1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to be strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and unresolved LME warehouse receipt issues, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is concluded, the tight copper supply pattern in non - US regions is difficult to reverse. The reference price range for the main contract is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is in a state of slight surplus due to high - capacity operation. The reference price range for the main contract is 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels in the short term. Although macro factors and low inventory support the price, consumption in the off - season restricts its upward space. The reference price range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show weak oscillations. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight in the short term, and the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season. The reference price range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices rebounded in the short term driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not fundamentally improved. In the medium - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. The reference price range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short term. Although macro policies boost market sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the cost support for refined nickel has weakened. The reference price range for the main contract is 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term under macro support. The fundamentals still face pressure, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The reference price range for the main contract is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to slow supply - side recovery. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. The market is in a state of contradiction between sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure is obvious, and the price is restricted from rising. It is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to changes in macro expectations [17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 356.71 yuan/ton to - 1,128 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; in May, electrolytic copper imports were 0.2531 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 19.11% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.69% day - on - day [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.86% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 2.29% day - on - day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0, a month - on - month decrease of 100%; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.0261 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 6.74% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%; in May, refined zinc imports were 0.0267 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36%. - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 3.60% week - on - week, and LME inventory decreased by 1.28% day - on - day [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 194 dollars/ton; the futures import profit and loss improved by 142 yuan/ton to - 2,419 yuan/ton [10]. Supply and Inventory - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.11% day - on - day [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton. - The 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production remained unchanged at 0.36 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.28% week - on - week, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% day - on - day [12]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 138.42% to - 48.99 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. - SHEF inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 2.84% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1.12% to 632 dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.74%. - In May, lithium carbonate imports were 21,146 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.37%; lithium carbonate exports were 287 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.95%. - Lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month in June [17].

Market Overview - Chinese markets showed mixed trends with military and tech sectors declining, while some industries rose due to "anti-involution" measures[3] - European markets closed higher, influenced by political events in the UK, while US tech stocks rebounded, pushing the S&P 500 to a new high[3] Commodity and Forex - Oil prices rose by 3% following the US-Vietnam trade agreement, with New York crude oil reaching $67.45 per barrel[28] - Copper prices surpassed $10,000, marking a high since March, while gold prices slightly increased to $3,307.7 per ounce[28] Fixed Income - Global bond markets declined due to UK fiscal concerns, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.28%[31] - Asian bond markets remained stable, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[31] A-Share Market - A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3,454 points and the Shenzhen Component down 0.61%[15] - The military sector continued to retreat, while steel and photovoltaic stocks surged due to production limits[15] Key Corporate Developments - Vipshop (VIPS US) projected a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year for Q2 2025, with a focus on its outlet business[9] - Tesla's global quarterly sales fell by 13% year-on-year, while Xiaomi's car exports are not expected until 2027[6] Regional Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, driven by strong performances in the gaming and materials sectors, while tech stocks faced declines[11] - The S&P Mexico IPC Index increased by 0.92%, with all sectors showing gains, particularly industrials[9]

在当下中国经济新旧动能转换的关键时期，产业格局正经历深刻变革，新产业蓬勃兴起，传统产业加速 升级。然而，"内卷式"竞争这一顽疾却在部分行业悄然滋生。部分光伏、储能等领域企业为争夺市场份 额，不惜低价倾销，扰乱市场秩序。 多位受访的业内人士对中国证券报记者表示，"内卷式"竞争的深层次原因主要是技术创新不足、专利保 护缺失、市场信号不清等。面对这一困境，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局等多部门密集出台整治举 措，力求斩断"内卷"枷锁。与此同时，业内头部企业纷纷探索破局之道，以模式创新、技术革新及强化 专利保护为利刃，在激烈竞争中开辟差异化发展路径，引领行业从"价格内卷"向"价值创造"转型。 以模式创新走差异化之路 在市场供求关系变化的背景下，光伏、储能行业的上市公司逐渐从"供给侧创新"向"需求侧创新"转变， 挖掘贴近市场需求的发展新模式。 "未来靠单独生产组件来'卷'产品，已经不能满足客户的需求，未来光伏产品要从过去的'单一性'向'系 统性'转变，以模式创新实现差异化发展。"天合光能战略、产品与市场负责人张映斌在接受中国证券报 记者采访时表示，随着不同细分场景需求的日渐多元，为客户提供综合解决方案将是光伏行业破除"内 ...

Group 1 - The National People's Congress Standing Committee is set to review the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, focusing on addressing "involution" competition and enhancing fair competition review systems [1][2] - The revised law aims to clarify the obligations of platform operators in handling unfair competition behaviors among platform users, including the misuse of trademarks and misleading search keywords [1] - The law will also define the criteria for behaviors such as data rights infringement and malicious trading, while addressing issues related to large enterprises delaying payments to small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2 - The draft revision of the Civil Aviation Law will also be reviewed, with a focus on promoting the development of the civil aviation industry, particularly in manufacturing and low-altitude economy [2] - New provisions will be added to support the establishment of an innovation system in civil aviation manufacturing, emphasizing the importance of key technology research and development [2] - The law will enhance passenger rights protection by including specific terms related to ticket sales, refunds, and flight delays, ensuring better arrangements for passengers during disruptions [2]

"卷自己不卷商家，补用户也补商家"！当下，我国零售业市场规模大、经营主体多，仍存在优质供给不 足、"内卷式"竞争等问题。面对当下的消费趋势，提高供给质量无疑是化解矛盾的"良药"。好货不贵， 尤为关键。 淘宝闪购500亿直补的举措，不仅包括面向消费者的各种优惠，实现"好货不贵"；也包括面向商家的店 铺补贴、商品补贴、配送补贴、免佣减佣等措施，此举有效保障了商家的合理利润空间，为商家创造更 大的生意增量。 此前，阿里巴巴整合淘天、饿了么和飞猪的核心资源，以技术创新和商业模式创新构建大消费平台，为 用户创造更丰富优质的生活消费体验，为品牌商家带来新的生意增长机会。核心产品淘宝闪购5月上线 以来，日订单量迅速突破6000万单。 今年以来，各地区各部门分别围绕商圈品质提升、以旧换新补贴、培育建设国际消费中心城市、电子商 务高质量发展等多个方面出台系列提振消费政策，为振兴新消费布局谋势。 在提振消费的道路上，电商平台凭借其高效的供应链管理和线上线下融合的购物体验，填补了市场需求 缺口，扎实推动提振消费各项政策措施更快更好落地见效。 现阶段，零售新消费到底该如何持续发力，继续提升并取得实效？ 7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布达500 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of recovery with an increase in the logistics prosperity index to 50.8% in June 2025, indicating a slight month-on-month improvement despite challenges posed by extreme weather conditions and operational pressures [1] Logistics Business Volume and Service Prices - In June, the business volume index and logistics service price index increased by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively, with the business volume index remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [2] - The recovery in business volume is attributed to improved demand in the eastern region and a reduction in external shocks to the supply chain [2] - The central and western regions outperformed the national average with business volume indices of 51% and 52.8%, while the eastern region's index was below the national level but showed a significant month-on-month increase [2] - Various sectors, including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and express delivery, reported business volume indices in the prosperity zone, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh produce [2] Service Prices and Profitability Challenges - Service prices in several sectors, including rail, road, water, air transport, and express delivery, saw increases of 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points [3] - Despite the rise in service prices, the industry faces ongoing competitive pressures and operational challenges, leading to sustained pressure on profitability and cash flow [3] - The main business cost index rose by 0.3 percentage points in June, with indices for rail, air transport, and express delivery exceeding 55% [3] - The cash turnover rate index fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.5%, and the main business profit index decreased for the second consecutive month [3] Logistics Investment Trends - Logistics infrastructure investment showed stable growth, with the fixed asset investment completion index rising by 0.3 percentage points in June [4] - All sectors, except warehousing, maintained a recovery trend, with key projects in transportation logistics hubs progressing smoothly [4] - The business activity expectation index remained above 55% for four consecutive months, indicating positive market expectations [4] Policy and Financial Support - New policy financial tools are being developed to support various sectors, including traditional infrastructure, technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade [5] - The support for foreign trade may include funding for export-oriented enterprises, cross-border e-commerce platforms, and related logistics infrastructure [5] - These financial tools are expected to provide sustained momentum for high-quality economic development [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the integration of Grok voice assistant into Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus V3, marking a significant advancement in human-machine interaction [6] - The opening of the world's largest embodied intelligence data factory by Paccini in Tianjin aims to address the scarcity of high-quality datasets crucial for the development of robotics [6] - Yushu Technology has reported annual revenue exceeding 1 billion RMB, indicating strong growth and successful C-round financing [6] - The People's Daily emphasizes the need to eliminate "involution" competition to achieve high-quality development, advocating for market-oriented reforms [6] - In May 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 21.5 million green certificates, with an average trading price of 2.73 RMB per certificate, reflecting a 18.12% increase month-on-month [6] Market Trends - The report provides an overview of the domestic market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,457.75, up 0.39% [5] - The prices of polysilicon and silicon wafers remain under pressure, with polysilicon prices stable at 35.0 RMB/kg and silicon wafer prices declining [8] - Battery cell prices have also decreased, with N-type battery cells averaging 0.235 RMB/W, down 2.1% from the previous week [8] - The report notes that the market for photovoltaic components is facing high uncertainty, with many manufacturers reducing production [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in BC new technology, supply-side improvements, overseas expansion, and domestic substitution [8] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Aiko, Longi Green Energy, and Xinyi Solar, among others [8] - It suggests actively monitoring companies related to humanoid robots, such as UBTECH and KOLI [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law aims to curb "involutionary competition" in the platform economy, which has led to unsustainable low prices and compromised product quality [1][2][3] Group 1: Involutionary Competition - Involutionary competition is characterized by platforms engaging in price wars to attract users, resulting in reduced product quality and increased pressure on merchants [1][2] - The law prohibits platform operators from forcing merchants to sell products below cost, signaling a shift towards rational competition [2][3] Group 2: Sustainable Low Prices - Sustainable low prices in the health market should be achieved through legitimate means such as technological innovation, economies of scale, and supply chain optimization, ensuring reasonable profits for merchants and real benefits for consumers [1][3] - The revision of the law is not aimed at banning low prices but at eliminating the distortion of price signals caused by involutionary competition, allowing merchants to focus on improving product quality [3]

Group 1 - The central government is accelerating the construction of a unified national market to stabilize market confidence and development amidst increasing economic challenges [1][2] - The recent meeting addressed key issues such as chaotic low-price competition and proposed solutions to enhance product quality and regulate local investment practices [3][4] - The meeting emphasized the importance of internal openness and the need to unify market systems and regulations to strengthen the domestic market, which is crucial for economic stability [5] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the necessity to reform the fiscal and tax systems, as well as the evaluation criteria for government performance, to address deep-seated economic issues [4] - It was noted that the current focus on GDP growth and fiscal revenue in performance assessments has contributed to market chaos, necessitating a shift towards a more balanced evaluation system [4] - The construction of a unified market is seen as a way to leverage China's large domestic market, which includes over 400 million middle-income individuals, to enhance economic resilience [5]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordination and cooperation to achieve these goals [1] - The meeting underscored that advancing Chinese-style modernization requires a focus on the marine economy, aiming to establish a path with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 2 - In June, new car manufacturers reported significant sales figures, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 vehicles, marking a historical high and securing the top position among new forces in car manufacturing [2] - Leap Motor also achieved a record high in new car deliveries for June, reaching 48,006 units, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors followed closely [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' financial capacity to stimulate consumption [3] - Analysts noted that rising stock markets can enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, as increased asset values create a psychological effect of wealth growth [3] Group 4 - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds by 2025, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, accounting for 42.69% of the annual quota [4] - The issuance plan for the second half of the year has been adjusted to be more intensive, with the first issuance scheduled for July 14 [4] Group 5 - In July, several Hong Kong stocks were favored by brokerages, with companies like Pop Mart, Hong Kong Exchanges, and others receiving multiple recommendations from different firms [5] - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for institutional investors, especially with the upcoming mid-year report season [5] Group 6 - The banking sector has seen a continuous rise, with 36 listed banks in A-shares increasing by over 1%, and Suzhou Bank and Xiamen Bank showing notable gains [8] - Analysts attribute this upward trend to recent shareholder meetings focusing on dividends and strategic transformations, laying a foundation for future stock price increases [8] Group 7 - The international copper price surged, reaching a peak of $9,984, driven by market confidence stemming from the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. and inflation expectations [15] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, predicting a peak of $10,050 in August [15] Group 8 - BYD reported a 33.04% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for the first half of the year, totaling approximately 2.146 million units [21] - New and existing companies are expected to see significant profit growth, with projections indicating increases of 50%-100% for several firms in the upcoming half-year [21]