石破茂（资料图） 据海外网报道，日本首相石破茂表示，对美国当天开始对关键汽车零部件加征25%关税非常遗憾，将继 续要求美国重新审视相关关税措施。据日本广播协会报道，石破茂当天与日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正会 面，听取第二轮日美关税谈判详情汇报。赤泽亮正刚刚结束第二轮日美关税谈判返日。石破茂在会面后 对媒体表示，日本正与美国就包含汽车、钢铁和铝等产品的关税措施进行谈判。日美两国的立场存在分 歧，尚未找到共识。 汽车产业是日本经济的支柱之一，对美出口在日本汽车产业中占有重要地位。美国征收关税将直接打击 日企，增加经营负担。以丰田汽车为例，因关税产生的负担预计将超过1万亿日元，其他如本田、日产 等日本车企也预计将承受数千亿日元的影响。立场支撑与回应：石破茂在谈判中强调日本不会为了短期 利益而牺牲长期竞争力，同时表示日本将考虑所有选项以应对美国的关税政策。他暗示，在必要时日本 不排除做出强硬回应，以维护本国汽车产业的利益。 值得注意的是，作为全球最大的美国国债海外持有者，日本的公共和私营部门共持有超过1万亿美元的 美国国债。一段时间以来，日本会否利用美债问题向美施压备受外界关注。尽管现在一切未知，但日本 财务大臣加藤胜信 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during the G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The meeting is scheduled for May 20-22, focusing on the separation of currency issues from direct trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. [1] - Kato and Bessent last met on April 24, agreeing to continue constructive dialogue on monetary policy without setting exchange rate targets [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar surged due to a temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China, alleviating concerns about a potential global economic recession [2] - Risk sentiment improved, leading to a decline in safe-haven currencies like the yen, with the dollar reaching 148.66 yen, the highest level since April 3 [2] - Kato stated that the Japanese government will closely monitor the developments related to the U.S.-China agreement and assess its impact, although he refrained from commenting on exchange rate trends [4]

Group 1 - In March 2025, Estonia's total goods trade reached 3.63 billion euros, a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [1] - Exports amounted to nearly 1.7 billion euros, growing by 16.5%, while imports reached 1.93 billion euros, up by 13.4% [1] - The trade deficit was 230 million euros, a decrease of 12 million euros compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The most exported goods in March 2025 were electrical equipment, accounting for 13% of total exports, followed by wood and wood products at 12% [1] - The largest increase in exports was seen in transportation equipment, which grew by 27% and constituted 10% of total exports [1] - The highest imports were transportation equipment at 14%, with agricultural products and food also at 12% [1] Group 3 - In the first quarter of 2025, Estonia's total goods trade reached 10.22 billion euros, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [2] - Cumulative exports for the period were 4.68 billion euros, while imports totaled 5.54 billion euros, both showing a growth of 13.8% [2] - The trade deficit for the first three months was 860 million euros, an increase of 107 million euros compared to the previous year [2]

关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 当前形势下的协议评估:在当前形势下，若要达成一项消除美国贸易逆差的协议，要求取消除10% 双边关税以外的所有关税。但从博弈论矩阵来看，达成这样的协议并非最优选择。在"达成协 议"和"不达成协议"的对比中，双方的收益和损失情况表明，此时达成全面协议对双方来说都不是 最佳决策。 部分协议的探讨:有人提议将关税降至65% 达成部分协议，对此也进行了分析。即使中国出口下降 40%，美国出口下降 20%，中国会从部分协议中受益，但美国会拒绝这项部分协议。这是因为美 国必须至少获得目前从关税或更多贸易中获得的 1690 亿美元收益，而在这种情况下无法满足美国 的利益需求。 可能达成协议的条件:经过研究发现，如果在部分协议下，中国出口下降幅度小于 40%，美国出口 下降幅度小于 20%，部分协议就有可能达成。例如，在关税为 70% 时，估计中国出口将下降 25%，美国出口将下降 12.5%，此时部分协议对双方都比当前状况更有利。甚至在关税为60%，中 国出口下降25% 或更低幅度时，协议也有可能达成。 这说明，贸易降幅和关税水平是影响协议能 否达成的关键因素。 三、关税调整对贸易逆差的影响 关税与贸易逆 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the constructive progress in the U.S.-China trade negotiations, indicating that the differences between the two countries are not as significant as previously thought [1][2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen and U.S. Trade Representative Tai expressed optimism about the negotiations, suggesting that agreements reached could help reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China [1] - The discussions held in Switzerland resulted in an agreement to establish a framework for ongoing trade issue consultations, indicating a commitment to continued dialogue [1] Group 2 - The commentary from Xinhua highlights the importance of a healthy and stable economic relationship between the U.S. and China for the well-being of both nations and global prosperity [2] - It stresses that enhancing dialogue and managing differences effectively will contribute to better global economic progress [2]

当前形势下的协议评估:在当前形势下，若要达成一项消除美国贸易逆差的协议，要求取消除10%双边 关税以外的所有关税。但从博弈论矩阵来看，达成这样的协议并非最优选择。在"达成协议"和"不达成 协议"的对比中，双方的收益和损失情况表明，此时达成全面协议对双方来说都不是最佳决策。 部分协议的探讨:有人提议将关税降至65%达成部分协议，对此也进行了分析。即使中国出口下降40%， 美国出口下降20%，中国会从部分协议中受益，但美国会拒绝这项部分协议。这是因为美国必须至少获 得目前从关税或更多贸易中获得的1690亿美元收益，而在这种情况下无法满足美国的利益需求。 可能达成协议的条件:经过研究发现，如果在部分协议下，中国出口下降幅度小于40%，美国出口下降 幅度小于20%，部分协议就有可能达成。例如，在关税为70%时，估计中国出口将下降25%，美国出口 将下降12.5%，此时部分协议对双方都比当前状况更有利。甚至在关税为60%，中国出口下降25%或更 低幅度时，协议也有可能达成。这说明，贸易降幅和关税水平是影响协议能否达成的关键因素。 三、关税调整对贸易逆差的影响 花旗银行亚洲交易策略主管穆罕默德阿帕巴伊(Mohammed ...

消息人士：特朗普团队的贸易谈判优先名单包括日本、韩国和越南等国家，它们都是美国的主要进口来 源国，也是特朗普希望减少贸易逆差的国家。还包括斐济、莱索托和毛里求斯等相对次要的合作伙伴。 ...

名单中包括日本、韩国和越南等美国主要进口来源国，特朗普希望缩小这些国家的贸易逆差。 此外，名单中还包括斐济、莱索托和毛里求斯等相对较小的合作伙伴。 美国制定贸易谈判优先名单，其中包括大约20个经济体。 标普500指数和纳指持平，道指微跌60点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's trade policies, particularly the use of tariffs, which are intended to stimulate the U.S. economy, bring back manufacturing jobs, and increase tax revenue, but are met with skepticism from economists and investors regarding their effectiveness and potential consequences [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariffs are expected to maintain a high level even after trade negotiations conclude, which has angered trade partners and contributed to global economic slowdown [1][2]. - The concept of an optimal tariff rate is introduced, suggesting that a higher tariff could maximize tax revenue and stimulate economic growth, with estimates indicating an optimal rate around 20% [2][3]. - Concerns are raised about inflation rising to 4% and potential economic stagnation, with predictions of a "short and mild" recession if tariffs remain high [5][6]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions Among Advisors - There are significant disagreements among Trump's advisors regarding the economic theories behind tariffs, with some supporting the idea of optimal tariffs while others argue against the notion that global trade is the primary cause of job losses in the U.S. [3][12]. - Economic advisors like Stephen Moore attribute job losses to factors such as taxes, regulation, and technology rather than trade policies [12]. - The article highlights the ongoing internal conflicts within the administration regarding trade strategies, with figures like Peter Navarro advocating for protectionist measures while others, including Arthur Laffer, express concerns about the long-term damage of such policies [11][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the announcement of tariffs, there was significant market volatility, with investors selling U.S. assets, leading to declines in the dollar, U.S. Treasury bonds, and stock markets [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to affect market sentiment, with concerns about the potential return of "bond vigilantes" who may punish poor policy decisions through increased borrowing costs [9]. - Trump's administration has made concessions, such as delaying tariffs for negotiations, but the uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains a significant concern for investors [9].