Market Overview - A-shares have recently surged, breaking through the 3700-point mark, reaching a four-year high, the last occurrence being in December 2021 [1][3] - The market experienced a significant drop after briefly surpassing 3700 points, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng turning negative [3][6] Market Dynamics - The rise in A-shares is attributed to various factors including easing monetary policies, strong performance from insurance funds, and active retail trading [3][6] - The recent market correction is seen as a healthy adjustment after a substantial increase, particularly affecting stocks in hot sectors such as military, PCB, and CPO, which had previously gained around 10% in the last ten days [6][14] Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable increase in retail investor interest, with many individuals sharing their stock market gains on social media, indicating a growing enthusiasm for stock trading [6][8] - Prominent fund managers are publicly sharing their investment strategies, with some managing substantial amounts, reflecting a trend of increased transparency in the investment community [6][17] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term, with potential for a significant upward movement around mid-September [16][17] - Key upcoming events, such as the Federal Reserve's meetings and important policy announcements in October, are expected to influence market dynamics and investor confidence [17][18] Sector Performance - Specific sectors like military equipment, PCB, and CPO have shown significant declines, with the PCB index dropping by 4.37%, indicating a broader trend of profit-taking in previously high-performing areas [5][14] - The market is characterized by a "bull market" mentality, with strategies focusing on liquidity and fundamental growth expected to drive future performance [18]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the high-quality development of urban economies in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, analyzing 904 urban districts and highlighting significant growth trends and structural changes in urban economies [1][6][10]. Economic Growth - From 2020 to 2024, the GDP of urban districts in China increased from 45.2 trillion yuan to 57.2 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of approximately 6.1% [1][22]. - The number of "billion-yuan urban districts" rose from 111 to 171, with 16 new additions in 2024, indicating a significant enhancement in the scale of urban economies [1][22]. Regional Disparities - The report notes a slight alleviation of the "East Strong, West Weak" pattern, with 58 districts in the East, 19 in the West, 22 in the Central region, and 1 in Northeast China. However, the "South Strong, North Weak" trend remains pronounced, with 84 districts in the South and 16 in the North [1][10]. Development Trends - Six major trends are expected for the top 100 urban districts during the "14th Five-Year Plan": 1. Innovation will shift from technology catching up to original leadership 2. Industry will transition from scale expansion to high-end value chain refinement 3. Spatial development will evolve from single-point growth to networked collaboration 4. Ecology will transform from emission reduction constraints to zero-carbon industries 5. Openness will change from foreign trade dependence to rule-based leadership 6. Society will progress from basic security to quality living [1][11][10]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests promoting the integration of "science and technology + industry," advancing the "strong foundation leap chain" in advanced manufacturing, and enhancing the "people-city integration" for spatial reconstruction [1][11][19]. Innovation and Investment - As of 2024, there are 299,764 high-tech enterprises located in urban districts, with 8,424 specialized and innovative "little giant" enterprises, primarily concentrated in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces [27][29]. - Fixed asset investment in urban districts showed a recovery trend, with an average growth rate rebounding from 1.9% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024 [30][31]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in urban districts increased from 18.57 trillion yuan in 2020 to 23.10 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting strong consumer resilience and potential [30][31]. Industrial Clusters - Nearly 50% of the 100 small and medium-sized enterprise characteristic industrial clusters identified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are located in urban districts, indicating a robust industrial cluster development [31][33]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that urban districts will continue to play a crucial role in driving high-quality economic development in China, serving as a vital force in building a more resilient and dynamic modern economic system [25][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a top-down research approach in navigating market uncertainties, utilizing macroeconomic data and policy directions to form a probability framework for decision-making [2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential slowdown in the US and European economies, with risks and opportunities coexisting due to monetary policy easing and its impact on corporate earnings and emerging market liquidity [3]. - The report highlights the significance of supply-demand balance as a key factor for the basic fundamentals to improve further [5]. Group 2: Policy Directions and Asset Pricing - Four major policy directions are analyzed for their impact on industry dynamics and overall corporate earnings growth predictions for the second half of the year [11]. - The report discusses a "mirror" distribution of concentrated debt in the first half of the year and an increase in construction projects in the second half, indicating a diversification of fiscal tools [9]. Group 3: Inflation and Pricing Dynamics - The analysis of the current inflation cycle reveals a preliminary formation of price diffusion effects, with expectations for price trends in the second half of the year and early next year [12]. - The consensus on supply-demand imbalance has constrained inflation expectations, which may change in the second half as new policy tools are implemented [10]. Group 4: Long-term Planning and Strategic Insights - A comprehensive study of the 14th Five-Year Plan outlines key themes such as innovation-driven growth, supply-demand balance, and regional collaboration, which are essential for understanding short-term expectations and mid-term policy clues [14].

陕西省政府投资评审中心及陕西发改委规划处、投资处、基础处、项目办负责同志参加对接座谈。 中国发展改革网讯 记者李建飞 按照陕西省发展改革委党组开展"四个走出去"活动、服务陕西高质量发 展的总体安排，近日，陕西发改委党组成员、副主任温志刚带队赴国家开发银行陕西省分行对接"十五 五"重大项目谋划工作。国家开发银行陕西省分行党委书记、行长吴元作参加座谈。 国家开发银行陕西省分行贷款规模长期稳居陕西省首位，为陕西一批具有全局性、标志性的重大项目提 供了强有力金融支撑。 对接座谈中，双方高度评价前期合作成果，一致表示，重大项目是经济发展的压舱石，也是规划落地的 硬支撑，下一步将强化协同、凝聚合力，持续深化重大项目协调推进合作机制，紧密围绕国家和我省重 大战略、发展规划，以"三张清单"为抓手，共同谋划、论证、储备一批支撑"十五五"规划的重大项目； 将联合建立常态化、宽领域的"十五五"重大项目谋划平台，充分发挥开发性金融"融智+融资"优势，在 项目可行性研究、创新投融资模式、争取国家支持政策等方面深化协作，为重大项目落地见效提供全方 位支撑。 ...

Group 1: Policy Direction - The political bureau meetings from April to July shifted focus towards cultivating "internationally competitive" emerging pillar industries, aligning with the dual core demands of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technological self-reliance and global economic engagement[3] - Emerging pillar industries are expected to play a crucial role in addressing both domestic challenges and international competition, becoming a significant focus in the "15th Five-Year Plan"[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" established a precedent for strategic emerging industries, emphasizing the need to bridge gaps in key sectors while fostering new industries[4] Group 2: Historical Context and Trends - Historical analysis from the "12th" to "15th Five-Year Plans" reveals two key trends: continuous investment in critical areas to reduce gaps and proactive positioning in emerging industries to lead global technological innovation[12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" continued this trend by deploying strategic emerging industries and future industries, focusing on both "bridging gaps" and "nurturing new growth"[15] - Key strategic emerging industries identified include biomedicine, new generation information technology, and advanced structural materials, which are crucial for enhancing global competitiveness[15] Group 3: Future Industry Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to expand the scope of strategic emerging industries to include deep-sea space development and intelligent connected vehicles, with a significant increase in exploration of future industries[24] - Key areas of focus for the "15th Five-Year Plan" include intelligent robotics, marine economy, deep-sea technology, low-altitude economy, intelligent connected vehicles, brain-like intelligence, 6G, quantum information, hydrogen energy, and gene technology[27][30] - The development of these industries is expected to enhance production efficiency, resource security, and technological advancement across various sectors[27][30] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include inaccuracies or incompleteness in data and information statistics, which may affect the understanding of industry deployment and development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[31] - There is a risk that the actual deployment of emerging pillar industries may not align with current expectations, as future policy directions could evolve beyond existing discussions[31] - The pace of deployment for emerging pillar industries during the "15th Five-Year Plan" may fall short of expectations, despite the rising necessity for accelerated development[31]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points, driven by strong performances in non-bank financials, computers, and electronics, while the defense and military sector experienced significant pullbacks [1] - The Aerospace ETF (159227) saw a trading volume of 87.08 million yuan, maintaining its position as the top performer in its category, despite a decline of 1.57% [1] - The military industry is expected to see increased demand and recovery in overall industry prosperity due to the upcoming military parade on September 3 and the completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is entering a critical phase for capability delivery [1] Group 2 - The Aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the National Aerospace Index, which has a strong military attribute with 97.86% of its components from the military industry, and a high weight of 66.8% in aerospace equipment, making it the highest military content index in the market [2] - This ETF provides investors with an efficient way to capture core military aerospace opportunities [2]

市人大常委会秘书长陈正峰参加调研。 苏州先进材料谷项目以中国建材为牵引，吸收带动更多先进材料企业集聚。调研组了解项目规划布 局、景观交通及一期进展等情况。中国汽研长三角研究院暨华东总部基地聚焦新能源、智能网联前沿技 术及芯片、电子通信等领域，助力汽车产业高质量发展。调研组听取项目建设、技术研发、市场拓展等 情况介绍。苏州实验中学太湖科学城校区是苏州高新区重点打造的苏式园林风格现代化高中，计划9月 投入使用。调研组考察校园环境和教学空间，了解学校开学前准备工作。在座谈会上，苏州高新区汇报 了"十五五"重大项目谋划推进情况。 李亚平对苏州高新区重大项目谋划推进情况给予肯定。他指出，今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也 是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年，抓紧抓实中长期重大项目至关重要。要认真落实市委相关要求，不断提 升重大项目谋划水平，围绕基础设施、科技创新、产业发展、社会民生等重点领域，紧盯国家政策导向 和支持鼓励发展的领域，抢抓机遇、谋划项目、厚植优势，切实把政策红利转化为具体项目和发展实 效。要抓实前期工作，进一步梳理重大项目建设储备情况，在建项目要明确"十五五"期间建设目标，储 备项目要努力提高项目成熟度。要强化上 ...

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is significant for China's modernization process, with public input being crucial for its formulation [1] - A total of 3.113 million suggestions were collected during the online consultation period from May 20 to June 20, providing valuable references for the plan [1][6] - The consultation utilized various platforms to engage over 1.1 billion internet users, emphasizing the importance of public opinion in policy-making [2][6] Group 2 - The consultation process included innovative methods to enhance user experience, such as AI-assisted feedback and a points reward system for participation [3][5] - The themes of the suggestions included "artificial intelligence," "cultural heritage preservation," and "common prosperity," reflecting diverse public concerns [4][5] - The initiative aimed to ensure that the planning process is democratic and responsive to the needs of the populace, enhancing governance effectiveness [6][7] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of integrating public wisdom and expert opinions into the planning process to improve its scientific and operational quality [7] - The initiative is seen as a way to activate governance mechanisms, ensuring that citizen voices are heard and addressed in policy formulation [6][7]

Economic Growth Targets - The nominal GDP growth target during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is set at no less than 5.5% to ensure the achievement of the 2035 vision goal[1] - To reach the 2035 goal of per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country, nominal GDP growth must average at least 5.4% over the next decade[1] - The average nominal GDP growth over the past eight quarters was only 4.2%, indicating a gap from the medium- to long-term target[1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The key to recovering nominal GDP growth lies in the price level; if the GDP deflator returns to the average level of 1.7% from 2012 to 2025, nominal GDP growth could reach 6.1%[1] - The GDP deflator averaged -0.9% over the past eight quarters, with a significant negative growth in service prices, necessitating a boost in consumer demand to recover service prices[1][2] Long-term Economic Strategy - The long-term economic growth strategy consists of three levels: the highest is the "three-step" strategy, the middle is the doubling target, and the lowest is the annual growth target[1] - Achieving the doubling target requires an average annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2020 to 2035, with a projected average growth rate of 5.4% for 2021-2025[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks to achieving the 2035 goals include potential long-term appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which could enhance the dollar-denominated per capita GDP[2] - Changes in real estate, consumption, exports, and population dynamics could significantly impact future economic growth and price levels[2]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has set 20 key indicators, with 5 being binding ecological indicators, indicating a strong focus on green development [11][20] - The transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to emphasize qualitative improvements in ecological health and system restoration, moving from quantity to quality [3][20] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to align with China's carbon peak target by 2030, suggesting that ecological constraints will remain significant [3][19] Summary by Sections 1. Status of Ecological Indicators in Previous Plans - The "13th Five-Year Plan" included 25 indicators, with 10 being binding ecological indicators, while the "14th Five-Year Plan" reduced this to 5 binding ecological indicators [9][11] - The completion of ecological indicators has faced challenges, particularly in the context of transitioning development models and balancing multiple objectives [2][14] 2. Predictions for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on ecological health and system restoration, with a shift from single-point governance to collaborative governance [3][19] - Policy tools are anticipated to diversify, with a focus on more precise binding indicators and supporting market incentives [3][20] 3. Investment Recommendations - The current A-share market is positioned for a "slow bull" run, influenced by the overlapping trends of new policies and significant investments [20][22] - Key sectors to watch include long-term capital inflow related to dividend stocks (banks, insurance), technology (AI), and consumption sectors with solid fundamentals [20][22]