韩文秀 2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议是党的二十届四中全会后一次十分重要的会议。习近平总书记在会上发 表了重要讲话，全面总结2025年经济工作和"十四五"时期经济社会发展成就，深入分析国际国内形势，系统部署 了2026年经济工作，为确保"十五五"开好局、起好步提供了科学指引。我们要认真学习领会中央经济工作会议精 神，全面抓好贯彻落实。 一、准确把握我国发展面临的国际国内形势 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，发展历程很不平凡，取得成绩令人鼓舞。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团 结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个 大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现出强 大韧性和活力。国民经济主要指标表现好于预期，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，房地产 等重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 在充分肯定成绩的同时，也要看到，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少。 从国际看，世界百年变局加速演进，国际力量对比深刻调整，形势愈发动荡。一是地缘政治变乱交织。热点 地区地缘冲突易发 ...

强化财政金融支持，是服务消费扩容增长的"助推器"。服务消费领域的中小微经营主体居多，新业态的 培育、消费基础设施的完善，都需要金融活水的精准滴灌和财政资金的有效引导。《方案》打出的财政 金融"组合拳"，兼顾"输血"与"造血"，精准发力服务消费新增长点。例如，统筹利用现有资金渠道支持 服务消费发展，优化实施服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，为市场主体降低融资成本；引导金融机构加大 信贷投放、创新特色金融产品，破解服务消费领域融资难、融资贵问题；支持符合条件的企业发行债 券、消费基础设施项目发行REITs，盘活存量资产，拓宽市场化融资渠道；加大消费信贷支持力度，推 动金融机构与商家合作开发适配服务消费特点的产品，从需求端撬动消费潜力。 一分部署，九分落实。服务消费的发展具有鲜明的个性化特征，不同地区的消费需求、产业基础、资源 禀赋差异显著，这就要求各地区、各有关部门跳出"一刀切"的政策思维，结合实际创新支持举措，细化 落实方案。既要聚焦本地特色培育服务消费新场景、新赛道，如文旅资源丰富的地区发力"旅游+"融合 消费，老龄化程度较高的地区完善养老家政服务供给，产业集聚的地区培育体育、教育等特色消费业 态，也要加强部门协同 ...

（原标题：从"三驾马车"看2025中国经济高质量收官的内生逻辑与外部意义） 一、消费向"主引擎"回归：从规模扩容到结构升级的内需逻辑 敦志刚/文 回望2025年的"年报答卷"，值得关注的不是单一指标的亮眼，而是增长结构与发展逻辑的改善：全年最 终消费支出、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口对经济增长的贡献率分别为52.0%、15.3%、32.7%。 其中，消费贡献超过五成，服务消费与数字消费加速扩容；投资在房地产调整中"去旧立新"，设备更新 与高技术投资抬升资本质量；外贸在不确定性中稳住规模并优化结构，高技术出口与市场多元化增强韧 性；价格、预期、利润等关键变量边际改善，为2026年开局提供更顺畅的宏观环境。 由此可见，中国经济的优势正在从规模体量的"静态优势"，转化为制度协同、产业升级、市场整合带来 的"动态优势"。 资后，固定资产投资仅下降0.5%，显示投资下行主要来自房地产调整的拖累而非实体经济全面收缩。 分领域看，基础设施投资下降2.2%，制造业投资增长0.6%，房地产开发投资下降17.2%；新建商品房销 售面积88101万平方米，下降8.7%，销售额83937亿元，下降12.6%，表明房地产仍在出清与重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement various measures in 2026 to boost consumption, support foreign trade innovation, and expand bilateral investment opportunities. Group 1: Foreign Trade Innovation - The establishment of a negative list management system for cross-border service trade and the construction of a national service trade innovation development demonstration zone will be prioritized [1][6] - A national digital trade demonstration zone will be initiated, along with the formulation of relevant standards for digital trade to promote the digital transformation of service outsourcing [1][6] Group 2: Consumption Promotion - The optimization of the old-for-new consumption policy will be implemented to stimulate the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [2][5] - Pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption will be conducted to further unleash the potential of automobile consumption [2][5] - The service consumption quality improvement initiative will continue, focusing on enhancing the supply levels in cultural entertainment, tourism, and healthcare sectors [2][5] Group 3: Investment Expansion - The government plans to gradually open up sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to foreign investment [7] - A national-level overseas comprehensive service platform will be established to support foreign investors and facilitate their participation in various economic activities [8] Group 4: International Trade Cooperation - The government aims to sign free trade agreements with more willing countries and establish trade facilitation working groups to enhance international economic cooperation [6][7] - The focus will be on expanding self-trade cooperation with countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Switzerland, South Korea, and others [7]

Group 1: Economic Growth Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and has also upgraded the 2026 growth expectations [1] - Multiple international financial institutions have similarly increased their growth forecasts for China, indicating a resilient economic performance among major global economies [1] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China predicts a more balanced economic growth driver in 2026, with consumption being further activated, investment contributions rebounding, and exports expected to maintain growth [1] Group 2: Export Resilience - In 2025, China's goods trade is projected to grow rapidly, with total foreign trade reaching 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, and exports at 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1% [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's exports will continue to be a core driver of economic growth, with nominal export growth expected to rise by 5% to 6% annually in the coming years [2] - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to strong competitiveness, dominance in rare earth and key mineral sectors, and growth potential in high-tech exports driven by policy support and global AI-related capital expenditure cycles [2] Group 3: Consumer Spending Trends - Domestic consumption recovery and upgrade are becoming significant supports for China's economic growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a stable consumer growth rate of around 4.5% this year [3] - Service consumption is expected to outpace goods consumption growth in 2026, driven by policy emphasis on service sector development and the potential for a virtuous cycle of employment and income growth [3][4] - The shift in consumer spending from goods to services is evident, with households increasingly willing to spend on leisure, dining, and lifestyle experiences [4] Group 4: Investment Focus - Investment is seen as a crucial lever for stabilizing growth, with key sectors becoming focal points for future growth opportunities [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a rebound in fixed capital formation growth to 3.5% in 2026, targeting high-tech, strategic emerging industries, urban renewal, and basic livelihood infrastructure [5] - Traditional industries are expected to undergo digital and intelligent upgrades, with significant potential in sectors like brain-computer interfaces and robotics, although they are still in early stages [5][6]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show strong overall performance with a projected real GDP annual growth rate of 5.3% by Q4 2025, driven by service consumption, intellectual property investment, and exports [2] - The CPI inflation rate for December 2025 is reported at 2.7%, aligning with market expectations, while core CPI inflation is slightly lower at 2.6%, indicating a trend towards inflation differentiation [2] - The labor market is stabilizing, with initial jobless claims at 198,000, suggesting that the unemployment cycle may have peaked [3] Group 2: Financial Markets - US Treasury yields are expected to face short-term pressure due to potential tariff increases by Trump, but the long-term trend remains downward as the interest rate cycle continues [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines of 0.4% and 0.7% respectively, primarily due to persistent inflation concerns impacting high-valuation tech stocks [3] - The dollar is in a mixed state, supported by resilient employment and retail data, but facing potential credit concerns due to renewed tariff threats [4] Group 3: Chinese Economic Insights - Domestic housing transactions remain low, with new home sales down 41.5% and second-hand home sales down 18.6% in major cities [7] - Export activity shows signs of recovery, with a 3.1% increase in cargo throughput and a 5.5% rebound in container throughput, indicating a positive trend in mechanical and automotive exports [7] - Corporate financing is improving, with a year-on-year increase of 580 billion in corporate loans, contributing to a stable credit growth rate of 6.4% [8] Group 4: Policy and Market Strategies - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption through various initiatives, including a new round of subsidies for consumer goods [9] - The bond market is experiencing slight recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.84%, and expectations of continued support from monetary policy [10] - The A-share market is expected to slow down after a significant rally, with a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors as key growth drivers [11]

居民当下和预期收入的增长是提振消费、扩大内需的关键动力。 坚持内需主导、建设强大国内市场，是中央经济工作会议明确的今年经济工作的首要任务。新年以来的 两场国务院常务会议（下称"国常会"），都在聚焦扩内需，政策组合拳不断加力。 1月16日召开的国常会，听取提振消费专项行动进展情况汇报并研究加快培育服务消费新增长点等促消 费举措。会议强调，完善促消费长效机制，制定和实施好扩大消费"十五五"规划、城乡居民增收计划， 加快建设强大国内市场。 此前1月9日召开的国常会，部署了实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策，强调加强财政政策与金融政策 配合联动，充分发挥政策效应，引导社会资本参与促消费、扩投资。 国家发改委、央行、财政部、商务部、民政部等部门近期对促消费扩内需、稳就业促增收作出了一系列 部署，把短期政策和中长期结构性改革结合起来，不断增强中国经济增长的内生动能。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明对第一财经记者分析，政策核心在于构建消费内生增长机制，将"十五 五"消费规划与增收计划联动，标志着政策从短期刺激转向系统性制度安排。清理不合理限制和落实带 薪休假，直击消费能力和时间约束两大瓶颈，触及劳动力市场制度变革。这种消费与产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing service consumption alongside goods consumption as the economy develops and living standards improve [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Focus - The Ministry of Commerce will concentrate on key areas such as transportation, housekeeping, performances, and sports events to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [1] - A range of new business models and fast-growing service consumption sectors will be identified, with efforts to improve supportive policies and eliminate unreasonable restrictions [1] - Events like "Service Consumption Season" and "Chinese Food Festival" will be organized to guide localities in developing distinctive service consumption brands in sports, performing arts, tourism, and winter sports [1] Group 2: Consumption Policies - The government will optimize the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods, focusing on new tracks and offline entities [1] - By 2026, the old-for-new policy will support green and smart product consumption more vigorously, with requirements for home appliances to meet first-level energy efficiency or water efficiency standards [1] - New purchase subsidies will include smart devices such as smartwatches and smart glasses [1]

Group 1 - The national business conference held on January 10-11 outlined eight key tasks for the national business system by 2026, focusing on consumption, market systems, trade innovation, foreign investment, international trade rules, foreign investment management, bilateral trade cooperation, and security in openness [1] - The conference emphasized the implementation of a special action to boost consumption, aiming to create the "Buy in China" brand, enhance service consumption, and optimize policies for upgrading consumer goods [1] - The goal is to develop a modern market and circulation system, promoting a unified national market and advancing the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1] Group 2 - Trade innovation will be promoted through the "Export China" brand, with a focus on optimizing goods trade, developing service trade, and encouraging digital and green trade [2] - The strategy includes enhancing foreign investment attractiveness by expanding service sector openness and improving investment promotion and service systems [2] - Effective foreign investment management will involve guiding cross-border supply chain layouts and enhancing overseas service systems, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3 - The conference aims to deepen multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation, implement global initiatives, and reform global economic governance [2] - There is a focus on risk prevention and establishing a robust security network for openness, including improving legal frameworks and trade risk management [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic markets as primary tasks for 2026 [3][4]. Group 1: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth reached 71% in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force [3]. - A series of policies aimed at stimulating consumption, particularly through "trade-in" programs, have led to significant sales increases, with over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales generated from these initiatives from January to November 2025 [4]. - Service consumption has seen a notable increase, with per capita spending on services rising to 46.8% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift towards sectors like tourism and elderly care [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, but investment in key sectors remains robust, with project investment growing by 0.8% when excluding real estate [7]. - The government plans to stabilize investment by increasing central budget investments and optimizing the use of local government bonds, focusing on urban renewal and public infrastructure [8]. - Investment policies in 2026 are expected to target four main areas: "two重" project construction, new productivity sectors, urban renewal, and enhancing the environment for private investment [8].