Core Viewpoint - The Chinese emerging technology industry is in the early stage of its lifecycle, with high valuations and significant innovation advantages expected to drive market capitalization growth for leading companies; the manufacturing and consumption industries are more mature, with solid global competitiveness and potential for valuation increases [3][66]. Group 1: Technology Industry Comparison - The overall lifecycle of China's emerging technology industry is early, with optimistic growth expectations reflected in valuations for AI hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [72]. - The semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment sectors show high valuations compared to international leaders, indicating market optimism for rapid profit growth and catching up [9][72]. - Internet companies exhibit weaker profitability and lower relative valuations compared to international counterparts, while consumer electronics have a notable overseas revenue share and moderate valuations [9][72]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing Comparison - The advanced manufacturing sector in China is relatively mature, with strong global competitiveness and significant valuation advantages compared to international leaders [68][98]. - The lithium battery sector leads in scale and profitability, with head companies generally having lower valuations than their international counterparts, indicating a strong cost-performance ratio [68][40]. - High-end equipment and new materials industries have profitability comparable to international leaders, but their global expansion potential remains significant [68][40]. Group 3: Consumer Industry Comparison - The product consumption sector in China shows strong profitability, but its growth is heavily reliant on domestic demand, leading to lower global competitiveness compared to international leaders [68][49]. - Service consumption is still in the early development stage, with lower scale and profitability compared to international leaders, but it has substantial growth potential as the economic structure transforms [68][49]. - Overall, the consumer sector has a relatively high cost-performance ratio, with opportunities arising from the transformation of consumption structure and the growth of service consumption leaders [68][49]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include leading companies in electric new energy, transportation equipment, communication devices, electronics, and service consumption sectors, which are expected to benefit from strong innovation advantages and global expansion potential [69][60].

证券研究报告 固收视角 生产端有所收敛 华泰研究 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 | 张继强 | | --- | 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 12 月第三周，地产方面，地产成交热度小幅修复，但新房与二手房整体偏弱，叠加高基数影响，同比读数弱于前期， 房价有待改善，土地成交指标低位运行。生产端来看，工业方面，货运量韧性回落，生产开工率多数偏弱，地炼开工 率修复，焦化、高炉、汽车边际偏弱，基数对读数有扰动。建筑业方面，水泥与黑色供需偏弱运行，库存小幅去化， 沥青开工率 ...

在政策引领下，我国消费市场正加速从"物质型"向"服务型""体验型"转型，人工智能、场景融合等元素 催生的消费场景不断"焕新"，为经济高质量发展注入强劲动力。 新华财经上海12月18日电 近日召开的2025年中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市 场"置于2026年八大重点任务之首，明确提出深入实施提振消费专项行动，扩大优质商品和服务供给、 优化"两新"政策实施等一系列举措。 提振消费信号密集释放 "扩大内需是有效应对外部冲击的战略举措，也位列明年经济工作重点任务之首。"中泰国际首席经济学 家李迅雷分析认为，中央经济工作会议提出，要深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计 划，这是从消费能力的角度入手提振消费；而扩大优质商品和服务供给，则聚焦于进一步释放消费增长 空间，通过"新技术-新产品-新场景"等实现供需良性循环。 "今年政府工作报告32次提及'消费'，政策对消费的重视程度前所未有。"东海基金的基金经理杨恒表 示。 相关部门正协同发力，推动一系列促消费政策落地。近日，商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合 印发《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》，围绕商品消费、服务消费、新型消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Notice on Strengthening Business and Financial Coordination to Boost Consumption" by the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau aims to enhance consumer spending through 11 policy measures, aligning with the central economic work meeting's focus on domestic demand and market expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The "Notice" establishes a collaborative framework at the ministerial level to break down departmental barriers, aiming for a synergistic effect in promoting consumption [1]. - It emphasizes the need for local governments to create coordination mechanisms to ensure policy alignment and information sharing, encouraging the development of special plans that combine fiscal, business, and financial strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Focus Areas for Support - The policies target the entire consumption chain and new business models, including support for trade-in programs for automobiles and the integration of domestic and foreign trade [2]. - In the service consumption sector, a "1+N" policy system is introduced, utilizing targeted incentives through service consumption and elderly care refinancing tools [2]. - The new consumption models, particularly those integrating artificial intelligence and intellectual property, are prioritized to expand consumer engagement [2]. Group 3: Financial Product and Service Innovation - The "Notice" encourages financial institutions to develop digital, inclusive, and convenient business models, particularly for online channels and rural markets [2][3]. - It promotes the optimization of payment services, including installment payments and digital currency options, to enhance consumer convenience [2]. Group 4: Implementation and Coordination - The "Notice" stresses the importance of efficient collaboration among government, financial institutions, and businesses to ensure effective policy execution [3][4]. - Local business departments are tasked with creating lists of key consumption projects to share with financial institutions, facilitating better communication and support [3][4]. Group 5: Role of Local Governments and Financial Institutions - Local governments are encouraged to integrate various policies, establish risk compensation funds, and amplify the effects of financial policies [4]. - Financial institutions are expected to take a leading role in innovation and service delivery, developing tailored products for specific sectors like automotive and home appliances [3][4]. Group 6: Overall Strategy - The core themes of "coordination" and "downward penetration" are highlighted as essential for delivering policy benefits through specific financial products and services to meet the needs of businesses and consumers [5].

关联内容 高基数扰动11月经济数据，新兴产业、服务零售增长较快 12月15日，国家统计局公布了11月经济数据。11月，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%。 1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额456067亿元，同比增长4.0%。 其中，基本生活类和部分升级类商品销售增长较快，限额以上单位粮油食品类、通讯器材类、文化办公 用品类商品零售额同比分别增长6.1%、20.6%、11.7%。此外，服务消费增速明显高于整体增速。1-11 月份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比1-10月份加快0.1个百分点。 知名经济学家、国研新经济研究院创始院长朱克力向21世纪经济报道记者分析称："当前消费数据呈现 出冷热交织的图景，结构性亮点正为市场注入新动能。整体消费增速虽保持温和复苏，但服务消费与升 级类商品形成双轮驱动，成为消费市场最突出的增长极。" "以旧换新"动能释放 今年以来，"两新"工作取得积极成效。 记者从商务部了解到，今年前11个月，消费品"以旧换新"带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6 亿人次，其中家电以旧换新超12844万台，手机等数码产品购新补贴超9015万件，家装厨卫"焕新"超过 1. ...

通知围绕商品消费、服务消费、新型消费、消费场景、消费帮扶等重点领域和强机制、抓落实、促合力 等关键环节提出3方面11条政策措施。 记者从商务部获悉，商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局近日联合印发《关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度提振消费的通知》，指导地方相关部门和金融机构加强协同，精准施策推动惠民生和促消费紧 密结合，形成提振和扩大消费的更大工作合力。 在加大消费重点领域金融支持方面，鼓励金融机构围绕升级商品消费、扩大服务消费、培育新型消费、 创新多元化消费场景、助力消费帮扶五大重点领域，优化金融产品服务，推动供需两端强化对接，提高 对商品和服务消费的适配性，因地制宜推动新型消费发展，支持消费新业态新模式新场景建设，落实落 细各项金融支持举措。 ...

● 本报记者 胡雨 从中共中央政治局会议明确"持续扩大内需、优化供给"，到日前六部门联合印发旨在进一步释放消费潜 力的政策文件，再到地方出台支持消费的惠民政策，近期与促进消费、提振内需相关的政策密集出台， 在提振居民消费预期的同时，也对大消费板块行情向好提供了政策层面的助力。 临近年底消费旺季，从中央到相关部委再到地方，一系列旨在扩大内需和提振消费的政策红利持续释 放，市场对增量政策的预期也在不断增强：日前工业和信息化部等六部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供 需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，明确到2027年，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热 点，并从5方面部署了19项重点任务；商务部副部长盛秋平12月9日表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作 为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量 发展；新疆乌鲁木齐市推出"雪假畅玩六条"惠民政策，推出多类型文旅产品，并搭配实施多重优惠。 对于提升消费率可能出台的增量政策，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊认为，短期可能包括延续并扩大直接 补贴及消费贷贴息、清理现存消费限制、改善一般物价环境等；中期视角下，加快消费税改革、推动消 ...

近期，与促进消费、提振内需相关的政策密集出台，在提振居民消费预期同时，也给大消费板块行情向 好提供了助力。 业内人士认为，延续并扩大直接补贴及消费贷贴息、改善物价等，有望成为短期内值得期待的扩消费政 策；从投资角度出发，消费行业呈现底部特征，基本面触底修复构成股价"催化剂"，具备规模效应且业 绩弹性突出的连锁餐饮与新茶饮企业、赛事运营与相关服务领域的体育公司、具备稀缺IP价值并能持续 转化粉丝经济的演艺运营商等细分标的值得关注。 政策红利不断释放 在中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊看来，未来经济工作需要促进形成更多由内需主导、消 费拉动、内生增长的经济发展模式，在财政支出方向上，"以旧换新"政策有望延续并更多向服务消费领 域倾斜，2026年推动更多资金资源投资于人、服务民生这一政策导向或会继续强化。 临近年底消费旺季，从中央到相关部委再到地方，一系列旨在扩大内需和提振消费的政策红利持续释 放，市场对增量政策的预期也在不断增强。 两大维度布局消费板块 在继续促进商品消费的同时，服务消费或成为下一步发力的重点。 结合对国内消费结构的分析，万联证券社会服务行业分析师叶柏良认为，服务消费行业预计将迈入快速 增 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report explores investment opportunities in the "14th Five-Year Plan" from two dimensions: strategic directions indicated by planning suggestions and historical focus industries from previous five-year plans [1] - The three main policy lines of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are summarized as "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with "Development" focusing on advanced manufacturing and new productivity, "Livelihood" emphasizing domestic demand expansion, and "Security" reinforcing national defense and key technology areas [1][2] - The report indicates that while certain industry themes may create long-term excess returns if performance continues to validate, the likelihood of sustained excess returns throughout the entire five-year planning cycle is low [3] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development, breaking down economic and social development goals into three main lines: "Development," "Livelihood," and "Security," with 12 key tasks identified [2][8] - The "Development" line focuses on enhancing traditional industries, scaling new pillar industries, and ensuring supportive industries for high-quality growth, with a strong emphasis on technological self-reliance [9][10] - The "Livelihood" line aims to address issues related to population structure changes and economic development, focusing on expanding domestic demand and improving residents' income levels to boost consumption in health, education, and elderly care sectors [11][12] - The "Security" line highlights the importance of national defense and ecological safety, with a focus on military modernization, key resource security, and the development of critical technologies [14][17] Group 3 - The investment guidance indicates that key themes and newly emphasized industries may not achieve significant excess returns over the entire five-year cycle, citing examples from previous plans where certain sectors underperformed [15][16] - The report notes that while industries like new energy vehicles have shown potential for long-term excess returns, the possibility of sustained excess returns throughout the five-year planning cycle remains limited due to over-optimistic pricing and cyclical nature of industries [15]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in September remained stable, with marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but performance varied significantly across industries [1][4] Industry Summary - **Upstream Resource and Raw Material Industries**: - Upstream resource products benefited from "anti-involution" policies and supply constraints, leading to increased demand and rising prices during the peak season [1][3] - Upstream raw materials like steel and building materials showed limited improvement due to low investment chain sentiment [1][3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Emerging manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors experienced significant expansion in peak season due to domestic industrial upgrades and recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment activities [1][2][3] - **Downstream Consumer Sector**: - The real estate market showed weak recovery in transaction volumes, with retail sales of major consumer goods continuing to slow down, indicating insufficient performance during the peak season [1][3] Logic Behind Industry Divergence - The shift in policy focus since July has contributed to the divergence in performance between upstream resource products and downstream consumer sectors, with more emphasis on supply-side optimization and less direct stimulus for demand [2] - Domestic industrial upgrades and economic transformation, along with accelerated recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment, have led to the performance divergence between emerging manufacturing and traditional investment chain-related industries [2] September Industry Information Review - **Energy and Resource Sector**: - Coal production checks improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to price increases; metal supply disruptions and seasonal demand recovery also contributed to price rises [3] - **Real Estate Sector**: - Weak recovery in commodity housing transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, with overall real estate investment remaining low [3] - **Financial Sector**: - A-share trading activity reached new highs, with insurance companies seeing continued growth in premium income [3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Mechanical equipment sales showed strong growth, with heavy truck sales increasing further [3] - **Consumer Sector**: - Service consumption showed slight decline, while overall commodity consumption momentum weakened [3] - **TMT Sector**: - Increased activity in domestic and international AI and humanoid robotics sectors [3] - **New Energy Sector**: - Strong demand for energy storage, positive production trends for lithium batteries, and potential early mass production of solid-state batteries [3]