证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 22 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250722 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】提振消费的几点思考*朱启兵。短期内提振消费的关键在于增 强政府财政能力以及增加居民收入，中期提振消费需要收入分配制度的变革 和城镇化的持续推进。 【电子】鹏鼎控股*苏凌瑶。公司发布 2025 年半年度业绩预告，根据业绩预 告及月度营收披露，2025 年上半年公司有效降本同时稳步推进产品结构优 化，上半年营收利润取得增长。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | ...

Consumption Insights - China's final consumption expenditure accounted for 56.6% of GDP in 2024, with household consumption at 70.6% and government consumption at 29.4%[9] - The nominal growth of final consumption expenditure in 2024 was only 3.9%, the second-lowest since 1995, while actual growth was 3.7%[26] - Government consumption expenditure growth was particularly weak, with a nominal increase of just 0.7% in 2024, compared to a 5.0% increase in household consumption[26] Economic Factors - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 44.5% in 2024, down from over 50% in most years since 2011[25] - The decline in household consumption growth is attributed to slowing income growth, particularly in property and transfer income, which saw declines of 5.44% and 5.00% respectively[36] - The wealth effect has weakened due to a downturn in the real estate market, impacting consumer spending[46] Policy Recommendations - Short-term strategies to boost consumption include enhancing government fiscal capacity, increasing transfer income for residents, and improving the nominal growth environment[57] - Long-term strategies focus on reforming income distribution systems and promoting urbanization as key drivers for consumption growth[57] - Strengthening fiscal policy is essential, as local government leverage reached a historical high of 36.8% by early 2025, indicating a need for central government intervention[58] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 88% and the consumer expectation index at 89.5% as of May 2025, both below the neutral level of 100%[47] - The Engel coefficient for urban residents was 28.8% in 2024, indicating a rise in basic consumption needs relative to total consumption[49]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the banking industry and the broader economic context in China, particularly focusing on the "脱虚向实" (devirtualization) policy aimed at promoting industrial development while addressing issues in the service sector [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Shift and Economic Impact** - The "脱虚向实" policy has led to an imbalance in resource allocation, favoring industrial sectors over services, resulting in reduced employment opportunities in the latter [2][3]. - The current policy shift aims to counteract the negative effects of price competition in industries, which has led to declining profit margins and increased unemployment [1][3]. 2. **Banking Sector Performance** - Recent mid-term financial reports from banks, particularly Hangzhou Bank, show a profit growth of nearly 17%, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong performance in the city commercial banking sector [4][17]. - The overall banking sector is expected to see improved performance due to the positive trends in revenue and profit growth, with non-performing asset (NPA) ratios remaining low [2][19]. 3. **Effects of Anti-Internal Competition Measures** - Anti-internal competition measures are being implemented across various industries, including banking, to stabilize prices and improve profit margins [5][10]. - These measures have shown initial effectiveness, with some banks reporting an increase in NPA and stabilization of interest margins [5][17]. 4. **Industrial Sector Challenges** - The industrial sector faces issues of overcapacity and fierce competition, particularly among small enterprises producing low-quality goods at low prices, which pressures larger firms [6][8]. - The government is implementing measures such as supply control, price regulation, and higher environmental standards to address these challenges [7][9]. 5. **Price Recovery and Market Dynamics** - The measures taken are expected to uplift industrial product prices, which may also affect non-industrial goods, aiming for a restoration of normal price levels rather than excessive inflation [10][11]. - Different industries are responding variably to these policies, with significant price increases observed in commodities like polysilicon and lithium [11][12]. 6. **Macroeconomic Implications** - The policies are anticipated to reflect positively in macroeconomic indicators such as PPI and CPI, with a projected GDP growth rate of around 5% [13]. - Improved corporate profitability is expected to lead to a bull market in stocks, benefiting various sectors including services [13][25]. 7. **Investment Outlook** - The current market shows a preference for stocks and commodities, with a cautious approach towards bonds due to limited room for interest rate declines [14][15]. - The banking sector is viewed as having potential for valuation recovery, especially for banks with strong fundamentals [19][20]. 8. **Insurance Capital Strategies** - Insurance capital is favoring high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, indicating a selective investment approach based on specific circumstances rather than a broad sell-off [21][22]. 9. **Dividend Performance in Banking** - The dividend yield for large banks has dropped below 4%, while city commercial banks maintain higher yields, making them attractive to investors [23][24]. Other Important Insights - The banking sector's future performance is expected to improve as the market has not fully recognized the potential of quality financial institutions [25]. - The ongoing adjustments in government policy reflect a strategic response to previous economic challenges, aiming to foster a more balanced and sustainable growth environment across sectors [1][3].

Group 1 - Domestic demand, especially consumption, is the main driver of GDP growth, contributing 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of 2025, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [1] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth in Q2 was 52.3%, showing a slight increase from Q1 [1] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have been frequently introduced this year, leading to a sustained increase in the consumption market's activity [1][10] Group 2 - Cultural and tourism consumption has shown significant growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2][4] - The "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption quality and promoting various integrated consumption scenarios [4] - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods has significantly boosted sales, with a reported 1.1 trillion yuan in sales driven by this initiative by May 31, 2025 [5] Group 3 - The government plans to continue supporting consumption, with 50% of the annual budget for "old-for-new" subsidies already utilized, and additional funds to be released in the second half of the year [6] - The average disposable income per capita in China reached 21,840 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a nominal growth of 5.3% [7] - The focus on increasing residents' income and improving the consumption environment is crucial for sustainable consumption growth [7][8] Group 4 - The second half of 2025 is expected to see continued support for consumption growth, driven by effective policies and the release of service consumption potential [10][12] - Recent local government initiatives have targeted service consumption, aiming to enhance cultural, tourism, and sports consumption [12] - Financial support for consumption is being strengthened, with new guidelines aimed at enhancing residents' consumption capacity and expanding financial supply [14] Group 5 - International financial institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China, citing the positive effects of recent policies and the significant growth potential in technology and consumption sectors [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth of consumer spending in China, which significantly contributes to GDP growth, with domestic demand accounting for 68.8% of GDP growth in the first half of the year, and final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [1][3] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to a series of incremental policies that have effectively stimulated the market, showcasing the potential of China's large-scale economy [1][3] - Consumer preferences are shifting from basic needs to quality and experience, as evidenced by the strong sales of home appliances and cultural products, with retail sales in these categories growing by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The emergence of new consumer demands is driving growth in niche markets, with initiatives like the "cool economy" and various local events aimed at enhancing consumer experience [2] - Local governments are actively promoting diverse and personalized consumption, with initiatives such as fashion consumption expansion plans and unique local events to stimulate market dynamics [2] - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency as a key task for 2025, with specific action plans to address barriers to consumer spending [3]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Measures" by Chongqing aims to enhance consumption's foundational role in economic development and better meet the people's needs for a better life [5][6][12]. Group 1: Key Highlights of the Measures - The Measures include 26 initiatives focusing on promoting employment, ensuring consumer capacity, enhancing service consumption, upgrading major consumption, improving consumption quality, and optimizing the consumption environment [5][6]. - Chongqing's approach emphasizes creating unique consumption scenarios by leveraging its geographical features, such as utilizing "cave resources" for immersive dining experiences [6]. - The Measures provide targeted financial incentives for the automotive industry, particularly for smart connected new energy vehicles, with subsidies of up to 80,000 yuan for specific vehicle types [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Incentives and Support - Chongqing's Measures outline substantial financial support, including up to 5 million yuan for hosting major events and various rewards for new retail initiatives [7]. - The Measures aim to enhance consumer confidence by ensuring a safe consumption environment, addressing issues from consumer rights to product quality [11]. Group 3: Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - Chongqing's social retail sales are projected to reach 15,677.37 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2020 to 2024, surpassing the national average [11][12]. - The Measures focus on increasing residents' income and employment opportunities, targeting the creation of over 650,000 urban jobs annually [8][12]. - The strategy includes enhancing consumer willingness through various subsidies for new energy vehicles and household appliances [11]. Group 4: Long-term Strategies for Consumption - The Measures emphasize the need for sustained economic growth to support consumption, suggesting a dual focus on economic stability and income growth [12][13]. - Recommendations include developing local industries and new business models to expand consumption opportunities, such as low-altitude and cruise economies [13][14]. - The focus on job stability and skill enhancement aims to empower residents to increase their consumption capacity [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Municipal Government has issued measures to stimulate consumption by encouraging financial institutions and businesses to increase resource investment and jointly conduct trade-in promotional activities [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The government aims to promote the green and intelligent upgrade of durable consumer goods, particularly in the home appliance sector [1] - Support is provided for the trade-in of qualified and safe electric bicycles, as well as digital products such as mobile phones and tablets [1] Group 2: Market Development - The measures include promoting the construction of pilot projects for second-hand goods circulation, fostering a diversified second-hand goods circulation主体 [1] - Innovative methods for second-hand goods circulation are encouraged to enhance market efficiency [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Municipal Government has issued measures to stimulate consumption, including guiding financial institutions to reasonably lower commercial personal housing loan interest rates and supporting improved housing consumption [1] Group 1: Policy Measures - The measures include optimizing the identification method for personal housing units [1] - From May 30, 2025, to December 31, 2025, a subsidy of 1% of the total purchase price will be provided for new housing purchases in the central urban area if the original housing is sold within one year [1] - For new housing purchases in the central urban area with a single unit area of over 140 square meters, a subsidy of 0.5% of the total purchase price will be granted [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strengthening of domestic consumption as a strategic move to stabilize the economy, with a focus on implementing specific actions to boost consumption [1] - The contribution of domestic demand to GDP growth reached 68.8% in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [1] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in platform consumption vouchers by Taobao Flash has significantly lowered consumption barriers, leading to explosive growth in summer economic activities across various regions [1] Group 2 - Service consumption is identified as a key driver for economic growth, with the potential to support more small and medium-sized businesses and create jobs, thus forming a positive cycle [2] - Since the launch of Taobao Flash, 240,000 new merchants have joined the platform, with non-food orders exceeding 16% of total orders, and average revenue per store for new small merchants nearly doubling in June [2] - The dual model of "platform subsidies + merchant leverage" is seen as a way to avoid traditional price wars, with government support for consumption and service industry investment [2] Group 3 - The rapid expansion of emerging service industries is becoming a major new driver of economic growth, as evidenced by significant increases in orders and revenue for various businesses [3] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers has revealed key patterns in consumer behavior, indicating that coordinated efforts between policy, platform support, and merchant responsiveness can accelerate new consumption [3] - The emphasis on fully releasing domestic demand potential is reflected in the details of new merchant digital capabilities and significant increases in nighttime revenue for stores [3] Group 4 - The approach of platforms not competing against merchants but instead empowering them can enhance merchant enthusiasm and create a larger consumer market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of China Shanghai Branch is launching the "Hu-Kong GO" dual-city consumption promotion event to support the construction of Shanghai as an international consumption center and boost consumer spending in both Shanghai and Hong Kong [1][2] Group 1: Event Details - The "Hu-Kong GO" event is a collaboration between the Bank of China Shanghai Branch, Bank of China Hong Kong, Bank of China Credit Card Company, and China UnionPay, aimed at enhancing consumer experiences in both cities [1] - The event will offer various consumer benefits across multiple sectors, including discounts at over 500 merchants, hotel discounts from major hotel groups, and tax refund privileges for purchases [1] Group 2: Previous Initiatives - The Bank of China Shanghai Branch has previously launched several promotional activities, such as "Yue 'Hui' Wuwu" and "Shanghai Blossoms Season," involving over 1,000 merchants annually in key areas like Nanjing Road and Lujiazui [1] - The bank has also expanded electronic tax refund channels and released a shopping tax refund service guide to enhance the consumer experience [1] Group 3: Future Plans - The Bank of China Shanghai Branch plans to continue its "Finance for the People" approach, exploring new methods and models to meet consumer needs and contribute to Shanghai's development as a globally influential consumption center [2]