证券研究报告 乐信 (LX US) 3Q25：业绩稳健但 4Q25 或面临挑战 3Q25 新放款量环比略降低至 509 亿元（同比/环比：-0.2/-3.8%），我们估 计放款量收缩可能主要由于公司减少了 ICP 业务的投放。电商业务环比增 长 14%至 23.1 亿元，环比增速相对上个季度的 80.2%明显放缓，电商业务 在放款量中的贡献约 5%。我们预计 4Q25 公司的放款量将进一步收缩，主 要由于在《助贷新规》要求下，剩余 ICP 业务可能会逐步出清，同时由于 风险上涨，公司可能采取更谨慎的放款策略，进而导致放款量收缩。我们预 计 4Q25 放款量环比下降约 10%。 盈利：4Q25 盈利面临压力 3Q25 NTR 增至 2.0%（2Q25：1.92%），主要受营销开支占贷款余额的比 例由 2.13%降低至 1.81%驱动。另外公司资金成本环比提升 20bps 至 4.4%， APR 环比基本持平。我们预计公司 4Q25 的盈利或将面临压力，主因放款 量收缩以及信用成本提升。预计 4Q25 盈利约 3.4 亿元，环比降低 34%。 盈利预测与估值 由于贷款风险上涨、定价上限压降、电商业务增长放缓，我们 ...

Core Insights - The core point of the news is that Zhejiang Vipshop Payment Co., Ltd. has increased its registered capital from 100 million RMB to 200 million RMB, marking a 100% increase, which enhances its capital strength and risk resilience in the payment industry [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Increase and Strategic Importance - The capital increase directly enhances the payment institution's capital strength and aligns with regulatory requirements for stable operations in the payment sector [1][2]. - For Vipshop, this capital increase is not merely a financial supplement but a critical step in upgrading its financial technology infrastructure, providing a solid foundation for its core e-commerce business and related financial services [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Value of Payment License - Vipshop Payment, established in 2011, holds a payment business license from the People's Bank of China, allowing it to conduct internet payment services [2]. - The payment license is seen as a "digital lifeline" for platforms like Vipshop, enabling control over cash flow and data flow, which is essential for building a competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Integration of Payment and Financial Services - The strategic significance of the capital increase is expected to be reflected in the core product "Vipshop Flower," which has evolved from a consumer installment tool to a key driver of transactions and financial connectivity [3]. - The integration of payment capabilities enhances user payment flexibility and willingness to consume, supported by a stable payment channel [3][4]. Group 4: Scene Finance and Competitive Landscape - The payment industry is experiencing dynamic changes, with Vipshop's capital increase and other platforms' activities indicating a shift towards "scene finance" [5]. - The successful model of integrating e-commerce, payment, and consumer finance has been validated by the growth of products like JD's White Bar and Meituan's Monthly Payment [5][6]. Group 5: Unique Advantages and Future Challenges - Vipshop's clear user profile and stable consumption scenarios provide it with unique advantages in the competitive landscape of scene finance [6]. - The focus on specific consumption scenarios allows for a higher degree of alignment with user needs, which is crucial for future competition [6].

Core Insights - The trend of Chinese tech giants expanding their financial services overseas is gaining momentum as they seek opportunities in less competitive markets while facing challenges in their domestic market [1][2][12] Group 1: Overview of Overseas Expansion - Major Chinese companies like Ant Group, Tencent, Didi, Meituan, and ByteDance are venturing into international markets, offering a variety of financial services from payments to digital banking and personal loans [1][2] - The overseas expansion is characterized by technology and business model exports, which not only promote Chinese products but also foster local inclusive finance [2][12] Group 2: Didi's International Financial Services - Didi has established a significant presence in Mexico, focusing on credit services and electronic payments, and has been recognized by local regulators for its financial offerings [4][7] - The company aims to enhance user experience by providing basic payment services and exploring savings and micro-loan options in Brazil and Mexico [6][7] Group 3: Ant Group's Strategy - Ant Group is leveraging its core strengths in payment technology and risk control to expand its international footprint, with a focus on cross-border digital payments and financial services [8][9] - The company has adopted a strategy of "technology licensing + strategic investment + ecosystem cooperation" to integrate into local markets while avoiding regulatory hurdles [9][12] Group 4: Tencent's Approach - Tencent's overseas financial strategy revolves around its WeChat ecosystem, offering cross-border payment solutions and supporting local digital banks with its cloud computing capabilities [10][11] - The company is cautious in its expansion, focusing on partnerships and technology empowerment rather than direct competition with local players [11][12] Group 5: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Chinese tech giants face significant challenges in their overseas ventures, including stringent regulatory environments, competition from local firms, and a lack of user trust [2][13][15] - The shift from East Asia to regions like the Middle East and Latin America reflects a strategic pivot to less saturated markets, aiming to meet local financial needs [17][18] Group 6: Future Directions - The focus of Chinese companies is shifting from individual service offerings to building comprehensive ecosystems that integrate various financial services with e-commerce, social media, and other platforms [17][19] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, prioritize local compliance, and leverage advanced technologies to enhance their international operations [19][20]

Group 1 - The US IPO market is expected to rebound in 2025, with 40-60 large IPOs anticipated, bringing the total to 190 and raising $35 billion [1] - Key sectors for potential IPOs include technology, fintech, and consumer goods, with Klarna and StubHub leading the way [1] - The list of companies to watch for potential IPOs in Q4 includes Avalara, Wealthfront, and Grayscale [1] - The momentum of the IPO rebound is expected to continue into 2026, with tech leaders like Databricks, Canva, and Proofpoint poised for recovery [1] Group 2 - As autumn approaches, trading activity is expected to reach its fastest pace since 2021, driven by a surge in IPO enthusiasm [2] - In August, 29 new IPO applications were submitted, with 10 seeking at least $50 million, double the number from the previous year [2] - A total of 113 US IPO companies submitted new or updated public applications in the past three months, with 15 seeking at least $50 million [2] - The thriving SPAC market is providing an alternative route for companies to go public [2] Group 3 - Technology IPOs are returning to the market at an encouraging pace, although overall activity remains below 2021 levels [4] - The pricing of tech IPOs this year has exceeded last year's levels, with many large transactions yielding substantial returns [4] - Retail investor enthusiasm for technology, fintech, cryptocurrency, and AI is driving this IPO rebound [4] Group 4 - Klarna, a leading IPO candidate, plans to raise $1 billion in its upcoming IPO, making it one of the largest IPOs of the year [5] - Other notable companies that submitted IPO applications in August include Netskope, Via Transportation, Figure, Pattern, and Gemini [5] Group 5 - Klarna offers "buy now, pay later" loans and has approximately 111 million active customers and 790,000 merchants across 26 countries as of June 2025 [7] - Klarna facilitated a total merchandise volume (GMV) of $112 billion in the 12 months ending June 30, 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is potentially entering a significant opportunity, described as an "epic opportunity," due to the introduction of personal consumption loan subsidies, which are expected to stimulate the consumption market [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumption - The newly introduced consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to address insufficient domestic demand and weak consumer confidence, which are currently hindering economic recovery [5][6]. - The policy is designed to lower the cost of consumer loans, thereby enhancing residents' consumption capacity and stimulating market activity [6][8]. - Fund companies believe that the subsidy policy will benefit the consumer sector significantly, with expectations of continued policy support for consumption in the future [8][10]. Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector has underperformed in the market, with the CSI Consumer Index down 2.11% year-to-date as of August 14, 2023, indicating a potential investment opportunity due to low valuations [10][11]. - Current market sentiment towards the consumer sector is pessimistic, with valuations dropping below 20 times earnings, suggesting that the sector may be oversold [10][11]. - Despite short-term challenges, structural opportunities within the consumer sector are still worth monitoring, particularly in areas like automotive and service consumption [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The subsidy policy is not only focused on consumption but also aims to rebalance the entire domestic demand chain, potentially benefiting sectors like banking and technology services [12][13]. - Banks are expected to benefit from reduced financing costs and increased demand for retail loans, which could lead to a positive cycle of growth in the consumer market [12][13]. - The revival of consumer activity is likely to enhance transaction volumes in payment services and local life platforms, creating opportunities for technology service providers [12][13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total net revenue for Q2 was RMB 5.22 billion, up from RMB 4.69 billion in Q1 and RMB 4.16 billion a year ago [16] - Non-GAAP net income increased by 30.8% year over year to RMB 1.85 billion, while non-GAAP EPADS rose by 48.8% to RMB 13.63 [5][22] - The effective tax rate for Q2 was 19.3%, higher than the typical rate of approximately 15% due to withholding tax provisions [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from credit-driven services was RMB 3.57 billion in Q2, compared to RMB 3.11 billion in Q1 and RMB 2.91 billion a year ago [17] - Revenue from platform services was RMB 1.65 billion in Q2, up from RMB 1.58 billion in Q1 and RMB 1.25 billion a year ago [17] - Loan volume supported by total technology solutions business increased approximately 150% year over year [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total loan facilitation and origination volume increased by approximately 16% year over year to RMB 84.6 billion [4] - New credit line users grew 40% year over year to 1.79 million, while the number of new borrowers increased by approximately 60% year over year to 1.23 million [10] - Total ABS issuance in the first half of the year nearly matched the full year total in 2024, with issuance costs declining to a record low [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its AI plus bank strategy and enhancing its AI agent platform to drive digital transformation in financial institutions [11][13] - The company aims to optimize products and services to better address user needs while improving operational efficiency [13] - The company is exploring overseas expansion opportunities, with initial operations launched in the UK [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that consumer confidence and credit demand remain soft, with no clear signs of recovery [31] - The company plans to prioritize risk management and take a cautious approach to loan origination in the second half of the year [33] - The company expects to generate non-GAAP net income between RMB 1.6 billion and RMB 1.8 billion for 2025, reflecting a prudent approach amid economic uncertainties [26] Other Important Information - The company has executed a share repurchase plan, purchasing approximately 7.1 million ADS for a total of approximately RMB 277 million [25] - The company reported a provision coverage ratio of 662% in Q2, indicating a robust financial position [21][58] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the management's latest outlook on loan volume growth? - Management indicated that consumer confidence remains soft, with a decrease in short-term household loans and no clear signs of recovery [31][32] Question: What are the latest views on take rates? - Management stated that the Q2 take rate was 5.4% and expected it to remain around 5% in Q3, with potential volatility due to new regulations [34][35] Question: What is the estimated impact of the new regulation on the ICE business? - Management views the new rules positively for the industry, expecting improved health and sustainability, while preparing alternative plans for the ICE business [40][44] Question: What are the main considerations for selecting target markets for overseas expansion? - Management considers regulatory environment, openness to fintech innovation, and financial infrastructure when selecting target markets [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's WeChat Pay has updated its consumer credit service "Fenfu" to include both "payment at the time of consumption" and "borrowing to bank card for consumption" as part of its offerings, indicating a shift towards more flexible borrowing options for users [1][2]. Group 1: Product Features and Competition - Fenfu is a consumer credit product that allows users to borrow for various consumption scenarios, such as dining and shopping, but does not support red envelope transfers [2][5]. - The newly introduced borrowing feature is designed to assess user consumption levels based on transaction history, which aids in credit evaluation [2][8]. - Fenfu is currently in a gray testing phase and is only available to select users, while the more established product, WeChat's "Weilidai," is more visible and accessible within the app [3][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Financial Performance - Tencent's financial technology revenue has been steadily increasing, with consumer loan services contributing significantly to this growth [6][7]. - In the first half of 2024, Tencent's financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached RMB 555 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [6]. - The registered capital of Tencent's financial subsidiary, Caifutong Xiaodai, ranks among the top in the industry, indicating strong financial backing for its lending operations [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the integration of consumption loans and cash loans could enhance flexibility in funding usage, catering to both immediate consumption and short-term financial needs [8]. - The reliance on transaction history for credit assessment may improve risk control but could also exclude users with low transaction frequency despite having good credit [8]. - As Fenfu matures, it is expected to elevate the scale of consumer credit offerings within Tencent's ecosystem, intensifying competition in the consumer credit market [8].

Personal Consumption Loan Subsidy - The policy allows borrowers to apply for personal consumption loans with a simple additional step of granting the lending institution permission to access transaction information [1] - For example, a consumer borrowing 200,000 yuan at a 3% annual interest rate would pay 6,000 yuan in interest without the subsidy, but with a 1% subsidy, the interest payment could be reduced by 2,000 yuan, resulting in a one-third interest reduction [1] Service Industry Loan Subsidy - Borrowing entities do not need to apply for the subsidy; they can proceed with the normal loan process at banks [2] - For instance, a restaurant obtaining a 900,000 yuan loan can receive a total subsidy of 9,000 yuan, which is returned in two phases: an initial payment of 3,000 yuan and subsequent monthly deductions of 750 yuan from future interest payments [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in China's consumption structure from goods to services, with per capita service consumption expected to reach 46.1% of total consumption by 2024, contributing 63% to the growth of consumer spending [2] - The establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company marks the beginning of a major infrastructure project that is expected to enhance regional economic collaboration and reduce logistics costs, with an estimated investment of around 500 billion yuan [7][8] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of major infrastructure projects on China's economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of external uncertainties [9][10] Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce indicates a rapid transition in China's consumption structure, with service consumption growing at an annual rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a one-year "dual interest subsidy" policy aimed at boosting consumer loans for various sectors, including automotive and healthcare [2] - The People's Bank of China is encouraging increased credit support for the service consumption sector to ensure effective policy implementation [4] Company Insights - Alibaba Health has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Innovent Biologics to enhance supply chain solutions for cold-chain delivery of specific medications [5] - Didi has recently invested in a driverless commercial vehicle company, indicating a strategic move towards autonomous transportation [5] - Jiangfeng Electronics is planning to integrate its flat panel display target material business with Japan's Aifuka Corporation, showcasing international collaboration [5] Infrastructure Projects - The Xinjiang-Tibet Railway is expected to significantly lower logistics costs and enhance economic cooperation between regions, with a construction period projected to exceed 20 years [8][9] - The report outlines that the construction of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway will provide a safety net for China's economy against external uncertainties, contributing approximately 0.18% to GDP growth annually [8][9] - Other major infrastructure projects are also set to commence, which will serve as important engines for domestic demand and economic stability [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the construction and materials sector will benefit significantly from the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway project, including major state-owned enterprises [9] - It emphasizes that the implementation of major projects will not only yield long-term benefits but also stabilize the economy amid external challenges [11]

Core Viewpoint - Qudian Inc. (QD) has shown a mixed financial performance with a significant decline in revenue but a substantial increase in net profit, indicating a potential shift in business strategy or operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Qudian reported total revenue of 25.79 million RMB, a decrease of 53.82% year-over-year [1]. - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 303.92% [1]. Upcoming Events - Qudian is scheduled to release its fiscal year 2025 mid-term report on September 5, with the actual disclosure date subject to company announcement [2]. Company Overview - Qudian is a consumer-oriented technology company based in China, previously focused on providing lending solutions but is now exploring innovative consumer products and services to meet daily needs [2].