出口吞吐维持韧性，价格走势分化 华泰研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 张继强 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 证券研究报告 固收视角 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 8 月第三周，外需方面，吞吐量同比维持高位，但运价整体偏弱运行，且跌幅有所走阔。地产方面，新房成交基本持 平，二手房热度有所回落，两者同比延续负增，销售中枢不及前期，房价有待企稳，土地溢价率有所上行。生产端来 看，工业方面，货运量表现较好，煤炭价格继续上涨，生产维持韧性分化，焦化、地炼略有上行，纺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting consumption, particularly in the service sector, as a key economic strategy to adapt to changing consumer behavior and external uncertainties [1][3][5]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - In June, the People's Bank of China and other ministries issued guidelines to support consumption, emphasizing service consumption in areas like home services, elderly care, and cultural tourism [1]. - A new policy was introduced to provide 500 billion yuan in loans aimed at enhancing service consumption and supporting the elderly care sector, effective until the end of 2027 [9]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In the first five months of 2024, retail sales of goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, while service retail sales showed a slower growth of 5.2%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [1][3]. - The average per capita service consumption expenditure in China is projected to reach 13,000 yuan in 2024, translating to a total service consumption expenditure of 18.3 trillion yuan nationwide [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Analysts suggest that as the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption subsidy policy diminishes, service consumption will become the primary driver for consumption growth in the latter half of the year [3]. - China's per capita GDP has surpassed 13,000 USD, indicating a transition towards a service-oriented consumption structure, similar to trends observed in developed countries [5][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth in service consumption, there remains a significant gap compared to developed nations, with service consumption accounting for only 45.2% of total consumption in China, compared to 54.3% in the US and South Korea [6]. - Factors limiting service consumption include disposable income levels and social security systems, suggesting that improvements in these areas could enhance consumer confidence and spending [7][8]. Group 5: Recommendations for Growth - Analysts recommend increasing disposable income through job creation and enhancing social security, such as raising pension benefits, to stimulate service consumption [7]. - There is a call for targeted policies, such as consumption vouchers and subsidies, to specifically encourage service consumption, which is currently lagging behind goods consumption [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has prioritized consumption as a key task for economic recovery, with new policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending and financial support for various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - A joint guideline issued by six government departments outlines 19 key measures to support and expand consumption, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension relending program [2][4]. - The guideline emphasizes a comprehensive financial support framework for consumption, moving away from fragmented policies to a more systematic approach [3][4]. - Specific financial support will be provided for three main areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types, with tailored measures for each sector [5][6]. Group 2: Focus on Service Consumption - The guideline highlights the importance of service consumption, proposing increased credit support for key service sectors such as retail, hospitality, and elder care [5][6]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop personalized financial products and services tailored to the characteristics of service consumption [6]. - The document also calls for enhanced support for new consumption models, including digital, green, and health-related consumption [6]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Recent policies aimed at improving social security and raising minimum wage standards are seen as crucial for boosting consumer spending from the income side [7][8]. - Experts suggest that increasing employment and income, along with creating more consumption scenarios, are essential for stimulating demand [7][8]. - The development of the service sector is highlighted as a key driver for job creation and income growth, addressing the disparity between economic growth and individual income perception [8].

Group 1: Policy Changes - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost and expand consumption, highlighting three key changes in consumption policy[3] - The focus is shifting from goods consumption to service consumption, with increased emphasis on supporting service sectors[10] - The guidelines support the listing of quality consumption enterprises, indicating a dual shift in financing and income expansion policies[26] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In May, retail sales of goods grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service production index showed a weaker growth of 6.2%[12] - Urban residents' per capita annual property income grew by only 2.9% in 2023, significantly lower than the 8.7% compound growth from 2015 to 2021[24] - The guidelines propose a new 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care relending program to enhance service consumption infrastructure[18] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Uncertainties in consumer expectations may affect the effectiveness of consumption policies[5] - The overseas economic environment could influence the pace of policy implementation, given the complexities in global markets[31] - The ability of capital markets to sustainably increase residents' income remains uncertain, with potential volatility in market performance[31]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have jointly released 19 key measures to support and expand consumption, providing a clear "roadmap" for financial support in the consumption sector [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The 19 measures focus on enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption sectors, tapping into residents' consumption potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, and optimizing the consumption environment and policy support [1][2]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate and optimize credit products, increasing support for eligible consumption industry entities through first loans, renewals, credit loans, and medium to long-term loans [1][2]. Group 2: Targeted Financial Support Areas - The guidance emphasizes increasing credit allocation to wholesale and retail, catering and accommodation, domestic services, and elderly care sectors [2][3]. - It aims to support the recycling of scrapped vehicles, old household appliances, and home renovation projects, as well as enhance credit support for essential goods supply-related enterprises [2][3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Support - Financial support extends to consumption infrastructure construction, including cultural tourism, sports facilities, and healthcare services, as well as logistics, warehousing, and supply chain projects [3]. - The measures also include incentives for financial institutions to issue bonds and provide low-cost funding to enhance the consumption supply chain [3]. Group 4: Systematic Approach to Consumption - A comprehensive approach is necessary to boost consumption, emphasizing the coordination of financial, fiscal, and industrial policies to enhance residents' consumption capacity [3][4]. - Policies such as entrepreneurial guarantee loans and innovative financial products tailored to family wealth management are being implemented to support employment and optimize insurance systems [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidance from the People's Bank of China and other departments aims to enhance financial support for consumption, establishing a multi-tiered financial service system to meet diverse financing needs and stimulate high-quality consumption growth [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The guidance outlines 19 key measures across six areas: enhancing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption sectors, unlocking consumer potential, improving consumption supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and ensuring policy support [2]. - The focus is on three main consumption areas: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption, with specific strategies to activate market potential in these sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support Mechanisms - The current financial service system includes banks, consumer finance companies, and auto finance companies, with credit support being the primary channel, complemented by bond and equity financing [4]. - The guidance emphasizes the need for banks to optimize credit products and enhance support for first-time loans, renewals, and credit loans to improve the sustainability of consumer financial services [4][5]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Environment - Improving the consumer environment is crucial for stimulating consumption, with measures to optimize payment services, strengthen credit systems, and protect consumer rights [6]. - The guidance highlights the importance of increasing residents' income levels and improving consumption infrastructure to support market expansion and quality enhancement [5][6].