泰国央行行长评论美国关税的影响：美国关税对泰国的影响不如2008年的经济衰退严重。 ...

（转自：明怡宏观随笔） 主要观点 1、 鲍威尔承认当前经济的不确定性极高，但经济数据足够稳健，可以耐心等待硬数据出现迹象后再考 虑利率的调整。 2、 由于特朗普的关税政策出现转变，但最终的贸易框架仍不明朗，美股长期从看空转为中性略谨慎。 正文 事件： 风险提示：海外经济衰退，贸易摩擦升温。 文章来源 报告摘自：2025年5月9日已经发布的《东兴宏观：美联储保持耐心直到硬数据出现信号——5月美国 FOMC点评》研究报告 康明怡 东兴宏观分析师 SAC执业证书编号：S1480519090001 美联储维持当前政策利率水平，同时继续QT。 点评： 鲍威尔承认目前关税引起的不确定性极高，但经济数据非常稳健，可以耐心等待关税影响显现。和3月 相比，潜在关税水平比3月份预期的更高，鲍威尔承认更高的通胀和更高的失业率的不确定性在急剧上 升，但还没有在硬数据中看到关税的负面影响。一季度，经济还是处于稳健状态（solid position）。失 业率很低，接近充分就业率；通胀下行，但仍高于目标2%；货币政策略微限制，总体来说当前的经济 和货币政策位置非常好。由于关税最后落地的程度和时间并不明朗，几乎所有的委员都支持等待，目前 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 5 月 9 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/5/9 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農药 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 氧化铝 | 二债 | 铝 | | | | 棉花 | 五债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 棉纱 | 尿素 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 铁矿石 | 原油 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 工业硅 | 三十债 | 烧碱 | | | | 豆粕 | 十债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 棕櫚油 | 液化石油气 | 燃油 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 纯碱 | | | | | 焦煤 | 短纤 | | | | | 焦炭 | 白糖 | | | | | 塑料 | ...

光大理解，当前关税仅冲击软性指标，尚未损伤硬性数据，美联储势必要对货币政策保持鹰派口径，捍 卫美联储独立性，方能稳定通胀预期。但是，鲍威尔连续在3月和5月FOMC会议后表态，关税对通胀 是"暂时的"冲击，其实也暗含了其在"滞"与"胀"中间，其更加关注通胀一次性抬升后，对于经济和就业 数据的冲击。 年内来看，预计美联储依然存在2-3次的降息空间，重要的触发因素包括消费和就业数据快速恶化、美 国企业债券出现尾部风险、债务上限通过后财政部开启集中发行美债，阶段性放大美债供给压力，或均 需要美联储做出行动予以配合。 风险提示：美国通胀上行速度超预期，经济下行速度超预期，国际贸易冲突加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研究报告称，美联储第三次暂停降息，声明强调经济面临更大的不确 定性，基本符合市场预期。鲍威尔连续在3月和5月FOMC会议后的表态暗含了其更加关注通胀一次性抬 升后，对于经济和就业数据的冲击。年内来看，预计美联储依然存在2-3次的降息空间，重要的触发因 素包括消费和就业数据快速恶化、美国企业债券出现尾部风险、债务上限通过后财政部开启集中发行美 债，阶段性放大美债供给压力，或均需要美联储做出行动予以配合。 ...

• 黄金中期仍处上升趋势，受多重因素支撑，包括美国联储降息犹豫、特朗 普政策不确定性及地缘政治风险，短期回调不改多头格局，预计调整幅度 在 3,150-3,200 美元区间形成底部。 • 特朗普政策反复导致市场对美元资产不信任加剧，美元加速下跌，类似 2016-2017 年"买预期卖现实"模式重现，资金持续流入黄金市场。 • 美国政策不确定性指标已达 2020 年高位，表明市场信心受挫，推动资金 涌入黄金等避险资产，政策不确定性直接促进金价上涨。 • 当前美国实际利率水平与 2005-2007 年相似，联邦基金利率超名义 GDP 增速，预示美国经济面临较大衰退风险，历史上类似情况多伴随经济下行。 • 美国经济衰退过程中，黄金价格通常先小幅下跌约 20%，随后大幅上涨约 67%。中国央行持续购金亦构成支撑，建议右侧离场。 • 预计 2025 年美国通胀下行风险大于上行风险，油价和二手车价格是关键 指标，四月 CPI 或降至 2.2%左右，美国更可能进入衰退而非滞胀。 • 地缘政治风险、中美关税谈判及美联储降息幅度影响黄金未来走势。降息 尚未充分进行，ETF 持有量预计增加，未来一到两个月甚至一个季度内， 黄金仍 ...

9棉期新闻 深夜有料 | 22次谈及"等 待"，鲍威尔到底在怕啥? 扫码看新闻 北京时间5月8日凌晨结束的5月美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议上，美联储如期"按兵不 动"，维持基准利率在4.25~4.5%水平，为其连续第三次会议维持利率不变。 纵观整场会议，美联储认为"经济增长的不确定性进一步上升"，措辞相较3月进一步加重，同时认为失 业率和通胀双双上行的滞胀风险正在逐步增加，会议表态略偏"鹰派"。 在随后美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会上，"观望"一词被提及11次，"等待"共提到了22次，"关税"一词 则被提及超过20次。鲍威尔表示，特朗普政府的新政策仍在不断演变中，其对经济的影响仍然"高度不 确定"。如果已宣布的大幅提升关税持续实施，可能会导致通胀上升、经济增长放缓以及失业率上升。 这意味着美联储认为，在巨大的政策不确定性面前，观望等待或是当前的最优解，排除了预防式降息的 可能。 全球降息浪潮下 鲍威尔到底在怕啥？ 相比上次会议，此次美联储的会议声明淡化了净出口分项对于美国经济增长的负面影响，仍然强调美国 经济处于稳健的扩张状态。 但不可忽视的是，诸多数据已显示出美国经济增长的隐忧。关税政策的反噬作 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a challenging start to the year, with Q1 results not indicative of stronger underlying performance, suggesting an underlying EBITDA potential in the mid-seventy million dollars range [6][8] - Free cash flow guidance for the year has been reaffirmed despite lower EBITDA expectations, with a focus on improving cash flow conversion [7][29] - The company experienced a $10 million impact on earnings due to unplanned plant outages and adverse timing effects related to raw material costs [8][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubber segment volumes improved by 2.5% year-over-year and 13% sequentially, benefiting from contractual mandates and operational improvements in China [32] - Specialty segment volumes improved 3% sequentially but declined 2% year-over-year, indicating choppy demand particularly in the automotive coatings market [35][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. tire production was down low double-digit percentages in the first two months of the quarter, remaining significantly below pre-COVID levels [9] - The company noted that elevated tire imports into key markets continue to be a headwind for local tire manufacturing [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is positioned to benefit from the changing global trade paradigm, with tariffs expected to positively impact demand for domestic manufacturing [12][17] - A focus on operational reliability and efficiency improvements is underway, with plans to enhance maintenance and reduce equipment failures [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the increased likelihood of an economic recession but noted no pronounced weakening in order books at this time [7][20] - The company expects demand to improve in the second half of 2025 as tire imports are anticipated to slow and channel inventories are drawn down [15][52] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 CapEx spending expectations by $10 million, down to $150 million, reflecting a significant decrease from 2024 levels [30][39] - The company has repurchased $16 million worth of stock in Q1 and a total of $105 million since the inception of its buyback program [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of outages in Q1 - Management indicated that the $13 million impact from outages was primarily contained in Q1, with some costs related to fixed cost absorption and timing [44][48] Question: Expectations for Q2 earnings - Management expects a step-up in earnings in Q2, with the impact of lower oil prices and inventory revaluation being factored into guidance [50][52] Question: Timing of tariff benefits - Management anticipates seeing benefits from tariffs in the second half of 2025, contingent on demand recovery and inventory adjustments [56][58] Question: Specialty Black business inventory trends - Management noted that while there has been some cautious behavior from distributors, demand remains choppy rather than clear [61][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a challenging start to the year, with Q1 results not reflecting the stronger underlying performance and potential of the business [7] - Unplanned plant outages impacted productivity and absorption levels, masking at least $10 million of greater earnings power in Q1, suggesting an underlying EBITDA closer to the mid-$70 million range [10][11] - Overall volumes improved by 1% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, with the most significant improvements coming from low-margin regions [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Rubber segment saw a 2.5% volume improvement year-over-year and a 13% sequential improvement, benefiting from contractual mandates and operational improvements in China [35] - The Specialty segment characterized demand as choppy, with volumes improving 3% sequentially but declining 2% year-over-year [38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubber demand was off to a slow start, with U.S. tire production down low double-digit percentages in the first two months of the quarter, remaining below pre-COVID levels [11] - Elevated tire imports into key markets continued to be a headwind for local tire manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is taking protective measures to manage costs and bolster free cash flow in light of potential economic recession [8] - The changing global trade paradigm, including tariffs, is expected to benefit the carbon black industry and the company specifically [14][20] - The company is focused on improving operational reliability and efficiency, with plans to enhance maintenance and process yields [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the increased likelihood of an economic recession but noted no pronounced weakening in order books at this time [8] - The company expects demand inflection starting in the second half of 2025 as tire imports are anticipated to slow [18] - Management remains committed to delivering free cash flow and has reaffirmed guidance despite lower EBITDA expectations [32][43] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 CapEx spending expectations by $10 million, down to $150 million [33] - The company has repurchased $16 million worth of stock in Q1 and $105 million since the inception of the buyback program [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of outages in Q1 - Management indicated that the $13 million impact from outages was primarily contained in Q1, with some costs related to fixed cost absorption and timing [47][50] Question: Expectations for Q2 earnings - Management expects a step-up in earnings in Q2, with the impact of lower oil prices and inventory revaluation incorporated into guidance [51][55] Question: Timing of tariff benefits - Management anticipates seeing benefits from tariffs in the second half of 2025, with tire companies considering building more capacity in the U.S. [58][62] Question: Specialty Black business inventory drawdown - Management noted that distributors have slowed down a bit, indicating cautious behavior, but demand remains choppy [64] Question: Headwind from timing of input costs - Management mentioned that natural gas prices were a significant factor in Q1, but they do not expect this to be a recurring headline issue [71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a challenging start to the year, with Q1 results not indicative of stronger underlying performance, masking at least $10 million of greater earnings power [7][8] - Overall plant operations have improved sequentially, contributing favorably moving forward [9] - Free cash flow guidance for the year has been reaffirmed despite lower EBITDA guidance [30][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rubber segment volumes improved by 2.5% year over year and 13% sequentially, benefiting from contractual mandates and operational improvements in China [33] - Specialty segment volumes improved 3% sequentially but declined 2% year over year, with demand characterized as choppy [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. tire production was down low double-digit percentages in the first two months of the quarter, remaining dramatically below pre-COVID levels [10] - The company expects a demand inflection starting in the second half of 2025 as tire imports are anticipated to slow [16][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is taking protective measures to manage costs and bolster free cash flow in light of potential economic recession [7] - The ongoing shift in global trade policies is expected to benefit the carbon black industry and the company specifically [12][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the increased likelihood of an economic recession but does not see a pronounced weakening in order books at this time [7] - The company is optimistic about the structural benefits from the changing trade paradigm, which should positively affect demand for manufacturing in the U.S. and Europe [14][41] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its 2025 CapEx spending expectations by $10 million, down to $150 million [30] - The company has initiated programs to improve cash flow conversion, expecting working capital to be a source of cash in 2025 [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of outages in Q1 - Management indicated that the $13 million impact from outages was primarily contained in Q1, with some costs related to fixed cost absorption and timing [46][48] Question: Expectations for Q2 earnings - Management expects a step-up in earnings in Q2, despite a negative inventory adjustment due to lower oil prices [50][54] Question: Timing of tariff benefits - Management anticipates seeing benefits from tariffs in the second half of 2025, as tire companies are expected to shift capacity to the U.S. [61][66] Question: Specialty Black business inventory drawdown - Management noted that while there is some cautiousness from distributors, demand remains choppy, with no clear trends yet [66]

隔夜凌晨2点，美联储议息会议，如市场预期板，选择了按兵不动。此时的美股波动不大，毕竟大家已经消化了5月份美联储不降息的预期，但是随后鲍威 尔的讲话，让市场感到一丝不安。 在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔说了22次"wait"，啥意思？就是在川普的关税战情况下，其实鲍威尔也不知道未来美国的通胀会不会升高，升多高，万一6月份 大家没有谈拢真的将关税加这么高，会不会造成更严重的失业，甚至引发经济衰退，谁也说不准。 这就是为什么，川普炮轰鲍威尔，让其降息，甚至一度威胁要解雇他，鲍威尔都非常强硬的姿态回应。因为美联储工作的核心就是维护通胀和失业率稳 定。鲍威尔需要留下足够的"子弹（降息空间）"去应对未来可能发生的危机，就算迟一点应对也不愿意，提前降息可能会提前诱发危机诞生。 懂了吧，鲍威尔此时和你我一般无二，在川普面前，都需要走一步看一步。 大早上，川普发推表示在上午十点（北京时间今晚十点）公布一个大消息。目前媒体猜测，可能是会发布与其他国家关税谈判相关消息。目前，最有可能 得是英美之间会达成相应协议。 所以，黄金今天下午急速跳水，市场的避险情绪进一步减弱。在明天我们与老美在瑞士之间展开会谈，A股今天则进一步的走强。 来看一下深 ...