在国家"东数西算"的宏大战略棋盘上，韶关，这座粤北山城，正肩负起粤港澳大湾区国家算力枢纽节点 唯一数据中心集群的时代使命。截至2025年底，这里已汇聚22个数据中心项目，总投资额突破600亿 元，形成了12万标准机架承载能力，可承载18万P算力的规模，华南最大的智能算力池呼之欲出。一座 服务湾区、辐射全国的智算新城加速崛起。 而在每一帧画面精准传输、每一次运算高效完成的背后，一条坚强可靠的"电力生命线"早已悄然织就， 一批南网人的奋斗身影，正为这场深刻的数字变革注入澎湃而稳固的动能。 正在建设中的粤港澳大湾区枢纽韶关数据中心集群。（潘跃鹏 摄） 规划先行，"电力等算力"的战略远见 算力生态的完善，离不开电力的基础保障。时间回溯到2022年，国家发展改革委等四部委批复同意在韶 关建设粤港澳大湾区国家枢纽节点数据中心集群，数字韶关春潮涌动。 南方电网广东韶关供电局变电专业工作人员正在110千伏浈数2变电站检测安装完成的室内GIS设备气密 性。（潘跃鹏 摄） 从那时起，南方电网广东韶关供电局便坚持电力先行，全力推动"电算协同"，编制了配套5座220千伏变 电站及14座110 千伏变电站的供电规划，以超前规划筑牢算力 ...

（二）《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 12月15日，《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》，整理了2015年10月至2025年10月期间有关 扩大内需的重要论述。如2024年中央经济工作会议提到，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动 经济增长的主动力和稳定锚；《关于〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉的 说明》则强调坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，大力提振 消费。 | 图表 19:《求是》发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》 | | --- | | 事件 | 会议 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 过去，我国生产能力滞后，因而把工作直点放在扩大投资、提高生产能力上。现在，产能总体过剩，仍一味靠扩大规模投资 | | 2015/10/29 党的十八届五中全会第二次全体会议 | | 抬高速度,作用有限目边际效用递减。虽然短期内投资可以成为拉动经济增长的重要动力,但最终消费才是经济增长的持久 | | | | 动力 ... | | 2016/1/18 | 省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的十 | 供给 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释放的增量信息与政策信号有何深 意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方向，密集开展会议精神的学习、 解读与部署工作。 各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布 局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。 融 资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变 化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。 其指出"我国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品 消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一 ...

清晨，蔡恒走进中建三局总部大楼办公室。伴着他的脚步声，头顶灯光逐渐亮起，玻璃幕墙外的阳光， 正照亮楼顶、连廊等处1.4万平方米的单晶硅光伏板。 中建三局总部大楼位于湖北武汉东湖高新区高新大道一侧，是"中国光谷"的地标建筑之一。蔡恒在这座 大楼里已经工作了多年，对这里的环境非常熟悉。然而，今年以来，蔡恒发现，这座大楼悄然发生了一 些变化。 走进电梯间，蔡恒按下15层的按钮。"以前电梯启停时，感觉有轻微顿挫感，现在很平稳。"这是因为， 大楼的电梯加装了能量回馈装置，启停更平稳，还能把运行中产生的势能转化为电能回馈电网，节能不 少。 来到工位坐下，柔和的自然光透过玻璃幕墙，铺满蔡恒的桌面。今年，这栋楼的玻璃幕墙贴了层特殊的 隔热膜，透过玻璃眺望，窗外风光一览无余，保温隔热效果也很好。 "在我们这个大楼上班，每天都能直观感受到，绿色生活就在身边。"蔡恒自豪地说。 建筑变"绿"的秘密（延伸阅读） 尹 奎 为啥要贴隔热膜？中建三局城市投资运营有限公司综合能源事业部执行经理施飞介绍，贴上隔热膜后， 隔热率达72%，夏季能大幅阻挡室外热量侵入，冬季能反射室内长波远红外线起到保温作用。仅此一 项，年均可节电25.2万千瓦时，减 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

Group 1 - The Guangdong Province has issued a comprehensive policy document titled "Guangdong Province's Work Plan for Promoting Financial Services for the Construction of a Strong Technological Province," aiming to enhance the financial system to support technological innovation and high-level self-reliance [1] - The plan introduces innovative mechanisms, including the integration of futures tools and a technology innovation index into the financial policy framework, marking a first in supporting the entire lifecycle of technological innovation [1] - Specific initiatives include the development of futures products related to strategic emerging industries, with a focus on refining the new energy futures sector and advancing the research and listing of lithium hydroxide futures [1] Group 2 - The futures products mentioned, such as lithium hydroxide and carbon emission rights, are part of the planning by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which has previously launched various futures and options to support green development industries [2] - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a key policy tool for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals, with the national carbon market expanding from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons in emission coverage this year, increasing the number of regulated enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700 [2] - The introduction of carbon emission futures and options is expected to enhance market liquidity and provide effective risk management tools for participants, thereby strengthening China's position in the international carbon market [3] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has nearly completed the design of the carbon emission futures contract and plans to proceed with its listing while focusing on foundational research and contract design [3] - Future efforts will concentrate on innovative fields such as new energy, new materials, and carbon emissions, with an emphasis on expanding product offerings and enhancing the application of weather indices in futures markets [3] - The exchange aims to strengthen market cultivation services, improve market regulation, and better support green development and initiatives like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Belt and Road Initiative [3]

据介绍，"储诺"超高温热泵储能技术循环效率无衰减，在不同负荷下效率稳定。同时，储能技术参数优 势明显，储热高温560℃以上，低温可达-60℃，储能密度可达每立方米80—120千瓦时，远超常规压缩 空气储能，同等空间下储能容量可提升10倍以上。该技术应用场景广泛，可实现高品质冷热电联供，耦 合新能源大基地、煤电、核电、高耗能等产业，提升绿电比例，满足运行灵活性及节能减排需求。 在"双碳"目标驱动下，长时储能已从"可选项"变为能源转型的"必选项"，推动长时储能技术的创新与应 用刻不容缓。热泵储能技术在构建新型电力系统、保障电力系统安全稳定运行等方面将发挥重要作用， 是未来规模化长时储能的中坚力量。 （文章来源：科技日报） 25日，国家电投集团在北京正式发布全球首套超高温热泵储能技术——"储诺"。相较于传统储能技 术，"储诺"超高温热泵储能技术布置灵活度高，无需依赖特定地理条件，无论是平原电站还是山地产业 园均可快速部署。 热泵储能也被称作卡诺电池。其结合热泵循环与热机循环，可实现电能与热能之间的高效双向转换。该 技术具有储能密度高、容量成本低、储能效率高，且可实现高品质冷热电联供等优势。 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the innovative practices and solid achievements in the industrial development of Yulin City, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Shaanxi Longhua Group Coal Industry Technology Development Co., Ltd. has established a development strategy centered on "graded and quality utilization of coal, high-end fine transformation," with projects including 500,000 tons/year of synthetic ammonia and 800,000 tons/year of urea [1] - The company’s projects contribute to the green and low-carbon circular development of the coal industry and play a significant role in ensuring regional fertilizer supply, which is crucial for national food security [1] Group 2 - The company has implemented advanced water-saving technologies, achieving a 40% to 50% reduction in water consumption per ton of urea compared to industry standards [2] - The establishment of a digital catalytic technology innovation center aims to automate the catalyst research and development process, enhancing safety and repeatability while accelerating scientific output [3] - The agricultural investment group in Shenmu City has created a platform to address issues of market fragmentation and unstable farmer income, ensuring stable supply and pricing of local agricultural products [4]

Group 1: Core Perspectives - Green development is a prominent feature of Chinese-style modernization, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive green transformation in economic and social development as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has prioritized "adhering to 'dual carbon' leadership and promoting comprehensive green transformation" as a key task for the upcoming year [1] Group 2: Ecological Civilization Awareness - Enhancing ecological civilization awareness is crucial for fostering a societal atmosphere that supports environmental protection, requiring the internalization of ecological concepts [2] - There is a need to strengthen public consciousness regarding ecological protection and to integrate ecological education into the national education system [2] Group 3: Industrial Green Transformation - Accelerating the green transformation and upgrading of industries is essential, as industries are significant contributors to energy consumption and pollution [3] - The number of national-level green factories has increased to 6,430, accounting for approximately 20% of total manufacturing output, indicating progress in industrial structure transformation [3] Group 4: Promoting Green Lifestyles - Green development encompasses both production and lifestyle changes, necessitating the promotion of green consumption and living practices [4] - Encouraging the adoption of green products and services, as well as enhancing the supply of such offerings, is vital for fostering a low-carbon lifestyle [4]

中金研究 光伏2026年有望实现供需关系的边际改善，各环节龙头有望扭亏为盈，具备困境反转的投资机会。由于光伏消纳问题突出，倒逼国内电力市场化及调 节性电源发展，储能迎海内外景气共振。 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2026年或是光伏主产业链逆转之年。 光伏主产业链在反内卷的帮助下于2025年下半年逐步见底甚至改善，但财务报表的改善减缓了市场化出清，因此反 内卷的持续推进势在必行，组件顺价或将是核心。我们认为，2026年虽需求阶段性走弱，但供给端反内卷以及龙头企业alpha将帮助部分企业在2026年扭 亏为盈，储能装机带来消纳能力的增强，十五五中后期光伏需求有望修复。 装机走弱下玻璃胶膜分化，关注铜浆及半导体等第二增长曲线。 明年国内装机下滑，玻璃胶膜企业利润情况会出现分化，有海外客户基础的企业会增加 出口占比、利润重心上移，其他企业将面临更加激烈的竞争。银价高企促进银包铜浆料产业化，行业承压下辅材企业积极寻求半导体、存储领域等第二增 长曲线。 估值与节奏： 当前主产业链主要公司估值仍在1xP/B~ 2.5xP/B的历史底部区间，2Q26需求修复+反内卷推进+产品结构优化，有望迎来业绩批量转正 ...