瑞典央行：瑞典失业率仍然居高不下。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time it has held rates steady. However, uncertainties regarding the policy path for the second half of the year are significant, making the upcoming "dot plot" and economic outlook from the Fed crucial for market reactions [1][4][5]. Interest Rate Projections - Market expectations indicate that the Fed may lower rates twice in 2025, with a potential first cut in September or October [1][2]. - The "dot plot" is anticipated to be more significant than the decision itself, with analysts focusing on whether it will signal only one rate cut instead of two for 2025 [1][8]. Economic Forecast Adjustments - Analysts predict that the Fed will lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, down from 1.7% previously, while raising the core PCE inflation forecast to 3.3% from 2.8% [7]. - The unemployment rate forecast is also expected to rise to 4.5%, compared to the previous estimate of 4.4% [7]. Inflation and Economic Data - Recent geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, potentially impacting inflation expectations, but analysts believe this will have limited effect on the Fed's June meeting [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, which has decreased from a peak of 5.6% in 2022 to 2.5%, is projected to rebound to 3.4% by year-end [5]. Market Reactions and Predictions - If the "dot plot" indicates only one rate cut, it may lead to significant market volatility, potentially strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on gold and other assets [10][11]. - The market has largely ignored the resilience of U.S. economic data, focusing instead on potential downside risks, which may affect the dollar's performance in the context of global "de-dollarization" [11].

智通财经APP获悉，美联储官员普遍预计将在美东时间周三举行的利率决议上，连续第四次会议维持利 率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需更清晰了解一系列政府政策调整对经济的影响。政策制定者此前 曾警告称，唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税可能推高通胀与失业率，但迄今为止，稳健的就业增长与通胀降 温让美联储官员今年得以维持利率不变。 德意志银行高级美国经济学家布雷特·瑞安表示："观望策略此前成效显著。如今既无迫切调整理由，通 胀前景仍存上行风险，为何要偏离这一策略?" 鉴于经济前景充满不确定性，投资者与经济学家将密切关注政策制定者更新的经济与利率预测。官员们 可能继续如多数预测所示，在今年计入两次降息，但部分经济学家称，"点阵图"可能仅显示一次降息。 美联储利率决议将于美东时间周三下午2点公布，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在此后30分钟后召开新闻发布 会。 政策声明要点 预计官员们会将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间，且对5月6-7日会议后的声明仅做细微调整。鉴于5月 会议以来贸易紧张局势(尤其是中美贸易)有所缓和，政策制定者可能微调关于经济前景不确定性的表 述。 瑞安及其团队在客户报告中指出，官员们可能不再称不确定性"进一步加剧 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. bond market and macroeconomic conditions, highlighting a significant shift in economic paradigms that have persisted for the last 40 years [1][17]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Regime Change**: The long-held belief that long-term interest rates will eventually decline is no longer applicable. The U.S. is on the brink of a dangerous collapse, with rising unemployment and inflation, alongside record-high deficits and debt [1]. - **Bond Market Dynamics**: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is experiencing its largest and longest drawdown since 1976, with prices halved and the rebound timeline uncertain. Despite credit spreads returning to early-year levels, the volatility experienced is significant [2]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The recent interest rate cuts have resulted in the worst historical drop in bond prices, remaining well below the median range, while short-term rates have shown little change [6]. - **Credit Stress**: The credit spread between CCC and BB-rated bonds has surpassed its moving average, indicating that weaker borrowers are beginning to face significant pressure [9]. - **Unemployment Correlation**: There is a strong correlation between the 10-year to 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spread and the U3 unemployment rate. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates but faces challenges in cutting them due to base effects [11]. - **Inflation Concerns**: The current inflation cycle closely resembles that of the 1920s, which could pose significant risks if similar conditions arise [15]. - **Dollar Dynamics**: Over the past 15 years, the dollar has typically risen during S&P adjustments, except for the current instance, indicating a global paradigm shift [17]. - **Fiscal Deficits**: By 2025, the increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit will far exceed the growth seen in the past three years, which has already been unprecedented in terms of money printing [22]. - **Debt Impact**: U.S. debt expenditures have accounted for over 50% of the past 15 years, leading to increased living costs and potentially reigniting inflation by the end of the year, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's commitments [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Employment as a Trigger**: The U3 unemployment rate exceeding its three-year average has historically indicated impending recessions, although this has not yet occurred. A rise to 4.5% by year-end could trigger rate cuts [12]. - **Long-term Economic Divergence**: The last decade has seen a divergence in the relationship between unemployment and deficits, complicating traditional economic models [20]. - **Future Market Performance**: The U.S. market may underperform compared to global markets, as currency appreciation in other markets could enhance investment returns in dollars [31]. - **End of American Exceptionalism**: The dollar has begun a prolonged decline, suggesting that while U.S. equities may not perform poorly, the overall outlook is less optimistic [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows and arbitrage tracking. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various commodities were reported. For example, the closing price of BMD's August palm oil was 4086.00, with a previous day's decline of 4.48% and an overnight decline of - 0.41%. Brent's August crude oil on ICE closed at 72.50, with a previous day's decline of - 3.56% and an overnight increase of 1.47% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of several currency exchange rates were also given, such as the US dollar index at 98.12 with a change of 0.01% [1]. 02 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions were presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8840, with a basis of 400 and a basis change of - 90 [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium changes of imported soybeans from different regions were also provided, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans at 172 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 456 dollars per ton [2]. 03 重要基本面信息 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from June 21 - 25 shows that temperatures will be higher than normal, and precipitation will be normal to above the median [3]. - In the US Midwest, there will be scattered showers, which are not conducive to field operations. The overall weather pattern may be similar to last week, increasing soil moisture in the west but hindering field work [5]. - International supply - demand information includes a 4% decrease in Malaysian palm oil production from June 1 - 15, an increase in palm oil exports, potential cost increases in Malaysia's oleochemical industry due to tax changes, and details on US soybean growth, export, and crushing data [7][8]. - Domestic supply - demand information shows an increase in the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil on June 16, changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, and changes in the commercial inventories of palm oil, soybean oil, and imported soybeans [13][14]. 04 宏观要闻 - International news includes the probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in June and July, the US June New York Fed manufacturing index, and OPEC's monthly report on global crude oil demand and production [17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operation, unemployment rates, industrial added - value, social consumer goods retail sales, and real - estate development data [19]. 05 资金流向 On June 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 5.11 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 2.867 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net capital outflow of 7.977 billion yuan [22]. 06 套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong increased from 3.4% to 3.5% between February-April 2025 and March-May 2025, respectively [1] - The underemployment rate also rose from 1.3% to 1.4% during the same period [1] - Total employment decreased by approximately 12,400 individuals, from 3,677,100 to 3,664,700 [1] - The total labor force declined by about 6,000, from 3,806,500 to 3,800,500 [1] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by around 6,400, from 129,400 to 135,800 [1] - The number of underemployed individuals rose by approximately 6,000, from 47,600 to 53,600 [1] Group 2 - The Secretary for Labour and Welfare noted that the slight increase in the unemployment rate reflects ongoing uncertainties in the external environment and changes in consumer behavior [2] - The labor market may be further impacted by the influx of new graduates and school leavers in the coming months [2] - Despite these challenges, the local economy is expected to grow by 2% to 3% this year, supported by a record number of local and foreign registered companies [2]

智通财经6月17日电，香港3-5月失业率为3.5%。 ...

中国香港5月三个月失业率 3.5%，预期3.5%，前值3.40%。 ...

市场普遍认为周四凌晨美联储会议的结果已无悬念，预测美联储维持利率不变的概率超过99%，但一些 专家担忧美联储将"错过最佳行动时机"。 罗兰和米斯金预计，美联储可能等到8月杰克逊霍尔会议才会释放明确信号，周四的会议或下调核心 PCE通胀预期但维持实际GDP预估。他们警告："依赖数据的美联储若持续观望关税影响数月，终将重 蹈政策滞后的覆辙"。 道富环球顾问首席经济学家莫库塔（Simona Mocuta）主张今夏降息以维系经济增长，当前情境与2024 年9月紧急降息前如出一辙。 她上月接受采访时指出："尽管存在关税风险，但劳动力市场和整体经济比一年前脆弱得多"。联邦雇员 裁减等负面因素尚未体现在数据中，过晚降息可能加剧衰退风险。 目前市场定价反映2025年降息1-2次、2026年再降2次，但多位市场专家对此发出警示。 文艺复兴宏观研究经济主管杜塔（Neil Dutta）表示，虽不预期通胀反弹，但劳动力市场显露的疲态更 令人忧心：失业救济申请持续增加、招聘速率放缓、薪资停滞。3月美联储预测2026年底失业率为 4.3%，如今市场共识已上调至4.6%。 杜塔周一在研讨会上强调："根据失业率走势，他们本应为2026年规划 ...

部分策略师质疑，美联储或正重蹈去年9月政策滞后的覆辙——当时紧急降息50个基点招致广泛批评。 美联储主席鲍威尔还面临政治压力，特朗普上周再度批评其拒绝降息是"愚蠢行为"。 "基于失业率走势，他们本应为2026年规划更多降息空间，"杜塔周一在研讨会上强调。他补充道，房价 下跌削弱家庭净资产，储蓄率上升将抑制消费，客观上反而有助于缓解通胀压力。 北京时间周四凌晨，美联储将公布最新利率决议。当前市场普遍预期维持利率不变的概率超过99%，但 多位专家警告，美联储可能正在错失最佳行动时机。 近月通胀数据虽呈现温和态势，但尚未达到启动降息的门槛。美联储官员强调，仍需等待更多关键数据 以确认价格趋势。与此同时，关税政策的不确定性尚未消散，而伊朗与以色列冲突推高原油成本的担 忧，又为通胀前景增添了新的变数。 当前市场定价反映2025年降息1-2次、2026年再降2次。然而，专家对此预期发出警示。文艺复兴宏观研 究经济主管杜塔指出，尽管不预期通胀反弹，但劳动力市场出现疲软迹象更令人忧心：失业救济申请持 续增加、招聘速度放缓、薪资增长停滞。3月美联储预测2026年底失业率为4.3%，当前市场预期已上调 至4.6%。 道富环球顾问 ...