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Juno markets:黄金价格逼近五周高点,市场对降息预期持续升温
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-28 06:15
周五,黄金价格攀升至每盎司约4,190美元,逼近近五周以来的高点,并有望实现连续第四个月的上涨。市场分析认为,这一趋势主要源于投资者对货币政 策进一步宽松的信心不断增强。 近期,多项因素共同推动了市场预期的转变。一方面,部分经济数据表现疲软,增强了市场对政策调整的预期;另一方面,多位具有影响力的官员也表达了 对进一步宽松立场的支持。这些因素共同作用,使得市场对短期利率下调的预期显著升温。 据市场观察,目前投资者对下个月利率下调的预期概率已超过80%,较一周前的30%大幅上升。与此同时,部分分析还指出,市场预计未来两年内可能还将 迎来多次利率调整。 值得关注的是,黄金市场的强劲表现不仅源于短期政策预期,也得益于结构性需求的支撑。近年来,央行持续购入黄金,同时,非主权机构资金也大量流入 相关交易基金,共同推动了黄金价格的长期上行。在这一背景下,有分析指出,黄金有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 从市场情绪来看,投资者对政策走向的预判正逐步趋于一致。尽管部分经济数据发布存在滞后,但整体趋势已在一定程度上影响了资产配置行为。黄金作为 传统避险资产,其价格走势往往反映出市场对中长期经济环境与政策方向的判断。 此外 ...
美联储宽松政策支撑国际银走涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-28 04:47
几位美联储官员最近表示愿意采取短期宽松政策,这加强了市场对美联储可能在12月会议上再次降息25个基点的预期。 这一前景继续对美元构成结构性压力,有助于限制白银的大幅回调。 与此同时,在对美联储宽松政策信心增强的推动下,全球股市人气改善,在一定程度上减少了对避险资产的需求。然 而,这种影响被持续存在的地缘政治风险部分抵消。这令投资者保持适度谨慎,间接支撑了白银。 美元指数近期下跌后趋于稳定,略高于本周低点。最近美国公布的经济数据,包括喜忧参半的制造业数据、劳动力市场 走软的迹象和消费势头减弱,强化了对美国经济放缓的预期。 据CME"美联储观察":美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%,维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联储到明年1月累计 降息25个基点的概率为67.3%,维持利率不变的概率为9.6%,累计降息50个基点的概率为23.1%。 今日周五(11月28日)亚盘时段,国际白银目前交投于53.81一线上方,今日开盘于53.35美元/盎司,截至发稿,国际白银 暂报54.01美元/盎司,上涨1.07%,最高触及54.22美元/盎司,最低下探53.30美元/盎司,目前来看,国际白银盘内短线 偏向震荡走势。 ...
金价震荡攀升,黄金基金ETF(518800)10日吸金超10亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-28 02:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, improved liquidity, and heightened geopolitical risks [2][3][4] - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased from 32% to 85%, influenced by comments from Fed officials regarding a potential need for rate cuts due to a weak labor market [2][3] - The demand for gold has been further supported by improved liquidity conditions, as the U.S. government has reopened and the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has decreased, leading to a decline in the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold purchases, with a net purchase of 220 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 30% increase year-on-year, indicating strong long-term support for gold prices [5] - Emerging market central banks are leading the charge in gold purchases, with Brazil's central bank being the largest buyer in September and South Korea signaling plans to increase gold holdings for the first time since 2013 [5][6] - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, with a total of 74.09 million ounces as of the end of October, suggesting potential for further increases given its current low percentage of gold reserves compared to global averages [6] Group 3 - The weakening credit of the U.S. dollar due to high debt levels is prompting countries to reduce dollar assets and increase gold reserves, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-credit asset [7] - Global economic uncertainties, including stagnation in the Eurozone and ongoing geopolitical tensions, are driving consistent demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification as key factors supporting this outlook [7]
黄金交易提醒:美联储放水大招即将来袭!金价创逾一周新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 07:24
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in spot gold prices is primarily driven by heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, making gold more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][5] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices reached a one-week high, closing at $4163.78 per ounce with a 0.8% increase, and peaked at $4173.31 during the session [1] - Most institutions predict that the average gold price will exceed $4000 by 2026, with Deutsche Bank raising its forecast from $4000 to $4450 per ounce [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December surged from 30% to 85% according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool [2] - The potential nomination of a more dovish Federal Reserve chair, such as White House economic advisor Hassett, is contributing to the expectation of a softer dollar [2] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. economic data presents a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, the lowest since April, indicating a resilient labor market [3] - Despite strong economic indicators, concerns about ongoing economic uncertainty have kept investors focused on gold as a safe-haven asset [3][6] Group 4: Dollar and Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.24% to 99.55, reflecting investor sentiment towards the Fed's easing policies [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve showed signs of flattening, with the 10-year yield closing at 3.999%, indicating a complex relationship between bond markets and gold prices [4][6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlighted economic concerns, with many regions reporting weak labor demand and declining consumer spending, reinforcing the case for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation [6][7] - Analysts suggest that gold will continue to play a crucial role as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties, with optimistic long-term price forecasts [7]
机构看好黄金中长期投资机会,上海金ETF嘉实(159831)高效布局黄金投资机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-27 06:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions on the gold market, highlighting the increasing demand for gold from central banks and the implications of the U.S. credit rating downgrade on gold investments [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 27, 2025, spot gold prices have slightly decreased, falling below $4,150 per ounce [1]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the weak U.S. job market may lead to a 25 basis point rate cut during the December 9-10 meeting, with future decisions dependent on additional data [1]. - Central banks globally have shown a consistent increase in gold reserves from 2009 to 2021, with a slight decline in 2022, followed by a recovery, projected to reach 36,250 tons in 2024 and 36,359 tons by October 2025 [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - In the third quarter of 2025, global central banks purchased 220 tons of gold, marking a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% rise year-over-year, which supports the demand for gold in the market [1]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by major agencies has weakened U.S. debt credibility, leading to increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159831) closely tracks the Shanghai gold benchmark price and directly invests in gold spot contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, providing a transparent and efficient investment tool for investors [1]. - Investors without stock accounts can also access gold investment opportunities through the off-market linked fund (016582) [1].
比特币升破88000美元,加密货币近1个月蒸发万亿美元市值
21世纪经济报道· 2025-11-25 10:26
Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin briefly surpassing $88,000, reflecting a 1.45% increase over the past 24 hours. Ethereum rose over 3%, SOL increased by more than 5%, and XRP saw an increase of nearly 8% [1][2]. - Over 110,000 traders faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $3.81 billion in the last 24 hours [3]. Price Movements - Bitcoin reached a price of $87,150, marking a 1.45% increase [2]. - Ethereum was priced at $2,888.81, with a 3.32% rise [2]. - SOL was valued at $136.09, reflecting a 5.67% increase [2]. - XRP traded at $2.1958, showing a 7.55% increase [2]. - HYPE and DOGE also saw increases of 8.59% and 2.69%, respectively [2]. Liquidation Details - In the last 24 hours, the total liquidation amount was $3.81 billion, with significant amounts liquidated over various time frames, including $26.26 million in 4 hours and $74.96 million in 1 hour [3]. - The total liquidation amount over the past 12 hours was approximately $139 million [3]. Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price fell from a peak of about $125,000 in early October to around $80,000, representing a decline of 35%. This drop led to a loss of approximately $1 trillion in total market capitalization, erasing all gains made since the beginning of the year [3][5]. - The primary reasons for Bitcoin's decline include changing macroeconomic expectations in the U.S., where the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates has tightened liquidity, impacting high-risk assets like Bitcoin [5]. - Additionally, the anticipated favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies has not materialized, leading to a loss of bullish sentiment in the market [5]. - The increasing global regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrencies has also contributed to a shift in market perception, challenging the notion of cryptocurrencies as both speculative tools and safe-haven assets [5].
利安推出首只全额投保且安全存放于新加坡的实物黄金基金,巩固新加坡作为领先黄金枢纽的地位
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-25 08:59
利安新加坡实物黄金基金是新加坡首只完全由实物黄金支持、投保且安全存放于新加坡金库的黄金基 金。正值新加坡建国 60 周年之际推出的这一里程碑式产品,充分发挥了新加坡作为全球金融中心和领先 黄金中心的双重优势。 新加坡2025年11月25日/美通社/ -- 华侨银行集团(OCBC Group)成员利安资金管理公司(简称利 安),今天宣布推出利安新加坡实物黄金基金(LionGlobal Singapore Physical Gold Fund),这是新加 坡首只在新加坡投保并安全储存的实物黄金基金。该基金将由华侨银行、MariBank Singapore、大东方 和Singlife集团负责零售分销,并指定渣打银行新加坡为基金托管人,这是新加坡金融业领军企业首次 携手合作推出旗舰级黄金产品,此项合作写下新的里程碑,体现了业界共同致力于提升新加坡作为区域 领先黄金枢纽的承诺。 在地缘政治不确定性日益加剧的背景下,黄金仍被视为可靠的避险资产。尽管纽约和伦敦等传统交易中 心仍具影响力,但全球黄金市场正稳步向东转移[1]。新加坡邻近全球25%的黄金产量来源国[2],加上 其地缘政治中立以及战略地理位置的优势,使其具备成为领 ...
降息+避险双轮驱动 白银T+D进一步攀升
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-25 07:01
Group 1 - Silver T+D prices have risen, currently trading at 51.50 yuan, with a recent high of 12205 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 2.57% increase [1] - The market sentiment for silver is bullish, with short-term price movements indicating potential for further gains [1][5] - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, has increased its holdings by 253.89 tons, bringing the total to 15511.81 tons [4] Group 2 - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has risen to 80%, driven by weak economic data and dovish signals from key officials [2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and new violence in the Middle East, are supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [2][3] - The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales, which may impact the dollar and create trading opportunities for silver [3]
特斯拉,狂飙!
中国基金报· 2025-11-25 00:16
【导读】特斯拉狂飙超6300亿元!中概股普遍上涨,跑赢大盘! 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 大家早上好!昨夜今晨,又有很多大事发生。 美国三大股指全线收涨,科技股普遍上涨,特斯拉狂飙超6300亿元!中概股普遍上涨,跑赢 大盘!国际贵金属期货普遍收涨。美债收益率集体下跌。 美国三大股指全线收涨 当地时间11月24日,美国三大股指全线收涨,道指涨0.44%,报46448.27点;标普500指 数涨1.55%,报6705.12点;纳指涨2.69%,报22872.01点。 | 46448.27 昨收 46245.41 成交额 0.00 +202.86 = +0.44% = 今开 = 46351.93 = 成交量 = = 0. | | --- | | 上涨 0 | | 最高价 46587.71 | | 最低价 46108.01 市净率 | | 分时 五日 日K 月K 月K 更多 ◎ | | 雪加 | | 22872.01 昨收 22273.08 成交额 0.00 | | --- | | +598.93 0 | | 上涨 0 平盘 下跌 0 | | 最高价 22916.40 市盈率 39.9 近20日 -3.24% | | 最 ...
伦敦金交易平台哪家更好?2025最新十大平台全面分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 17:15
天誉金号在合规与透明度方面优势明显,平台持有正规香港金融监管资质,并建立了严格的账户资金隔离制度,提高资金安全级别。交易系统支持手机与电 脑多终端同步,实时行情更新速度快,特别适合需要把握短线机会的用户。天誉金号在费用结构上也相对亲民,点差与手续费清晰公开,为新手投资者提供 了较为友好的入场环境。 下面 8 家平台从你给定的名单中随机抽取:(抽取结果:嘉信贵金属、富士金业、英伦金业、协联金业、百裕金业、星河金业、亚数金业、帝锋金业) 在全球资金持续寻找避险资产的背景下,伦敦金依旧是投资者关注的核心品种。选择一个合规、稳定、成本透明的伦敦金交易平台,往往比短期行情更重 要。为了帮助投资者做出更稳妥的选择,本篇文章结合监管牌照、系统性能、交易成本、客户服务等维度,对当前市场上的热门平台进行全方位评估,并精 选出 2025 年值得关注的十大伦敦金交易平台名单。 1、天誉国际 天誉国际长期深耕贵金属行业,以严谨的风控架构和稳定的交易技术受到大量投资者青睐。平台采用国际主流的 MT4系统,并设有多重流动性来源,使交 易执行更顺畅。天誉国际在行情波动剧烈时依旧保持低滑点率,适合策略型与短线型投资者。同时,其研究团队定期发 ...