特约评论员 熊夏柠 近日，国家发展改革委已会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以 旧换新资金，至此，全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。 数据显示，今年1~8月，全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴，带动相关商品销售额超过2万亿 元；限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长 28.4%、22.3%、22.0%、21.1%，支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 可见，以旧换新对提振我国消费起到了非常积极的作用，以旧换新政策也是国家真金白银地支持消费、 扩大消费的重要举措。并且，政策实施的具体实践显示，民众对这项着力扩大消费的政策反响良好，反 应强烈。 党的二十大报告指出，要着力扩大内需，增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关 键作用。 2024年12月召开的中央经济工作会议提出，大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。 2025年的政府工作报告指出，要强化宏观政策民生导向。坚持以人民为中心，经济政策的着力点更多转 向惠民生、促消费，以消费提振畅通经济循环，以消费升级引领产业升级，在保障和改善民生中打造新 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 近期，中央财经委会议、国务院第十五次专题学习等事关产业结构调整的会议密集召开，或为 "十五五" 规划先导。以往五年规划的产业调整路径是什么，"十 五五"规划又将如何推进？系统分析，供参考。 一、产业结构调整是我国五年规划的重要内容，"十五"至"十四五"均明确了详细的产业结构调整目标。 国民经济和社会发展五年规划为国民经济与社会发展的远景设定目标、指明方向，会针对经济、改革、社会发展等领域制定具体规划。 例如，"十三五"规划的 主要目标分为七个部分：经济、创新、发展协调性、民生、社会文明、生态环境、制度建设；"十四五"规划则将经济、创新与发展协调性的目标整合为"经济 发展取得新成效"，并进一步强化了对改革与国家治理能力的重视。 从五年规划的目标设定与实施逻辑来看，产业结构调整不仅是规划的重要组成部分，更是实现核心目标的"关键手段"。 从"十五"计划到"十三五"规划，产业结 构调整均设有明确量化指标，如"十一五"和"十二五"规划分别要求提高服务业增加值占比3个和4个百分点；自"十三五"规划起，政策重心转向先进制造业发 展，到"十四五"规划时，更细化了研发经费 ...

1. 商务部等九部门发布扩大服务消费19条举措。 商务部等九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，提出五方 面19条举措，其中8项与"高品质服务供给"有关。文件提出，开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动；支持优质消费资源与知 名IP跨界合作；扩大电信、医疗、教育等领域开放试点；有序扩大单方面免签国家范围；优化学生假期安排，完善配套政 策等。文件还首次提出开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点城市建设。 2. 中国8月70城房价出炉，一线城市新房价格环比降幅收窄。 中国8月70城房价数据显示，一线城市新房价格环比下降0.1%，二线城市 新房环比下降0.3%，降幅均较上月收窄0.1个百分点。二手房方面，一线城市二手房价格环比降幅持平于1%，二线城市降幅扩大0.1个 百分点至0.6%，当月仅有长春1城房价环比上涨。这表明房地产市场仍处于调整阶段，但部分指标出现边际改善迹象。 3. 地方国资并购基金"潮涌"，加速赋能产业升级。 在政策暖风的吹拂下，地方国资并购基金设立呈现"潮涌"之势。今年以来，已有上 海、深圳、福建、浙江等地纷纷宣布拟设或已设国资并购基金。地方国资并购基金的兴起，契合国家战略导向。随着"并购六条"等政 策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies issued by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments aim to expand service consumption as a crucial support for improving people's livelihoods and a key direction for consumption transformation and upgrading [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Highlights - The policy measures are characterized by "three persistences": combining benefits for people's livelihoods with promoting consumption, optimizing supply while stimulating demand, and balancing openness to foreign markets with domestic liberalization [2]. - Specific measures include accelerating the establishment of long-term care insurance, increasing the supply of quality resources in cultural tourism and sports, and expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education [2][3]. Group 2: Actions to Promote Service Consumption - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, increase the supply of high-skilled service talents, and eliminate market access barriers to enrich high-quality service offerings [3]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism plans to organize multiple exhibitions, implement actions to revitalize tourism attractions, and promote the development of emerging economies such as the first-release economy, ice and snow economy, and fashion economy [3]. - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to guide financial institutions in increasing credit investment in key areas of service consumption and the elderly care industry [3]. Group 3: Enhancing Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption remains a significant source of trade deficit in services, necessitating the optimization of visa exemption policies and support for enhancing the convenience of inbound tourism, medical care, and study [4]. - As the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival approach, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will launch quality products, special activities, and promotional measures, including a nationwide cultural tourism consumption month with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of service consumption in improving people's livelihoods and driving the transformation and upgrading of consumption [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have released policies aimed at expanding service consumption, highlighting three main principles: combining benefits for people's livelihoods with promoting consumption, optimizing supply while stimulating demand, and balancing openness to foreign markets with domestic market liberalization [3] - Specific measures include accelerating the establishment of long-term care insurance, increasing the supply of quality resources in cultural tourism and sports, and expanding pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education [3] Group 2 - Multiple departments are focusing on enhancing high-quality service supply and expanding consumer demand to strengthen service consumption [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission will promote the application of artificial intelligence in service consumption, increase the supply of skilled service personnel, and eliminate market entry barriers while supporting projects in elder care, childcare, and cultural tourism [7] - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elder care relending program to guide financial institutions in increasing credit support for key areas of service consumption and the elder care industry [7] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce plans to promote high-quality development of service consumption through various initiatives, including policy issuance, fostering integrated consumption scenarios, and guiding local events [11] - There is a significant trade deficit in service consumption from inbound tourism, prompting the need to optimize visa policies and enhance the convenience of inbound consumption for tourism, healthcare, and education [11] - In anticipation of the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will launch quality products, special activities, and discount measures, including a nationwide consumption month with over 330 million yuan in subsidies [11]

商务部会同国家发展改革委、文化和旅游部、中国人民银行等9部门近日印发《关于扩大服务消费的若 干政策措施》。9月17日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍扩大服务消费有关政策措施。 今年以来，一系列政策措施助推入境消费潜力不断释放。上半年，各口岸入境外国人超1900万人次，同 比增长30%，其中免签入境1364万人次，同比增长54%。截至8月底，全国离境退税商店超1万家，是 2024年底的3倍；1至8月，享受离境退税人数同比增长248%，退税销售额增长98%。商务部将与相关部 门一道，加强统筹协调和政策支持，不断丰富高品质消费供给，开展国际化消费环境建设，持续打造多 元化消费场景，推动扩大入境消费。 "服务消费一头连着经济、一头连着民生，具有消费频次高、乘数效应强、增长可持续等方面特点。"商 务部服务贸易和商贸服务业司司长孔德军说，围绕建立服务消费"1+N"政策体系，相关部门已出台30多 项政策文件。接下来还会出台住宿业高质量发展、铁路与旅游融合发展等系列政策文件，形成政策"组 合拳"。 此外，商务部还将指导地方举办美食荟、旅游季、展演季、养老月、时尚周等形式新颖、特色鲜明、丰 富多样的活动，积极培育服务消费新热 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption, which is seen as a crucial driver for economic growth and improving living standards [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy measures focus on addressing bottlenecks in service consumption development, emphasizing the combination of improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1]. - Initiatives include creating high-profile sports events, expanding long-term care insurance, and supporting early childhood education to enhance service consumption [1]. - The measures aim to optimize supply and stimulate demand by promoting new consumption models and enhancing consumer credit support [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the first half of the year, over 19 million foreign visitors entered China, marking a 30% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in tax refund sales [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce has coordinated with various departments to enhance high-quality consumption supply and develop diverse consumption scenarios [3]. - A "1+N" policy system has been established, with over 30 policy documents released to support service consumption [3]. Group 3: Service Quality Improvement - The government aims to enhance service supply quality by promoting innovation and integrating various consumption sectors [4]. - Initiatives include the establishment of training bases for high-skilled service personnel and implementing a credit system to ensure consumer trust [4]. - The focus is on creating a favorable market environment by removing entry barriers for businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [5]. Group 4: Financial Support - The People's Bank of China has allocated 500 billion yuan for service consumption and elderly care refinancing, encouraging financial institutions to increase lending in key service sectors [5]. - As of July, the loan balance in key service consumption areas reached 2.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year growth [5].

风险 地缘政治风险（能源板块上行风险）；全球经济超预期下行（风险资产下行风险）；美联储超预期收紧（风险资产 下行风险）；海外流动性风险冲击（风险资产下行风险）。 FICC日报 | 2025-09-17 美国8月零售销售意外强劲，关注美联储利率决议 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。国内8月外部压力边际增加，一是中国8月出口有所转弱，尤其是对美出口，但非美出口的韧 性也对后续出口提供支撑；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，墨西哥拟对贸易伙伴加征关税，据英国《金融时 报》和路透社披露，特朗普鼓动欧盟对中国和印度加征"二级关税"；为了应对边际增加的外部压力，国内近期频 提稳增长政策。9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"；发改委也表 示"不断释放内需潜力""推进重点行业产能治理"。关注后续更具体的政策内容。商务部等9部门印发《关于扩大服 务消费的若干政策措施》，提出扩大服务业高水平对外开放，推动互联网、文化等领域有序开放，扩大电信、医疗、 教育等领域开放试点。商务部决定自2025年9月13日起对原产于美国的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立案调查。中 美双方在西班牙马德里举行经贸会谈，就以 ...

服务消费是促进民生改善的重要支撑，也是消费转型升级的重要方向，在推动经济高质量发展中发挥重 要作用。为贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，更大力度提振消费、扩大内需，提出以下措施。 1 培育服务消费促进平台 (一)实施服务消费提质惠民行动。印发《服务消费提质惠民行动工作方案》，从加强政策支持、搭建平 台载体、扩大对外开放、强化标准引领、优化消费环境等方面提出工作举措。持续深化"购在中国"品牌 打造，开展"服务消费季"系列促消费活动，围绕贴近群众生活、需求潜力大、带动作用强的重点领域开 展服务消费促进活动，培育服务消费品牌，打造服务消费热点。(商务部牵头) (六)鼓励引进国外优秀体育赛事，支持地方举办大众体育赛事，打造一批具有较高知名度的精品赛事、 职业联赛以及具有自主知识产权的体育竞赛表演品牌。持续开展"跟着赛事去旅行""体育赛事进景区、 进街区、进商圈""乐享精彩赛事 寻味中华美食"等活动，发挥体育赛事和相关活动带动效应。(商务、文 化和旅游、体育主管部门按职责分工负责) (七)培育多元化教育和培训市场。规范发展文化艺术、科技、体育类非学科教育培训，完善许可条件， 符合条件的线上、线下非学科类培训机构可依法依规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics will release key economic data for August, focusing on various sectors including agriculture, industry, and services, as well as important indicators like consumption, investment, and employment [3][4]. Economic Data Release - The press conference will provide a report card on China's economic performance for August, including growth figures for agriculture, industry, and services [3]. - Industrial data will highlight the performance of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, which are crucial for reflecting industrial optimization and new productivity [3]. Consumption and Investment Focus - Expanding domestic demand is a key focus for this year, making consumption data, such as retail sales and service consumption, particularly noteworthy [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will also discuss fixed asset investment, manufacturing investment, and private investment growth [3]. Employment and Price Indicators - Indicators like consumer price levels and employment conditions are critical as they relate to economic trends and the financial well-being of citizens [3]. - The current global economic environment presents challenges, including geopolitical risks and domestic constraints on expanding domestic demand [3]. Economic Outlook - Based on data from the first eight months, the National Bureau of Statistics will provide forecasts for the economic trends in the second half of the year [4].