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股指期货持仓日度跟踪-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:26
股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格: 广发期货研究所 电 话:020-88830760 E-Mail:zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录: 股指期货: IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 国君多空头明显减仓 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 总持仓下降 | 中信国君多空头均减仓千手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信国君多空头均减仓千手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多头大幅减仓 7000 手以上 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 81,541.0 25,313.0 37,469.0 89,544.0 -29,611.0 -11,156.0 -19,814.0 -28,914.0 -40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 IF IH IC IM 主 ...
A股三大股指盘初拉升,深证成指、创业板指转涨,沪指跌幅收窄至不足0.1%。
news flash· 2025-06-23 01:42
Group 1 - The three major A-share indices experienced an initial rise, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index turning positive, while the Shanghai Composite Index's decline narrowed to less than 0.1% [1]
国信期货金融周报:中东动荡,股指回落债震荡-20250623
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:42
研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明:本报告以投资者教育为目的,不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源:wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明:本报告以投资者教育为目的,不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源:wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源:wind 国信期货 免责声明:本报告以投资者教育为目的,不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源:wind 国信期货 免责声明:本报告以投资者教育为目的,不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250623
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:27
宝城期货股指期货早报(2025 年 6 月 23 日) ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注: 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:上涨 参考观点:区间震荡 核心逻辑:上周五各股指走势震荡分化,其中 IH 与 IF 震荡小幅收涨,IC 与 IM 震荡小幅收跌。消息 面,央行公布 6 月 LPR 报价,与上月持平,符 ...
股指期货:阶段性扰动阶段,大趋势不变
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:21
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 23 日 股指期货:阶段性扰动阶段,大趋势不变 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、 市场回顾与展望:上周消息面事件较多,包括经济数据、LPR 发布,陆家嘴论坛、美联储议息会 议召开等。但最终市场走势下行,我们认为核心驱动在于,中东再生战事,陆家嘴论坛政策以行业政策为 主,因此在国内驱动缺乏利多,外部利空增加的环境下,行情重心回落。风格方面,在外部风险增加环境 下,风险偏好回落对小微盘股的扰动更为明显,成长风格跌幅更大。 近期市场对于小微盘交易拥挤担忧程度较大,而消息面因地缘扰动加剧,内部对冲有限,导致资金顺 势出现获利了结动作,带来行情的调整。对于当下的外部扰动消息,周末似乎仍有潜在升级可能,不过, 就像贸易战,对地缘事件的预测如同水中捞月,因此重预测不如重应对。我们认为基于当前的宏观基本面 趋势来看,今年股市依然是依靠拉估值带动的震荡走升行情。不过,目前市场估值并没有较高的安全边 际,小微盘的拥挤交易一旦转向,也容易出现一定的调整。因此我们认为后期行情上,继续保持多头心 态,但是须结合行情调整幅度(技术面 ...
6月23日电,美股股指期货小幅下跌,其中纳指期货跌0.7%,标普500指数期货跌0.6%。
news flash· 2025-06-22 22:07
Group 1 - U.S. stock index futures experienced a slight decline, with Nasdaq futures down by 0.7% and S&P 500 index futures down by 0.6% [1]
金工策略周报-20250622
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 13:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market showed a continuous downward trend, with pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributing to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributing to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, and the basis strengthened [4]. - For the bond futures market, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The net value of the multi - factor timing strategy for bond futures increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish. The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage strategy for bond futures increased, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. - In the commodity market, last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise, with the term structure factors performing the best, followed by the price - volume trend factors [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market showed a continuous downward trend, and the trading volume of each variety increased month - on - month, with the basis strengthening. Pharmaceutical and biological and power equipment contributed to the main decline of the CSI 300 Index, and pharmaceutical and biological and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main decline of the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis of stock index futures strengthened significantly. After the dividend adjustment of IC and IM, the discounts converged to 8.6% and 12.1% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the inter - period arbitrage strategy, and short - selling hedging is recommended to hold near - month contracts to avoid the risk of further basis convergence [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the strategy net value declined significantly last week, with the annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factors losing 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor gave reverse arbitrage signals for IH, IF, and IM, and a positive arbitrage signal for IC [5]. - The net value of the cross - variety arbitrage timing strategy lost 0.1% last week. The cross - variety momentum signals performed poorly, and all portfolios were currently empty [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy models were profitable last week, with the single - factor equal - weight, OLS, and XGB models earning 0.2%, 0%, and 1.2% respectively. The bearish signals of the timing models strengthened, with the XGB model bearish on all indices, and the OLS model bullish on the SSE 50 and CSI 300 and bearish on the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 This Week's Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period spreads, the basis of bond futures fluctuated narrowly this week, some contracts experienced CTD switching affected by new bonds, the IRR generally fluctuated at a high level, and the inter - period spread mainly declined. The uncertainty of the inter - period spread increased after a short - term rebound [55]. - For the futures timing strategy, the net value of the multi - factor timing strategy increased this week, and the strategy signals were mostly bullish, with the main bullish factors being the basis factor and high - frequency factor [55]. - In the futures cross - variety arbitrage strategy, the latest signal of the TS - T cross - variety arbitrage strategy was volatile, and the latest signal of the T - TL strategy was bearish [55]. - For the credit bond neutral strategy, the bond futures hedging pressure index based on far - month contracts continued to rebound, and the current credit bond duration rotation plus hedging strategy holds the 1 - 3 - year index with reduced duration and conducts bond futures hedging [55]. 3.3 Commodity CTA 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the domestic commodity market was affected by the conflict situation in the Middle East. Crude oil and related energy and chemical varieties mostly rose, and most commodity factors continued to rise. The term structure factors performed the best, with an average increase of over 1%, followed by the price - volume trend factors, with an average increase of over 0.5%. Only the warehouse receipt factors declined [75]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies had different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, maximum drawdown, recent weekly return, and year - to - date return. For example, the CWFT strategy had an annualized return of 10.1%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.70, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, with a recent weekly return of 0.11% and a year - to - date return of 3.76% [76].
分红对期指的影响20250620
Orient Securities· 2025-06-22 09:49
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to predict the impact of dividends on stock index futures pricing by estimating the dividend points and their influence on futures contracts[6][10][18] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Estimate Component Stocks' Net Profit**: Use annual reports, quick reports, earnings warnings, or analysts' profit forecasts to estimate net profits[21][22] 2. **Calculate Pre-Tax Dividend Total**: Based on the assumption that the dividend payout ratio remains unchanged, calculate the total dividend amount as: $$ \text{Estimated Dividend Total} = \text{Estimated Net Profit} \times \text{Dividend Payout Ratio} $$ If no dividends were distributed in the previous year, assume no dividends this year[26] 3. **Calculate Dividend Impact on Index**: - Dividend Yield: $$ \text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Tax-Adjusted Dividend Total}}{\text{Latest Market Value}} $$ - Dividend Points: $$ \text{Dividend Points Impact} = \text{Stock Weight} \times \text{Dividend Yield} $$ - Adjust stock weights using the formula: $$ w_{it} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + R_1)}{\sum_{1}^{n} w_{i0} \times (1 + R_1)} $$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the initial weight, and \( R_1 \) is the stock's return[23] 4. **Predict Dividend Impact on Futures Contracts**: Aggregate all dividends before the contract's delivery date to calculate the total impact on futures contracts[28] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and logical approach to estimate dividend impacts, but its accuracy depends on the reliability of input assumptions and historical data[18][26] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend Impact Prediction Model - **Dividend Points for July Contracts**: - SSE 50: 40.84 - CSI 300: 38.26 - CSI 500: 19.23 - CSI 1000: 17.88[6][10] - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: -1.91% - CSI 300: 1.35% - CSI 500: 7.37% - CSI 1000: 10.19%[6][10] - **Remaining Dividend Impact on July Contracts**: - SSE 50: 1.53% - CSI 300: 0.99% - CSI 500: 0.34% - CSI 1000: 0.30%[14] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Theoretical Pricing Model for Stock Index Futures - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor calculates the theoretical price of stock index futures based on the no-arbitrage principle, considering dividends and risk-free rates[30][31] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Discrete Dividend Distribution**: $$ D = \sum_{i=1}^{m} \frac{D_i}{(1 + r_i)} $$ where \( D_i \) is the dividend amount at time \( t_i \), and \( r_i \) is the risk-free rate between \( t_i \) and \( t \)[30] The theoretical futures price is: $$ F_t = (S_t - D)(1 + r) $$ 2. **Continuous Dividend Distribution**: $$ F_t = S_t \cdot e^{(r-d)(T-t)} $$ where \( d \) is the annualized dividend yield, and \( r \) is the annualized risk-free rate[31] - **Factor Evaluation**: The model is robust under the no-arbitrage assumption but may deviate in real markets due to transaction costs and market frictions[30][31] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Theoretical Pricing Model for Stock Index Futures - **Annualized Hedging Costs (Excluding Dividends)**: - SSE 50: -1.91% - CSI 300: 1.35% - CSI 500: 7.37% - CSI 1000: 10.19%[6][10] - **Remaining Dividend Impact on July Contracts**: - SSE 50: 1.53% - CSI 300: 0.99% - CSI 500: 0.34% - CSI 1000: 0.30%[14]
埃及股指下跌1.5%。以色列TA35股指开盘上涨0.9%。此前美国袭击伊朗核设施。
news flash· 2025-06-22 07:09
埃及股指下跌1.5%。以色列TA35股指开盘上涨0.9%。此前美国袭击伊朗核设施。 ...