Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Tracking Weekly Report 20250809 - Report Date: August 9, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate new home transactions declined both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, falling below the seasonal level, and further policy support is needed. The movie box office recovered, while the migration scale index dropped. Industrial production in the production field was stable, and infrastructure construction maintained resilience. In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and cement demand declined. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties, with lithium carbonate, iron ore, and polysilicon generally rising [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - **Real - estate**: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities declined on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, significantly below the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities also decreased overall. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, the second - hand housing transaction areas all decreased on a week - on - week basis. The current real - estate supply and demand are weak, and more active real - estate easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering mortgage interest rates, and reducing down - payment ratios. On August 8, Beijing announced a new housing purchase policy, allowing eligible families to buy an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [3][4][14]. - **Consumption**: Movie box office recovered. As of the week ending August 1, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars increased by 41.0% on a week - on - week basis but decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. As of the week ending August 8, the national movie box office increased by 4.7% on a week - on - week basis and was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 5.0% on a week - on - week basis, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined [42]. 2. Production - **Mid - upstream**: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces, petroleum asphalt plants decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of the week ending August 8, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces dropped by 1.1 pct to 82.6%, the operating rate of rebar increased by 0.3 pct to 44.3%, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 2.5 pct to 76.2%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 0.9 pct to 90.7%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 1.4 pct to 31.7% [50]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of the automotive industry declined slightly. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in the automotive industry decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value of the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The trade - in subsidy policy continued to boost domestic demand and may support the production side in the short term [50]. 3. Investment - Rebar's apparent consumption recovered, but its price decreased. As of the week ending August 8, rebar's apparent consumption increased by 3.6% to 211 tons, and its price decreased by 1.0% to 3392.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price decreased by 2.7% to 3535 yuan/ton. The cement price decreased by 0.6% to 103.8 points, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 39.2%, and the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio decreased by 0.1 pct to 62.6% [66]. 4. Trade - **Export**: Port throughput decreased, and container shipping prices generally declined. As of the week ending August 8, the port's container throughput decreased by 8.5% on a week - on - week basis, lower than the level of the same period last year. The CCFI composite index dropped by 2.6% on a week - on - week basis, with the European route rising by 0.53% on a week - on - week basis, and the freight rates of the US West and US East routes decreasing by 5.56% and 5.14% respectively on a week - on - week basis. In addition, the BDI index continued to decline, dropping by 3.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. - **Import**: The container shipping price decreased slightly, and the CICFI composite index was 673.9 points, down 0.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. 5. Prices - **CPI**: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis. Vegetable prices rose, while egg, pork, and fruit prices declined. Specifically, vegetable prices increased by 3.3% on a week - on - week basis, pork prices decreased by 0.4% on a week - on - week basis, egg prices decreased by 0.8% on a week - on - week basis, and fruit prices decreased by 1.0% on a week - on - week basis [8][90]. - **PPI**: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 1.3% on a week - on - week basis. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 3.4% on a week - on - week basis, the WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 5.2% on a week - on - week basis, the IPE UK natural gas futures settlement price increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 2.5% on a week - on - week basis, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.6% on a week - on - week basis. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties. This week, lithium carbonate, iron ore, soda ash and other commodity futures led the gains, while caustic soda, coking coal, and glass led the losses [8][98][109]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 11 - 15), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 385.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 173.5 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of government bonds is 260 billion yuan, with a net financing of 164.4 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 91.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 13.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank bonds is 34 billion yuan, with a net financing of 22.9 billion yuan [9][115]. - As of August 8, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has exceeded 94.2%, reaching 1.883 trillion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 68.2%, reaching 545.6 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 64.0%, reaching 2.8179 trillion yuan [9]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. As of the end of July, China's gold reserves were reported at 73.96 million ounces (about 2300.41 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) compared with the previous month [126][127]. - Multiple policies were introduced this week, covering pre - school education, finance supporting new industrialization, bond valuation, monetary policy, industrial policy, and real - estate policy, etc. For example, the State Council issued an opinion on gradually promoting free pre - school education; seven departments jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization; the central bank will conduct a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation [127][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state where supply fundamentals are peaking, with high crude steel supply and seasonal decline in demand, resulting in certain supply - demand pressures. However, due to coal mine production checks and expected steel mill production restrictions in August, the subsequent iron - water output may decline, which could drive the futures market up. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level trend. Traders are advised to wait and see for single - side trading, consider positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar for arbitrage, and wait and see for options trading [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar increased by 10.12 tons to 221.18 tons, while that of hot - rolled decreased by 7.9 tons to 314.89 tons. The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 34.5% (+ 1.4%). The production enthusiasm of the overall steel industry was relatively strong [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 210.79 tons (+ 7.38 tons), and that for hot - rolled was 306.21 tons (- 13.79 tons). Steel exports declined due to rising prices. The real estate market was still in a downward trend, but the manufacturing PMI expanded, and the automobile industry maintained positive growth in both domestic and foreign demand, while the home appliance industry entered a demand off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 10.39 tons, hot - rolled inventory increased by 8.68 tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.47 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, steel prices may maintain a high - level trend. Future attention should be paid to overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a high - level trend and recommend waiting and seeing; for arbitrage, recommend positive basis trading when the basis is low and narrowing the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for options, recommend waiting and seeing [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3300 yuan (+ 40 yuan). The hot - rolled price in Shanghai was 3460 yuan (+ 50 yuan), and in Tianjin was 3400 yuan (+ 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of East - China electric furnaces was - 44.37 yuan (+ 9.5 yuan), and the valley - rate electricity profit was + 121 yuan (+ 10 yuan). The profit of long - process steel decreased slightly but remained above 100 yuan [4][30]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Domestic Policies**: A new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" will be implemented on February 1, 2026. Seven departments including the central bank issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization, and three departments issued a plan for a new round of rural road improvement [32]. - **Foreign Policies**: The US may impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors [32]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with an increase in both new RMB loans and government bond issuance. The M1 - M2 growth rate was - 3.7%, with a significant reduction in the decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 2.8%, with a decline in the growth rate [42]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 blast furnaces was 240.32 tons (- 0.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric furnaces was 34.5% (+ 1.6%). The small - sample production of rebar increased, while that of hot - rolled decreased [4][62][67]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar increased, while that for hot - rolled decreased. The export of steel decreased due to rising prices. The real estate market was still weak, the manufacturing industry expanded, the automobile industry maintained growth, and the home appliance industry entered an off - season [4][70]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled both increased, and the total inventory of five major steel products also increased [4].

Group 1: Free Preschool Education Policy - The State Council has announced a gradual implementation of free preschool education, starting from the autumn semester of 2025, exempting public kindergartens from charging care fees for children in their final year [2][3] - The policy is expected to benefit approximately 12 million children this autumn semester, with financial support from the central and local governments to compensate kindergartens for lost income [2][3] - This initiative aims to reduce childcare costs and promote educational equity, contributing to long-term population development strategies [3] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface Industry Development - Seven departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have issued guidelines to achieve breakthroughs in key brain-computer interface technologies by 2027, establishing a comprehensive technology and industry system [4][5] - The guidelines aim to expand the application of brain-computer interface products across various sectors, including industrial manufacturing and healthcare, and to foster the growth of 2 to 3 industry clusters [4][5] - The brain-computer interface sector is expected to see significant innovation and the emergence of globally influential companies by 2030, with a focus on enhancing innovation capabilities [4][5][6] Group 3: Financial Support for New Industrialization - The People's Bank of China and other departments have released guidelines to support new industrialization, proposing 18 measures to enhance the financial system's adaptability to manufacturing [7][8] - The guidelines emphasize the importance of financial support for high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, aiming for a mature financial system by 2027 [7][8] - The focus is on optimizing financial policies to support key technologies and products, ensuring that manufacturing enterprises' credit needs are met [8] Group 4: China's Foreign Trade Performance - China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, and exports increased by 7.3% [9][10] - In July, exports grew by 8%, marking the highest growth rate of the year, while imports rose by 4.8%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [9][10] - The performance is attributed to Chinese manufacturers leveraging the US-China tariff pause and actively exploring new markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America [10] Group 5: Beijing Real Estate Policy Adjustment - Beijing has announced a policy change allowing families to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, provided they meet certain residency and tax criteria [13][14] - The policy aims to stimulate the real estate market and is accompanied by increased support for housing provident funds, including higher loan limits for second homes [13][14] - Despite the easing of purchase limits, the policy does not eliminate the qualification requirements for non-local families, indicating a cautious approach to market adjustments [14] Group 6: Commercial Health Insurance Development in Shanghai - Shanghai has introduced the "New 18 Measures" to promote the high-quality development of commercial health insurance, particularly in supporting the biopharmaceutical industry [15][16] - The measures focus on enhancing collaboration between basic medical insurance and commercial insurance, addressing payment mechanisms and regulatory innovations [15][16] - The initiative aims to improve the accessibility and affordability of innovative drugs and medical devices, potentially boosting the commercial health insurance market [16] Group 7: Mergers and Acquisitions in State-Owned Enterprises - China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry have received approval for a merger, marking a significant consolidation in the state-owned enterprise sector [17][18] - This merger is part of a broader trend of accelerated integration among state-owned enterprises, with a focus on enhancing industrial efficiency and competitiveness [17][18] - The recent regulatory changes have led to increased activity in the M&A market, with a notable rise in large-scale transactions [18]

Core Points - The provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to collect typical application cases of artificial intelligence empowering new industrialization in Liaoning Province for the year 2025 [1] - The focus is on four major directions: industry applications, equipment products, support guarantees, and other special projects [1] Group 1: Industry Applications - Emphasis on four trillion-level industrial bases and 22 key industrial clusters, targeting key links such as product research and development, process design, and production management [1] - Cases should demonstrate innovation, promotional value, and possess certain economic and social benefits, as well as a role in demonstration and guidance [1] Group 2: Equipment Products - Focus on equipment products empowered by artificial intelligence, including the development of industry large models, intelligent terminal products, high-end intelligent equipment, and intelligent industrial software [1] - Cases should reflect the trend of intelligent development of equipment products and have certain promotional value [1] Group 3: Application Case Submission - Applicants must be enterprises, research institutes, and universities with core capabilities in artificial intelligence empowering new industrialization [1] - Submitted cases should have a high technical level and strong representativeness, demonstrability, and innovation [1] Group 4: Selection and Recommendations - The provincial Department will organize experts to select outstanding cases for inclusion in the cultivation database of typical applications empowered by artificial intelligence [1] - The selection results will be used as important references for recommending key projects to various provincial departments and for talent recommendations in "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" [1]

Group 1 - The company emphasizes the importance of new industrialization trends and focuses on providing comprehensive solutions for the mining (coal) and infrastructure construction sectors [2] - The company is committed to continuous investment in research and development, as well as the automation transformation of production lines to achieve "machine substitution for human labor" [2] - The company actively embraces the industrial Internet of Things model, offering intelligent equipment to clients, which enhances production safety and reduces costs while improving efficiency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have issued guidelines to financially support new industrialization, aiming for a mature financial system that enhances service adaptability for high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing by 2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Support for New Industrialization - New industrialization requires significant financial support due to its characteristics of high investment, high risk, and long cycles, particularly in areas like intelligent transformation and green transition [1][2] - The financial system faces challenges in supporting new industrialization due to the high risks and uncertainties associated with technology development, especially during the commercialization phase [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face pronounced difficulties in financing, necessitating optimized policy tools and the introduction of patient capital to alleviate funding bottlenecks [2] Group 2: Differentiated Financial Strategies - A differentiated approach to financial support is essential, as various industries have different lifecycle stages, technological maturity, and market demands [3] - Over-investment in emerging industries can lead to bubbles, while insufficient support for traditional industries can hinder their upgrade, affecting overall industrial resilience [3] - Financial resources should be directed towards technology innovation, product upgrades, and brand development to foster internationally competitive brands and shift from cost competition to technology and brand competition [3] Group 3: Avoiding Internal Competition - The global manufacturing sector is undergoing significant adjustments, and it is crucial to direct financial resources towards key areas of technological advancement and industrial upgrading to enhance competitiveness [4] - Avoiding "involution" in the industry, characterized by low-level repetitive construction and homogeneous product price wars, is vital for fostering innovation and breaking through core technology bottlenecks [3][4]

七部门联合发文 推动金融支持新型工业化发展 中国人民银行、工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委 政部、金融监管总局、中国证监会、国家外汇局近 合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》 新型工业化重点领域,提出18项针对性支持举措, 加强金融服务能力和长效机制建设、增强金融支持 工业化的强度精度效度。 《安日》 相山 九龙小学堂 一、儿儿、十四十四日 《息儿》 提出, 列推进郝坚上业化、川伏及庚莉陵 力提供高质量金融服务,坚持分类施策、有扶有控 动产业加快迈向中高端,防止"内卷式"竞争。到 2027年,支持制造业高端化智能化绿色化发展的金 体系基本成熟,服务适配性有效增强。 ·提升产业科技创新能力。 优化金融政策工具 引入长期资金和发展耐心资本 支持产业链自主可控 十二十二十 ● 引导银行为集成电路、工业母机等制造业重点产业f 技术和产品攻关提供中长期融资 ● 对突破关键核心技术的科技企业,适用上市融资、 购重组、债券发行"绿色诵道" ● 实施"科技产业金融一体化"专项,开展"一月一链"排 融资路演 ● 鼓励创业孵化机构探索直投、基金、物业租金作价, 股等模式,投资在孵企业 元音开则员款以束,文持难王企业案焦广业链 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to new industrialization trends by providing comprehensive solutions for mining and infrastructure construction, focusing on automation and smart equipment to enhance production safety and efficiency [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is dedicated to the development of new industrialization, particularly in the mining (coal) and infrastructure sectors [1] - Continuous investment in research and development is a priority for the company to advance automation in production lines [1] Group 2: Product Offerings - The company aims to implement "machine replaces human" strategies, aligning with the industrial Internet of Things (IoT) model [1] - Smart devices are being developed to provide intelligent detection, which assists clients in improving production safety and reducing costs [1]

黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 8 日 8 月 7 日，铁矿石期货主力 2509 合约震荡偏弱，低开后震荡运行，午间冲高 回落，随后震荡回升，收报 793.0 元/吨，跌 0.25%。 表2：8月7日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） 合约 前 20 多头 持仓 前 20 空头 持仓 前 20 多头 持仓变化 前 20 空头 持仓变化 多空 对比 RB2510 992,977 1,006,896 7,755 -24,951 32,706 3.27% HC2510 1,002,530 1,032,141 -12,817 -26,326 13,50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued guidelines to support the new industrialization, aiming for a mature financial system by 2027 that enhances service adaptability for high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing [1] Group 1: Financial Support for New Industrialization - The new industrialization requires significant financial support due to its characteristics of high investment, high risk, and long cycles, particularly in areas like intelligent transformation and green transition [1][2] - Financial support must address the challenges of high risk and uncertainty in technology development, especially during the commercialization phase where failures and market acceptance issues are prevalent [2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises face significant challenges in financing, necessitating optimized policy tools and the introduction of patient capital to alleviate funding bottlenecks [2] Group 2: Differentiated Financial Strategies - A differentiated approach to financial support is essential, as various industries have different lifecycle stages and technology maturity levels, which can lead to resource misallocation if not properly addressed [3] - Over-investment in emerging industries can create bubbles, while insufficient support for traditional industries can hinder their upgrade and weaken overall industry resilience [3] - Financial resources should be directed towards technology innovation, product upgrades, and brand building to foster internationally competitive brands and shift from cost competition to technology and brand competition [3] Group 3: Avoiding Internal Competition - The current global manufacturing landscape is undergoing significant changes, with developed countries pushing for manufacturing return and emerging economies accelerating industrialization [4] - To avoid internal competition, financial resources should focus on key areas of technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades, enhancing China's manufacturing competitiveness in the international arena [4]