美国CPI年率小幅回升。美国9月未季调CPI年率录得3%，为2025年1月以来新高，不过增幅略低于市场普遍预期的3.1%。季调后CPI月率0.3%，略低于预期的0.4%。#行情 市场加大今年再次降息两次的押注，现货黄金一度走高20美元，美元指数跌30点。纳斯达克指数期货涨1%，标普500指数期货涨0.7%。 ...

#报告 三菱日联：即使CPI有意外表现，美联储也不太可能跳过降息None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve remains highly sensitive to inflation fluctuations, with ongoing price pressures from tariffs and immigration policies complicating anti-inflation trends [1] - The U.S. September CPI report is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, marking a 16-month high, which will test the Fed's monetary policy direction [2] - Japan's rising inflation, with the consumer price index accelerating to 2.9% in September, opens the door for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December [3] Group 2 - South Korea's GDP growth is projected to accelerate in Q3, with a median forecast of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter growth and 1.5% year-on-year growth, driven by government cash subsidies and strong exports [3] - The Malaysian ringgit is expected to trade around 4.20 against the U.S. dollar, with potential upward movement due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - Russia's central bank may halt or slow its rate-cutting cycle due to inflation risks exacerbated by attacks on oil refineries and upcoming tax increases [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market rebounded significantly, with the Nasdaq rising over 200 points, indicating a recovery from previous declines [1][3] - The S&P 500 companies have reported strong earnings, with 80% exceeding expectations, which is crucial for sustaining the current bull market [3] Trade Relations - President Trump announced that a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders is on the agenda, alleviating some market fears regarding trade tensions [3] - However, there are concerns about potential new restrictions on software exports from the U.S., which could impact various sectors [3] Oil Market - Oil prices surged over 5% due to new sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russian oil companies and liquefied natural gas [4] - India, which previously sourced oil from Russia, is now seeking alternatives from the Middle East, contributing to rising oil prices [4] Valuation Concerns - Analysts warn that U.S. stock valuations are at their second-highest level in a century, reminiscent of the late 1990s internet bubble [5] - Some companies' stock prices are based on projected earnings as far out as 2030 or 2035, indicating a potential disconnect from fundamental values [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - There is a prevailing expectation in the market for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, despite inflation concerns [5] - The core CPI is projected to remain at 3.1%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, yet the anticipation of a rate cut is supporting investor optimism [5]

Group 1 - The Turkish central bank lowered the policy interest rate by 100 basis points from 40.5% to 39.5%, aligning with market expectations [2][5] - The central bank's overnight lending rate was reduced from 43.5% to 42.5%, and the overnight borrowing rate was decreased from 39% to 38% [2][5] - The central bank noted an increase in the underlying trend of inflation in September, despite signs of deflationary pressure in demand [5][6] Group 2 - Foreign investors increased their holdings of Turkish government bonds by $151.1 million, while there was an outflow of $178 million from Turkish stocks [5] - The consumer confidence index in Turkey fell from 83.9 to 83.6, marking the lowest level since July, primarily due to a slight deterioration in households' assessment of their current financial situation [5] - Turkey's annual inflation rate rose from 32.95% in August to 33.29% in September, marking the first increase in 16 months and raising risks of exceeding the central bank's year-end inflation target [5][6] Group 3 - The Turkish central bank has been addressing high inflation, having previously raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46% in April, followed by a series of rate cuts starting in July [6] - Other central banks, such as those in South Korea, Ukraine, Indonesia, and Hungary, opted to maintain their interest rates in October, reflecting a cautious approach in the current economic climate [7] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points in October is estimated at 96.7%, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [7]

Core Points - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, indicating a cautious approach towards further easing due to pressures from the real estate market and currency fluctuations [1][2] - The central bank's forward guidance shifted from "5 in favor, 1 against" to "4 in favor, 2 against," reflecting increased concern for financial stability [2] - The Korean won depreciated, reaching a low of approximately 1441 won per dollar, marking its weakest level since April [4] - The Korean stock market reversed its upward trend, with the KOSPI index closing down by 0.98% [6] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Korea has paused interest rate cuts since July, following four rate reductions since October 2024, totaling a decrease of 100 basis points [2] - Future rate cuts are anticipated in November 2026 and May 2027, with projections suggesting a final rate of 2%, contingent on stabilizing financial imbalances and potential export slowdowns [3] Economic Context - The real estate market in South Korea has shown signs of overheating, complicating the central bank's ability to implement further monetary easing [2] - Economic indicators, such as the resilience of apartment prices in Seoul and the performance of the semiconductor industry, suggest that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end [2][3]

Group 1 - ADP Research has suspended providing its employment data series to the Federal Reserve, which previously covered about 20% of the private sector employment in the U.S. This suspension is expected to widen the information gap for the Fed ahead of key monetary policy meetings [1] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting on October 28-29, with a strong market consensus anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of this rate cut has reached 96.7% according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Despite the interruption of key economic indicators, market expectations for a loose monetary policy continue to strengthen, with a recent survey indicating that 115 out of 117 economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00% [3] Group 2 - If the rate cut occurs as expected, it may lead to downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, affecting the prices of dollar-denominated assets like gold [4] - A loose monetary environment is likely to provide liquidity support for global risk assets [4] - The ongoing public calls from the White House for larger rate cuts may challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4]

Core Insights - The unexpected decision by Bank Indonesia to maintain interest rates indicates a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts, reflecting concerns over the current exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar [1] Interest Rate Outlook - Barclays economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut in Q4 and another 25 basis points in Q1 2026, leading to a final interest rate of 4.25% [1] - The timing of these rate cuts is highly uncertain, as it appears increasingly dependent on the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea maintains the seven-day repurchase rate at 2.5%, signaling a cautious approach towards further easing despite previous rate cuts since October of the previous year [1][2] - The decision aligns with the expectations of 23 out of 25 surveyed economists, indicating a consensus on the current policy stance [1] - The central bank's forward guidance reflects increased concern for financial stability, with a shift from "5 support - 1 oppose" to "4 support - 2 oppose" among board members [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing rise in the real estate market, with apartment prices in the capital area increasing for 37 consecutive weeks, raises concerns among policymakers [2][3] - The central bank is cautious about the potential for financial instability due to rising mortgage debt levels and the real estate market's performance [3] - Recent measures introduced by the government aim to cool the housing market, including tightening mortgage limits and expanding regulatory areas [3] Group 3 - Inflation remains close to the central bank's target of 2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in September, suggesting some room for easing if conditions allow [4] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on key exports, particularly in the automotive sector, is being closely monitored, with estimates indicating a potential drag on economic growth [4] - The Bank of Korea has adjusted its growth forecast for the year from 0.8% to 0.9%, reflecting a cautious outlook amid external pressures [4] Group 4 - The central bank is also attentive to the Federal Reserve's actions, as any divergence in policy trajectories could lead to currency fluctuations [5][6] - Concerns regarding exchange rate volatility have increased, with some board members indicating that sustained fluctuations may hinder the ability to pursue further easing [6]

Market Overview - Global equity and bond markets experienced an overall increase in Q3 2025, with domestic indices like ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 leading the gains [1] - The A-share market showed strong performance, particularly in the technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, which rose by 37.2% and 27.1% respectively [1] - The trading logic for the market is influenced by reduced policy disturbances from the US government, alleviated growth and inflation concerns, and a favorable liquidity environment [1] Macro Analysis - The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, a significant decrease from the nearly 3% growth rate of the previous three years, but still away from recession [2] - Inflation in the US remains under control, with the core PCE expected to rise moderately starting mid-2025 [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to support economic resilience in the US [3] Chinese Economy - Domestic demand has weakened, while external demand remains stable, with industrial output growth slowing in July and August [4] - Fixed asset investment shows stable demand, but new home sales are still poor, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased [5] - Inflation in China is showing signs of improvement, with PPI declines expected to narrow [6] Asset Analysis - Bond yields have risen significantly in Q3, driven by pressures on the liability side, with long-term rates increasing more than short-term rates [7] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals after the release of liability pressures [7] - The credit environment remains relatively loose, with a slight increase in social financing growth [6] A-share Market - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with significant capital inflows and a focus on the technology TMT sector [11] - Earnings expectations for Q3 are stable, but there may be high base pressure in Q4 [11] - The overall market valuation has exceeded historical averages, indicating potential volatility [11] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to overweight equities while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds, focusing on sectors with high growth potential such as AI and semiconductors [15] - For bonds, a balanced approach is suggested, with an emphasis on short to medium-term high-yield options [16] - In the A-share market, a more balanced allocation strategy is advised, considering the recent significant gains [17]