoting lower-risk investment products such as accumulated gold and physical gold bar sales, catering to residents' demand for hedging and asset allocation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of personal precious metal trading by banks acting as agents for the Shanghai Gold Exchange is aimed at managing market risks, complying with regulatory pressures, and fulfilling investor suitability obligations, leading to a more concentrated and mature market structure in the precious metals investment sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Bank Actions - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), have begun to clear inactive "three-no" clients (no positions, no inventory, no debts) from their precious metal trading services [1][2]. - ICBC announced that starting December 19, 2025, it will transfer the balances of these clients' margin accounts to their settlement accounts and terminate related business functions [1]. - Other banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and China Construction Bank have also announced similar adjustments to their precious metal trading services [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The banks' actions are seen as a response to increased compliance costs and market risk management, especially following the introduction of new gold tax regulations [2][3]. - The reduction of inactive accounts may lead to a decrease in speculative trading and a potential decline in market liquidity and trading activity in the short term [4][5]. - In the long term, the shift is expected to guide funds towards more transparent and regulated markets, reducing volatility and promoting rational trading behavior among institutional clients [5][6]. Group 3: Business Transformation - The retail precious metal business of banks is transitioning from a focus on trading channels to asset allocation services, moving away from high-risk, high-leverage products [6]. - Banks are expected to promote lower-risk investment products such as gold ETFs and physical gold sales, catering to the demand for risk-averse investment options [6]. - This transformation indicates a shift towards a "light asset" model, focusing on providing asset allocation services rather than merely facilitating transactions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's personal precious metals trading business is tightening as banks like ICBC are actively clearing inactive "three-no" customers (no positions, no inventory, no debts) to manage market risks and comply with regulatory pressures [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - Multiple banks, including ICBC, have announced adjustments to their agency business for the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with ICBC set to transfer inactive customers' margin account balances to settlement accounts starting December 19, 2025 [3]. - Other banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank have also indicated similar adjustments, with Agricultural Bank planning to terminate agreements with inactive customers starting October 29, 2023 [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Experts believe that the tightening of bank policies will lead to a more concentrated market with institutional clients, potentially resulting in a more mature and stable market structure [1][5][7]. - The reduction in active personal investors may lead to a decrease in trading volume and liquidity in the short term, but it could also encourage a shift towards more professional trading platforms [6][7]. Group 3: Business Transformation - The retail precious metals business of banks is transitioning from a trading channel to asset allocation services, moving away from high-risk, high-leverage products towards more stable financial products like gold ETFs [9]. - This shift indicates a broader trend in the banking sector towards providing risk-averse investment options that meet consumer demand for gold as a hedge and asset allocation tool [9].

常州金店和扬州金店，它们的价格也很有竞争力，常州金店的黄金每克1300元，铂金598元；扬州金店的黄金价格更低，每克1220元，铂金每克500元。 金价"降温"信号明确！沪金期货跌0.15%，品牌金饰周生生1351元 伦敦金价格跌到了每盎司4300美元，国内的金店也跟着下调了价格，就连周大福这样的知名品牌，金价都降到了每克1348元，比上个星期便宜了二三十块 钱，更让人吃惊的是白银，今天国际银价小幅下跌，今年累计涨幅已经超过了100%，国内银饰店门口也挤满了热情的顾客。 千禧之星和吉盟珠宝的黄金价格略高，分别为每克1339元和1338元，铂金则稍便宜一些，分别是600元和681元每克，东祥金店的黄金价格与前两家相近，也 是1300元每克，铂金价格略高，为598元每克。 萃华金店的黄金价格稍低，每克1328元，铂金价格相对较低，为364元每克，百泰黄金的价格更为亲民，黄金每克1245元，金条更是只要1118元每克，金象 珠宝的黄金价格为1324元每克，也是一个不错的选择。 金价下跌对消费者来说是个好消息，之前金价一度高达每盎司4400多美元，让金店老板都不敢进货，现在金价回落，购买首饰的顾客也随之增多，白银虽然 ...