宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.27 2025-07-28 美日协议提振市场信心，欧央行按兵不动 [Table_Authors] 海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 美日贸易谈判取得进展，提振全球市场情绪，本周全球股市普遍上涨。高利率与高 不确定性下，美国房地产市场需求疲弱，企业资本开支相对谨慎，制造业 PMI 走弱 但服务业表现仍强，经济尚具有韧性。欧央行维持利率不变，9 月或继续按兵不动。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现：上周（2025.7.21-2025.7.25），全球大类资产价 格中，主要经济体股市普遍上涨。其中，日经 225 上涨 4.1%，恒生 指数上涨 2.3%，上证综指上涨 1.7%，标普 500 指数上涨 1.5%，发 达市场股票指数上涨 1.4%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 0.7%。大宗商品 价格涨跌互现，其中，COMEX 铜上涨 4.0%，南华商品指数上涨 2.7%， 伦敦金现下跌 0.4%，标普-高盛商品指数下跌 1.1% ...

美欧达成贸易协议后，欧洲垃圾债券信用违约掉期跌至逾三年低点，报266个基点。 ...

欧洲央行管委卡兹米尔：美欧贸易协议减少不确定性，但目前尚不清楚对通胀的影响。 ...

对于美欧达成的新贸易协议，荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管布热斯基表示，关税是美国用来胁迫欧洲方面 的手段，美欧新贸易协议可能给欧盟经济带来更大的负面影响。 美国总统特朗普和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩于当地时间7月27日在英国苏格兰举行非正式会晤，会后特 朗普称美欧达成新贸易协议共识。 ...

菲律宾央行行长：今年有望再降息两次。与美国的贸易协议有利于经济增长。 ...

裕信银行：美欧达成不平衡协议总比未达成要好 金十数据7月28日讯，意大利裕信银行经济学家在一份报告中说，欧盟和美国之间达成一项不对称协议 总比没达成协议好。不过，鉴于美国对欧盟征收的关税远高于欧盟对美国征收的关税，这对欧盟来说可 能不是一笔好交易。"然而，该协议对欧洲经济和市场来说可能已经足够好了，因为它消除了贸易紧张 局势升级的可能性。"该协议几乎不会改变欧盟的宏观经济前景或欧洲央行的货币政策。经济学家表 示，到目前为止，关税并没有对市场、企业和家庭的信心造成太大打击。 ...

泰柬领导人抵达马来西亚总理官邸。 据泰国军方7月28日消息，泰柬边境冲突已进入第5天，柬埔寨方面自27日23时起持续发动攻击，接连在午夜、 凌晨1时、凌晨3时直至天亮后均未停火，泰方士兵始终处于高度戒备状态。 同日，柬埔寨国防部发言人玛丽淑洁达在新闻发布会上表示，尽管柬埔寨首相与泰国代理总理计划在马来西亚 举行特别会晤，泰国仍然在28日凌晨对柬埔寨发动袭击。她还称，截至27日，受柬泰冲突影响，柬方共有 39828个家庭的134707人撤离家园，其中包括孕妇、老人、残疾人和儿童。五个省份的600多所学校关闭，影响 到约15万名学生和6000名教师。 外交部就柬泰边境冲突发声 当地时间28日，泰国代理总理普坦、柬埔寨首相洪玛奈抵达马来西亚总理官邸。 当日下午，普坦将与洪玛奈在马来西亚总理官邸举行会谈，讨论边境冲突问题。此次会议由东盟轮值主席国马 来西亚总理安瓦尔主持。预计泰柬双方将就停火问题展开磋商。 柬埔寨和泰国24日以来在两国边境地区发生冲突，双方互相指责对方违反国际法。根据双方公布的数据，冲突 已造成上百人伤亡，大批民众被迫疏散至安全区域。 泰方称柬方彻夜开火 柬方称冲突致十余万人离开家园 外交部发言人27 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the EU's decision to reduce car import tariffs from 27.5% to 15% is expected to boost profits for European car manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes by €4 billion [1] - Analysts indicate that this trade agreement will significantly benefit the European automotive sector, leading to a rise in stock prices for these companies [1] - Despite the reduction in tariffs, the German automotive industry association warns that the new agreement will still have a detrimental impact on the automotive industry compared to the previous 2.5% tariffs before Trump's trade measures [1]

Group 1 - The new tariff agreement between the US and the EU involves a 15% uniform tariff on EU goods entering the US, which is lower than the previously threatened 30% [2] - The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy and military equipment over the coming years [2] - The agreement aims to provide stability and predictability in trade relations between the two major economies [2][3] Group 2 - For Germany, the agreement includes a significant reduction in tariffs on automobiles, which were previously as high as 27.5%, now reduced to 15% [3] - The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that the agreement will result in a 0.13 percentage point loss in Germany's economic growth annually, with the automotive sector being particularly affected [3] - Some EU products remain exempt from the new tariffs, including aircraft parts and certain chemicals, while steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50% [3] Group 3 - Criticism of the agreement highlights its imbalance, with concerns that the EU's investment may come at the expense of regional interests [4] - The German Foreign Trade Association described the agreement as a "painful compromise," emphasizing that each percentage point increase in tariffs compresses the survival space for retailers [4] - The US has reached similar agreements with other countries, including Japan, which involves a 15% tariff on Japanese goods in exchange for significant investments and orders [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the US and EU have reached a trade agreement that lowers tariffs on automobiles and other goods to 15%, which is half of the previously threatened 30% [1][2] - The EU's investment and purchase of US products will reach $135 million as part of the agreement [5][9] - The agreement is described as potentially the largest trade agreement in history, with US-EU trade accounting for 44% of global trade [2] Group 2 - The EU has made concessions to reach this agreement, which may lead to European funds flowing to the US instead of supporting local industries [7] - The EU's increased purchase of US energy products could reduce reliance on Russian energy but may increase dependence on the US, raising concerns about energy security [7] - Some key areas, such as tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits, remain undetermined, leaving EU exports in these sectors facing uncertainty [11] Group 3 - Criticism has emerged regarding the agreement being imbalanced and potentially detrimental to European interests, with concerns about the high tariff levels being unsustainable in the long term [12][25] - The EU's complex political structure and differing national interests may hinder its ability to respond effectively to US pressure in trade negotiations [14][21] - In contrast, China has adopted a long-term strategic approach in trade negotiations, focusing on multilateral cooperation and reducing reliance on single markets [15][17][23] Group 4 - The article suggests that Europe may have missed opportunities to learn from China's trade strategies, which emphasize economic independence and strategic autonomy [19][21] - The EU's reliance on the US market and its challenges in forming a unified trade strategy highlight vulnerabilities in its trade negotiations [25]