Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is deemed crucial for the U.S. economy by Stephen Milan, the nominee for the Federal Reserve Board [1][4] - Milan's potential dual role as a member of the Federal Reserve and as the Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers raises concerns about conflicts of interest and the impact on the Fed's independence [6][12] - The relationship between rising U.S. prices and the White House's tariff policy was a contentious topic during the Senate hearing, with Milan's stance provoking anger from Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren [6][7] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, amid ongoing efforts by the Trump administration to advance Milan's nomination and replace another board member, Lisa Cook [7] - The U.S. Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into Lisa Cook regarding potential false information in mortgage applications, which adds another layer of complexity to the Federal Reserve's governance [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with sectors such as consumption, photovoltaic equipment, banking, and securities performing well, while aerospace, communication equipment, semiconductors, and electronic chemicals lagged behind [1][2] - The current A-share market is benefiting from favorable internal and external policies, with abundant liquidity and a noticeable improvement in market funding, as evidenced by trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for several consecutive days [1] - Global allocation funds are flowing into the A-share market, with household savings accelerating their shift to capital markets, creating a continuous source of incremental funds [1] Group 2 - The market is under short-term pressure from overbought conditions, necessitating a technical adjustment, while liquidity remains a key foundation for the market [2] - Future market directions to watch include the potential for a second phase of a bull market with rapid sector rotation, focusing on areas with low valuations and improving economic conditions [2] - There is an expectation for policy signals to intensify in response to economic pressures in the second half of the year, particularly regarding supply-side measures that could catalyze cyclical sectors in the medium to long term [2]

Group 1 - The hiring pace in the U.S. slowed down in August, indicating a weakening labor demand [1][2] - ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in the private sector for August, which is about half of the previous month's increase and significantly below market expectations [1] - The construction sector added 16,000 jobs in August, while manufacturing and trade/transportation/utilities sectors saw job losses of 7,000 and 17,000 respectively [1] Group 2 - Challenger reported that U.S. companies announced only 1,494 new jobs in August, the lowest level for that month since 2009 [2] - Year-to-date, companies have announced 892,362 layoffs, the highest for the same period since 2020, with retail being heavily impacted [2] - The pharmaceutical sector announced 19,112 layoffs in August due to increased competition and a focus on high-margin products [2] Group 3 - The slowdown in hiring may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations, potentially leading to a more dovish stance if the labor market remains weak [3]

Core Insights - A dormant Bitcoin wallet, inactive for nearly 13 years, has been reactivated, revealing a holding of 479.44 BTC valued at approximately $53.56 million at current prices, with the wallet's only transaction being a transfer of 0.25 BTC worth about $28,000 [1][3] - The reactivation of this wallet highlights the divergent paths of early Bitcoin adopters, with potential scenarios including asset freezing due to lost private keys or intentional long-term storage strategies [3] - Bitcoin is currently experiencing price volatility, having recently dropped over 10.6% from its peak of $124,000 in August 2024, coinciding with historical trends indicating September is typically a weak month for crypto markets [3][4] Market Dynamics - Despite price pressures, only 9% of Bitcoin supply is currently at a loss, a significant improvement from over 25% during the 2022 bear market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [4] - The net realized profit/loss (NRPL) metric has surged to a monthly peak of $4.2 billion, suggesting a transformation in market sentiment and investment strategies [4] - The flow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has slowed, impacting price momentum, yet this has led to a concentration of funds in higher-quality holdings [6] Policy and Economic Factors - Macro-level policy expectations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are influencing the crypto market, with a lower interest rate environment likely to enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a risk asset [7] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policy changes and the ongoing innovation within the crypto ecosystem, such as Layer 2 solutions and institutional infrastructure improvements, will be crucial for Bitcoin's price recovery [9] Investment Tools - The XBIT Wallet offers multi-chain asset management capabilities, allowing users to efficiently manage their holdings and respond to market fluctuations, whether in bullish or bearish conditions [9]

Group 1 - Dow futures decreased by 0.02%, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.15% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.21% [1] - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has begun nationwide deliveries of the new Model Y L and the long-range Model 3, with the latter offering a range of 830 kilometers (CLTC) [1] - Tesla's stock rose by 1.37% following the delivery announcement [1] Group 2 - Salesforce reported Q2 earnings and revenue exceeding expectations, but the Q3 revenue forecast of $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion fell short of analyst expectations, leading to a 6.65% drop in its stock [2] - Google was fined €325 million ($381 million) by French data protection authorities for improper ad display to Gmail users, resulting in a 0.55% decline in its stock [2] - Bank of America lowered Figma's target price from $85 to $69 due to valuation concerns, causing Figma's stock to drop by 15.31% [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan Chase announced plans to launch its digital retail bank in Germany in the second quarter of 2026, following its UK launch in 2021 [3] - ConocoPhillips announced a global workforce reduction of 20% to 25% as part of a broader restructuring effort, with most layoffs expected to occur by 2025 [3] - Stephen Milan, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of monetary policy during his upcoming Senate hearing [3]

Group 1 - Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, responded to Trump's dismissal claims, asserting that her mortgage disclosures during the 2022 nomination process were complete and legally sound [1] - Cook's properties included a primary residence in Michigan, a secondary residence in Georgia, and a property in Massachusetts listed as both a current residence and rental [1] - Trump's allegations of fraud regarding Cook's mortgage applications are challenged by her legal team, emphasizing that such claims should have been addressed during the confirmation process rather than post-appointment [1] Group 2 - Cook has consistently aligned with Fed Chair Jerome Powell on monetary policy, maintaining the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December 2023, despite Trump's calls for aggressive rate cuts [2] - The case has raised significant concerns about the political independence of the Federal Reserve, with Trump's actions viewed as a challenge to the central bank's autonomy [2] - A decision on whether to issue a temporary injunction against Cook's dismissal is pending from a federal judge, which could have lasting implications for the Fed's personnel structure [2]

Group 1 - Central banks are expected to increase their gold and foreign exchange reserves over the next five years, with 72% anticipating a moderate rise, 17% expecting no change, and 6% predicting a significant decline [1] - Demand for gold continues to rise as central banks increase their holdings, leading to a favorable outlook for gold prices [1] - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds as the most sought-after asset by central banks, with total gold reserves approaching $4 trillion, exceeding the $3.8 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence erosion," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional demand for precious metals continues to drive prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is considering declaring a national housing emergency to address rising housing costs and declining supply, with urgency emphasized by Treasury Secretary Scott Basset [1][2]. Group 1: Housing Market Challenges - The U.S. real estate market is experiencing stagnation due to rising home purchase costs and decreased supply, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and increased prices for construction materials [1]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. has not declared a national housing emergency, highlighting the severity of the current housing environment [2]. Group 2: Government Response and Actions - Trump has consistently criticized the Federal Reserve for high interest rates, which he claims increase government financing costs and harm the real estate market [3]. - The government is exploring ways to regulate local building and zoning codes and reduce transaction costs, with a focus on housing affordability as a key pillar for the Republican agenda in the 2026 midterm elections [4]. - The administration is also looking into simplifying approval processes and encouraging standardized construction methods to boost housing supply and lower costs [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Rental prices are currently declining, which is crucial for Americans without property, and a decrease in interest rates is expected to increase real estate transactions and home sales [4].

Group 1 - The euro is currently trading at 1.1694 against the dollar, showing a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day, indicating a market in a consolidation phase with limited volatility and no clear directional signals [1] - Market sentiment is complex and somewhat contradictory, with many institutions predicting a relatively flat performance for the euro in the near term due to an "overbought" situation, as approximately $18 billion in net long positions are currently betting on a stronger euro [1][3] - The positioning structure in the market may limit the euro's upward momentum, especially if the dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts or policy statements, which could lead to profit-taking pressures on the euro [1][3] Group 2 - Traders' attitudes towards the dollar are becoming polarized, with reductions in short positions against the yen while increasing short positions against the pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar, indicating a selective approach rather than a broad bearish outlook on the dollar [3] - The euro-dollar pair is currently in a critical area of contention, facing multiple resistance levels that act as a "ceiling" on the exchange rate's rebound, with key resistance points at 1.1742, 1.1788, and the year-to-date high of 1.1830 [3][4] - The euro is in a wide-ranging consolidation zone, and without a significant breakthrough above any of the mentioned resistance levels, it is difficult to determine if a trend has formed, with short-term risks of a downward movement still present due to a lack of new positive stimuli [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝预计价格短期高位震荡 [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响建筑钢材总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂部分已停产或计划1月中旬左右停产，个别钢厂预计1月20日后停产，停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2][3] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [3] - 成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷致价格重心下移 [3] - 后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] 2.铝 - 宏观上投资者等待美国就业市场数据影响美联储货币政策预期，美联储降息预期升温等营造利多氛围，但国内政策托底传导至实际消费需时间 [2] - 9月氧化铝现货价格弱势运行，运行产能预计小幅增长，供应端运行产能稳中小增、产量微幅增长，9月铝水比例存回升预期，成本方面行业总成本变化小、高利润依旧 [3] - 需求端“金九银十”旺季临近，下游周度开工率复苏，铝型材龙头企业开工率环比提升1.5个百分点至52%，铝线缆行业开工率回升至63.8%，预计9月后开工率持续上行 [3] - 8月28日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存62.0万吨，较本周一增加0.4万吨，环比上周一增加2.4万吨，淡季累库与高铝价压制现货升水 [3] - 关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [4]