Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and Japan, where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will receive 90% of the profits from this investment [1][2] - The agreement is expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S. and includes Japan opening its market for trade in various sectors such as automobiles, trucks, rice, and other agricultural products [1] - Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the U.S. as part of the agreement, which aims to adjust the unequal structure in key industries between the two countries [1][2] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has indicated that he has received a report from the economic revitalization minister, indicating a consensus on the negotiations prior to the agreement [2] - The recent electoral defeat of Ishiba's ruling coalition has led experts to suggest that reaching a tariff agreement with the U.S. could stabilize Japan's political situation and support Ishiba's position [2] - The trade and tariff negotiations with the U.S. have become a critical issue in Japanese politics, particularly concerning the need to address the unequal structure in agricultural and high-tech sectors [2]

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and Japan was reached after eight rounds of negotiations, with significant implications for both economies [1][2] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese products exported to the US from 25% to 15%, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US retaining 90% of the profits [2][4] - Japan will open its market to US products, including automobiles, rice, and other agricultural goods, which indicates a major concession from Japan [2][4] Group 2 - In the short term, the agreement is seen as a relief for Japan, particularly for its automotive industry, which exports 1.37 million vehicles to the US, accounting for 34% of Japan's total exports to the US [4] - Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 index surged by over 800 points, closing up 1,396.40 points or 3.51%, indicating increased market confidence [4] - However, the long-term implications suggest that Japan's concessions may lead to significant fiscal pressure and potential hollowing out of domestic industries as companies shift operations to the US [4][5] Group 3 - The trade agreement may alter the competitive landscape for China, as Japan's increased imports of US agricultural products could reduce its imports from other countries, including China [7] - Japanese companies may invest more in the US to avoid tariffs, potentially decreasing their investments in China, which could impact China's related industries [7] - The strengthened supply chain cooperation between Japan and the US in sectors like semiconductors and steel may marginalize Chinese industries, leading to challenges in stability and upgrading of China's industrial chain [7][8]

据央视新闻，当地时间23日，日本首相石破茂在直播记者会上称，日本与美国就关税问题达成一致，美方将向日本征收15%的关税，并增加进口 美国大米。该协议还包括日本向美国投资5500亿美元的承诺。 这一与关键协议缓解了市场对关税战的担忧。亚洲股市基准指数跳涨近2%至四年高位，帮助MSCI全球股指将2025年涨幅扩大至11%。日本股市 创历史新高，丰田汽车公司股价飙升，日元小幅上涨。 投资者押注关税突破，欧洲汽车股全面上涨 特朗普在社交平台Truth Social上称这项"大规模"贸易协议"可能是有史以来最大的协议"。日本首相石破茂对此表示欢迎，据报道，他称这标志 着"在与美国存在贸易顺差的国家中关税最低"。 Rayliant Global Advisors Ltd.投资组合管理主管Phillip Wool表示： "这基本符合我们对特朗普的预期。华盛顿现在真正关心的是达成标题性协议，让双方都能声称在贸易谈判中取得胜利，但让我们远离 全面贸易战可能带来的严重经济后果。" 花旗经济学家Katsuhiko Aiba表示，华盛顿和东京将汽车关税降至15%的协议可能影响与其他主要汽车出口国的谈判进程，特别是欧盟和韩国。 欧股开 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced volatility, briefly surpassing 3600 points before retreating, with mixed performance across major indices [12][13] - The market saw 1271 stocks rise, with 56 hitting the daily limit up, while 4027 stocks declined [14][15] - The construction and cement sectors showed divergence, with companies like China Power Construction and Huaxin Cement hitting the daily limit up, while most stocks retreated [16] Group 2 - Japanese stock market surged over 1400 points, driven by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, particularly benefiting the automotive sector [4][10] - Major Japanese automakers saw significant stock price increases, with Honda up over 11%, Toyota nearly 15%, and Mazda soaring over 17% [7] - The agreement reduced tariffs from 25% to 15%, providing short-term confidence to the market despite ongoing challenges from competition [10][11]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9487, with a recent price of 9476, reflecting a 0.94% increase from the opening price of 9442 [1] - The highest price reached today was 9526, while the lowest was 9390, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The market's risk appetite has increased following President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with Japan, leading to a nearly 4% rise in the Japanese stock market and a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index since October of last year [3] Group 2 - The trade agreement includes a reduction in tariffs on Japanese products from a threatened 25% to 15%, which may further enhance market risk appetite and reduce demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3] - The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a two-week low, and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for silver prices [3] - Analysts suggest that if more trade agreements are reached before August, it could further boost risk appetite and weaken gold demand, although a continued weak dollar may allow gold prices to rise to $3500 [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently in a bullish trend, with recent highs around 9540, although there has been some pullback without forming a top pattern [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at 9350 and 9250, with a break below 9350 indicating a potential shift from strong to weak momentum [4]

新华社北京7月23日电 美国总统特朗普22日在社交媒体上先后宣布，美国与菲律宾、日本达成贸易 协议，并称美日达成的是有史以来最大规模贸易协议。 特朗普政府一天之内高调发布美日、美菲贸易协议，披露与印度尼西亚贸易协议细节，并预告与欧 盟即将开展的谈判情况，意在形成美方推进贸易谈判的舆论声势。不过，从美日协议等细节观察，美为 达成协议也作出不小让步。同时，部分贸易伙伴并未受已达成贸易协议影响，甚至对美谈判立场转向强 硬。 以让步推动"最大规模协议"？ 特朗普称，根据协议，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，美国将获得投资利润的90%。日本将向美国 开放汽车、卡车、大米及某些其他农产品和商品市场。美国将对日本输美产品征收15%的关税。 日本是美国主要贸易伙伴之一，两国因贸易逆差、汇率和汽车市场准入等发生过贸易摩擦。特朗普 本月7日曾致信日本首相石破茂，宣布将自8月1日起把几乎所有日本输美商品关税提高至25%。 负责谈判的经济再生大臣赤泽亮正22日当天在社交媒体上发文称"任务完成"。 石破茂23日晚些时候披露，根据协议，美国对日本汽车关税税率将降至15%。在日本舆论看来，作 为日美谈判焦点的汽车关税下调幅度超出预期，反映 ...

7月23日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。当地时间22日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国与日本达 成贸易协议，日本将向美国支付15%的对等关税。会上，路透社记者提问，中方对此有何评论？郭嘉昆 回应，中方一贯主张各方通过平等对话协商解决经贸分歧，维护良好的国际经贸合作环境。(智通财经) ...

7月23日午后，日本股市涨幅扩大。截至收盘，日经225指数收盘上涨3.51%，报41171.32点， 较上一交易日大涨近1400点。据新华社23日下午消息，日本首相石破茂重申留任意向。 汽车股集体大涨，马自达汽车涨近18%，斯巴鲁涨超15%，丰田汽车涨超14%，三菱汽车涨超 12%，本田汽车涨超10%。日本东证银行指数涨2.8%。 | | 994.1 +150.0 +17.77% | | | | | 马自达汽车 7261 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSE JPY 15:30:01 延时20分钟 | | | | | | 1 4 + | | 卖一 | | | रेस | -5.47% 120日 | | -2.69% | | 买一 | 994.1 | 257900 | 5日 | 14.47% 250日 | | -31.34% | | 总量 | 4931.86万 换手 | 7.81% | 20日 | 19.61% 52周高 | | 1469.19 | | 现手 | 7429000 量比 | 8.99 | 60日 | 16.66% 52周低 | | ...

作为过去十多年来日本央行货币政策操盘手之一，内田真一的观点被视为日本未来货币政策走向的重要 风向标。内田真一重申，日本央行的立场是，只要经济前景兑现，就将继续加息。这位副行长指出，当 前经济与通胀风险偏向下行，核心消费者价格有可能在某一时点跌破2%。不过，他也指出，食品价格 的上行压力正在显现。 智通财经APP获悉，在美国总统特朗普宣布与日本达成贸易协议后不久，日本央行副行长内田真一 (Shinichi Uchida)在一次演讲中表示，当前并没有立即上调基准利率的迫切需要。内田真一表示："在经 济活动和物价前景充满不确定性的前提下，日本央行需要调整货币政策，以在上行和下行风险之间取得 最佳平衡。" 当地时间7月22日，特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议：对日关税税率为15%及日本 5500亿美元对美投资。15%的关税水平低于此前特朗普预告将于8月1日起生效的25%关税水平。特朗普 表示，按照其指示，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，美国将获得其中90%的利润。这项协议将创造数十 万个就业岗位。特朗普还称，或许最重要的是，日本将开放其市场进行贸易，包括汽车、卡车、大米以 及其他部分农产品和商品。日本将向 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The current crude oil market lacks clear drivers and will continue to fluctuate. EU - US trade negotiations and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts are attracting attention [1][9]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continues to face supply pressure. It is advisable to hold the spread short - position for low - sulfur fuel oil [1][3]. - The asphalt market has limited supply increments. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - The polyester market is affected by the restart of some devices. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state. The EG price is supported in the short term, and the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - The rubber market has increased in recent days due to raw material support and the macro - environment. However, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. - The methanol market has an increase in inventory. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - The PVC market has a slight improvement in enterprise operations, but demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the WTI August contract closed down $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; the Brent September contract closed down $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel, a 0.90% decline; SC2509 closed at 503.5 yuan per barrel, down 2.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.55% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending July 18, US crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.48 million barrels. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results, and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts for 2025 are attracting attention. The market lacks clear drivers, and the oil price will fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.8% at 3,581 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The expected arrival volume from Europe in July will increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons, and Singapore is expected to receive about 2.1 - 2.2 million tons of Western low - sulfur fuel oil in July, higher than 1.7 - 1.8 million tons in June. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is facing supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short - position [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.42% at 3,657 yuan per ton. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans due to negative profits, and some refineries in Shandong will be under maintenance in mid - August. The supply increment is limited. The demand is affected by rainfall, but there is supportive potential after the rainy season. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.29%; the spot offer was at a premium of 3 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,447 yuan per ton, up 0.84%, with the basis decreasing by 10 yuan per ton to 60 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,490 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,886 yuan per ton, up 0.35%. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shanxi has restarted and produced products, and a 300,000 - ton/year plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting and is expected to produce products around the end of July. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and the EG price is supported in the short term, while the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 15,060 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,855 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,100 yuan per ton. Typhoon Webb has shifted northward, but it is still rainy in Hainan, Yunnan, and Vietnam. The output is blocked, and processing plants have difficulty in collecting latex. The Thai raw material price has increased, and the demand is stable. The price has increased recently, but investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2,412 yuan per ton on Tuesday, the Inner Mongolia northern - line price was 1,990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $270 - 274 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $328 - 333 per ton. The Iranian device load has recovered to the high point, and the arrival volume has increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the subsequent start - up is expected to remain stable, with inventory continuing to increase. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 7,050 - 7,150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton, and the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 702 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,924 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,403 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,355 yuan per ton. The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand, and if the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market offer rose slightly, with the calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 5,000 - 5,100 yuan per ton, and the ethylene - based material at 4,950 - 5,300 yuan per ton. The North China PVC market price was adjusted narrowly, and the South China PVC market price was firm. The enterprise operation has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened recently, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on July 23, 2025 are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the latest basis rate quantiles in historical data for multiple products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The US is in urgent trade negotiations with its partners. The crude oil price has declined for three consecutive trading days due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The EU - US trade negotiation deadline is August 1. If no agreement is reached, the US will impose a 30% tariff on most EU export products [9]. - The Canadian Prime Minister has lowered the expectation of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days. The US has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if no agreement is reached by August 1 [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [24][26][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - low sulfur spreads of fuel oil, fuel oil/asphalt ratios, etc. [55][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc. [64][65][67]