分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 总量有压力，降息空间正在打开 ——10 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 10 月经济数据增速在高基数下总体放缓，供需两端同步走弱，工业、投资、消费及出口增 长均减速，汽车、家用电器类商品零售走弱。新旧动能转换持续，服务消费和高端制造保持韧 性，经济修复呈现"传统承压、新兴支撑"特征。量价表现出现背离，后续或难以对工业品价 格形成持续拉动，若"量能"进一步放缓，价格实际改善力度及持续性可能有限。降息窗口预 计在今年四季度至明年一季度打开，我们建议与其博弈降息时点，不如抓住落地前的抢跑机会。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 总量有压力，降息空间正在打开 2] ——10 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今年 10 月经济数据总体承压，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 4.9%，前值为 ...

当然，物价指数在10月所出现的积极变化，在一定程度上具有季节性的因素，另外，只是凭借一个月的 数字，对形成趋势性判断还是不够的。尽管一些数据显现出了向好的迹象，但绝对值并不高，表明需求 与生产的修复仍然处于初期，部分数据随着内外部形势的变化，还有可能出现反复。但物价状况在改善 已经是不争的事实，而且这些数据也为今年最后两个月财政与货币政策的双双发力提供了一定的空间。 因此，有理由认为在随后的一段时间内，市场信心增强、实体经济改善是必然的。 自去年"9.24"以来，大盘出现了震荡上行的态势，现在4000点徘徊。对这波行情，不少人认为是资金驱 动的结果，与资本市场流动性好转有关。如果仅仅因为流入的资金多而股市上涨，那么这种上涨是缺乏 基础的，即便再赋予一些题材，也不可能走得太远，因为股市上行的基础是上市公司业绩。上市公司业 绩不好，股市越上涨风险就越大。而当投资者看到10月物价指数时，也许还能够想象到企业经营在慢慢 好转，走出通缩阴影后公司的盈利也将逐步回升，这无疑会给股市以正面的推动，大盘从资金牛向资金 与业绩叠加牛的过渡，也许就不是太遥远的事情。 先看CPI，9月CPI同比下降0.3%。古语云"谷贱伤农"，物 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth and Projections - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic growth, with a projected GDP target of around 5% for 2026, aligning with a potential annual growth rate of 4.17% needed to meet the 2035 goals[3][10][14] - The potential economic growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.8% and 5.0%[12][14] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to stimulate consumption, benefiting service consumption and upgrades in rural and lower-tier cities[3][21] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, enhancing high-quality service provision is crucial to unlocking service consumption potential, with a service trade restrictiveness index (STRI) of 0.225, higher than the OECD average of 0.19[4][46] - The manufacturing sector is expected to address excess capacity through "anti-involution" measures, with an estimated industrial added value of approximately 5 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.8% of industrial enterprises[4][54] - The demand side anticipates limited recovery in fixed asset investment, with infrastructure investment growth expected to remain stable[5][24] Group 3: External and Internal Demand - External demand is projected to remain stable, with U.S. exports expected to grow by around 2% year-on-year in 2026, supported by stable consumption growth and AI investments[5][61] - Domestic consumption is anticipated to shift towards service consumption, with service consumption expected to account for 46.1% of total household consumption by 2024[25][29] - The government aims to enhance public service spending to boost residents' consumption capacity, particularly in the context of common prosperity[32][29] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policies - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic stability[7][7] - The fiscal policy is projected to become more proactive, with a potential increase in the deficit ratio to 4.2% and an expansion of the broad deficit by approximately 1.7 trillion yuan[7][7] - The government plans to optimize tax structures and improve the relationship between central and local finances to enhance fiscal sustainability[7][7] Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Key risks include domestic policies falling short of expectations, potential overperformance of the U.S. economy, and the possibility of renewed trade tensions[7][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, with bond market offense favoring 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield to reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield to move towards 1.9% [3]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, China's economy showed resilience in a complex environment, with a GDP year - on - year growth rate of 4.8%, reflecting the phased pressure during the transformation from old to new growth drivers. Service consumption growth, manufacturing upgrading, and export resilience supported economic structural optimization, while negative fixed - asset investment growth and the continuous decline of real estate development investment highlighted the weakness of the traditional growth model. In Q4, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be key support measures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Aggregate - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience under double pressure, with GDP growing 5.2% year - on - year. In Q3, GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from Q2. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 5.8 trillion yuan, 36.4 trillion yuan, and 59.3 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%. The nominal GDP year - on - year growth rate dropped to 3.7% in Q3, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from Q2, and the divergence between nominal and real GDP growth continued [2]. 2. Price - The GDP deflator has been negative for 10 consecutive quarters. In the first three quarters, CPI decreased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, with core CPI performing well at a 0.6% year - on - year increase. In September, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for five consecutive months, the first time in 19 months to reach 1%. PPI decreased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the year - on - year decline has been narrowing in the past two months, with the decline in September narrowing to 2.3%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and the month - on - month rate remaining flat [2]. 3. Consumption - In Q3, consumption growth continued to decline, and social retail sales in Q4 may continue to face pressure, while service consumption remained outstanding. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.2 trillion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has declined for four consecutive months. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January to August. Service retail sales maintained a year - on - year growth rate of over 5% since March 2025. In Q4 2025, consumption growth may face a high year - on - year base and continue to be under pressure [2]. 4. Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for six consecutive months, with cumulative year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 1992 (excluding 2020). The decline in real estate development investment has expanded for seven consecutive months, being only slightly better than the extreme value in January - February 2020. Private investment has been negative for four consecutive months. Against the backdrop of local debt resolution and low general public budget revenue growth, the driving effect of infrastructure on the economy may continue to weaken, and the drag of real estate on the economy may persist [2][3]. 5. Exports - The year - on - year growth rate of exports exceeded expectations, possibly due to the low base in September last year. In the first three quarters, the total value of goods imports and exports was 33.6 trillion yuan, a 4.0% year - on - year increase. Exports increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. In September, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 4.0 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase. However, due to the possible increase in Sino - US trade frictions and high export growth rates in October and December 2024, there may still be pressure on foreign trade in Q4 [2][3]. 6. Industrial Added Value - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 6.2%, the same as that from January to August and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, it increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August and a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from September last year [2]. 7. Economic Outlook - In Q4, the downward pressure on the economy may increase. The use of policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may become more likely, and continuous attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [3]. 8. Bond Market - In September, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October, and recommends 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield will move towards 1.9% [3].

Core Viewpoint - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, consumption has become a crucial driver of China's economic growth, contributing over 50% to GDP growth, with expectations for final consumption expenditure to account for approximately 55% of GDP in 2024 [1][2] Consumption Contribution to Economic Growth - Final consumption expenditure's contribution to GDP growth has stabilized between 55% and 60%, significantly surpassing investment and net exports, establishing it as the primary driving force of the economy [2] - In 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach 48.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase from the previous year, with service retail sales growing at a remarkable rate of 6.2% [2] - The shift from "material consumption" to "service consumption" indicates a profound transformation in consumption structure, with service consumption becoming a key marker of consumption upgrading [2] Changes in Consumption Structure - Service consumption has seen a notable increase, with significant growth in expenditures on education, healthcare, culture, and tourism [3] - Health and safety expenditures are rising, with per capita healthcare spending increasing by 1.3% in 2024 [3] - The emergence of intelligent and green consumption is evident, with new energy vehicle production increasing by 38.7% in 2024 [3] - There is a growing awareness of long-term value in consumption, with per capita service consumption expenditure reaching 46.1% of total consumption in 2024 [3] Consumer Behavior and Expectations - Consumers are increasingly seeking higher quality of life and personal development, shifting from short-term satisfaction to long-term value [4] - There is a heightened demand for transparency, fairness, and safety in transactions, with consumers expecting better protection of their rights [4][5] Policy Recommendations for Future Consumption Growth - The government should focus on solidifying employment and income foundations, enhancing social security systems, and optimizing the business environment to stabilize expectations and boost consumer confidence [6][7] - Policies should aim to break down structural barriers, enhance consumer rights protection, and improve regulatory efficiency to facilitate consumption [8][9] - Emphasis on expanding service consumption and optimizing supply-demand coordination is essential for future growth [9][10] Overall Economic Outlook - The consumption market in China has significant potential for growth, but structural challenges remain, such as high savings rates and the need to enhance consumer motivation [6][10] - The transition from high savings to high consumption is crucial for creating a virtuous cycle that supports long-term economic stability [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the "Fifteen Five" planning period in China, focusing on economic growth, investment opportunities, and industry development. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Targets**: The "Fifteen Five" plan is expected to set clear economic growth targets between 4.6% and 4.8% to address internal and external uncertainties, following the policy directions established in the 20th National Congress and the Third Plenary Session [4][1][2]. 2. **Expansion of Domestic Demand**: The main line of the "Fifteen Five" plan is to expand domestic demand by increasing disposable income and creating consumption scenarios, with a focus on supporting service consumption and reducing consumption restrictions [5][1][2]. 3. **Investment Focus**: The plan emphasizes a combination of investments in physical assets and human capital, increasing infrastructure and livelihood investments, and identifying high-efficiency projects to address declining marginal returns [6][1][2]. 4. **Industry Development**: The development of new productive forces will be tailored to local conditions, enhancing total factor productivity across traditional, emerging, and future industries [7][1][2]. 5. **High-Level Security**: The plan will focus on high-level security in finance, supply chains, food and energy, and military sectors, promoting high-quality development through effective governance [8][1][2]. 6. **Economic Structure Shift**: The economic structure is expected to shift from manufacturing to services, with an increase in the proportion of service enterprises in the A-share market leading to a rise in overall market valuation [9][10][1][2]. 7. **Carbon Emission Control Policies**: The dual control policy on carbon emissions will transition to a focus on intensity control, complemented by total control, enhancing the national carbon trading market and establishing product carbon footprint management systems [11][1][2]. 8. **Fiscal and Tax Reforms**: Key reforms include improving the budget system, shifting consumption tax collection to local levels, and increasing local non-tax revenue management authority, which will incentivize local governments to enhance the consumption environment [12][1][2]. 9. **Land System Reforms**: The reforms aim to activate the secondary market for construction land and improve land use efficiency, addressing mismatches in land resources and promoting middle and low-end consumption through increased farmers' property income [13][14][1][2]. 10. **Anti-Competition Policies**: The plan will implement anti-involution policies to address irrational and disorderly competition, focusing on sustainable operations and optimizing industry structures [15][16][1][2]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Investment Opportunities**: Short-term investment opportunities include infrastructure projects, advanced manufacturing, defense spending, RMB internationalization, and green low-carbon sectors [19][1][2]. 2. **Long-Term Investment Lines**: The main lines of the "Fifteen Five" plan include expanding domestic demand, developing new productive forces, ensuring safety, promoting reform and opening up, and achieving green dual carbon goals [20][1][2]. 3. **Service Consumption Growth**: Service consumption is projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase of nearly 20 trillion yuan by 2030, accounting for 52% of total demand [21][20][1][2]. 4. **Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Prospects**: The photovoltaic and energy storage sectors are expected to see significant growth due to supply-demand improvements and the push for carbon peak requirements by 2030 [22][1][2].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade program, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [1] - From January to August this year, 330 million people applied for the consumption upgrade subsidies, leading to sales exceeding 2 trillion yuan, with significant year-on-year retail growth in various consumer goods categories [1] - The policy of replacing old products with new ones has positively impacted consumer spending, reflecting strong public support for government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024 emphasized the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand [2] - The government work report for 2025 highlighted the importance of consumer spending in driving economic growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52.3% to economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 [2] - A set of 19 measures was introduced by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments to stimulate service consumption, focusing on fiscal support and supply optimization [2] Group 3 - The recent measures coincide with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, aiming to enhance service consumption through various promotional activities and the development of new consumption scenarios [3] - The measures encourage the extension of operating hours for popular cultural and tourist venues and the introduction of international sports events to enhance consumer experiences [3] Group 4 - There is a shift in consumer preferences towards experiential travel rather than traditional sightseeing, necessitating improvements in both infrastructure and service quality in the tourism sector [4] - The measures also address the growing trend of family travel during holidays, proposing adjustments to school holiday schedules to facilitate more travel opportunities [4] Group 5 - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival are seen as opportunities to showcase the ongoing efforts to boost consumption and the transformation of the cultural and tourism industry [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of industrial structure adjustment in China's 14th and upcoming 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing the shift from focusing on the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment [3][5][28]. Group 1: Industrial Structure Adjustment in Five-Year Plans - Industrial structure adjustment is a crucial component of China's Five-Year Plans, serving as a key means to achieve core objectives [3][16]. - The focus of industrial structure adjustment has evolved from the ratio of the three industries to a greater emphasis on technological innovation and R&D investment [5][28]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan has introduced specific targets for R&D expenditure and digital economy core industries, reflecting a shift towards more refined and precise planning [5][28]. Group 2: Trends in Industrial Structure Adjustment - The direction of industrial structure adjustment has transitioned from emphasizing the three industries' ratios to focusing on technological innovation [5][28]. - The importance of the service sector has increased, with a notable shift from finance and real estate to information technology and production services [6][47]. - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to continue supporting technological innovation and address issues such as supply-demand mismatches and "involution" in the manufacturing sector [7][8][22]. Group 3: Key Areas of Focus in the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan is likely to prioritize emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, marine economy, and commercial aerospace [7][22]. - There is an anticipated increase in the emphasis on service industry development, particularly in enhancing service consumption and trade [8][26]. - The plan may also focus on improving the quality and efficiency of service industries, aligning with the broader economic development goals [8][49].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released 19 measures to expand service consumption, focusing on high-quality service supply and promoting consumption activities [1] - In August, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 0.3% decline, indicating a continued adjustment in the real estate market with some signs of marginal improvement [1] - Local state-owned capital merger funds are emerging rapidly, aligning with national strategic directions to promote industrial upgrades and regional transformations [2] Group 2 - The recent reform of fund fee structures may impact short-term bond funds, prompting wealth management companies to explore alternative strategies such as direct bond trading and investing in bond ETFs [2] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months, with expectations of further cuts due to rising unemployment risks [3] - SoftBank plans to lay off nearly 20% of its Vision Fund team, reallocating resources towards AI initiatives, including a $500 billion Stargate project [3] Group 3 - Global stock markets mostly rose in the past week, with notable gains in the Chinese market, while U.S. indices also showed positive performance [6] - The bond market exhibited mixed results, with varying movements in yields across different maturities, reflecting a complex economic environment [7] - Recent trends in the commodity market showed a slight decline in oil prices, while gold and silver prices increased [12] Group 4 - The bank wealth management market is dominated by fixed-income products, with a significant preference for low-risk investments, reflecting current market conditions [12] - The issuance of new wealth management products has been led by bank wealth management subsidiaries, indicating their strong market position [12] - The overall performance of bank wealth management products has been supported by low inflation rates and a favorable regulatory environment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies issued by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments aim to expand service consumption as a crucial support for improving people's livelihoods and a key direction for consumption transformation and upgrading [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Highlights - The policy measures are characterized by "three persistences": combining benefits for people's livelihoods with promoting consumption, optimizing supply while stimulating demand, and balancing openness to foreign markets with domestic liberalization [2]. - Specific measures include accelerating the establishment of long-term care insurance, increasing the supply of quality resources in cultural tourism and sports, and expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education [2][3]. Group 2: Actions to Promote Service Consumption - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, increase the supply of high-skilled service talents, and eliminate market access barriers to enrich high-quality service offerings [3]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism plans to organize multiple exhibitions, implement actions to revitalize tourism attractions, and promote the development of emerging economies such as the first-release economy, ice and snow economy, and fashion economy [3]. - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to guide financial institutions in increasing credit investment in key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption remains a significant source of trade deficit in services, necessitating the optimization of visa exemption policies and support for enhancing the convenience of inbound tourism, medical care, and study [4]. - As the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will launch quality products, special activities, and promotional measures, including a nationwide cultural tourism consumption month with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [4].