Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of service consumption driven by the resurgence of travel during the New Year holiday, which has become the main force for domestic demand recovery [1] - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the development of overseas business in the consumer sector by 2026, alongside a focus on high-dividend quality companies during market style shifts [1] - The report notes that the 2026 policy direction will significantly boost consumption, with a particular emphasis on experiential service consumption as a key growth area [1] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday, transportation data indicates a total of 590 million people traveled across regions, with an average of 198 million daily, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Railway passenger volume is expected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is projected at 540 million, up 15.5% [1] - The report mentions that inbound tourism is continuing to grow, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday increasing by 110% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The first batch of national subsidies for 2026 has been issued, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, benefiting categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators [3] - Midea has initiated a price increase for air conditioners, implementing a tiered pricing strategy with a 2% increase on January 3 and an additional 4% on January 5 [3] - The report indicates that Midea's price increase is a response to rising copper costs and aims to improve the competitive landscape in the air conditioning industry [3] Group 4 - CES 2026 is set to take place from January 6 to 9, 2026, in Las Vegas, showcasing Chinese technology consumer products transitioning from innovative to mainstream [4] - The focus will be on smart home devices, electric vehicles, and various consumer electronics, with particular attention to stair-climbing vacuum cleaners for the European and American markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting a positive interaction between supply and demand to achieve a dynamic balance, which is essential for constructing a new development pattern and driving high-quality economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Interaction - Promoting a positive interaction between supply and demand is necessary to provide a solid foundation for constructing a new development pattern and driving high-quality development [2]. - The current focus of China's economic development has shifted from "availability" to "quality," necessitating a transformation in supply to meet new demands [2]. - The dual challenges of supply-side and demand-side issues are intertwined, with structural, institutional, and cyclical problems affecting economic recovery [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implementation - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party has outlined a top-level design for economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for supply-demand interaction to address imbalances [3]. - Strengthening domestic circulation while ensuring smooth international circulation is crucial for leveraging China's large market and production capacity [3]. Group 3: New Demand and New Supply - The relationship between new demand and new supply is dialectical, forming a dynamic cycle that achieves a higher level of balance [4]. - New demand drives supply transformation, pushing for optimization and upgrading of the supply system to meet changing consumer preferences [5]. - New supply is not merely a passive response to existing demand but actively creates new types of demand through innovative practices [6]. Group 4: Practical Pathways for Supply-Demand Interaction - Investment in both physical and human capital is essential for establishing a solid foundation for supply-demand interaction [7]. - Enhancing consumption and activating domestic demand potential are strategic priorities, with a focus on new types of consumption and improving the consumption environment [8]. - Addressing bottlenecks in the economic cycle and improving supply-demand matching mechanisms are critical for achieving a high-level socialist market economy [9]. Group 5: Regional Coordination and Development - Urban-rural and regional development imbalances necessitate collaborative development to enhance the breadth and depth of supply-demand interaction [10]. - Promoting the flow of quality industries and services from urban to rural areas can activate rural economic potential and stimulate consumption demand [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the booming ice and snow economy in China, driven by a comprehensive industrial chain and supportive government policies [1][2][3] - The scale of China's ice and snow industry is projected to grow from 364.7 billion yuan in 2016 to 980 billion yuan by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 21.09%, and is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [1] - The participation in ice and snow sports and related consumption is anticipated to exceed 187.5 billion yuan during the 2024-2025 season, representing a growth of over 25% compared to the previous season [1] Group 2 - The shift in China's consumption structure from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services is evident, with service consumption playing a crucial role in economic and livelihood connections [2] - Innovative practices, such as the "snow holiday" initiative in regions like Jilin and Xinjiang, aim to leverage local ice and snow resources to enhance consumption vitality [2] - The integration of diverse ice and snow experiences, such as combining winter sports with summer activities, is being explored to ensure year-round engagement and economic growth [2][3]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

Group 1 - The report predicts that the A-share bull market will continue in 2026, driven by resilient overseas economies, likely continued dollar liquidity easing, and domestic policies maintaining a "dual easing" tone, with technology growth remaining the long-term market focus [4][7][8] - During the New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.76%, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by technology and materials sectors [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December, marking the first increase since April, driven by policy support and pre-holiday inventory buildup [8][9] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of service consumption policies, with the National Development and Reform Commission announcing a 2.95 billion yuan investment plan and 625 million yuan in special bonds to support consumption [9][10] - The real estate sector is expected to experience a significant divergence in policy expectations, with new housing sales projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11][12] - The public fund industry is expected to see a high-quality development trend, with new regulations aimed at reducing investor costs and promoting long-term holding of funds, potentially saving investors 51 billion yuan annually [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation Holding Company (China National Airlines) with a target price of 11.8 CNY / 10.0 HKD, compared to the current price of 9.37 CNY / 7.11 HKD [1][12]. Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to enter a significant bullish phase due to multiple factors, including supply constraints and improving demand dynamics [5][9]. - The report highlights that the airline industry is experiencing a structural improvement in demand, with a notable increase in international travel compared to domestic travel [9][10]. - China National Airlines is positioned to benefit from its superior resource endowment and customer base, which is less sensitive to price changes, thus showing strong pricing power [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report anticipates a low growth rate in aircraft imports in China, with a projected net increase in the industry of around 3% from 2025 to 2027 [9][28]. - Demand for air travel is improving, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 3.8% and international passenger volume rising by 20% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [9][10]. - The industry is experiencing high seat occupancy rates, with an average of 85.2% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong pricing elasticity [10][22]. 2. Company Analysis: China National Airlines - China National Airlines has the highest pricing elasticity and the strongest ability to increase prices within the industry, which is expected to lead to superior performance in a bullish market [11][12]. - The company benefits from a well-distributed international route network, particularly in transcontinental routes to Europe and North America, which are expected to recover more significantly [11][12]. - Compared to Delta Airlines, China National Airlines is gradually closing the gap in scale but still has room for improvement in profitability, with current net profit margins at 6-8% compared to Delta's over 10% [11][12]. 3. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a significant increase in net profit for China National Airlines, projecting a return to profitability with net profits of 8.6 billion, 69.3 billion, and 100.5 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 and 2027 are projected to be 0.4 CNY and 0.58 CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24 and 16 [12]. - The target market capitalization for China National Airlines is estimated at 230.7 billion CNY, indicating a potential upside of 41% from the current valuation [12].

Group 1: Domestic Tourism and Entertainment Market - The domestic tourism and entertainment market experienced a strong start during the New Year holiday, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing over four times year-on-year [1] - The film market also performed well, with box office revenue surpassing 700 million yuan by January 3, 2026, marking a significant consumption surge at the beginning of the year [1][6] Group 2: Ice and Snow Tourism Trends - Ice and snow tourism became a popular choice during the New Year, with various deep-play options gaining traction, such as ice fishing and traditional fishing experiences [4] - The "00s" generation accounted for 39% of travelers during the New Year, indicating a shift towards experiential consumption among younger demographics [4] Group 3: Inbound Tourism Growth - Inbound tourism saw robust growth, with ticket bookings increasing by 110% year-on-year during the New Year holiday, and experience-based product bookings rising over 30 times [5] - Hainan emerged as a key destination for international tourists, with significant increases in flight bookings and hotel occupancy rates [5] Group 4: Film Box Office Performance - The top films during the New Year included "The Hidden Kill" and "The Legend of the Qin," both surpassing 100 million yuan in box office revenue [6][7] - The diverse range of film genres contributed to a vibrant box office performance, attracting various audience segments [6][7]

Group 1 - The core policy for 2026 focuses on large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with specific support areas and subsidy standards outlined in the notification [2] - The 2026 policy introduces new subsidy categories, including updates for old residential elevators, equipment for elderly care institutions, and safety equipment [3] - The policy aims to enhance rural consumer access by increasing offline business entities and guiding online channels towards rural areas [3][4] Group 2 - The subsidy mechanism for 2026 has been optimized, with differentiated subsidies based on the number of elevator floors and prioritizing electric vehicle updates for old operational trucks [5] - In the consumer goods replacement sector, the subsidy for cars remains unchanged, while home appliance subsidies are adjusted to support only energy-efficient products, with a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [6] - The policy emphasizes the importance of service consumption and aims to expand domestic demand through the implementation of the "Two New" policies [6][7]

其次，提升客运服务质量。科学制定售票策略，加强票额实时监控，兼顾长短途需求，及时向客流集中 的车站投放票额，最大限度保障旅客出行需求。 记者从中国国家铁路集团有限公司获悉，铁路元旦假期运输自2025年12月31日启动，至2026年1月4日结 束，为期5天，全国铁路预计发送旅客7780万人次，其中1月1日为客流最高峰。 铁路部门精心制定假期运输工作方案，加大客运能力供给，强化站车服务举措，保障旅客平安便捷温馨 出行。 动态分析铁路12306预售票和候补数据，及时研判客流运行情况，通过加开临时旅客列车、动车组列车 重联、普速列车加挂车辆、开行夜间高铁等措施，增加重点地区、热点线路、高峰时段运力供给，最大 限度满足旅客假日出行需求。 文/张智 跨境旅客运输方面，开好广深港高铁跨境旅客列车和中老、中蒙、中俄、中越国际旅客列车，方便旅客 假日跨境旅游、购物。保持普速列车开行规模，持续开好公益性"慢火车"和"乡村振兴"旅客列车，方便 沿线群众出行。精心组织开行"熊猫专列""伊春号""大河之南号"等各具特色的旅游列车，定制化开 行"歌迷专列""球迷专列""研学专列"，促进假日经济和服务消费发展。 首先加大客运能力供给。用好 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in China's consumption structure from a focus on goods to a balanced emphasis on both goods and services, with experience-driven service consumption expected to be a major growth engine. The current valuation of the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery. The central economic work conference continues to prioritize domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with consumption policies remaining stable. However, due to adjustments in household balance sheets, a fundamental recovery will take time, and the social service sector is expected to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026. Long-term growth prospects for service consumption are promising, driven by the demands of Generation Z and the elderly population [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of 2025, domestic service consumption has risen to 47%, entering a rapid growth phase and becoming a major component of household consumption. The long-term stability and focus of policies on service consumption have been emphasized, with the current sector's price-to-earnings ratio still below the five-year average, indicating room for recovery [3][12][16]. - The travel sector is experiencing pressure on revenue, with notable disparities in performance among tourist attractions. The introduction of extended holiday periods and the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system are expected to enhance travel demand and improve industry conditions [3][42][43]. - The duty-free market is undergoing significant changes, with the introduction of international duty-free retailers and airport equity investments expected to revitalize the market. Policy benefits and the closure effect are catalyzing a surge in duty-free consumption on the islands [3][42]. Group 2: Consumer Trends - The report identifies a structural change in consumption driven by the needs of Generation Z and the elderly population. These demographics are expected to significantly influence service consumption trends, with Generation Z favoring emotional value and personalized experiences, while the elderly market is expanding due to increasing demand for healthcare and leisure services [3][39][41]. - The rise of new consumption platforms is enhancing user engagement and efficiency in service consumption, with concert events and sports competitions becoming key drivers of market expansion [4][39]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The government's focus on boosting consumption and optimizing supply-demand structures is evident in the 2025 government work report, which prioritizes expanding domestic demand. The policy direction is expected to remain stable into 2026, with an emphasis on both demand-side stimulation and supply-side optimization [17][20]. - Various measures have been introduced to support service consumption, including financial incentives for service industry operators and initiatives to enhance service quality and accessibility [21][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts, such as travel-related companies, duty-free leaders in the Hainan Free Trade Port, and chain restaurants poised for expansion. Additionally, early investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts are recommended [2][41].